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href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate" aria-haspopup="true" aria-controls="menu0Sub3" data-index="3">Climate</a> <nav aria-label="third level" class="third-level" data-toggle="false"> <div class="third-level-inner row"> <div role="heading" aria-level="2" class="third-level-header col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-sm-offset-1 col-lg-2 col-lg-offset-1">Climate</div> <ul id="menu0Sub3" class="col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-sm-offset-1 col-lg-8 col-lg-offset-0"> <li> <a href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/what-is-climate-change" data-index="0">What is climate change?</a> </li> <li> <a href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/causes-of-climate-change" data-index="1">Causes of climate change</a> </li> <li> <a href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/effects-of-climate-change" data-index="2">Effects of climate change</a> </li> <li> <a 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<li> <a href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea" data-index="0">Coast and Sea</a> </li> <li> <a href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/mountain" data-index="1">Mountain</a> </li> <li> <a class="last" href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather" data-index="2">Space Weather</a> </li> </ul> </div> </nav> </li> <li data-children="true" class="selected"> <a href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about" aria-haspopup="true" aria-controls="menu0Sub5" data-index="5">Learn about...</a> <nav aria-label="third level" class="third-level" data-toggle="false"> <div class="third-level-inner row"> <div role="heading" aria-level="2" class="third-level-header col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-sm-offset-1 col-lg-2 col-lg-offset-1">Learn about...</div> <ul id="menu0Sub5" class="col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-sm-offset-1 col-lg-8 col-lg-offset-0"> <li> <a href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/past-uk-weather-events" data-index="0">Past UK weather events</a> </li> <li> <a href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather" data-index="1">Weather</a> </li> <li class="selected"> <a href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/how-forecasts-are-made" data-index="2">How forecasts are made</a> </li> <li> <a class="last" href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/met-office-for-schools" data-index="3">Met Office for Schools</a> </li> </ul> </div> </nav> </li> </ul> <div role="heading" aria-level="1" data-menu-id="1" data-toggle="false" class="menu-header hide-lg"> <a aria-describedby="menu-desc-1" href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research">Research programmes <img role="presentation" 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shines on the earth globe, with continents represented by data symbols 0 and 1." alt="Viewed from space, the sun shines on the earth globe, with continents represented by data symbols 0 and 1." sizes="100vw"/> </div> <div class="wrap-3-col"> <div class="wrap-3-left"> <div class="advert-container"> <div class="draggable-advert skyLeft" id="skyLeft"></div> </div> </div> <div class="wrap-3-mid"> <div class="content-container"> <article class="has-edit-button content"> <div class="article-content"> <h1 class="article-heading">How weather forecasts are created</h1> <div class="share-line"><hr></div> <div class="row content-top"> <div class="col"> <p class="learn-article-tagline" data-swiftype-name="tagline" data-swiftype-type="text">Creating forecasts is a complex process which is constantly being updated.</p> <div data-swiftype-name="body" data-swiftype-type="text"> <div class="article-body"><p style="margin-left:0cm; margin-right:0cm"><span><span><span>There are three important stages to a weather forecast:</span></span></span></p> <ol> <li><span><span><span><strong>Knowing what the weather is doing now</strong></span></span></span></li> <li><span><span><span><strong>Calculating how this will change in future</strong></span></span></span></li> <li><span><span><span><strong>Using meteorological expertise to refine the details</strong></span></span></span></li> </ol> <p style="margin-left:0cm; margin-right:0cm"><span><span><span>In order to know what the weather will do in the future, we first need to know accurately what it is doing now. Recordings of weather variables are made 24 hours a day across the globe. These are passed to the world's major weather forecasting centres and used in conjunction with satellite pictures to get a picture of what the atmosphere is doing now. These are called observations. </span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-left:0cm; margin-right:0cm"><span><span><span>The weather forecasting centres have huge supercomputers, which use these observations as ‘starting conditions’ for very complex equations which can predict where the weather will move, and how it will evolve as time goes on. </span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-left:0cm; margin-right:0cm"><span><span><span>The computer models are run several times a day, and meteorologists work through the clock to check that the forecast is going to plan. If it is not, they will amend any forecasts going out to customers, if that change affects their operations. For example, if the temperature is slightly lower than expected that can mean the difference between frost or not by the end of the night, and whether a lorry needs to go out and grit a road.  </span></span></span></p> <div style="height:0; overflow:hidden; padding-bottom:56.25%; padding-top:30px; position:relative" class="youtube-embed-wrapper"><iframe allowfullscreen="" src="//web.archive.org/web/20200924045117if_/https://www.youtube.com/embed/Il3GnoqjaQU" width="640" style="position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;" frameborder="0" height="360"></iframe></div> <p> </p></div> <div class="article-body"></div> </div> </div> <div class="mpu-col"> <div class="advert-container"> <div class="draggable-advert mpuOnly" id="mpuOnly"></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </article> <section class="learn-articles-block preview-block no-print" aria-labelledby="child-articles-heading"> <h2 id="child-articles-heading">Featured</h2> <ul class="items"> <li class="preview-block-component"> <a href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/how-forecasts-are-made/observations/observations" class="item"> <div class="image preview-block-image-98ea3181-ff78-4ef1-99db-a99deb5f520f"></div> <h3 class="title title-row-1">Observations</h3> <div class="read-more-text"> <span class="icon" data-type="preview-block" data-value="landing"></span><span>Explore</span> </div> </a> </li> <li class="preview-block-component"> <a href="/web/20200924045117/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/how-forecasts-are-made/computer-models/index" class="item"> <div class="image preview-block-image-e44f1c75-91bc-426f-a3c1-27591e8a3d9e"></div> <h3 class="title title-row-1">Using a computer model to make a forecast</h3> <div class="read-more-text"> <span class="icon" data-type="preview-block" data-value="landing"></span><span>Explore</span> </div> </a> </li> <li class="preview-block-component"> <a 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