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These Washington heavyweights fear not","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","height":450,"url":"https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.7852%2C$multiply_0.7554%2C$ratio_1.777778%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_111/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/6eea187055834051ca9669cb5a430ebb6c3ba4cb","width":800},"keywords":"","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https://www.watoday.com.au/world/north-america/can-trump-2-0-defuse-the-nuclear-threat-these-washington-heavyweights-fear-not-20241108-p5kp0n.html","@type":"WebPage"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","height":"628","url":"https://www.watoday.com.au/watoday.png","width":"1200"},"name":"WAtoday"},"isAccessibleForFree":false,"hasPart":{"@type":"WebPageElement","isAccessibleForFree":false,"cssSelector":".paywall"},"isPartOf":{"@type":["CreativeWork","Product"],"name":"WAtoday","productID":"watoday.com.au:webonly"}}</script><title data-rh="true">US election results 2024: Can Trump defuse world’s nuclear 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2024</a></li></ul><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"item":{"@id":"https://www.watoday.com.au/world","name":"World"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"item":{"@id":"https://www.watoday.com.au/world/north-america","name":"North America"}},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"item":{"@id":"https://www.watoday.com.au/topic/us-votes-2024-6fsn","name":"US Votes 2024"}}]}</script></div><div class="_379lD"><div class="_3la2-"><h3 class="_2DnPg">Opinion</h3><h1 data-testid="headline" itemProp="headline">Can Trump 2.0 defuse the nuclear threat? These Washington heavyweights fear not</h1></div><div class="_3Q4pX"><div class="_1edoU"><div class="_1bFgK"><h5 itemProp="author" itemscope="" itemType="http://schema.org/Person"><span><span data-testid="byline"><a href="/by/peter-hartcher-hve0w" title="Articles by Peter Hartcher">Peter Hartcher</a></span></span></h5><span class="_2wzd6" hidden="">Political and international editor</span></div><div class="_3Jb6E"> <span class="_2xetH"><time class="_2_zR-" data-testid="datetime" dateTime="2024-11-09T02:00:00+08:00">November 9, 2024 — 2.00am</time></span></div></div></div></div></header><section class="_3OhA4 Lspjx"><div class="_2h56q _2bGxr"><div class="_3J1te"><div class="_3kTtc"> <span class="_2xetH"><time class="_2_zR-" data-testid="datetime" dateTime="2024-11-09T02:00:00+08:00">November 9, 2024 — 2.00am</time></span></div></div></div><div class="_2CSKo noPrint"><div class="_1KqZ_"><div class="hLTvJ"><button aria-checked="false" aria-describedby="saveTooltip" aria-label="Save article to read later" class="_31ZN0" role="switch" type="button"><svg aria-hidden="true" class="QMY9O _11R7m" focusable="false" height="1em" width="1em"><use xlink:href="#icon-save"></use></svg><span class="_3-fU6">Save</span></button><div aria-hidden="true" class="_1lwFz uXbxr" id="saveTooltip" role="tooltip"><button>Log in</button>, <a data-testid="login-register" href="https://watoday.myfairfax.com.au/channel/cWvEleexy48f-PI5-jlBnw/members/signups/new?callback_uri=">register</a> or <a href="https://subscribe.watoday.com.au/?promote_channel=HI_HL_GNL">subscribe</a> to save articles for later.</div><div><div aria-hidden="true" class="_1lwFz WUf_a _1pHo1" id="onboardingTooltip" role="tooltip"><h3>Save articles for later</h3><p>Add articles to your saved list and come back to them any time.</p><button class="_2YSi8 _17BTN _3_hLE" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="save onboarding" data-ffx-event-label="got it - part 1" data-ffx-hittype="event">Got it</button></div></div></div><div class="_2Cn91"><div class="_2KkCz"><button class="_30X7v _2-NUy" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="component" data-ffx-event-label="font size normal" data-ffx-event-value="0" data-ffx-hittype="event">Normal text size</button><button class="_3Rq_0" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="component" data-ffx-event-label="font size large" data-ffx-event-value="0" data-ffx-hittype="event">Larger text size</button><button class="_3VkdU" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="component" data-ffx-event-label="font size extra large" data-ffx-event-value="0" data-ffx-hittype="event">Very large text size</button></div></div></div></div></section><section class="_1Rw6X" data-testid="article-body-top"><aside class="_2GZaf"><div class="_1q-_I _3sCHz"><div class="container"><div class="adWrapper _2UMq- noPrint" data-testid="ad"><small class="_3ToRr">Advertisement</small><div class="" id="adspot-160x600_300x250_300x600-pos2-desktop"></div></div></div></div></aside><div class="_1ysFk" data-testid="article-body"><div><div class="_5JLqO"><div class="_1Ld7U" id="beyondwords-player"></div><div class="_3Fhwk" data-testid="showPlayerOverlay"></div></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>Bob Woodward is doing his best to remain optimistic in the face of an impending second Donald Trump presidency. “Don’t give up on America’s democracy!”</p><p>But when the topic turns to the president’s unique responsibility for US nuclear strategy, his sunny outlook grows dim.</p><figure class="_3ujPS _3g3zI _4vIBa _2XZQH" data-testid="image"><div aria-label="enlarge image" class="_1lwW_" role="button" tabindex="0"><picture class=""><source media="(min-width: 1024px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.171%2C$multiply_0.6988%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_52/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/7c2723a87f0cf9c08391bf2e6c4761df8ecada7a, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.171%2C$multiply_1.3975%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_52/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/7c2723a87f0cf9c08391bf2e6c4761df8ecada7a 2x" height="417" width="740"/><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.171%2C$multiply_0.7252%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_52/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/7c2723a87f0cf9c08391bf2e6c4761df8ecada7a, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.171%2C$multiply_1.4504%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_52/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/7c2723a87f0cf9c08391bf2e6c4761df8ecada7a 2x" height="433" width="768"/><img alt="Illustration by Simon Letch." src="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.171%2C$multiply_0.5855%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_52/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/7c2723a87f0cf9c08391bf2e6c4761df8ecada7a" height="349" width="620" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.171%2C$multiply_0.5855%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_52/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/7c2723a87f0cf9c08391bf2e6c4761df8ecada7a, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.171%2C$multiply_1.1709%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_52/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/7c2723a87f0cf9c08391bf2e6c4761df8ecada7a 2x"/></picture></div><figcaption class="_3CZmy"><p><span class="_2Li3P">Illustration by Simon Letch.</span><cite class="ojLwA"><span class="_30ROC">Credit: </span> </cite></p></figcaption></figure><p>“It’s frightening,” says the noted American journalist and close student of the last 10 US presidents. “We are all walking on eggshells,” Woodward tells me. “Trump is totally unpredictable, he never plans, he operates on instinct.”</p><p>Not necessarily because he fears that Trump will recklessly fire off atomic weapons but because he worries about Trump’s ability to deter other powers from doing so.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>Woodward, whose initial fame was in breaking the Watergate stories with co-author Carl Bernstein, has interviewed Trump dozens of times over 35 years and chronicled his political career in four books ripe with insider anecdotes.</p><p>Woodward was most impressed with Joe Biden’s management of the nuclear threat from Russia two years ago when Vladimir Putin was threatening to attack Ukraine with a tactical, or battlefield, nuclear weapon. He sets out in detail in his new book, <em>War</em>, how Biden’s administration confronted Moscow, including a phone call from US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu:</p><p>“It wouldn’t matter how small the nuclear weapon is,” Austin told Shoigu, according to the transcript of the call that Woodward obtained. “If you do this, it would be the first use of nuclear weapons anywhere in the world in three-quarters of a century, and it could set in motion events that you cannot control and we cannot control.”</p><figure class="_3ujPS _3x3-4 RMwbY _2XZQH" data-testid="image"><div aria-label="enlarge image" class="_1lwW_" role="button" tabindex="0"><picture class=""><source media="(min-width: 1024px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.378%2C$multiply_0.9788%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/fdb38d03f058efb9283054d9bf9c8c3549b111e7, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.378%2C$multiply_1.9577%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/fdb38d03f058efb9283054d9bf9c8c3549b111e7 2x" height="494" width="740"/><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.378%2C$multiply_1.0159%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/fdb38d03f058efb9283054d9bf9c8c3549b111e7, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.378%2C$multiply_2.0317%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/fdb38d03f058efb9283054d9bf9c8c3549b111e7 2x" height="512" width="768"/><img alt="Bob Woodward: “There is nothing steady and there is nothing purposeful in Donald Trump’s leadership.”" loading="lazy" src="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.378%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/fdb38d03f058efb9283054d9bf9c8c3549b111e7" height="390" width="584" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.378%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/fdb38d03f058efb9283054d9bf9c8c3549b111e7, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.378%2C$multiply_1.545%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/fdb38d03f058efb9283054d9bf9c8c3549b111e7 2x"/></picture></div><figcaption class="_3CZmy"><p><span class="_2Li3P">Bob Woodward: “There is nothing steady and there is nothing purposeful in Donald Trump’s leadership.”</span><cite class="ojLwA"><span class="_30ROC">Credit: </span>AP</cite></p></figcaption></figure><p>The US would review all the self-imposed restraints it had imposed in supporting Ukraine’s war effort, Austin told him.</p></div></div></div></section><div class="_1FVfK"><div class="container"><div class="adWrapper _2UMq- noPrint" data-testid="ad"><small class="_3ToRr">Advertisement</small><div class="" id="adspot-728x90_970x250-pos3-desktop"></div></div></div></div><section class="vPaWe" data-testid="article-body-bottom"><div class="_1ysFk"><div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>Separately, Biden called China’s President Xi Jinping to enlist his help. Beijing’s economic support keeps Russia solvent through its war. So, Xi’s opinion matters in the Kremlin.</p><p>“If Putin were to break the seal on nuclear use, that would be an enormous event for the world,” Biden told Xi, according to the book. China’s president agreed and undertook to warn Putin off. He did so publicly when he said: “Nuclear wars must not be fought.”</p><p>America’s Cold War-era plans for nuclear and conventional escalation with the Soviet Union were reworked and refitted for war with Putin’s Russia.</p><p>Woodward says he was shocked to learn that, during this episode, the US intelligence assessment of the risk that Putin would actually use a battlefield nuke had started at a 10 per cent chance but peaked at 50 per cent. Putin, of course, ultimately did not act on his threat.</p><p>The Biden administration showed “unique, steady, purposeful, informed leadership” in handling the risk from Russia, says Woodward. “It’s a road map for how you avoid a nuclear catastrophe.”</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>He adds: “There is nothing steady and there is nothing purposeful in Donald Trump’s leadership. He’s focused on himself and his own instinct.”</p><figure class="_3ujPS _3x3-4 RMwbY _2XZQH" data-testid="image"><div aria-label="enlarge image" class="_1lwW_" role="button" tabindex="0"><picture class=""><source media="(min-width: 1024px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_0.9788%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/8a19963673fd6149d8ba3eab6007c5f1dc26d12a, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_1.9577%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/8a19963673fd6149d8ba3eab6007c5f1dc26d12a 2x" height="494" width="740"/><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_1.0159%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/8a19963673fd6149d8ba3eab6007c5f1dc26d12a, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_2.0317%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/8a19963673fd6149d8ba3eab6007c5f1dc26d12a 2x" height="512" width="768"/><img alt="Trump’s former national security advisor John Bolton: “He has neuron flashes, not thought processes – he’s ad hoc, episodic and transactional.”" loading="lazy" src="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/8a19963673fd6149d8ba3eab6007c5f1dc26d12a" height="390" width="584" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/8a19963673fd6149d8ba3eab6007c5f1dc26d12a, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.092%2C$multiply_1.545%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/8a19963673fd6149d8ba3eab6007c5f1dc26d12a 2x"/></picture></div><figcaption class="_3CZmy"><p><span class="_2Li3P">Trump’s former national security advisor John Bolton: “He has neuron flashes, not thought processes – he’s ad hoc, episodic and transactional.”</span><cite class="ojLwA"><span class="_30ROC">Credit: </span>Louise Kennerley</cite></p></figcaption></figure><p>But John Bolton was less impressed with Biden’s performance. The hawkish veteran diplomat who served as Trump’s national security adviser for 13 months says the Russian threat to deploy a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine was never confirmed to be real.</p><p>“There was never any overhead [satellite] evidence that Putin was beginning to move his nuclear forces around,” Bolton tells me. “I don’t think they were serious threats.”</p><p>But Bolton, who emerged from the Trump White House as a fierce critic of Trump, agrees with Woodward in his assessment of the once and future president as dangerously erratic: “He doesn’t do policy in the conventional way. He has neuron flashes, not thought processes – he’s ad hoc, episodic and transactional.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>“For example, when we met Kim Jong Un in Singapore, out of nowhere, Trump tells him, ‘I’m not going to hold the annual war games with South Korea.’” These exercises are designed to improve military readiness and to deter aggression from Pyongyang. “It was a unilateral concession; we got nothing for it, and it undermined the confidence and preparedness of our allies.”</p><p>Biden restored the annual exercises.</p><figure class="_3ujPS _3x3-4 RMwbY _2XZQH" data-testid="image"><div aria-label="enlarge image" class="_1lwW_" role="button" tabindex="0"><picture class=""><source media="(min-width: 1024px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.339%2C$multiply_0.9788%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/353cf1129d124fe38e994ee2eff4888e904582dd, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.339%2C$multiply_1.9577%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/353cf1129d124fe38e994ee2eff4888e904582dd 2x" height="494" width="740"/><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.339%2C$multiply_1.0159%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/353cf1129d124fe38e994ee2eff4888e904582dd, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.339%2C$multiply_2.0317%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/353cf1129d124fe38e994ee2eff4888e904582dd 2x" height="512" width="768"/><img alt="Donald Trump told Bob Woodward how well he understood the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un." loading="lazy" src="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.339%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/353cf1129d124fe38e994ee2eff4888e904582dd" height="390" width="584" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.339%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/353cf1129d124fe38e994ee2eff4888e904582dd, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.339%2C$multiply_1.545%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/353cf1129d124fe38e994ee2eff4888e904582dd 2x"/></picture></div><figcaption class="_3CZmy"><p><span class="_2Li3P">Donald Trump told Bob Woodward how well he understood the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.</span><cite class="ojLwA"><span class="_30ROC">Credit: </span>AP</cite></p></figcaption></figure><p>Woodward has his own example of Trump’s towering faith in his own instincts in dealing with Kim. <em>The Washington Post</em> journalist recalls Trump telling him how well he understood the North Korean dictator. “He’s very smart,” said Trump. “But I said, ‘The CIA said he’s stupid.’”</p><p>Trump contradicted him and declared him to be very smart. “How do you know?” inquired Woodward. “I know – only I know,” replied the then-president, who had declared his “love” for “Little Rocket Man”.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>Woodward, reasonably enough, thinks this claim absurd. “Where’s the stability? Where’s the plan? Where’s the team? Where’s he going to get advice from? If you were worried, notch it up to 10 factor.”</p><div class="ymInT _3uJpn _3by58 noPrint"><span class="_2wzgv D5idv _3lVFK"><span class="_29Qt8"></span><span class="_3qqDc">Loading</span></span></div><p>But there is an obvious rejoinder to the claim that Trump is a particular nuclear risk: he’s already served a term as president without nuclear incident. Where was the crisis?</p><p>It’s true that his record of nuclear diplomacy is unimpressive; Trump strutted into a meeting with Kim, claiming that he’d solve the problem of North Korea’s nuclear program, yet the net result was that Kim only intensified his nuclear and missile development.</p><p>Trump ostentatiously withdrew the US from the nuclear deal with Iran under which the ayatollahs had stood down their uranium-enrichment capabilities, yet Tehran’s response has been to resume its enrichment and forge ahead with its nuclear ambitions.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>But no other president, including Joe Biden, has succeeded in halting the Kim dynasty’s advances.</p><p>And China is engaged in a major build-up of nuclear missiles, but Xi Jinping began planning this well before Trump was elected in 2016. By 2014, when Barack Obama was president, Xi issued secret orders to expand nuclear capability.</p><p>“Xi has overturned previous leaders’ constraints on the military’s nuclear modernisation, giving the military an important mandate to fast-track nuclear development,” writes Tong Zhao of the Carnegie Endowment.</p><p>Likewise, Trump can’t be blamed for Putin’s designs on Ukraine. Putin annexed Crimea in 2014 while Obama was president.</p><p>Biden himself has pinned the blame for Putin’s expanding ambitions on Obama. “They f---ed up in 2014,” Biden told a friend, according to <em>War</em>. Obama should have responded more forcefully to the Russian aggression. Said Biden: “That’s why we are here. We f---ed it up. Barack never took Putin seriously.”</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><div class="ymInT _3uJpn _3by58 noPrint"><span class="_2wzgv D5idv _3lVFK"><span class="_29Qt8"></span><span class="_3qqDc">Loading</span></span></div><p>Further, Biden has freshly undercut the credibility of his own threats to punish any nuclear use by Putin. Woodward’s book records that Biden privately had decided that the US would not unleash any nuclear response on Russia.</p><p>So Trump’s record of nuclear diplomacy and deterrence of America’s enemies is unimpressive, but so was that of the Democrats who went before and after him<strong>.</strong> And there was no nuclear incident on Trump’s watch.</p><p>The concern about Trump rests on his chaotic and erratic method of decision-making and his personal preference for dictators over democrats – for America’s traditional enemies over its allies.</p><p>Right now, says Woodward, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky would be feeling “terrified” at the prospect of Trump favouring Putin in a prospective peace negotiation, while Putin’s cronies are <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/us-election-2024-vladimir-putin-congratulates-donald-trump-on-victory/64c5807e-62c7-4ac0-bff0-5d17dc759e79" rel="noopener" target="_blank">ecstatic</a> at Trump’s victory.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>But there is a new factor that Trump will have to confront. “All of US Cold War nuclear strategy was bipolar – it was the US and the USSR,” Bolton says. “With China’s rapid nuclear build-up, [the] strategy will have to be tripolar.”</p><p>So, a president given to simplistic plans and impulses must deal with a whole new level of nuclear complexity for which neither he nor the US system is yet equipped. Woodward need not fear contradiction on this point: “This is such a dangerous time.”</p><p><strong>Peter Hartcher is international editor.</strong></p></div></div><div class="noPrint"><div></div><div></div></div><div id="embedded-feedback"></div><div class="_22FRK _2spQv"><section class="aKWhn noPrint" id="endOfArticle"><div class="dLGbc"><div class="hLTvJ"><button aria-checked="false" aria-describedby="saveTooltip" aria-label="Save article to read later" class="_31ZN0" role="switch" type="button"><svg aria-hidden="true" class="QMY9O _11R7m" focusable="false" height="1em" width="1em"><use xlink:href="#icon-save"></use></svg><span class="_3-fU6">Save</span></button><div aria-hidden="true" class="_1lwFz uXbxr" id="saveTooltip" role="tooltip"><button>Log in</button>, <a data-testid="login-register" href="https://watoday.myfairfax.com.au/channel/cWvEleexy48f-PI5-jlBnw/members/signups/new?callback_uri=">register</a> or <a 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America\"],\"categoryId\":78,\"asset\":{\"about\":\"A president given to simplistic plans and impulses must now deal with a whole new level of nuclear complexity for which neither he nor the US system is yet equipped.\",\"allowComments\":true,\"body\":\"<p>Bob Woodward is doing his best to remain optimistic in the face of an impending second Donald Trump presidency. \\u201CDon\\u2019t give up on America\\u2019s democracy!\\u201D</p><p>But when the topic turns to the president\\u2019s unique responsibility for US nuclear strategy, his sunny outlook grows dim.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"4d87c658858ee3aa7923cc35d4e8dc113b2c4df6\\\"></x-placeholder><p>\\u201CIt\\u2019s frightening,\\u201D says the noted American journalist and close student of the last 10 US presidents. \\u201CWe are all walking on eggshells,\\u201D Woodward tells me. \\u201CTrump is totally unpredictable, he never plans, he operates on instinct.\\u201D</p><p>Not necessarily because he fears that Trump will recklessly fire off atomic weapons but because he worries about Trump\\u2019s ability to deter other powers from doing so.</p><p>Woodward, whose initial fame was in breaking the Watergate stories with co-author Carl Bernstein, has interviewed Trump dozens of times over 35 years and chronicled his political career in four books ripe with insider anecdotes.</p><p>Woodward was most impressed with Joe Biden\\u2019s management of the nuclear threat from Russia two years ago when Vladimir Putin was threatening to attack Ukraine with a tactical, or battlefield, nuclear weapon. He sets out in detail in his new book, <em>War</em>, how Biden\\u2019s administration confronted Moscow, including a phone call from US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu:</p><p>\\u201CIt wouldn\\u2019t matter how small the nuclear weapon is,\\u201D Austin told Shoigu, according to the transcript of the call that Woodward obtained. \\u201CIf you do this, it would be the first use of nuclear weapons anywhere in the world in three-quarters of a century, and it could set in motion events that you cannot control and we cannot control.\\u201D</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"ac7b14f8f7beb8b0519c20ef1be07f2e1500df3e\\\"></x-placeholder><p>The US would review all the self-imposed restraints it had imposed in supporting Ukraine\\u2019s war effort, Austin told him.</p><p>Separately, Biden called China\\u2019s President Xi Jinping to enlist his help. Beijing\\u2019s economic support keeps Russia solvent through its war. So, Xi\\u2019s opinion matters in the Kremlin.</p><p>\\u201CIf Putin were to break the seal on nuclear use, that would be an enormous event for the world,\\u201D Biden told Xi, according to the book. China\\u2019s president agreed and undertook to warn Putin off. He did so publicly when he said: \\u201CNuclear wars must not be fought.\\u201D</p><p>America\\u2019s Cold War-era plans for nuclear and conventional escalation with the Soviet Union were reworked and refitted for war with Putin\\u2019s Russia.</p><p>Woodward says he was shocked to learn that, during this episode, the US intelligence assessment of the risk that Putin would actually use a battlefield nuke had started at a 10 per cent chance but peaked at 50 per cent. Putin, of course, ultimately did not act on his threat.</p><p>The Biden administration showed \\u201Cunique, steady, purposeful, informed leadership\\u201D in handling the risk from Russia, says Woodward. \\u201CIt\\u2019s a road map for how you avoid a nuclear catastrophe.\\u201D</p><p>He adds: \\u201CThere is nothing steady and there is nothing purposeful in Donald Trump\\u2019s leadership. He\\u2019s focused on himself and his own instinct.\\u201D</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"33fbecfcd97524e558479ad2c1c4a34aa288b2d8\\\"></x-placeholder><p>But John Bolton was less impressed with Biden\\u2019s performance. The hawkish veteran diplomat who served as Trump\\u2019s national security adviser for 13 months says the Russian threat to deploy a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine was never confirmed to be real.</p><p>\\u201CThere was never any overhead [satellite] evidence that Putin was beginning to move his nuclear forces around,\\u201D Bolton tells me. \\u201CI don\\u2019t think they were serious threats.\\u201D</p><p>But Bolton, who emerged from the Trump White House as a fierce critic of Trump, agrees with Woodward in his assessment of the once and future president as dangerously erratic: \\u201CHe doesn\\u2019t do policy in the conventional way. He has neuron flashes, not thought processes \\u2013 he\\u2019s ad hoc, episodic and transactional.</p><p>\\u201CFor example, when we met Kim Jong Un in Singapore, out of nowhere, Trump tells him, \\u2018I\\u2019m not going to hold the annual war games with South Korea.\\u2019\\u201D These exercises are designed to improve military readiness and to deter aggression from Pyongyang. \\u201CIt was a unilateral concession; we got nothing for it, and it undermined the confidence and preparedness of our allies.\\u201D</p><p>Biden restored the annual exercises.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"7c43fe079f6fd5abe66a42fbb5836d30d7148756\\\"></x-placeholder><p>Woodward has his own example of Trump\\u2019s towering faith in his own instincts in dealing with Kim. <em>The Washington Post</em> journalist recalls Trump telling him how well he understood the North Korean dictator. \\u201CHe\\u2019s very smart,\\u201D said Trump. \\u201CBut I said, \\u2018The CIA said he\\u2019s stupid.\\u2019\\u201D</p><p>Trump contradicted him and declared him to be very smart. \\u201CHow do you know?\\u201D inquired Woodward. \\u201CI know \\u2013 only I know,\\u201D replied the then-president, who had declared his \\u201Clove\\u201D for \\u201CLittle Rocket Man\\u201D.</p><p>Woodward, reasonably enough, thinks this claim absurd. \\u201CWhere\\u2019s the stability? Where\\u2019s the plan? Where\\u2019s the team? Where\\u2019s he going to get advice from? If you were worried, notch it up to 10 factor.\\u201D</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"fb30f1cdcbc1e43c580a6c3bdec113dfdd04da79\\\"></x-placeholder><p>But there is an obvious rejoinder to the claim that Trump is a particular nuclear risk: he\\u2019s already served a term as president without nuclear incident. Where was the crisis?</p><p>It\\u2019s true that his record of nuclear diplomacy is unimpressive; Trump strutted into a meeting with Kim, claiming that he\\u2019d solve the problem of North Korea\\u2019s nuclear program, yet the net result was that Kim only intensified his nuclear and missile development.</p><p>Trump ostentatiously withdrew the US from the nuclear deal with Iran under which the ayatollahs had stood down their uranium-enrichment capabilities, yet Tehran\\u2019s response has been to resume its enrichment and forge ahead with its nuclear ambitions.</p><p>But no other president, including Joe Biden, has succeeded in halting the Kim dynasty\\u2019s advances.</p><p>And China is engaged in a major build-up of nuclear missiles, but Xi Jinping began planning this well before Trump was elected in 2016. By 2014, when Barack Obama was president, Xi issued secret orders to expand nuclear capability.</p><p>\\u201CXi has overturned previous leaders\\u2019 constraints on the military\\u2019s nuclear modernisation, giving the military an important mandate to fast-track nuclear development,\\u201D writes Tong Zhao of the Carnegie Endowment.</p><p>Likewise, Trump can\\u2019t be blamed for Putin\\u2019s designs on Ukraine. Putin annexed Crimea in 2014 while Obama was president.</p><p>Biden himself has pinned the blame for Putin\\u2019s expanding ambitions on Obama. \\u201CThey f---ed up in 2014,\\u201D Biden told a friend, according to <em>War</em>. Obama should have responded more forcefully to the Russian aggression. Said Biden: \\u201CThat\\u2019s why we are here. We f---ed it up. Barack never took Putin seriously.\\u201D</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"d0d64fbf362f1763dd8369fbc920466869529705\\\"></x-placeholder><p>Further, Biden has freshly undercut the credibility of his own threats to punish any nuclear use by Putin. Woodward\\u2019s book records that Biden privately had decided that the US would not unleash any nuclear response on Russia.</p><p>So Trump\\u2019s record of nuclear diplomacy and deterrence of America\\u2019s enemies is unimpressive, but so was that of the Democrats who went before and after him<strong>.</strong> And there was no nuclear incident on Trump\\u2019s watch.</p><p>The concern about Trump rests on his chaotic and erratic method of decision-making and his personal preference for dictators over democrats \\u2013 for America\\u2019s traditional enemies over its allies.</p><p>Right now, says Woodward, Ukraine\\u2019s Volodymyr Zelensky would be feeling \\u201Cterrified\\u201D at the prospect of Trump favouring Putin in a prospective peace negotiation, while Putin\\u2019s cronies are <x-placeholder id=\\\"97941efcf0aef9505095f6584b37a79d07c75654\\\"></x-placeholder> at Trump\\u2019s victory.</p><p>But there is a new factor that Trump will have to confront. \\u201CAll of US Cold War nuclear strategy was bipolar \\u2013 it was the US and the USSR,\\u201D Bolton says. \\u201CWith China\\u2019s rapid nuclear build-up, [the] strategy will have to be tripolar.\\u201D</p><p>So, a president given to simplistic plans and impulses must deal with a whole new level of nuclear complexity for which neither he nor the US system is yet equipped. 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