Mysteel解读：6月进口铁矿石矿供应情况及7月份预测-我的钢铁网

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margin-right: auto;" border="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td valign="center" width="74"> <p align="center"><strong>分类</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="91"> <p align="center"><strong>发运主体</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="111"> <p align="center"><strong>6月日均发运量</strong><strong>(万吨/天)</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="64"> <p align="center"><strong>环比</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="92"> <p align="center"><strong>同比</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="82"> <p align="center"><strong>今年累计</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="82"> <p align="center"><strong>累计同比</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td rowspan="4" valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">国家</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">全球</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="111"> <p align="center">467.8</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="64"> <p align="center">17.2</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">9.9</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p style="text-align: center;" align="center">77853.4</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">3172.7</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">澳洲</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="111"> <p align="center">290.6</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="64"> <p align="center">23.5</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">11.5</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">46283.5</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">-48.1</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">巴西</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="111"> <p align="center">104.0</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="64"> <p align="center">0.6</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">-9.2</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">17360.9</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">915.0</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">非主流</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="111"> <p align="center">73.2</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="64"> <p align="center">-7.0</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">7.6</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">14208.9</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">2305.8</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td rowspan="4" valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">矿山</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">Rio Tinto</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="111"> <p align="center">96.2</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="64"> <p align="center">8.7</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">4.6</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">15299.2</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">-652.1</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">BHP</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="111"> <p align="center">92.5</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="64"> <p align="center">8.8</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">4.3</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">14675.9</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">586.6</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">FMG</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="111"> <p align="center">62.4</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="64"> <p align="center">2.9</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">5.0</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">9565.6</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">99.6</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">VALE</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="111"> <p align="center">71.2</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap" width="64"> <p align="center">-6.6</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">-12.2</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">12678.0</p> </td> <td valign="center" nowrap="nowrap"> <p align="center">817.7</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>2、<strong>到港</strong><strong>：</strong><strong>全球</strong><strong>发往中国比例提升，非主流到港量低于预期</strong></p> <p>到港方面，结合模型计算最后一周的到港数据，6月钢联45港两港卸修正前口径，日均到港356.3万吨，环比或增4.64万吨，低于上月预计的增8.1万吨，主要是其中部分非主流船期影响。</p> <p>分国别来看，6月到港增量主要来自澳洲，预计6月澳矿日均到港环比增加8万吨，巴西矿到港持平，非主流矿日均到港环比减少3.8万吨，与上月预测基本相符。1-5月两港卸修正后45港到港累计同比增加4447万吨，1-6月预计增加5311万吨，累计同比增速加快。</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/28/8975d71cb0f84642b06b960673106cad.png" width="437" height="257" /></p> <p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>二、全球<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-5735,3970-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石供应</a>-全球铁矿石产量同比增量6639万吨，6月保持不变</strong></p> <p align="justify"><strong>1、产量</strong></p> <table style="float: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" border="1" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td valign="center" width="94"> </td> <td valign="center" width="153"> <p align="center"><strong>2024年增减量</strong></p> <p align="center"><strong>（</strong><strong>2023年11月预测</strong><strong>）</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="152"> <p align="center"><strong>2024年增减量</strong></p> <p align="center"><strong>（</strong><strong>2024年4月预测</strong><strong>）</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="center" width="94"> <p align="center"><strong>澳洲总量</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="153"> <p align="center"><strong>17.87</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="152"> <p align="center"><strong>4.97</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="center" width="94"> <p align="center"><strong>巴西总量</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="153"> <p align="center"><strong>2.76</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="152"> <p align="center"><strong>5.28</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="center" width="94"> <p align="center"><strong>其他国家</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="153"> <p align="center"><strong>41.25</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="152"> <p align="center"><strong>56.14</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="center" width="94"> <p align="center"><strong>全球总计</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="153"> <p align="center"><strong>61.88</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="152"> <p align="center"><strong>66.39</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="center" width="94"> <p align="center"><strong>单位：百万吨</strong></p> </td> <td valign="center" width="153"> </td> <td valign="center" width="152"> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>根据1-6月核心<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>全球矿山数据库及独家调研结果，预估2024年全球铁矿石产量同比增量或超6600万吨，比2023年11月预测版本增加451万吨，主要由于上半年印度、巴西、乌克兰、南非等国增量较突出，而澳洲中信泰富矿业公司在一季度将其Sino Iron磁铁矿项目Cape Preston精粉产量下调年度生产目标，同比减少700万吨，FMG的铁桥项目及加蓬贝林加项目在上半年产能释放较缓慢，不及预期。<strong> </strong></p> <p align="justify"><strong>2、7月发运量日均值预测</strong></p> <table style="float: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" border="1" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td valign="top" width="63"> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">全球</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">环比</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">澳洲</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">环比</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">巴西</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">环比</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">非主流</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">环比</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">预测值</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">438.5</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">-29.3</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">251.7</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">-38.9</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">114.6</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">10.6</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">72.2</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="63"> <p align="center">-1</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>从目前四大矿的发运进度、新增产能的投产进度及季节性因素来综合预计，7月全球发运预计环比减少908.3万吨，同比增加449.5万吨。因此7月从远端供应看环比回落，近端供应预计先增后降，预计7月发运量日均值为438.5万吨，环比减少29.3万吨，同比增加14.5万吨；</p> <p align="justify"><strong>3、发往中国比例预测</strong></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/28/d49719d9e8c248ecbc9f95a8e603ca85.png" width="390" height="210" /></p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/06/28/2604fa34637d4a54b02f807944fb3ccb.png" width="361" height="205" /></p> <p>6月全球发往中新比例的月均值环比增加0.9个百分点至78.6%，澳洲发往中国比例月均值环比增加0.67个百分点至85.1%，巴西6月均值为79.1%，环比增加8.8个百分点，非主流发往中新比例月均值59.52%，环比减少0.47个百分点；从世界钢协全球<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0305-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>生铁</a>产量来看，除中国外的其他国家及地区在7月份或将出现季节性下滑。总体2024年7月全球发往中国比例环比延续增势。</p> <p align="justify"><strong>4、7月到港量日均值预测</strong></p> <table style="float: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" border="1" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td valign="top" width="56"> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">全球</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">环比</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">澳洲</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">环比</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">巴西</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">环比</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">非主流</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">环比</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">预测值</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">371</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">14.7</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">240.5</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">3.3</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">79.3</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">10.9</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">51.2</p> </td> <td valign="top" width="56"> <p align="center">0.5</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>到港方面，根据澳巴非在二季度发运量的表现，我们预计7月份中国45港口到港量环比将表现出冲量趋势，澳巴到港环比增量强于非主流，整体45港7月份日均到港量或环比增加14.7万吨左右，同比增加22.5万吨左右。</p> <p align="justify"> </p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：何佳 021-26092080 </br> 资讯监督：肖薇 021-66896733 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-7208-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-7208-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div class="list-block recommend-list"> <ul> <li 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