Mysteel：铁合金全品种分析师视点（1月23日）-我的钢铁网

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class="merquee-txt">1月23日Mysteel铁合金分析师视点</span></span><span class="size">11.26MB</span>', url: 'https://mfs.mysteelcdn.com/group1/M00/F0/C1/rBL632eS4lCARGHKALQabYucD7M474.mp3', }] }); try { ap.audio.addEventListener('ended', function () { ap.audio.play() setTimeout(function () { ap.audio.currentTime = 0 ap.audio.pause() if ($('.merquee-txt').outerWidth() > $('.sub-t').outerWidth()) { $('.merquee-txt').addClass('merquee-move') } }, 400) }, false); } catch (error) { } try { document.addEventListener('visibilitychange', function () { if (document.hidden) { // 关闭背景音乐 ap.pause() } else { // 开启背景音乐 // ap.play() } }) } catch (err) { } if ($('.merquee-txt').outerWidth() > $('.sub-t').outerWidth()) { $('.merquee-txt').addClass('merquee-move') } </script> <div data-val="4684" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p><img src="https://img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/24/0844041.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="160" /></p> <p>【北方<a href='https://thj.m.mysteel.com/meng/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锰矿</a>】</p> <p>节前锰矿市场成交已进入尾声，成交价格停留在高位，一月锰矿价格涨幅尤为可观，主要表现在加蓬矿，目前锰矿头部企业在市场中引领性较强，部分中小型贸易商保持跟随挺价心态，预计节后归来锰矿价格将在目前基础上探涨，报价将继续高位向上，成交至2月中旬逐步好转，市场贸易商买货参与交易或将增加，整体市场情绪保持高位，春节期间库存有一定积累，但氧化矿持续低位，对价格仍有支撑，在多方因素刺激下，节后市场还将有一定时间的情绪性上行。</p> <p>【南方锰矿】</p> <p>节前锰矿备货基本完成，港口进入放假模式。目前钦州港锰矿库存处于低位，货源相对集中，价格保持高位坚挺。下游桂林地区开工率虽有增加，但云南贵州有下降，实际开工复产情况需观望节后合金价格而定，锰矿供应偏低，整体供需格局尚可。节后归来观望北方走势跟随，南方锰矿库存低作为支撑，锰矿价格将在现有水平上继续探涨。</p> <p>【硅锰】</p> <p>内蒙硅锰：</p> <p>成本端，矿端短期内价格依旧坚挺，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050106-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>化工焦</a>预计维持平稳，硅锰成本支撑尚可，生产端，工厂开工波动不大，目前多数维持正常生产，假期期间暂无检修计划，节后归来部分工厂炉子预计继续点火，产量仍有上涨空间，价格方面，目前节日氛围浓厚，工厂报价及成交较少，多为排单生产，库存量不大，钢厂端，主流钢招节前是否采购未知，部分参考主流钢厂定价的其他钢厂采取暂定价方式，观望主流钢厂招标情况以及矿端走势，预计节后短期内硅锰市场仍维持较好运行态势。</p> <p>宁夏硅锰：</p> <p>西北硅锰，锰矿价格延续偏强走势，且矿价涨幅高于硅锰价格涨幅，化工焦节前小幅下跌，节后关注<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>整体需求及钢厂复产情况，若年后需求复苏，在钢厂低库存策略下供需产生错配，焦炭或将短暂提产后进行产量回落，判断化工焦节后或将出现短暂价格回调后偏弱运行。电价方面，宁夏前期存有电价上涨预期，但结合厂家交易操作以及电力端低位成本，判断1月结算电价上涨幅度低于预期，综合判断硅锰成本波动走高，结合厂家原料备货周期基本至2月份，排单周期同样至2月末，因此基本维持现有产量增产可能性不强。价格方面，厂家端基本锁定2月份利润，预计节后现货端延续挺价局面，硅锰价格偏强运行。</p> <p>南方硅锰：</p> <p>节前受锰矿发运减少，国内氧化矿高度集中的影响，硅锰盘面跟随锰矿价格同步上涨，在新一轮钢厂招标价格并不明朗的情况下，合金厂纷纷进行盘面套保，获取稳定利润，缓解资金压力，预计节后硅锰市场和锰矿同频共振上涨概率较大，成本支撑较强的情况下，硅锰市场短期下跌难度较大，但因硅锰库存仍处于严重过剩状态，长期走势仍以供需决定，下半年市场压力依然较大，长期走势还需观望钢厂需求及硅锰开工变化给市场带来的影响。</p> <p>【电解锰】</p> <p>电解锰市场价格保持稳中偏强运行，市场开始待假氛围较为明显，目前市场现货流通较为紧缺，加之锰系产品市场氛围较好，现货报价随之上涨，供应商暂无低价出售意愿，但实际成交仍需进一步跟进，临近年关，业内多观望为主且部分业内人士对后期走势持乐观态度，整体还需持续关注实际供需指引变更。</p> <p>【硫酸锰】</p> <p>硫酸锰市场盘整持稳运行，矿端及硫酸市场对高纯硫酸锰行情带来持稳支撑，临近春节，硫酸锰市场活跃度较低，询盘稀少，现货成交较为冷清，行情暂无明显波动趋势，下游三元前驱体市场运行平稳，终端需求才有意愿不佳，海外市场逐步兴起但对原料硫酸锰传导较慢，业内对后期走势多观望为主，今日电池级硫酸锰价格为5900-6100元/吨，<a href='https://ncp.m.mysteel.com/siliao/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>饲料</a>级硫酸锰价格在3000-3200元/吨。</p> <p>【锰铁】 </p> <p>高碳锰铁现货成交减少。钢招方面，多数钢厂节前定价，价格多参考风向标钢招，或小幅上调50-100元/吨。贸易商采购谨慎，多观望节后价格中低碳锰铁方面，中低锰现货近期一直偏紧，价格坚挺，成交较少。目前已有部分小厂停产检修，部分厂家封盘不报。综合来看，锰铁市场短期内坚挺运行，将持续关注成本变化。</p> <p>【富锰渣】</p> <p>短期富锰渣市场价格或将继续上探，节前下游采购情绪较好，厂内库存偏低，预计节前价格继续坚挺上行，部分厂家表示价格或将上调4-5元/吨度，辽宁地区40度富锰渣报价47-49元/吨度，宁夏地区38度报价46-48元/吨度，山西地区42度报价47-50元/吨度。</p> <p>【<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----030301-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>硅铁</a>】</p> <p>成本：节后硅铁1月结算电价或有上涨空间，厂家生产压力较大，但<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>兰炭</a>以连续两轮下跌，节后维持弱稳运行，若电价上涨较多，不排除节后归来部分企业在交单结束后出现减产情况。</p> <p>供给：节后宁夏厂家有复产计划，其他产区变动有限，但目前厂家基本排单生产至月底，库存及出货压力较小。</p> <p>需求：节后钢招节奏相对紧凑，钢招价格在一定程度上仍有支撑。金属镁市场节后多持稳运行，需求陆续恢复增加。</p> <p>整体来看节后首周硅铁市场多持观望态度，市场弱稳运行为主。</p> <p>【工业硅】</p> <p>节前工业硅现货市场价格维持弱势，期货价格呈现震荡走势，前期价格反弹主要为前期超跌后期现出货顺畅，近期低价采货抬升价格。本周周初期货价格下行，主要为合盛复产消扰动，据悉合盛目前复产4台330矿热炉，节前仍有部分矿热炉有复产计划，但集中大规模复产仍在年后，由于大厂复产进程拉长，以及部分西北硅厂表示价格若持续下跌有停产可能，预计年后供应端将有缓慢增长，对价格刺激会有一定程度的缓冲。节后需求端来看，多晶硅由于较长时间的减产以及节后下游硅片排产预期较好，库存有望得到一定程度去化，硅粉价格若能暂缓压力，工业硅价格有望止跌。</p> <p>【金属镁】</p> <p>本周镁合金部分工厂开始排单模式。部分工厂放假，正常生产节后发货；下游客户及贸易商根据自身情况进行节前备货，基本的量都不大，对节后行情保持观望。节后天气转暖，生产操控性提高，具备减产条件，叠加榆镁持续收储，部分合金厂家对节后市场预期向好。整体来看，当前镁合金市场价格持稳，节后整体行情跌涨空间有限。预计节前合金市厂延续当前走势稳挺为主。节后关注厂家发货后下游需求实际成交跟进情况。</p> <p>【钒】</p> <p>年前原料端大厂片钒定价维持不变，按照7.3去出货，1月签单情况不佳，但市场散货整体还是处于挺价的态势，部分企业低价已暂停出货，但同时下游部分主流钢企在节前已进行备货，预计2月合金需求会有一定量的缩水，因此在成本支撑及但需求又偏弱的情况下，钒市节后归来或维持窄幅震荡。</p> <p>【钨】</p> <p>大企长单出炉，释放了稳市信号，同时也说明春节前散货低价难采的现状。持货商惜售挺价信心充足，但下游以刚需采购为主，场内55度钨矿散货在14.3万/标吨以上进行议价，春节临近，各家企业陆续进入停产检修，场内成交冷清。节后钨价预计下调，因为现在的价格已经炒作到了虚高，报价远远高于成交价，年后备货会将价格往下压，但25年开采指标还没公布，原料供应还是紧缺，预计下调幅度有限</p> <p>【钛】</p> <p>国内钛精矿市场价格维稳，攀西地区46%钛精矿价格报价1980-2230元/吨（不含税），原材料主导明显，走势也随之向上浮动；承德地区钛精矿价格稳定，45%钛精矿报价1680-1730元/吨（不含税）；云南地区钛精矿价格震荡向上，45%钛精矿报价围绕1700-1750元/吨（不含税）；国内莫桑比克46%钛精矿报价2300-2350元/吨，整体来看，随着春节临近，物流运输企业相继放假，钛矿新单询盘冷清，预计节后市场持稳向好运行。</p> <p>国内钛白粉市场大势走稳，观望气氛较浓。随着下游工厂及经销商节前不同程度的备货表现，钛企接单情况尚可，库存压力缓解，另外供应端个别型号紧缺，加之在原料端的高位支撑下，龙企方面率先发函调涨，国内客户上调300元/吨，此举给与市场一定的提振表现，但是考虑到临近假期，后续接单情况多看向节后市场，节前价格仍持稳运行。</p> <p>【铌】</p> <p>巴西铌铁：近期巴西铌铁散户市场交投活跃度仍居高不下;由于最新季度巴西铌铁价格暂未确定，代表性企业出货有所减少，散户持货商看涨情绪浓厚，市场出现现货紧缺的态势;部分企业出货报价上调至24.7-25万元/吨现金，个别报价大幅上涨至25.2-25.4万元/吨现金均有，但下游对高于25万现金接盘意向较低，采购预期仍在24.5万元/吨现金左右。目前市场观望氛围较重，实际成交较少，节后归来铌铁价格仍以坚挺运行为主，目前市场现货供应较为紧缺，节后短期内可能仍会维持，为价格提供支撑，大部分贸易商对于节后看涨心态较重。</p> <p>【钼】</p> <p>临近春节，钼市弱稳运行。原料端，部分持货商低价让利释放库存，原料价格小幅松动，45%品位钼精矿价格在3540-3550元/吨度附近，随着物流的逐渐停止，市场成交回归平静；钼铁方面，本周南钢、浦项、首钢、太钢等钢厂仍在采购，散货市场成交清淡，主流铁厂钼铁现货现金报价不变，维持在23.1-23.3万元/吨附近；终端需求方面，300系<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>市场贸易商多处于休假阶段，现货价格没有调整，市场销售基本停滞，整体氛围多维持平静。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> 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