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印度锰矿价格是否将在12月份出现调整？-我的钢铁网
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<p><strong>印度</strong><strong>国内</strong><strong>锰</strong><strong>矿产量过剩令矿商担忧</strong></p> <p><strong>锰合金</strong><strong>出口需求低迷进一步</strong><strong>对价格造成压力</strong></p> <p><strong>钢铁市场疲软影响锰合金销</strong><strong>量</strong></p> <p>受主要矿商价格调整的影响，2024年11月初印度国内<a href='https://thj.m.mysteel.com/meng/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锰矿</a>价格出现下跌。</p> <p>印度锰矿商MOIL自11月1日起将Mn44%以上的锰矿石价格下调7%，将Mn44%以下的锰矿石（包括SMGR级和细粉级）价格下调1%。作为行业基准，MOIL的价格月环比下跌约1%至13382卢比/吨（158美元/吨），10月份的价格为13517卢比/吨（160美元/吨）。</p> <p>值得注意的是，MOIL的价格自7月份的21000卢比/吨（249美元/吨）以来已大幅下跌。到目前为止，9月份的价格处于八个月以来的最低点，为12874卢比/吨（152美元/吨）。</p> <p>展望12月份的市场，有几个因素将影响价格走势。下面对供需动态、全球价格走势和印度国内生产水平等关键驱动因素进行分析。</p> <p><strong>进口锰矿报价</strong><strong>跌至</strong><strong>五年</strong><strong>来</strong><strong>新低：</strong>目前，印度进口高品位锰矿价格徘徊在5年多来的最低点，为4.06-4.36美元/吨度（锰品位为Mn44%和Mn46%）。南非Mn37%锰矿对印度的报价为3.96美元/吨度，这是自2024年2月底以来的最低价（8个月以来的最低价格）。这可能会影响印度国内价格下跌。</p> <p><strong>在中国需求低迷的情况下，主要矿商</strong><strong>下调价格</strong><strong>：</strong>这些报价的下跌是全球主要矿商下调报价所致。全球主要矿商South32 Ltd将2024年11月销售的Mn37%南非锰矿块的价格下调0.30美元/吨度，至3.70美元/吨度（CIF中国）。这一调整是受买方兴趣低迷和中国国内现货市场价格下跌的影响，从而影响了整体市场动态和预期。</p> <p>加蓬主要锰矿商Eramet Comilog宣布下调11月份装运的锰矿价格。Mn44.5%加蓬块的价格月环比下降1.05美元/吨度，至3.95美元/吨度（CIF中国）。同样，Mn43%加蓬籽的价格也月环比下降1.05美元/吨度，至3.75美元/吨度（CIF中国）。同样，由于中国需求减弱，这些价格也随之下调。事实上，在中国钢铁产量下降的情况下Eramet将其2024年的加蓬锰矿生产目标下调至600-650万吨（之前为650-700万吨）。</p> <p>因此，进入12月，进口锰矿价格可能会继续低迷，因为中国的基本面不会改变，尤其是深冬将至，建筑和钢铁需求都会受到抑制。中国是进口锰矿的最大消费国。今年截至10月，中国已进口近2500万吨锰矿。中国自身的市场动态自然会对全球锰矿价格产生影响。</p> <p><strong>印度</strong><strong>锰</strong><strong>矿产量上升：</strong> 2024年10月，印度锰矿产量月环比增长17%，至28万吨，9月份为24万吨。成品钢材需求低迷导致产量过剩，也可能对印度国内锰矿价格产生下行压力。</p> <p><strong>印度</strong><strong>国内锰合金价格处于10个月</strong><strong>来的</strong><strong>低点：</strong>2024年11月，印度锰合金主要生产中心-杜尔加布尔、赖布尔和维扎格的锰合金价格月环比下跌约3000卢比/吨（36美元/吨），跌至10个月低点。降价后，硅锰出厂价格跌至65300-66000卢比/吨（773-781美元/吨）。锰铁出厂价格徘徊在67000卢比/吨（793美元/吨）左右（赖布尔和杜尔加布尔）。因此，在需求疲软的情况下，冶炼厂在11月底前减产，以降低供应量。</p> <p>Sandur锰&铁矿有限公司(SMIORE)的拍卖会也受到这种压力。在11月20日的拍卖会上，27720吨Mn20-34%的锰矿仅售出35%。值得注意的是，与11月6日的拍卖相比，大多数锰矿（包括Mn28-30%的锰矿块）的出价（加权平均值）下降了17%。</p> <p>由于印度钢铁需求下滑，合金需求也随之下降。排灯节后备受期待的反弹仍未到来。</p> <p><strong>出口疲软进一步给价格带来压力：</strong> 2024年1月至10月，印度锰合金出口保持稳定，仅微增0.04万吨至1.50万吨，这进一步增加了冶炼厂的压力。印度生产的锰合金有近45%用于出口。欧盟、中东和北非地区以及日本等印度锰合金的主要买家需求有限，使价格承压。</p> <p>由于地缘政治紧张和经济不确定性，中东和北非地区的需求下降，买家限制购买。</p> <p>今年欧洲的询盘有限。由于俄乌冲突，该地区的市场仍在电力短缺和通货膨胀的中挣扎。这两个国家以最低的关税向欧盟地区提供电力，但冲突扰乱了这种态势。日本是印度的主要买家，该国已经减少粗钢产量，限制了对锰合金的需求。</p> <p><strong>展望</strong></p> <p>随着进口锰矿价格在达到历史最低水平后，稳定在略低于4美元/吨度（Mn37%南非<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/price/p-10457-031104-1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>块矿</a>）的水平，印度国内锰矿价格似乎有可能下降。这一调整可能是由印度国内矿商将其价格与全球基准保持一致所推动的。全球锰矿价格下跌可能会刺激进口量增加，而印度矿商希望避免这种情况。</p> <p>因此，短期来看，印度国内市场定价仍面临压力，以维持各品位产品的国际平价。</p> <p>来源：BigMint</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：杨蔚平 021-26093584 </br> 资讯监督：查佐栋 021-26093218 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> 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