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Guinnane and Jochen Streb </title>  <meta itemprop="name" content="Bismarck to No Effect: Fertility Decline and the Introduction of Social Insurance in Prussia"> <meta property="og:title" content="Bismarck to No Effect: Fertility Decline and the Introduction of Social Insurance in Prussia"> <meta name="twitter:title" content="Bismarck to No Effect: Fertility Decline and the Introduction of Social Insurance in Prussia"> <meta property="article:author" content="Timothy W. Guinnane"> <meta name="author" content="Timothy W. Guinnane"> <meta property="article:author" content="Jochen Streb"> <meta name="author" content="Jochen Streb"> <meta name="robots" content="noodp, noydir"> <meta name="description" content="Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old age, then state programs that provide insurance against these events should induce couples to substitute away from children in the allocation of wealth. We test this claim using the introduction of social insurance in Germany in the 1880s and 1890s. Bismarck’s social-insurance system provided health insurance, workplace-accident insurance, and old age pensions to a majority of the working population. The German case appeals because the social insurance program started on a large scale and was compulsory for covered classes of workers, and because fertility in Germany in this period was still relatively high. Focusing on the state of Prussia, we estimate differences-in-differences models that ask whether marriage and marital fertility reacted to the introduction or extension of the main social insurance programs. For Prussia as a whole we find little impact"> <meta itemprop="description" content="Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old age, then state programs that provide insurance against these events should induce couples to substitute away from children in the allocation of wealth. We test this claim using the introduction of social insurance in Germany in the 1880s and 1890s. Bismarck’s social-insurance system provided health insurance, workplace-accident insurance, and old age pensions to a majority of the working population. The German case appeals because the social insurance program started on a large scale and was compulsory for covered classes of workers, and because fertility in Germany in this period was still relatively high. Focusing on the state of Prussia, we estimate differences-in-differences models that ask whether marriage and marital fertility reacted to the introduction or extension of the main social insurance programs. For Prussia as a whole we find little impact"> <meta name="twitter:description" content="Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old age, then state programs that provide insurance against these events should induce couples to substitute away from children in the allocation of wealth. We test this claim using the introduction of social insurance in Germany in the 1880s and 1890s. Bismarck’s social-insurance system provided health insurance, workplace-accident insurance, and old age pensions to a majority of the working population. The German case appeals because the social insurance program started on a large scale and was compulsory for covered classes of workers, and because fertility in Germany in this period was still relatively high. Focusing on the state of Prussia, we estimate differences-in-differences models that ask whether marriage and marital fertility reacted to the introduction or extension of the main social insurance programs. For Prussia as a whole we find little impact"> <meta property="og:description" content="Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old age, then state programs that provide insurance against these events should induce couples to substitute away from children in the allocation of wealth. We test this claim using the introduction of social insurance in Germany in the 1880s and 1890s. Bismarck’s social-insurance system provided health insurance, workplace-accident insurance, and old age pensions to a majority of the working population. The German case appeals because the social insurance program started on a large scale and was compulsory for covered classes of workers, and because fertility in Germany in this period was still relatively high. Focusing on the state of Prussia, we estimate differences-in-differences models that ask whether marriage and marital fertility reacted to the introduction or extension of the main social insurance programs. For Prussia as a whole we find little impact"> <meta name="bepress_citation_series_title" content="Discussion Papers"> <meta name="bepress_citation_author" content="Guinnane, Timothy W."> <meta name="bepress_citation_author" content="Streb, Jochen"> <meta name="bepress_citation_title" content="Bismarck to No Effect: Fertility Decline and the Introduction of Social Insurance in Prussia"> <meta name="bepress_citation_date" content="2019">   <meta name="bepress_citation_pdf_url" content="https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2076&context=egcenter-discussion-paper-series"> <meta name="bepress_citation_abstract_html_url" content="https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/egcenter-discussion-paper-series/1077"> <meta name="bepress_citation_online_date" content="2020/4/10"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width">  <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary">  <meta property="og:type" content="article"> <meta property="og:url" 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href='https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/do/search/?q=author%3A%22Timothy%20W.%20Guinnane%22&start=0&context=3705184'><strong>Timothy W. Guinnane</strong></a><br /> <a href='https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/do/search/?q=author%3A%22Jochen%20Streb%22&start=0&context=3705184'><strong>Jochen Streb</strong></a><br /> </p></div> <div class='clear'></div> <div id='document_type' class='element'> <h2 class='field-heading'>Document Type</h2> <p>Discussion Paper</p> </div> <div class='clear'></div> <div id='publication_date' class='element'> <h2 class='field-heading'>Date of Paper</h2> <p>11-2019</p> </div> <div class='clear'></div> <div id='abstract' class='element'> <h2 class='field-heading'>Abstract</h2> <p>Economists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old age, then state programs that provide insurance against these events should induce couples to substitute away from children in the allocation of wealth. We test this claim using the introduction of social insurance in Germany in the 1880s and 1890s. Bismarck’s social-insurance system provided health insurance, workplace-accident insurance, and old age pensions to a majority of the working population. The German case appeals because the social insurance program started on a large scale and was compulsory for covered classes of workers, and because fertility in Germany in this period was still relatively high. Focusing on the state of Prussia, we estimate differences-in-differences models that ask whether marriage and marital fertility reacted to the introduction or extension of the main social insurance programs. For Prussia as a whole we find little impact</p> </div> <div class='clear'></div> <div id='recommended_citation' class='element'> <h2 class='field-heading'>Recommended Citation</h2> <p> Guinnane, Timothy W. and Streb, Jochen, "Bismarck to No Effect: Fertility Decline and the Introduction of Social Insurance in Prussia" (2019). <em>Discussion Papers</em>. 1077. <br> https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/egcenter-discussion-paper-series/1077 </p> </div> <div class='clear'></div> </div> </div> <div id='beta_7-3'>     <div class="aside download-button"> <a id="pdf" class="btn" href="https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2076&context=egcenter-discussion-paper-series" title="PDF (1.9 MB) opens in new window" target="_blank" > <i class="icon-download-alt" aria-hidden="true"></i> Download </a> </div>         <div id="article-stats" class="aside hidden"> <p class="article-downloads-wrapper hidden"><span id="article-downloads"></span> DOWNLOADS</p> <p 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