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title="Posts by Bill Butz">Bill Butz</a> (9)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=6" title="Posts by Carl Haub">Carl Haub</a> (6)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=11" title="Posts by Charlie Teller">Charlie Teller</a> (7)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=19" title="Posts by Charlotte Feldman-Jacobs">Charlotte Feldman-Jacobs</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=14" title="Posts by Deborah Mesce">Deborah Mesce</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=10" title="Posts by Eric Zuehlke">Eric Zuehlke</a> (6)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=20" title="Posts by Farzaneh Roudi">Farzaneh Roudi</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=13" title="Posts by Jason Bremner">Jason Bremner</a> (8)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=16" title="Posts by Jay Gribble">Jay Gribble</a> (5)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=18" title="Posts by Karin Ringheim">Karin Ringheim</a> (5)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=17" title="Posts by Marissa Yeakey">Marissa Yeakey</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=12" title="Posts by Mark Mather">Mark Mather</a> (8)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=24" title="Posts by Marlene Lee">Marlene Lee</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=22" title="Posts by Mary Kent">Mary Kent</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=21" title="Posts by Nadwa Mossaad">Nadwa Mossaad</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?author=15" title="Posts by Victoria Ebin">Victoria Ebin</a> (2)</li></ul> </li> </ul> <ul> <li id="categories-1" class="widget widget_categories"><h2 class="widgettitle">Topics</h2> <ul> <li class="cat-item cat-item-1"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=1" title="blog on the PRB topic: Aging">Aging</a> (3) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-3"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=3" title="Blog on the PRB topic- Education">Education</a> (2) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-4"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=4" title="Blog on the PRB topic of Environment">Environment</a> (14) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-5"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=5" title="Blog on the PRB topic of Gender">Gender</a> (8) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-6"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=6" title="Blog on the PRB topic of HIV/AIDS">HIV/AIDS</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-7"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=7" title="Blog on the PRB Topic of Immigration/Migration">Immigration/Migration</a> (4) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-8"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=8" title="Blog on the topic of Income/Poverty">Income/Poverty</a> (11) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-9 current-cat"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=9" title="Blog on the topic of Marriage Family">Marriage/Family</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-10"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="Blog about the topic of Population basics">Population Basics</a> (18) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-31"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=31" title="View all posts filed under PRB News">PRB News</a> (27) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-12"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=12" title="Blog on the topic of reproductive health ">Reproductive Health</a> (17) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-13"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?cat=13" title="Blog on the topic of Youth">Youth</a> (6) </li> </ul> </li> <li id="tag_cloud-2" class="widget widget_tag_cloud"><h2 class="widgettitle">Tags</h2> <div><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=burkina-faso" class="tag-link-61" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">Burkina Faso</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=census" class="tag-link-39" title="9 topics" style="font-size: 19.136363636364pt;">census</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=cities" class="tag-link-68" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">cities</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=climate-change" class="tag-link-69" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 10.863636363636pt;">climate change</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=contraception" class="tag-link-53" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">contraception</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=education" class="tag-link-3" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">Education</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=engage" class="tag-link-55" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">ENGAGE</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=environment" class="tag-link-4" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">Environment</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=ethiopia" class="tag-link-41" title="5 topics" style="font-size: 15.636363636364pt;">Ethiopia</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=europe" class="tag-link-46" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">Europe</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=evaluation" class="tag-link-48" title="3 topics" style="font-size: 12.772727272727pt;">evaluation</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=family-planning" class="tag-link-27" title="14 topics" style="font-size: 22pt;">family planning</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=fertility" class="tag-link-45" title="3 topics" style="font-size: 12.772727272727pt;">fertility</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=food" class="tag-link-32" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 10.863636363636pt;">food</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=gender-based-violence" class="tag-link-75" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 10.863636363636pt;">gender-based violence</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=health" class="tag-link-73" title="3 topics" style="font-size: 12.772727272727pt;">health</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=hivaids" class="tag-link-6" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">HIV/AIDS</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=india" class="tag-link-58" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 10.863636363636pt;">India</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=iran" class="tag-link-65" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">Iran</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=journalism" class="tag-link-42" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 10.863636363636pt;">journalism</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=kenya" class="tag-link-54" title="7 topics" style="font-size: 17.545454545455pt;">Kenya</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=mali" class="tag-link-62" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">Mali</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=malnutrition" class="tag-link-33" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 10.863636363636pt;">malnutrition</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=media" class="tag-link-59" title="7 topics" style="font-size: 17.545454545455pt;">media</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=migrants" class="tag-link-36" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">migrants</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=nano" class="tag-link-63" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">Nano</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=pakistan" class="tag-link-52" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">Pakistan</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=photos" class="tag-link-51" title="3 topics" style="font-size: 12.772727272727pt;">photos</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=policy" class="tag-link-30" title="3 topics" style="font-size: 12.772727272727pt;">policy</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=population-growth" class="tag-link-38" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">population growth</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=poverty" class="tag-link-29" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 10.863636363636pt;">poverty</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=prb-in-the-field" class="tag-link-50" title="13 topics" style="font-size: 21.522727272727pt;">PRB in the field</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=recession" class="tag-link-67" title="5 topics" style="font-size: 15.636363636364pt;">recession</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=rwanda" class="tag-link-56" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 10.863636363636pt;">Rwanda</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=senegal" class="tag-link-60" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">Senegal</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=social-security" class="tag-link-84" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 10.863636363636pt;">social security</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=statistics" class="tag-link-44" title="4 topics" style="font-size: 14.363636363636pt;">statistics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=tanzania" class="tag-link-49" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">tanzania</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=transportation" class="tag-link-64" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">transportation</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=turkey" class="tag-link-57" title="1 topic" style="font-size: 8pt;">Turkey</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=u-s" class="tag-link-83" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 10.863636363636pt;">U.S</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/?tag=us" class="tag-link-40" title="12 topics" style="font-size: 20.886363636364pt;">U.S.</a> <a 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In the United States, there were two notable 20<sup>th</sup> Century baby “busts,” one <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"></a>during the Great Depression that bottomed out at a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per woman in 1936 and another during the inflationary “oil shock” decade of the 1970s when the TFR set an all-time low record of 1.7 that still stands. In Sweden, rather wild swings in the TFR seem to follow trends in employment and in Eastern Europe, the bottom fell out of the TFR as the breakup of the Soviet bloc destroyed economies. </p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a></p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.jpg" title="us-fertility-rate.jpg"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"></a></p> <p style="text-align: center"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"></a></p> <p align="center"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"></a></p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"></a></p> <p style="text-align: center"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"></a></p> <p align="center"><strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"><img width="463" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429im_/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" alt="us-fertility-rate.gif" height="268"/></a> </strong></p> <p align="center"><strong>S</strong><strong>ource:</strong> National Center for Health Statistics (click to view full size).</p> <p align="left">So, will it happen this time? In the 1970s, there were quite a few <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"></a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/us-fertility-rate.gif" title="us-fertility-rate.gif"></a>things going on which makes a direct connection between the economy and TFR decline a bit murky. The TFR had been dropping rapidly since the late 1960s, possibly connected with the feminist movement as women looked to careers beyond the traditional nurse, teacher, and secretary. And Roe vs. Wade, which<span> </span>confirmed the legality of abortion on demand, passed in a number of states in Jan., 1973. The Depression decline might seem more clear, but the TFR had been falling throughout the Roaring Twenties.</p> <p>Perhaps the current period will provide a better laboratory. The TFR has been relatively steady at 2.0 to 2.1 for about a decade and there have been no major events such as Roe vs. Wade. Unemployment is rising and the airwaves flood our living rooms and cars with one bit of scary news after another. Bad news travels fast and furiously these days, much more so than in the 1970s and 1930s.</p> <p>For more, see articles from <em><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-tue-recession-babies-dec23,0,6775833.story">The Chicago Tribune</a></em>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://marketplace.publicradio.org//display/web/2009/01/01/pm_baby_bust/?refid=0">American Public Media’s Marketplace</a>, and the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://blogs.psychologytoday.com/blog/singletons/200901/is-having-babies-recession-proof"><em>Psychology Today</em> blog</a>.</p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=34&title=Will the Economic Downturn Lower Birth Rates?" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div> <div class="alignleft"></div> <div class="alignright"></div> </div> <br/> </div> </td></tr></table></center>  <br/><br/> <div align="center"> <div align="center" id="ftr"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer2.gif" width="3" height="23" align="right"/><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer1.gif" width="3" height="23" align="left"/><span class="footertext">Services: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://www.prb.org/Home/EmailSignup.aspx">Get E-Mail News</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://www.prb.org/Join.aspx">Join/Renew Membership</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://www.prb.org/Donate.aspx">Donate</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://www.prb.org/Bookstore.aspx">Bookstore</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://www.prb.org/Home/Contact.aspx">Contact</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://www.prb.org/SpanishContent.aspx">Español</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://www.prb.org/FrenchContent.aspx">Français</a></span></div> <span class="footer2text"><b>Copyright 2007, Population Reference Bureau.</b> All rights reserved. • <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/http://www.prb.org/Home/Privacy.aspx">Privacy Policy</a></span><br/> <span class="footer2text">1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW • Suite 520 • Washington, DC 20009-5728 • USA <br/> <b>Phone:</b> 800-877-9881 • <b>Fax:</b> 202-328-3937 • <b>E-mail:</b> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100725214429/mailto:popref@prb.org">popref@prb.org</a></span><br/> </div>  </div>  <script type="text/javascript"> var gaJsHost = (("https:" == document.location.protocol) ? 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