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Debt and (not much) deleveraging | McKinsey

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High government debt in advanced economies, mounting household debt, and the rapid rise of China’s debt are areas of potential concern.","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"Richard Dobbs"},{"@type":"Person","name":"Susan Lund"},{"@type":"Person","name":"Lola Woetzel"},{"@type":"Person","name":"Mina Mutafchieva"}]}</script><meta name="next-head-count" content="64"/><meta name="next-font-preconnect"/><script src="" id="onetrust-wrapperchecker" data-nscript="beforeInteractive">function OptanonWrapperChecker() {}</script><link rel="preload" href="/_next/static/css/e0c1ca92b5263a45.css" as="style"/><link rel="stylesheet" href="/_next/static/css/e0c1ca92b5263a45.css" data-n-g=""/><link rel="preload" href="/_next/static/css/985443d8095c0b48.css" as="style"/><link rel="stylesheet" href="/_next/static/css/985443d8095c0b48.css" data-n-p=""/><link rel="preload" href="/_next/static/css/b9ab7b649e8aa36e.css" as="style"/><link rel="stylesheet" href="/_next/static/css/b9ab7b649e8aa36e.css"/><link 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mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Richard Dobbs<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Susan Lund<!-- --> </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Lola Woetzel<span>  </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Mina Mutafchieva</span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Global debt has grown by $57 trillion and no major economy has decreased its debt-to-GDP ratio since 2007. High government debt in advanced economies, mounting household debt, and the rapid rise of China&rsquo;s debt are areas of potential concern.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/~/media/mckinsey/featured insights/employment and growth/debt and not much deleveraging/mgi debt and not much deleveragingin brieffebruary 2015.pdf" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_blank" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="mgi-debt and not much deleveragingin brieffebruary 2015" data-layer-report-name="mgi-debt and not much deleveragingin brieffebruary 2015&gt;"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (PDF-763 KB)</span></a><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/~/media/mckinsey/featured insights/employment and growth/debt and not much deleveraging/mgi debt and not much deleveragingfullreportfebruary2015.pdf" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_blank" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="mgi-debt and not much deleveragingfullreportfebruary2015" data-layer-report-name="mgi-debt and not much deleveragingfullreportfebruary2015&gt;"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (PDF-3 MB)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>Seven years after</strong> the bursting of a global credit bubble resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, debt continues to grow. In fact, rather than reducing indebtedness, or deleveraging, all major economies today have higher levels of borrowing relative to GDP than they did in 2007. Global debt in these years has grown by $57 trillion, raising the ratio of debt to GDP by 17 percentage points (Exhibit 1). That poses new risks to financial stability and may undermine global economic growth.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Since the Great Recession, global debt has increased by $57 trillion, outpacing world GDP growth.</div></h5></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/employment%20and%20growth/debt%20and%20not%20much%20deleveraging/svg_web_mgi_debt_ex_1.svgz?cq=50&amp;cpy=Center"/><img alt="" src="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/employment%20and%20growth/debt%20and%20not%20much%20deleveraging/svg_web_mgi_debt_ex_1.svgz?cq=50&amp;cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>A new McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report, <em>Debt and (not much) deleveraging</em>, examines the evolution of debt across 47 countries—22 advanced and 25 developing—and assesses the implications of higher leverage in the global economy and in specific sectors and countries. The analysis, which follows our July 2011 report <em><a href="/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/debt-and-deleveraging-the-global-credit-bubble-update">Debt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences</a></em> and our January 2012 report <em></em><a href="/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/uneven-progress-on-the-path-to-growth"><em>Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth</em></a>, focuses on the debt of the &quot;real economy&quot;: governments, nonfinancial corporations, and households. It finds that debt-to-GDP ratios have risen in all 22 advanced economies in the sample, by more than 50 percentage points in many cases (Exhibit 2).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>The ratio of debt to GDP has increased in all advanced economies since 2007.</div></h5></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/employment%20and%20growth/debt%20and%20not%20much%20deleveraging/svgz_mgi_debtv2_ex_2.svgz?cq=50&amp;cpy=Center"/><img alt="" src="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/employment%20and%20growth/debt%20and%20not%20much%20deleveraging/svgz_mgi_debtv2_ex_2.svgz?cq=50&amp;cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>In our study, we pinpoint three areas of emerging risk: the rise of government debt, which in some countries has reached such high levels that new ways will be needed to reduce it; the continued rise in household debt—and housing prices—to new peaks in Northern Europe and some Asian countries; and the quadrupling of China&#x27;s debt, fueled by real estate and shadow banking, in just seven years.</p> <!-- --> <p>Here&#x27;s a closer look at those challenges, as well as some innovations that could help global economies to live safely with their current levels of debt and to avoid future crises:</p> <p><strong>Government debt is unsustainably high in some countries.</strong> Since 2007, government debt has grown by $25 trillion. It will continue to rise in many countries, given current economic fundamentals. Some of this debt, incurred with the encouragement of world leaders to finance bailouts and stimulus programs, stems from the crisis. Debt also rose as a result of the recession and the weak recovery. For six of the most highly indebted countries, starting the process of deleveraging would require implausibly large increases in real-GDP growth or extremely deep fiscal adjustments. To reduce government debt, countries may need to consider new approaches, such as more extensive asset sales, one-time taxes on wealth, and more efficient debt-restructuring programs.</p> <p><strong>Household debt is reaching new peaks.</strong> Only in the core crisis countries—Ireland, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States—have households deleveraged. In many others, household debt-to-income ratios have continued to rise. They exceed the peak levels in the crisis countries before 2008 in some cases, including such advanced economies as Australia, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands, as well as Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand. These countries want to avoid property-related debt crises like those of 2008. To manage high levels of household debt safely, they need more flexible mortgage contracts, clearer personal-bankruptcy rules, and tighter lending standards and macroprudential rules.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/mckinsey%20digital/our%20insights/disruptors%20images%20-%20test/mgi_tag2_258x145.jpg?cq=50&amp;mh=145&amp;car=16:9&amp;cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Would you like to learn more about the <a href="/mgi/our-research/all-research">McKinsey Global Institute?</a> </div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/mgi/our-research/all-research" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Visit the McKinsey Global Institute page</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>China&#x27;s debt has quadrupled since 2007.</strong> Fueled by real estate and shadow banking, China&#x27;s total debt has nearly quadrupled, rising to $28 trillion by mid-2014, from $7 trillion in 2007. At 282 percent of GDP, China&#x27;s debt as a share of GDP, while manageable, is larger than that of the United States or Germany. Three developments are potentially worrisome: half of all loans are linked, directly or indirectly, to China&#x27;s overheated real-estate market; unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new lending; and the debt of many local governments is probably unsustainable. However, MGI calculates that China&#x27;s government has the capacity to bail out the financial sector should a property-related debt crisis develop. The challenge will be to contain future debt increases and reduce the risks of such a crisis, without putting the brakes on economic growth.</p> <hr/> <p>These challenges need to be addressed. Yet if, as it appears, economies need ever-larger amounts of debt to grow, and deleveraging is rare and increasingly difficult, they may also need to learn to live more safely with high debt. That will require new approaches to manage and monitor it, to reduce the risk of crises, and to resolve private-sector defaults efficiently. Policy makers will need to consider more ways to reduce government debt, and it may be time to reevaluate how incentives in the tax system encourage the amassing of debt. When there are signs of credit bubbles, regulators can seek to cool markets with countercyclical measures, such as tighter loan-to-value rules and higher capital requirements for banks. Debt undoubtedly remains an essential tool for financing economic growth. But how it is created, used, monitored, and (when necessary) discharged still needs improvement.</p> <p><em>This is the third of three McKinsey Global Institute reports on this issue. The others are</em> <a href="/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/debt-and-deleveraging-the-global-credit-bubble-update">Debt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences</a> <em>(July 2011) and</em> <a href="/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/uneven-progress-on-the-path-to-growth">Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth</a> <em>(January 2012).</em></p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong>Richard Dobbs</strong> and <strong>Lola Woetzel</strong> are directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, where <strong>Susan Lund</strong> is a partner; <strong>Mina Mutafchieva</strong> is a consultant in McKinsey's Antwerp office.</p> <p><strong>Correction:</strong></p> <p> A previous version of this report included incorrect data for Sweden's government and corporate debt. The report was updated on February 5 and now correctly shows Sweden's government debt as 42 percent of GDP and corporate debt as 165 percent of GDP as of Q2 2014.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Explore a career with us</h5><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--align-center___ar3mu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/careers/search-jobs" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--secondary___Boipq_2734c4f mdc-c-button--size-large___jwpUy_2734c4f" aria-label="Search Openings" data-layer-event-prefix="CTA Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="careers" data-layer-subcategory="search" data-layer-text="Search Openings"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Search Openings</span></a></div></div></section></div></main></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="StandalonePromo" class="RelatedArticle_mck-c-article-related__GGA76 mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="related-articles"><div class="mdc-o-container__wrapper is-wrapped mdc-u-spaced-mobile"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Related Articles</h5><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-3 RelatedArticle_items-container__s2uD0"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/uneven-progress-on-the-path-to-growth" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-debt-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="dede12_frth" class="picture-uniqueKey-debt-0" src="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/global%20capital%20markets/uneven%20progress%20on%20the%20path%20to%20growth/dede12_frth.jpg?cq=50&amp;mw=767&amp;car=16:9&amp;cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Report - 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High government debt in advanced economies, mounting household debt, and the rapid rise of China\u0026rsquo;s debt are areas of potential concern."}},"sEODescription":{"value":""},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2015-02-01T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[DownloadsSidebar]] \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSeven years after\u003c/strong\u003e the bursting of a global credit bubble resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, debt continues to grow. In fact, rather than reducing indebtedness, or deleveraging, all major economies today have higher levels of borrowing relative to GDP than they did in 2007. Global debt in these years has grown by $57 trillion, raising the ratio of debt to GDP by 17 percentage points (Exhibit 1). That poses new risks to financial stability and may undermine global economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[exhibit 1]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eA new McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report, \u003cem\u003eDebt and (not much) deleveraging\u003c/em\u003e, examines the evolution of debt across 47 countries\u0026mdash;22 advanced and 25 developing\u0026mdash;and assesses the implications of higher leverage in the global economy and in specific sectors and countries. The analysis, which follows our July 2011 report \u003cem\u003e\u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/debt-and-deleveraging-the-global-credit-bubble-update\"\u003eDebt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e and our January 2012 report \u003cem\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/uneven-progress-on-the-path-to-growth\"\u003e\u003cem\u003eDebt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/a\u003e, focuses on the debt of the \"real economy\": governments, nonfinancial corporations, and households. It finds that debt-to-GDP ratios have risen in all 22 advanced economies in the sample, by more than 50 percentage points in many cases (Exhibit 2).\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[exhibit 2]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn our study, we pinpoint three areas of emerging risk: the rise of government debt, which in some countries has reached such high levels that new ways will be needed to reduce it; the continued rise in household debt\u0026mdash;and housing prices\u0026mdash;to new peaks in Northern Europe and some Asian countries; and the quadrupling of China's debt, fueled by real estate and shadow banking, in just seven years.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[audio podcast]]\n\n\u003cp\u003eHere's a closer look at those challenges, as well as some innovations that could help global economies to live safely with their current levels of debt and to avoid future crises:\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGovernment debt is unsustainably high in some countries.\u003c/strong\u003e Since 2007, government debt has grown by $25 trillion. It will continue to rise in many countries, given current economic fundamentals. Some of this debt, incurred with the encouragement of world leaders to finance bailouts and stimulus programs, stems from the crisis. Debt also rose as a result of the recession and the weak recovery. For six of the most highly indebted countries, starting the process of deleveraging would require implausibly large increases in real-GDP growth or extremely deep fiscal adjustments. To reduce government debt, countries may need to consider new approaches, such as more extensive asset sales, one-time taxes on wealth, and more efficient debt-restructuring programs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHousehold debt is reaching new peaks.\u003c/strong\u003e Only in the core crisis countries\u0026mdash;Ireland, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States\u0026mdash;have households deleveraged. In many others, household debt-to-income ratios have continued to rise. They exceed the peak levels in the crisis countries before 2008 in some cases, including such advanced economies as Australia, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands, as well as Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand. These countries want to avoid property-related debt crises like those of 2008. To manage high levels of household debt safely, they need more flexible mortgage contracts, clearer personal-bankruptcy rules, and tighter lending standards and macroprudential rules.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n[[Disruptor1Up dis1]]\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eChina's debt has quadrupled since 2007.\u003c/strong\u003e Fueled by real estate and shadow banking, China's total debt has nearly quadrupled, rising to $28 trillion by mid-2014, from $7 trillion in 2007. At 282 percent of GDP, China's debt as a share of GDP, while manageable, is larger than that of the United States or Germany. Three developments are potentially worrisome: half of all loans are linked, directly or indirectly, to China's overheated real-estate market; unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new lending; and the debt of many local governments is probably unsustainable. However, MGI calculates that China's government has the capacity to bail out the financial sector should a property-related debt crisis develop. The challenge will be to contain future debt increases and reduce the risks of such a crisis, without putting the brakes on economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eThese challenges need to be addressed. Yet if, as it appears, economies need ever-larger amounts of debt to grow, and deleveraging is rare and increasingly difficult, they may also need to learn to live more safely with high debt. That will require new approaches to manage and monitor it, to reduce the risk of crises, and to resolve private-sector defaults efficiently. Policy makers will need to consider more ways to reduce government debt, and it may be time to reevaluate how incentives in the tax system encourage the amassing of debt. When there are signs of credit bubbles, regulators can seek to cool markets with countercyclical measures, such as tighter loan-to-value rules and higher capital requirements for banks. Debt undoubtedly remains an essential tool for financing economic growth. But how it is created, used, monitored, and (when necessary) discharged still needs improvement.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis is the third of three McKinsey Global Institute reports on this issue. The others are\u003c/em\u003e \u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/debt-and-deleveraging-the-global-credit-bubble-update\"\u003eDebt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences\u003c/a\u003e \u003cem\u003e(July 2011) and\u003c/em\u003e \u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/uneven-progress-on-the-path-to-growth\"\u003eDebt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth\u003c/a\u003e \u003cem\u003e(January 2012).\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"AllUsers"},"value":{"value":"All Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Report"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":{"name":"MGI Research","displayName":"MGI Research","title":{"value":"MGI Research"},"relatedlinks":{"url":"/mgi/overview"},"landinglinks":{"jsonValue":{"value":[]}}}},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2015-02-01T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRichard Dobbs\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eLola Woetzel\u003c/strong\u003e are directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, where \u003cstrong\u003eSusan Lund\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner; \u003cstrong\u003eMina Mutafchieva\u003c/strong\u003e is a consultant in McKinsey's Antwerp office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCorrection:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\nA previous version of this report included incorrect data for Sweden's government and corporate debt. The report was updated on February 5 and now correctly shows Sweden's government debt as 42 percent of GDP and corporate debt as 165 percent of GDP as of Q2 2014.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"F9B7720B53F34DE6A9BF8164649C316C","name":"Richard Dobbs","authorTitle":{"value":"Richard Dobbs"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"F705D832BF794C45986E8315BCD25124","name":"Susan Lund","authorTitle":{"value":"Susan Lund"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"548F5B4C050F45D0B61B709203DA7E52","name":"Lola Woetzel","authorTitle":{"value":"Lola Woetzel"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"Lola Woetzel","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/lola woetzel/lola woetzel_headshot_988x741.jpg"},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"BD9180D8119243118D48D538DBB4ABED","name":"Mina Mutafchieva","authorTitle":{"value":"Mina Mutafchieva"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":{"name":"MGI Research"}},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth"},"url":{"path":"/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/uneven-progress-on-the-path-to-growth"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Report"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Report"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Reducing debt in mature economies continues to be a long and slow process. 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