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【财联社】昔日“小甜甜”变身“牛夫人”，碳纤维年内下跌四成，降价、产能过剩阴云笼罩如何破局？-我的钢铁网
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<p>两年前还处于卖方市场的碳纤维为何迅速沦落？业内人士对财联社记者表示，碳纤维新增产能如期释放，并且主要集中在低性能产品，行业不断内卷绞杀，降价出货成为唯一选择。此外，下游拓展不及预期，比如风电领域的应用无有效拓展。“高性能产品方面，国内企业距离海外企业产品差距仍十分明显，产品升级尚需时日。”有业内人士告诉财联社记者。</p> <p>该业内人士进一步表示，目前业内普遍对行业存在较为悲观的预期，“现在库存堆积，需求疲软，预测行业至少两年内不会好转。”国内某碳纤维上市公司相关负责人同样对财联社记者表示，预计行业低迷期会比较持久。“其他很多行业也经历了这个阶段，就看谁能坚持下去并取得突破了。”</p> <p>面对困局，何以破局？降低成本、产品升级、拓展应用成为业内的突破口。光威复材（300699.SZ）近日在互动平台表示，“珍惜碳纤维的每一个具备商业价值的应用场景”。中复神鹰（688295）则通过规模降本和产品升级两条腿向前跨越。中简科技(300777.SZ)同样正积极推进高端碳纤维产品ZT9H在航空、航天结构材料应用。</p> <p><strong>“黑色黄金”跌跌不休</strong></p> <p>碳纤维是一种性能优异的纤维材料，经过原丝生产和碳丝生产两大步骤制造而成，应用于航空航天、体育用品、风力发电、压力容器等多个领域。碳纤维的主要优点是强度高、密度小、耐高温、耐腐蚀等特性，被称为“黑色黄金”。</p> <p>因为供不应求，特别是国产化率极低，碳纤维经历过一段时间的高光时刻。“大约两年前吧，那时候国产碳纤维刚刚有点量，下游需求增速更快，行业完全处于卖方市场，下游客户想买一吨碳纤维，得想尽办法跟业务员拉关系。”</p> <p>如今，行业则迅速转入了冰点。<span style="color: #a52a2a;"><strong>据上海钢联数据，截至10月底，碳纤维市场均价为94.7元/千克（含税价）。其中，小丝束碳纤维T300(12K)价格为85元/千克，较年初下跌39%；T700(12K)价格为145元/千克，较年初下跌37%；大丝束碳纤维T300(48K/50K)的价格为72元/千克，价格较年初的下跌幅度超过小丝束。</strong></span></p> <p>产品价格下跌，相关上市公司业绩承压。光威复材2023年前三季度公司毛利率45.99%，同比下降6.57pct，主要非定型纤维市场竞争激烈，产品价格下降等原因所致。吉林化纤（000420.SZ）今年上半年碳纤维业务实现收入1.75亿元，同比增加346.30%，但毛利率同比下滑15.96个百分点至3.31%。</p> <p>产业链自然“一损俱损”。吉林炭谷（836077.BJ）生产的原丝作为碳丝的上游，同样受到来自下游降价压力的传导，据数据，23H1原丝价格下降约2000元/吨，截至2023年10月原丝价格年内下降约4000元/吨。</p> <p>当前碳纤维行业理论毛利润已为负，大丝束碳纤维和以T300为代表的低端小丝束碳纤维预计将面临亏损困境。“目前还不能说是行业底部，因为库存较高，企业还在持续扩产，需求端没有明显改善的情况。”前述业内人士表示。</p> <p><strong>低端产能重复建设是主因？</strong></p> <p>碳纤维价格持续走低，供应端一窝蜂“大干快上”是最主要的原因。“主要还是产量增速超过需求增速。”吉林化纤证券部工作人员表示。</p> <p>前述业内人士对财联社记者表示，国内碳纤维生产企业，多存在重复性建设的情况，并且集中在低性能产品。“由于国内起步较晚，很多企业技术方面比较薄弱，新建产能时，往往多家企业用一个技术包，甚至技术还不全，技术搬来搬去，产品品质可想而知。”</p> <p><span style="color: #a52a2a;"><strong>隆众资讯碳纤维分析师王琨表示，目前国内总产能11.72万吨，同比增长约39%，新增产能主要为低性能产品。未来3年拟在建产能20万吨。</strong></span></p> <p>在应用端，业内寄予厚望的风电叶片领域的应用，没有取得期待的份额。碳纤维主要应用在海风叶片的主梁。这两年海风装机容量甚至有所下降。此外，风电行业是成本敏感型行业，在降本压力下，多家风电主机厂都出现了盈利下滑甚至是亏损，替换碳纤维动力不足。</p> <p>财联社记者以投资者身份咨询，风电叶片龙头中材科技（002080.SZ）证券部工作人员表示，目前海风叶片大约应用10%碳纤维材料，这一比例距两年前没有大的变化。“虽然碳纤维降价了，但同时期玻纤价格也下降很多，跟玻纤比，碳纤维价格还是贵。”</p> <p><span style="color: #a52a2a;"><strong>王琨总结道，2023年碳纤维行业在风电叶片、体育休闲、航天航空等传统主流需求有所减量，例如风电方面，风电需求较弱，碳梁需求面今年相对减少，叶片需求来看多集中玻璃纤维方面，碳纤维价格虽有下行，但未能释放下游需求潜力；碳碳复材虽有增量，但竞价成交明显，其他产品需求占比相对较小，对碳纤维消耗能力有限。下游受海风、碳碳热场等领域需求不及预期等因素影响，前三季度碳纤维行业表观消费为4.97万吨，同比下滑3%。</strong></span></p> <p><strong>如何破局？</strong></p> <p>从行业来看，市场低性能碳纤维市场已经出现过剩。国内主要碳纤维企业需要集中精力突破高性能碳纤维产业化瓶颈，并不断开拓丰富碳纤维新的应用场景。</p> <p>为此，吉林炭谷方面加大了研发力度。从财报看，公司今年前三季度研发费用约0.75亿元，同比增加153.56%，主要系公司为持续优化产品品质和成本，巩固竞争优势。</p> <p>2023年8月公司公告对外设立合资公司吉林国兴宝冠助剂有限公司，油剂工艺的改进有利于减少碳丝在生产过程中出现的并丝、粘黏等表面缺陷，能够提升碳丝性能，并有利于生产成本的降低。此外，今年4月公司3万吨高性能碳纤维原丝项目开工，主要突破碳化后可达 T800/T1000级的高性能原丝的批量生产，并预计在2024年年中投产1期。</p> <p>中复神鹰同样在降本和产品升级上下功夫。公司西宁二期项目已于2023年5月实现投产，单线规模提升能显著降低单吨成本，且据公司公告，西宁生产线的综合成本还有10%-15%的下降空间。</p> <p>此外，公司表示已掌握T800级航空预浸料生产技术，上海航空预浸料项目已通过量产线PCD批准，并完成T800 级碳纤维预浸料第二产线建设，后续投产有望进一步推动大飞机用碳纤维及预浸料的国产化进程。</p> <p>中简科技在高性能碳纤维方面较为领先。公司ZT7系列碳纤维产品已经率先稳定批量在航空、航天领域应用多年，以ZT9H 为代表的新一代碳纤维也伴随不同应用领域进行了多个场景的验证，进展顺利。</p> <p>对于行业展望，光威复材相关负责人在互动平台坦言，国产碳纤维与美日强国相比，虽然还有不小差距，但在全球得到市场化普遍应用的产品型号上，国产碳纤维已经走过了从无到有、到能用，也在努力从能用到好用、再到好用又经济前进。“碳纤维复合材料应用拓展周期长，过程复杂，每一个具有一定商业价值的应用场景都是值得公司珍惜的机会，包括TP500在内的民品业务是当下重要且现实的业务目标之一。”</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：费斐 021-26093397 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4075-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4075-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i 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