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data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="AnchoredHero" class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__SfYQE ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default--without-image__h_H_O"><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__wrapper-content__XOe9C"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-1 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-10"><div><h1 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-2 mck-u-animation-slide-down ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__heading__bv6rL"><div>Strategic planning: Three tips for 2009</div></h1></div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 mck-u-animation-blur-in-800 ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__description__sjoe9"><div><time datetime="2009-04-01T00:00:00Z">April 1, 2009</time> | Article</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-9"><span> </span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Renée Dye </span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">Olivier Sibony<span> </span></span></span><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__author__XdrlD"><span class="AuthorsByLine_mck-c-authors-byline__no-wrap__Ced0j">S. Patrick Viguerie</span></span></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-8 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11 ArticleContent_mck-c-article-content__share-tools__kWRRw"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Even in these tumultuous times, strategic planning doesn’t have to be an exercise in anxiety—or futility.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/strategic planning three tips for 2009/strategic planning three tips for 2009.pdf" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_blank" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="strategic-planning three tips for 2009" data-layer-report-name="strategic-planning three tips for 2009>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (PDF-571 KB)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>Strategic-planning season</strong> has arrived for many companies, and it couldn’t be more different than it has been in years past. Gone are the days of linear trend-extrapolation exercises that produce base, upside, and downside cases. Strategists, now facing the most profoundly uncertain times in their careers, are creating disaster scenarios that would have been unthinkable until recently and making the preservation of cash integral to their strategies.</p> <p>Most strategists we know are avoiding the obvious mistakes, such as planning as usual or, conversely, eliminating essential strategy-development activities or even strategic planning itself. Nonetheless, strategists remain deeply—and understandably—concerned that the priorities emerging from the annual planning rituals won’t address the demands of today’s tumultuous environment.</p> <p>These are uncharted waters, and no one has a clear map for sailing through them. It’s clear that scenario planning, a well-established technique for coping with uncertainty, should play a critical role this year, but executing successfully has never been as challenging as it is now. Most companies will have to consider more variables and involve more decision makers than they have in the past. Strategists will also need to place a greater emphasis on measurement—the only way to recognize when changing conditions merit quick strategic adjustments. Finally, the focus on new or surprising scenarios shouldn’t obscure relevant long-term trends or devalue important existing strategies.</p> <h2>Be realistic about scenario planning</h2> <p>In a highly uncertain environment, the advantages of scenario planning are clear: since no one base case can be regarded as probable, it’s necessary to develop plans on the assumption that several different futures are possible and to focus attention on the underlying drivers of uncertainty.</p> <p>Today’s pervasive uncertainty complicates scenario-planning efforts: the number of variables at play—and the range of plausible outcomes—have exploded in the past year. Consider, for example, the predicament of an industrial supplier that is not only heavily exposed to commercial and residential real estate but also has many government customers. For this company, the critical uncertainties include the direction of the commercial-credit and mortgage markets, housing prices, tax revenues, and government stimulus spending. Different outcomes for each of these uncertainties produce vastly different paths for the business. Since the heart of scenario planning—crafting a number of strategies for different outcomes—has become significantly more complex,<a rel="#footnote1" class="link-footnote" href="#"><sup>1</sup></a> <span class="tooltip" id="footnote1" style="display:none"><span class="footnote-content"><span class="footnote-number">1.</span><span class="footnote-text"> See Lowell Bryan and Diana Farrell, “<a href="http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_page.aspx?ar=2263">Leading through uncertainty</a>,” mckinseyquarterly.com, December 2008.</span><span class="clear"></span> </span><span class="footnote-bottom"></span></span>strategists should prepare for a more demanding process of gathering information, exploring possibilities, and plain old hard thinking.</p> <p>Senior executives outside the strategic-planning group—even those accustomed to developing scenarios—may find the diversity and complexity of this year’s scenarios bewildering. It’s critical to bring such executives into the process early: for example, by kicking off the planning process with a scenario-development exercise involving the full senior team. Similarly, as the process of reviewing business units gets under way, a company can inculcate an appreciation of the threats it faces and of its collective strategic response by inviting executives from a number of divisions to participate in the proceedings—rather than hold one-off events between the senior team and the leader of each individual unit.</p> <h2>Intensify monitoring </h2> <p>Depending on how events unfold, the industrial supplier mentioned above could make radically different moves. If the commercial and residential real-estate markets stabilized, it could expect reduced sales within those channels until the economy rebounded, but its business model would remain fundamentally the same. If those markets softened further, the bulk of the company’s market opportunity, for the foreseeable future, would lie in infrastructure investments underwritten by government stimulus spending. In that case, the company would need to redeploy its sales resources to government-oriented business and focus on maximizing sales there.</p> <p>The company’s strategy, in short, must account for many more contingencies than it has until recently. Since the effectiveness of such a strategy depends on an organization’s ability to adjust rapidly as the fog starts to lift, managers must identify and intensively monitor key indicators suggesting which scenario might unfold. For the industrial supplier, some of the most important indicators are sales of new and existing homes, foreclosure rates, mortgage interest rates, new building starts, and announcements of “shovel ready” government projects. Of course, the company’s managers always followed such indicators, but the strategic-planning process typically collapsed their potential variations into average market growth forecasts. Given the present heightened uncertainty, however, the strategy group decomposed the average forecast into its individual elements to make the possible outcome for each of the indicators more transparent and to monitor them in greater detail.</p> <p>There’s no occasion like the strategic-planning process to get a fix on such indicators—a fix that should also help companies make ongoing budget decisions in real time. That’s critical, because it makes no sense to set each operating unit’s budget allocation at the start of the fiscal year if cash is tight and corporate executives expect to dole it out carefully as plans become less uncertain. What companies need now is a dynamic “pay as you go” resource allocation process that conserves cash and encourages adherence to the strategic road map laid out in scenario planning.</p> <p>This year’s planning process should also generate unusually specific plans to monitor the performance of suppliers, customers, and competitors. As we’ve seen in the past six months, the most entrenched incumbents can plunge into financial distress with dizzying speed. Early intelligence helps companies to recognize when they should negotiate more favorable supply terms, line up alternatives to risky suppliers, offer kinder credit terms to critical customers, accelerate collections from faltering ones, or scoop up all or part of vulnerable competitors. Leading indicators of distress include such familiar signals as delinquent accounts payable, downgraded debt ratings, large share price declines, late inventory deliveries, or lower-quality goods or materials. These signs, though all too familiar to operating managers, are typically addressed in an ad hoc way, not in the strategic-planning process. This year is different.</p> <h2>Look beyond the crisis </h2> <p>Given the vastness of the economic change now under way, the temptation for many planners will be to gaze, mesmerized, at the unfolding crisis. That’s a mistake, for at least two reasons.</p> <p>First, devastating as the current downturn may be, it cannot roll back fundamental market trends—such as the aging of consumers in Europe and North America or the continued economic development of Brazil, China, India, and Russia—which will continue to create strategic opportunities and threats. Managers must focus their eyes—and resources—on these trends no matter what happens.</p> <p>Second, planners who become fixated on current economic events run the risk of overlooking a core responsibility: evaluating the effectiveness of current strategies. Although the crisis may force companies to suspend or redirect some of them, others will remain relevant even in the changed environment. This year’s strategic-planning process is a time to encourage managers to sort out which current strategies the crisis has helped, hurt, or failed to affect and to ensure that a system and metrics are in place to track their performance. While all this may sound like common sense, extreme uncertainty makes it easy to overlook.</p> <p>One company that’s staying the course is McDonald’s, which has profited in the downturn from its low-cost menu items and is enjoying its most robust same-store sales growth in years. Meanwhile, senior management has remained focused on longer-term strategies involving expensive store renovations, operational overhauls, high-end coffee products, and healthful menu options. Managers elsewhere can learn valuable lessons from the company’s efforts to benefit from the current circumstances while sticking to longer-term strategies and the underlying trends (such as healthier lifestyles) that they reflect.</p> <p>Despite the challenging times, this year’s strategic-planning process need not be an exercise in anxiety or futility. Developing scenarios in greater depth, monitoring strategies more rigorously, and remaining focused on the long term will all help strategists boost the odds of creating plans that can lead their companies through the turbulence. </p> <hr/> <h2>Strategic planning in a crisis: A <i>McKinsey Quarterly</i> Survey</h2> <p><em>Editor’s note. When we published this article in April 2009, we invited readers to take part in an online survey on changes in their companies’ strategic planning, given today’s challenging economic environment. Here is a summary of their responses.</em></p> <p>Executives are concerned that a new focus on near-term challenges may cause this year’s planning process to overlook long-term trends or preexisting strategies, according to the results of a <em>McKinsey Quarterly</em> survey on strategic planning.<a rel="#footnote2" class="link-footnote" href="#"><sup>2</sup></a> <span class="tooltip" id="footnote2" style="display:none"><span class="footnote-content"><span class="footnote-number">2.</span><span class="footnote-text"> The survey was conducted in April 2009 when this article was originally published. Responses were received from 594 executives, 46 percent of whom identified themselves as C-level executives and 30 percent as other senior executives.</span><span class="clear"></span> </span><span class="footnote-bottom"></span></span></p> <p>More than 80 percent of executives say their strategic-planning processes look different this year compared with last (Exhibit 1). The change executives say has been most significant is the adoption of a more rigorous approach to approving projects and capital spending, presumably with an eye toward managing cash carefully. Other significant changes include the creation of strategies that are more dynamic, focus on the short term, and that include more analyses.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>A different strategic-planning process</div></h5></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/strategic%20planning%20three%20tips%20for%202009/image_a%20different%20strategic%20planning%20process_1.jpg?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Image_A different strategic-planning process_1" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/strategic%20planning%20three%20tips%20for%202009/image_a%20different%20strategic%20planning%20process_1.jpg?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Scenario planning is becoming a leading part of the process. Over 50 percent of respondents say scenario planning either is playing a bigger role in their companies’ strategic planning this year or has been newly added to the process (Exhibit 2). And when asked to write in the element of their planning processes that has been most valuable in helping them cope with this year’s uncertain environment, more executives mention scenario planning than anything else. Nearly 60 percent of the respondents say their companies are monitoring progress against their strategic plans more frequently this year. Over 80 percent of respondents are assessing the progress of their strategic plans at least quarterly, with 50 percent doing so at least once a month (Exhibit 3).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Scenario planning in the spotlight</div></h5></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/strategic%20planning%20three%20tips%20for%202009/image_scenario%20planning%20in%20the%20spotlight_2.jpg?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Image_Scenario planning in the spotlight_2" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/strategic%20planning%20three%20tips%20for%202009/image_scenario%20planning%20in%20the%20spotlight_2.jpg?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 3</span></div><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>More frequent monitoring</div></h5></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/strategic%20planning%20three%20tips%20for%202009/image_more%20frequent%20monitoring_3.jpg?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Image_More frequent monitoring_3" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/strategic%20planning%20three%20tips%20for%202009/image_more%20frequent%20monitoring_3.jpg?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>In short, many strategists seem to be rapidly adjusting their planning processes to cope with the changed economic environment. Important as these adjustments may be, their nature also raise a major question in the minds of many strategists: is the crisis atmosphere undermining focus on all but the immediate future? More than 50 percent of executives, in fact, express worry about not striking the right balance between near-term challenges and long-term strategic priorities. The perennial challenge of striking this balance has become particularly acute this year. </p> <p></p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong>Renée Dye</strong> is a consultant in McKinsey’s Atlanta office, where <strong>Patrick Viguerie</strong> is a director; <strong>Olivier Sibony</strong> is a director in the Paris office.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Explore a career with us</h5><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--align-center___ar3mu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/careers/search-jobs" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--secondary___Boipq_2734c4f mdc-c-button--size-large___jwpUy_2734c4f" aria-label="Search Openings" data-layer-event-prefix="CTA Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="careers" data-layer-subcategory="search" data-layer-text="Search Openings"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Search Openings</span></a></div></div></section></div></main></div><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="StandalonePromo" class="RelatedArticle_mck-c-article-related__GGA76 mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="related-articles"><div class="mdc-o-container__wrapper is-wrapped mdc-u-spaced-mobile"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Related Articles</h5><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-1 RelatedArticle_items-container__s2uD0"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg Card_card__diA2r Card_hover-effect__RGb9b mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/a-fresh-look-at-strategy-under-uncertainty-an-interview" class="mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Card_wrapper-image__8b4P6"><style>.picture-uniqueKey-afre-0 { aspect-ratio: 16/9 }</style><img alt="" class="picture-uniqueKey-afre-0" src="/next-static/images/module_item_placeholder.png?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-6"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Interview - <i>McKinsey Quarterly</i></span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-3"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/a-fresh-look-at-strategy-under-uncertainty-an-interview" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><div>A fresh look at strategy under uncertainty: An interview</div></a></h6></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"Strategic planning Three tips for 2009","displayName":"Strategic planning Three tips for 2009","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"4c2f85e4-7c00-4647-9281-50f34182a806","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Strategic planning: Three tips for 2009"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":""},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Even in these tumultuous times, strategic planning doesn’t have to be an exercise in anxiety—or futility."}},"sEODescription":{"value":""},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2009-04-01T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[DownloadsSidebar]] \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eStrategic-planning season\u003c/strong\u003e has arrived for many companies, and it couldn\u0026rsquo;t be more different than it has been in years past. Gone are the days of linear trend-extrapolation exercises that produce base, upside, and downside cases. Strategists, now facing the most profoundly uncertain times in their careers, are creating disaster scenarios that would have been unthinkable until recently and making the preservation of cash integral to their strategies.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eMost strategists we know are avoiding the obvious mistakes, such as planning as usual or, conversely, eliminating essential strategy-development activities or even strategic planning itself. Nonetheless, strategists remain deeply\u0026mdash;and understandably\u0026mdash;concerned that the priorities emerging from the annual planning rituals won\u0026rsquo;t address the demands of today\u0026rsquo;s tumultuous environment.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eThese are uncharted waters, and no one has a clear map for sailing through them. It\u0026rsquo;s clear that scenario planning, a well-established technique for coping with uncertainty, should play a critical role this year, but executing successfully has never been as challenging as it is now. Most companies will have to consider more variables and involve more decision makers than they have in the past. Strategists will also need to place a greater emphasis on measurement\u0026mdash;the only way to recognize when changing conditions merit quick strategic adjustments. Finally, the focus on new or surprising scenarios shouldn\u0026rsquo;t obscure relevant long-term trends or devalue important existing strategies.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003ch2\u003eBe realistic about scenario planning\u003c/h2\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eIn a highly uncertain environment, the advantages of scenario planning are clear: since no one base case can be regarded as probable, it\u0026rsquo;s necessary to develop plans on the assumption that several different futures are possible and to focus attention on the underlying drivers of uncertainty.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eToday\u0026rsquo;s pervasive uncertainty complicates scenario-planning efforts: the number of variables at play\u0026mdash;and the range of plausible outcomes\u0026mdash;have exploded in the past year. Consider, for example, the predicament of an industrial supplier that is not only heavily exposed to commercial and residential real estate but also has many government customers. For this company, the critical uncertainties include the direction of the commercial-credit and mortgage markets, housing prices, tax revenues, and government stimulus spending. Different outcomes for each of these uncertainties produce vastly different paths for the business. Since the heart of scenario planning\u0026mdash;crafting a number of strategies for different outcomes\u0026mdash;has become significantly more complex,\u003ca href=\"#\" class=\"link-footnote\" onclick=\"return false;\" rel=\"#footnote1\"\u003e\u003csup\u003e1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/a\u003e \u003cspan style=\"display: none;\" id=\"footnote1\" class=\"tooltip\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-content\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-number\"\u003e1.\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-text\"\u003e See Lowell Bryan and Diana Farrell, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_page.aspx?ar=2263\"\u003eLeading through uncertainty\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; mckinseyquarterly.com, December 2008.\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"clear\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-bottom\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003estrategists should prepare for a more demanding process of gathering information, exploring possibilities, and plain old hard thinking.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eSenior executives outside the strategic-planning group\u0026mdash;even those accustomed to developing scenarios\u0026mdash;may find the diversity and complexity of this year\u0026rsquo;s scenarios bewildering. It\u0026rsquo;s critical to bring such executives into the process early: for example, by kicking off the planning process with a scenario-development exercise involving the full senior team. Similarly, as the process of reviewing business units gets under way, a company can inculcate an appreciation of the threats it faces and of its collective strategic response by inviting executives from a number of divisions to participate in the proceedings\u0026mdash;rather than hold one-off events between the senior team and the leader of each individual unit.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003ch2\u003eIntensify monitoring \u003c/h2\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eDepending on how events unfold, the industrial supplier mentioned above could make radically different moves. If the commercial and residential real-estate markets stabilized, it could expect reduced sales within those channels until the economy rebounded, but its business model would remain fundamentally the same. If those markets softened further, the bulk of the company\u0026rsquo;s market opportunity, for the foreseeable future, would lie in infrastructure investments underwritten by government stimulus spending. In that case, the company would need to redeploy its sales resources to government-oriented business and focus on maximizing sales there.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eThe company\u0026rsquo;s strategy, in short, must account for many more contingencies than it has until recently. Since the effectiveness of such a strategy depends on an organization\u0026rsquo;s ability to adjust rapidly as the fog starts to lift, managers must identify and intensively monitor key indicators suggesting which scenario might unfold. For the industrial supplier, some of the most important indicators are sales of new and existing homes, foreclosure rates, mortgage interest rates, new building starts, and announcements of \u0026ldquo;shovel ready\u0026rdquo; government projects. Of course, the company\u0026rsquo;s managers always followed such indicators, but the strategic-planning process typically collapsed their potential variations into average market growth forecasts. Given the present heightened uncertainty, however, the strategy group decomposed the average forecast into its individual elements to make the possible outcome for each of the indicators more transparent and to monitor them in greater detail.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eThere\u0026rsquo;s no occasion like the strategic-planning process to get a fix on such indicators\u0026mdash;a fix that should also help companies make ongoing budget decisions in real time. That\u0026rsquo;s critical, because it makes no sense to set each operating unit\u0026rsquo;s budget allocation at the start of the fiscal year if cash is tight and corporate executives expect to dole it out carefully as plans become less uncertain. What companies need now is a dynamic \u0026ldquo;pay as you go\u0026rdquo; resource allocation process that conserves cash and encourages adherence to the strategic road map laid out in scenario planning.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eThis year\u0026rsquo;s planning process should also generate unusually specific plans to monitor the performance of suppliers, customers, and competitors. As we\u0026rsquo;ve seen in the past six months, the most entrenched incumbents can plunge into financial distress with dizzying speed. Early intelligence helps companies to recognize when they should negotiate more favorable supply terms, line up alternatives to risky suppliers, offer kinder credit terms to critical customers, accelerate collections from faltering ones, or scoop up all or part of vulnerable competitors. Leading indicators of distress include such familiar signals as delinquent accounts payable, downgraded debt ratings, large share price declines, late inventory deliveries, or lower-quality goods or materials. These signs, though all too familiar to operating managers, are typically addressed in an ad hoc way, not in the strategic-planning process. This year is different.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003ch2\u003eLook beyond the crisis \u003c/h2\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eGiven the vastness of the economic change now under way, the temptation for many planners will be to gaze, mesmerized, at the unfolding crisis. That\u0026rsquo;s a mistake, for at least two reasons.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eFirst, devastating as the current downturn may be, it cannot roll back fundamental market trends\u0026mdash;such as the aging of consumers in Europe and North America or the continued economic development of Brazil, China, India, and Russia\u0026mdash;which will continue to create strategic opportunities and threats. Managers must focus their eyes\u0026mdash;and resources\u0026mdash;on these trends no matter what happens.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eSecond, planners who become fixated on current economic events run the risk of overlooking a core responsibility: evaluating the effectiveness of current strategies. Although the crisis may force companies to suspend or redirect some of them, others will remain relevant even in the changed environment. This year\u0026rsquo;s strategic-planning process is a time to encourage managers to sort out which current strategies the crisis has helped, hurt, or failed to affect and to ensure that a system and metrics are in place to track their performance. While all this may sound like common sense, extreme uncertainty makes it easy to overlook.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eOne company that\u0026rsquo;s staying the course is McDonald\u0026rsquo;s, which has profited in the downturn from its low-cost menu items and is enjoying its most robust same-store sales growth in years. Meanwhile, senior management has remained focused on longer-term strategies involving expensive store renovations, operational overhauls, high-end coffee products, and healthful menu options. Managers elsewhere can learn valuable lessons from the company\u0026rsquo;s efforts to benefit from the current circumstances while sticking to longer-term strategies and the underlying trends (such as healthier lifestyles) that they reflect.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eDespite the challenging times, this year\u0026rsquo;s strategic-planning process need not be an exercise in anxiety or futility. Developing scenarios in greater depth, monitoring strategies more rigorously, and remaining focused on the long term will all help strategists boost the odds of creating plans that can lead their companies through the turbulence. \u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003chr /\u003e\r\n\u003ch2\u003eStrategic planning in a crisis: A \u003ci\u003eMcKinsey Quarterly\u003c/i\u003e Survey\u003c/h2\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eEditor\u0026rsquo;s note. When we published this article in April 2009, we invited readers to take part in an online survey on changes in their companies\u0026rsquo; strategic planning, given today\u0026rsquo;s challenging economic environment. Here is a summary of their responses.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eExecutives are concerned that a new focus on near-term challenges may cause this year\u0026rsquo;s planning process to overlook long-term trends or preexisting strategies, according to the results of a \u003cem\u003eMcKinsey Quarterly\u003c/em\u003e survey on strategic planning.\u003ca href=\"#\" class=\"link-footnote\" onclick=\"return false;\" rel=\"#footnote2\"\u003e\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/a\u003e \u003cspan style=\"display: none;\" id=\"footnote2\" class=\"tooltip\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-content\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-number\"\u003e2.\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-text\"\u003e The survey was conducted in April 2009 when this article was originally published. Responses were received from 594 executives, 46 percent of whom identified themselves as C-level executives and 30 percent as other senior executives.\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"clear\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\"footnote-bottom\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\r\n\u003cp\u003eMore than 80 percent of executives say their strategic-planning processes look different this year compared with last (Exhibit 1). The change executives say has been most significant is the adoption of a more rigorous approach to approving projects and capital spending, presumably with an eye toward managing cash carefully. Other significant changes include the creation of strategies that are more dynamic, focus on the short term, and that include more analyses.\u003c/p\u003e\r\n[[exhibit 1]]\r\n\u003cp\u003eScenario planning is becoming a leading part of the process. Over 50 percent of respondents say scenario planning either is playing a bigger role in their companies\u0026rsquo; strategic planning this year or has been newly added to the process (Exhibit 2). And when asked to write in the element of their planning processes that has been most valuable in helping them cope with this year\u0026rsquo;s uncertain environment, more executives mention scenario planning than anything else. Nearly 60 percent of the respondents say their companies are monitoring progress against their strategic plans more frequently this year. Over 80 percent of respondents are assessing the progress of their strategic plans at least quarterly, with 50 percent doing so at least once a month (Exhibit 3).\u003c/p\u003e\r\n[[exhibit 2]] [[exhibit 3]]\r\n\u003cp\u003eIn short, many strategists seem to be rapidly adjusting their planning processes to cope with the changed economic environment. Important as these adjustments may be, their nature also raise a major question in the minds of many strategists: is the crisis atmosphere undermining focus on all but the immediate future? More than 50 percent of executives, in fact, express worry about not striking the right balance between near-term challenges and long-term strategic priorities. The perennial challenge of striking this balance has become particularly acute this year. \u003c/p\u003e\r\n\r\n\u003cp\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":null},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":false},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2009-04-01T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRen\u0026eacute;e Dye\u003c/strong\u003e is a consultant in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Atlanta office, where \u003cstrong\u003ePatrick Viguerie\u003c/strong\u003e is a director; \u003cstrong\u003eOlivier Sibony\u003c/strong\u003e is a director in the Paris office.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"A6D76200562E47E4BBA8E9A16EA128B5","name":"Renee Dye","authorTitle":{"value":"Renée Dye"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"9BBA636B914342728A0044404854F398","name":"Olivier Sibony","authorTitle":{"value":"Olivier Sibony"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"1A6035B3C03B461F9B579504D978C9B4","name":"Author Alias"},"authorTitle":{"value":"S. Patrick Viguerie"},"aliasProfileImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"author":{"id":"02593F341B504810A8F4A7E1AB859404","name":"Patrick Viguerie","authorTitle":{"value":"Patrick Viguerie"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":{"name":"McKinsey Quarterly"}},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"A fresh look at strategy under uncertainty: An interview"},"url":{"path":"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/a-fresh-look-at-strategy-under-uncertainty-an-interview"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Interview"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Interview"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Although even the highest levels of uncertainty don’t prevent 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