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columnist</span></div><div class="_3Jb6E"> <span class="_2xetH"><time class="_2_zR-" data-testid="datetime" dateTime="2024-11-19T09:13:45+08:00">November 19, 2024 — 9.13am</time></span></div></div></div></div></header><section class="_3OhA4 Lspjx"><div class="_2h56q _2bGxr"><div class="_3J1te"><div class="_3kTtc"> <span class="_2xetH"><time class="_2_zR-" data-testid="datetime" dateTime="2024-11-19T09:13:45+08:00">November 19, 2024 — 9.13am</time></span></div></div></div><div class="_2CSKo noPrint"><div class="_1KqZ_"><div class="hLTvJ"><button aria-checked="false" aria-describedby="saveTooltip" aria-label="Save article to read later" class="_31ZN0" role="switch" type="button"><svg aria-hidden="true" class="QMY9O _11R7m" focusable="false" height="1em" width="1em"><use xlink:href="#icon-save"></use></svg><span class="_3-fU6">Save</span></button><div aria-hidden="true" class="_1lwFz uXbxr" id="saveTooltip" role="tooltip"><button>Log in</button>, <a data-testid="login-register" href="https://watoday.myfairfax.com.au/channel/cWvEleexy48f-PI5-jlBnw/members/signups/new?callback_uri=">register</a> or <a href="https://subscribe.watoday.com.au/?promote_channel=HI_HL_GNL">subscribe</a> to save articles for later.</div><div><div aria-hidden="true" class="_1lwFz WUf_a _1pHo1" id="onboardingTooltip" role="tooltip"><h3>Save articles for later</h3><p>Add articles to your saved list and come back to them any time.</p><button class="_2YSi8 _17BTN _3_hLE" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="save onboarding" data-ffx-event-label="got it - part 1" data-ffx-hittype="event">Got it</button></div></div></div><div class="_2Cn91"><div class="_2KkCz"><button class="_30X7v _2-NUy" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="component" data-ffx-event-label="font size normal" data-ffx-event-value="0" data-ffx-hittype="event">Normal text size</button><button class="_3Rq_0" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="component" data-ffx-event-label="font size large" data-ffx-event-value="0" data-ffx-hittype="event">Larger text size</button><button class="_3VkdU" data-ffx-event-action="cta click" data-ffx-event-category="component" data-ffx-event-label="font size extra large" data-ffx-event-value="0" data-ffx-hittype="event">Very large text size</button></div></div></div></div></section><section class="_1Rw6X" data-testid="article-body-top"><aside class="_2GZaf"><div class="_1q-_I _3sCHz"><div class="container"><div class="adWrapper _2UMq- noPrint" data-testid="ad"><small class="_3ToRr">Advertisement</small><div class="" id="adspot-160x600_300x250_300x600-pos2-desktop"></div></div></div></div></aside><div class="_1ysFk" data-testid="article-body"><div><div class="_5JLqO"><div class="_1Ld7U" id="beyondwords-player"></div><div class="_3Fhwk" data-testid="showPlayerOverlay"></div></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>Amid the spate of appointments to the incoming Trump administration announced over the past few days, two have the president-elect and the US oil industry quite excited.</p><p>Donald Trump appointed former North Dakota governor <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-transition-white-house-cheung-gor-f3e02df04ffece1b07a44062ee723d71" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Doug Burgum as his “energy tsar”</a> and interior secretary on Friday, following that with the announcement of oilfield services group Liberty Energy’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-appoints-energy-secretary-who-drank-bleach-on-camera-20241118-.html">chief executive Chris Wright</a> as his energy secretary on Saturday.</p><figure class="_3ujPS _3x3-4 RMwbY _2XZQH" data-testid="image"><div aria-label="enlarge image" class="_1lwW_" role="button" tabindex="0"><picture class=""><source media="(min-width: 1024px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.137%2C$multiply_0.9788%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/e1a17417544fdaa831773944cd1f4f3822fcb6ec, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.137%2C$multiply_1.9577%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/e1a17417544fdaa831773944cd1f4f3822fcb6ec 2x" height="494" width="740"/><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.137%2C$multiply_1.0159%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/e1a17417544fdaa831773944cd1f4f3822fcb6ec, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.137%2C$multiply_2.0317%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/e1a17417544fdaa831773944cd1f4f3822fcb6ec 2x" height="512" width="768"/><img alt="Donald Trump’s push for more fossil fuel production could end in oversupply, hurting prices." src="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.137%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/e1a17417544fdaa831773944cd1f4f3822fcb6ec" height="390" width="584" srcSet="https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.137%2C$multiply_0.7725%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/e1a17417544fdaa831773944cd1f4f3822fcb6ec, https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.137%2C$multiply_1.545%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/e1a17417544fdaa831773944cd1f4f3822fcb6ec 2x"/></picture></div><figcaption class="_3CZmy"><p><span class="_2Li3P">Donald Trump’s push for more fossil fuel production could end in oversupply, hurting prices.</span><cite class="ojLwA"><span class="_30ROC">Credit: </span>Bloomberg</cite></p></figcaption></figure><p>Burgum will chair, and Wright will be a member of Trump’s new National Energy Council, which a statement from Trump on Friday said would “consist of all departments and agencies involved in the permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation, transportation, of all forms of American energy”.</p><p>“This council will oversee the path to US energy dominance by cutting red tape, enhancing private sector investments across all sector[s] of the economy, and by focusing on innovation over long-standing, but totally unnecessary, regulation,” the statement said.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>Trump has made it clear that he wants to gut the climate-related elements of Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/inflation-reduction-act-guidebook/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Inflation Reduction Act</a>, remove the outgoing administration’s subsidies for cleaner energy production and use and dramatically boost fossil fuel production.</p><div class="ymInT _3uJpn _3by58 noPrint"><span class="_2wzgv D5idv _3lVFK"><span class="_29Qt8"></span><span class="_3qqDc">Loading</span></span></div><p>Burgum, who played a key role in rounding up big donations to Trump’s campaign from the oil industry, and Wright, an advocate for greater fossil fuel production who says there is no climate crisis or energy transition, will have a mandate to increase US oil and gas production.</p><p>Trump, who describes oil as “liquid gold”, whose directive to the oil and gas sector is to “drill, baby, drill”, and who says that had he won the presidency in 2020, American production would be four or five times that of current levels (which is absurd), is setting lofty goals for Wright. He said Wright would be a “key leader, driving innovation, cutting red tape, and ushering in a new golden age of American prosperity and global peace”.</p><p>Trump’s expectations for US oil and gas production are ambitious but likely unrealisable – at least during his presidency and probably beyond.</p></div></div></div></section><div class="_1FVfK"><div class="container"><div class="adWrapper _2UMq- noPrint" data-testid="ad"><small class="_3ToRr">Advertisement</small><div class="" id="adspot-728x90_970x250-pos3-desktop"></div></div></div></div><section class="vPaWe" data-testid="article-body-bottom"><div class="_1ysFk"><div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>Under the Biden administration, US oil production is already at record levels, and while the rate of growth in production has been slowing, output is expected to be even higher next year.</p><p>The US Energy Information Administration said earlier this month that it expects US oil production to average 13.22 million barrels a day this year and increase to 13.53 million barrels a day next year. The sector produced an average of 11.3 million barrels a day in Trump’s last year in office.</p><blockquote class="Zfkcv" data-testid="pull-quote"><p>The challenge for Trump’s new energy team is that global demand for oil has weakened, even as supply – particularly from the US, Canada, Guyana and Brazil – has increased.</p></blockquote><p>The challenge for Trump’s new energy team is that global demand for oil has weakened, even as supply – particularly from the US, Canada, Guyana and Brazil – has increased.</p><p>The International Energy Agency has forecast a surplus of supply over demand of a million barrels a day next year, with non-OPEC producers alone adding 1.5 million barrels a day but demand only rising by 990,000 barrels a day.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>That surplus would occur even if the OPEC+ producers, led by Saudi Arabia, decide not to start unwinding 2.21 million barrels a day of the 6 million or so barrels a day they have taken out of the market since they started trying to put a floor under oil prices in 2021.</p><div class="ymInT _3uJpn _3by58 noPrint"><span class="_2wzgv D5idv _3lVFK"><span class="_29Qt8"></span><span class="_3qqDc">Loading</span></span></div><p>They had planned to start returning 180,000 barrels a day to the market in October but pushed the start date back to next month.</p><p>Despite the production cuts, oil prices have fallen as the year has progressed, driven by weakening demand from China, where oil consumption has declined for the past six months. The slower growth rate of its economy and its remarkable rate of take-up of electric vehicles are unlikely to be temporary phenomena.</p><p>With the big OPEC+ production cuts overhanging the market, China’s demand is likely to remain subdued and global growth also muted; a big surge in US production would only depress oil prices further and deter new production.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>US shale oil producers – because their wells tend to be short-lived, and the sector is capital intensive – are quick to drill when prices are high but equally quick to dial down their drilling when prices fall.</p><p>The external environment could get worse. The US industry is nervous about Trump’s proposed tariffs, particularly tariffs on steel imports, which could drive up input costs and lower global growth – particularly if America’s trade partners retaliate – even as oil prices are under pressure.</p><p>The prospect of higher US interest rates and, after the initial boost from his tax cuts wears off, lower economic growth from Trump’s economic policies would also be a concern.</p><p>The reality of the US industry is that it could, if it wanted, produce more oil and gas today, but its output is tempered by the subdued oil prices and the knowledge that some of the production OPEC+ has withdrawn from the market could return if the cartel wants to arrest the erosion of its market share.</p><p>A wild card for the market is the prospect that Trump will reimpose the sanctions on Iran that Biden lifted, impacting the 1.8 million barrels of oil a day it has been exporting.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>However, Iran’s major export customer is China, which isn’t deterred by sanctions as shown by its imports of Russian oil. And like Russia, Iran has built a shadow fleet of tankers to transport its oil and circumvent sanctions.</p><p>One of Wright’s responsibilities will be regulating and licensing LNG exports. The Biden administration froze the issuance of licences for new LNG export terminals.</p><p>The Trump administration could be expected to green-flag them while reducing environmental standards and creating easier and quicker approval processes for new pipelines, which would aid both the gas and oil sectors.</p><p>With a lot of new LNG capacity outside the US due into the market by the end of this decade, however, there should be some supply-demand discipline to moderate the growth in American LNG exports.</p></div><div class="_1lC_G"></div><div class="_1665V _2q-Vk" data-testid="body-content"><p>For both oil and gas, while Trump might withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change and reverse Biden’s shift towards decarbonising the US economy, much of the rest of the world, including China and Europe, will continue to lower their own use of fossil fuels.</p><p>The longer-term outlook for oil and gas and carbon-intensive exports more broadly isn’t positive.</p><p>Trump might have appointed people to the key energy administration posts who will cut regulation, open up more federal lands for fossil fuel production and promote more oil and gas production and investment in the infrastructure to get it to markets.</p><p>What neither he nor they can do, however, is control the global demand for oil and LNG, and therefore the prices for the fossil fuels and the economics of US production – although Trump’s economic and trade agenda, which threatens to lift the US inflation rate and reduce global growth, might play a role in further reducing that demand.</p><p><b><i>The Business Briefing newsletter delivers major stories, exclusive coverage and expert opinion. </i></b><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p56j4t"><b><i>Sign up to get it every weekday morning</i></b></a><b><i>.</i></b></p></div></div><div class="noPrint"><div></div><div></div></div><div id="embedded-feedback"></div><div class="_22FRK _2spQv"><section class="aKWhn noPrint" id="endOfArticle"><div class="dLGbc"><div class="hLTvJ"><button aria-checked="false" aria-describedby="saveTooltip" aria-label="Save article to read later" class="_31ZN0" role="switch" type="button"><svg aria-hidden="true" class="QMY9O _11R7m" focusable="false" height="1em" width="1em"><use xlink:href="#icon-save"></use></svg><span class="_3-fU6">Save</span></button><div aria-hidden="true" class="_1lwFz uXbxr" id="saveTooltip" role="tooltip"><button>Log in</button>, <a data-testid="login-register" href="https://watoday.myfairfax.com.au/channel/cWvEleexy48f-PI5-jlBnw/members/signups/new?callback_uri=">register</a> or <a href="https://subscribe.watoday.com.au/?promote_channel=HI_HL_GNL">subscribe</a> to save articles for later.</div></div><div class="_8Cum8"><a class="_4oUp_" href="http://rightsportal.copyright.com.au/pages/republicationpage.aspx?author=Stephen%20Bartholomeusz&publication=WAT&publicationdate=2024-11-19T01%3A13%3A45Z&publisher=fxj&title=%E2%80%98Drill%2C%20baby%2C%20drill%E2%80%99%3A%20What%20if%20the%20world%20doesn%E2%80%99t%20need%20Trump%E2%80%99s%20%E2%80%98liquid%20gold%E2%80%99%3F&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.watoday.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fmarkets%2Fdrill-baby-drill-what-if-the-world-doesn-t-need-trump-s-liquid-gold-20241119-p5krpg.html">License this article</a></div><div class="ZFgNO"><ul class="_3Nz34"><li><a class="_2Tz1_" href="/topic/oil-huo">Oil</a></li><li><a class="_2Tz1_" href="/topic/donald-john-trump-2tq">Donald Trump</a></li><li><a class="_2Tz1_" href="/topic/us-election-63n">US election</a></li><li><a class="_2Tz1_" href="/topic/organization-of-the-petroleum-exporting-countries-1nud">OPEC</a></li><li><a class="_2Tz1_" href="/topic/saudi-arabia-f15">Saudi Arabia</a></li><li><a class="_2Tz1_" href="/topic/energy-5wp">Energy</a></li><li><button class="_3Fcyd">More…</button></li></ul></div></div></section><div class="_2Cg_3"><div class="iQMz1" hidden=""><div class="_1Oml5"><a class="_3NFLJ" title="Articles by Stephen Bartholomeusz" href="/by/stephen-bartholomeusz-h0yjtd">Stephen Bartholomeusz</a> is one of Australia’s most respected business journalists. 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Trump wants America to dominate the global oil market. But his plans to boost production come as demand for the fossil fuel has weakened.\",\"allowComments\":false,\"body\":\"<p>Amid the spate of appointments to the incoming Trump administration announced over the past few days, two have the president-elect and the US oil industry quite excited.</p><p>Donald Trump appointed former North Dakota governor <x-placeholder id=\\\"2161c400b94a565925f1419ec9e56cfaf247826b\\\"></x-placeholder> and interior secretary on Friday, following that with the announcement of oilfield services group Liberty Energy\\u2019s <x-placeholder id=\\\"7b37711a72d8d8eb89ea9f8e7f868b36ad8914e5\\\"></x-placeholder> as his energy secretary on Saturday.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"3c2c82d7481834071319000d665e53b93a3cd486\\\"></x-placeholder><p>Burgum will chair, and Wright will be a member of Trump\\u2019s new National Energy Council, which a statement from Trump on Friday said would \\u201Cconsist of all departments and agencies involved in the permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation, transportation, of all forms of American energy\\u201D.</p><p>\\u201CThis council will oversee the path to US energy dominance by cutting red tape, enhancing private sector investments across all sector[s] of the economy, and by focusing on innovation over long-standing, but totally unnecessary, regulation,\\u201D the statement said.</p><p>Trump has made it clear that he wants to gut the climate-related elements of Joe Biden\\u2019s <x-placeholder id=\\\"7f27c0dba7f11523deac0ac9ec27d879d5bacff8\\\"></x-placeholder>, remove the outgoing administration\\u2019s subsidies for cleaner energy production and use and dramatically boost fossil fuel production.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"924714c9d5b9169e1e3caab2fb02984cad61da71\\\"></x-placeholder><p>Burgum, who played a key role in rounding up big donations to Trump\\u2019s campaign from the oil industry, and Wright, an advocate for greater fossil fuel production who says there is no climate crisis or energy transition, will have a mandate to increase US oil and gas production.</p><p>Trump, who describes oil as \\u201Cliquid gold\\u201D, whose directive to the oil and gas sector is to \\u201Cdrill, baby, drill\\u201D, and who says that had he won the presidency in 2020, American production would be four or five times that of current levels (which is absurd), is setting lofty goals for Wright. He said Wright would be a \\u201Ckey leader, driving innovation, cutting red tape, and ushering in a new golden age of American prosperity and global peace\\u201D.</p><p>Trump\\u2019s expectations for US oil and gas production are ambitious but likely unrealisable \\u2013 at least during his presidency and probably beyond.</p><p>Under the Biden administration, US oil production is already at record levels, and while the rate of growth in production has been slowing, output is expected to be even higher next year.</p><p>The US Energy Information Administration said earlier this month that it expects US oil production to average 13.22 million barrels a day this year and increase to 13.53 million barrels a day next year. The sector produced an average of 11.3 million barrels a day in Trump\\u2019s last year in office.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"2d048261e721c5e7831e1b4b9fe0fdec670012ad\\\"></x-placeholder><p>The challenge for Trump\\u2019s new energy team is that global demand for oil has weakened, even as supply \\u2013 particularly from the US, Canada, Guyana and Brazil \\u2013 has increased.</p><p>The International Energy Agency has forecast a surplus of supply over demand of a million barrels a day next year, with non-OPEC producers alone adding 1.5 million barrels a day but demand only rising by 990,000 barrels a day.</p><p>That surplus would occur even if the OPEC+ producers, led by Saudi Arabia, decide not to start unwinding 2.21 million barrels a day of the 6 million or so barrels a day they have taken out of the market since they started trying to put a floor under oil prices in 2021.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"094775165135bbe1ff7ac66eb27e3fe1da8676f3\\\"></x-placeholder><p>They had planned to start returning 180,000 barrels a day to the market in October but pushed the start date back to next month.</p><p>Despite the production cuts, oil prices have fallen as the year has progressed, driven by weakening demand from China, where oil consumption has declined for the past six months. The slower growth rate of its economy and its remarkable rate of take-up of electric vehicles are unlikely to be temporary phenomena.</p><p>With the big OPEC+ production cuts overhanging the market, China\\u2019s demand is likely to remain subdued and global growth also muted; a big surge in US production would only depress oil prices further and deter new production.</p><p>US shale oil producers \\u2013 because their wells tend to be short-lived, and the sector is capital intensive \\u2013 are quick to drill when prices are high but equally quick to dial down their drilling when prices fall.</p><p>The external environment could get worse. The US industry is nervous about Trump\\u2019s proposed tariffs, particularly tariffs on steel imports, which could drive up input costs and lower global growth \\u2013 particularly if America\\u2019s trade partners retaliate \\u2013 even as oil prices are under pressure.</p><p>The prospect of higher US interest rates and, after the initial boost from his tax cuts wears off, lower economic growth from Trump\\u2019s economic policies would also be a concern.</p><p>The reality of the US industry is that it could, if it wanted, produce more oil and gas today, but its output is tempered by the subdued oil prices and the knowledge that some of the production OPEC+ has withdrawn from the market could return if the cartel wants to arrest the erosion of its market share.</p><p>A wild card for the market is the prospect that Trump will reimpose the sanctions on Iran that Biden lifted, impacting the 1.8 million barrels of oil a day it has been exporting.</p><p>However, Iran\\u2019s major export customer is China, which isn\\u2019t deterred by sanctions as shown by its imports of Russian oil. And like Russia, Iran has built a shadow fleet of tankers to transport its oil and circumvent sanctions.</p><p>One of Wright\\u2019s responsibilities will be regulating and licensing LNG exports. The Biden administration froze the issuance of licences for new LNG export terminals.</p><x-placeholder id=\\\"a52da1a492b643c8bf51df4f298970ad9b0c8221\\\"></x-placeholder><p>The Trump administration could be expected to green-flag them while reducing environmental standards and creating easier and quicker approval processes for new pipelines, which would aid both the gas and oil sectors.</p><p>With a lot of new LNG capacity outside the US due into the market by the end of this decade, however, there should be some supply-demand discipline to moderate the growth in American LNG exports.</p><p>For both oil and gas, while Trump might withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change and reverse Biden\\u2019s shift towards decarbonising the US economy, much of the rest of the world, including China and Europe, will continue to lower their own use of fossil fuels.</p><p>The longer-term outlook for oil and gas and carbon-intensive exports more broadly isn\\u2019t positive.</p><p>Trump might have appointed people to the key energy administration posts who will cut regulation, open up more federal lands for fossil fuel production and promote more oil and gas production and investment in the infrastructure to get it to markets.</p><p>What neither he nor they can do, however, is control the global demand for oil and LNG, and therefore the prices for the fossil fuels and the economics of US production \\u2013 although Trump\\u2019s economic and trade agenda, which threatens to lift the US inflation rate and reduce global growth, might play a role in further reducing that demand.</p><p><b><i>The Business Briefing newsletter delivers major stories, exclusive coverage and expert opinion. </i></b><x-placeholder id=\\\"1d8701e46ea85ed821162d05ff61d3f7a390c768\\\"></x-placeholder><b><i>.</i></b></p>\",\"bodyPlaceholders\":{\"094775165135bbe1ff7ac66eb27e3fe1da8676f3\":{\"data\":{\"id\":\"p5krdh\"},\"type\":\"relatedStory\"},\"1d8701e46ea85ed821162d05ff61d3f7a390c768\":{\"data\":{\"newTab\":false,\"noFollow\":false,\"text\":\"<b><i>Sign up to get it every weekday morning</i></b>\",\"url\":\"https://www.smh.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p56j4t\"},\"type\":\"linkExternal\"},\"2161c400b94a565925f1419ec9e56cfaf247826b\":{\"data\":{\"newTab\":true,\"noFollow\":false,\"text\":\"Doug Burgum as his \\u201Cenergy tsar\\u201D\",\"url\":\"https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-transition-white-house-cheung-gor-f3e02df04ffece1b07a44062ee723d71\"},\"type\":\"linkExternal\"},\"2d048261e721c5e7831e1b4b9fe0fdec670012ad\":{\"data\":{\"markup\":\"<p>The challenge for Trump\\u2019s new energy team is that global demand for oil has weakened, even as supply \\u2013 particularly from the US, Canada, Guyana and Brazil 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