NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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text-align: center;'> <td align='center' bgcolor='#000000'><span class='matrix'><font color='#ffffff'>Hazard</font></span></td>  <td align='center'><span class='matrix'><font color='#ffffff'>Wed (11/27)</font></span></td> <td align='center'><span class='matrix'><font color='#ffffff'>Thu (11/28)</font></span></td> <td align='center'><span class='matrix'><font color='#ffffff'>Fri (11/29)</font></span></td> <td align='center'><span class='matrix'><font color='#ffffff'>Sat (11/30)</font></span></td> <td align='center'><span class='matrix'><font color='#ffffff'>Sun (12/01)</font></span></td> <td align='center'><span class='matrix'><font color='#ffffff'>Mon (12/02)</font></span></td> <td align='center'><span class='matrix'><font color='#ffffff'>Tue (12/03)</font></span></td> <td align='center'><span class='matrix'><font color='#ffffff'>Wed (12/04)</font></span></td> <tr align='center' bgcolor='#eeeeee'> <td align='center' bgcolor='#0062ae'><span class='matrix'><a href="/products/outlook/" class='awhite' title="SPC Convective Outlooks">Severe</a></span></td> <td align='center' class='ac-mrgl'><a class='black' href='/products/outlook/day1otlk.html' title='Day 1 Convective Outlook Valid: 28/0100Z - 28/1200Z'>Marginal</a></td> <td align='center' class='ac-mrgl'><a class='black' href='/products/outlook/day2otlk.html' title='Day 2 Convective Outlook Valid: 28/1200Z - 29/1200Z'>Marginal</a></td> <td align='center' class='ac-nosevere'><a class='black' href='/products/outlook/day3otlk.html' title='Day 3 Convective Outlook Valid: 29/1200Z - 30/1200Z'>No Severe</a></td> <td align='center' class='ac48-noarea'><a class='black' href='/products/exper/day4-8/' title='Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Valid: 30/1200Z - 01/1200Z'>No Area</a></td> <td align='center' class='ac48-noarea'><a class='black' href='/products/exper/day4-8/' title='Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z'>No Area</a></td> <td align='center' class='ac48-noarea'><a class='black' href='/products/exper/day4-8/' title='Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Valid: 02/1200Z - 03/1200Z'>No Area</a></td> <td align='center' class='ac48-noarea'><a class='black' href='/products/exper/day4-8/' title='Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Valid: 03/1200Z - 04/1200Z'>No Area</a></td> <td align='center' class='ac48-noarea'><a class='black' href='/products/exper/day4-8/' title='Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Valid: 04/1200Z - 05/1200Z'>No Area</a></td> </tr> <tr align='center' bgcolor='#eeeeee'> <td align='center' bgcolor='#0062ae'><span class='matrix'><a href="/products/fire_wx/overview.html" class='awhite' title="SPC Fire Weather Outlooks">Fire</a></span></td> <td align='center' class='fw12-low'><a class='black' href='/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html' title='Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Valid: 271700Z - 281200Z'>No Critical</a></td> <td align='center' class='fw12-seetext'><a class='black' href='/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html' title='Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Valid: 281200Z - 291200Z'>Elevated</a></td> <td align='center' class='fw38-noarea'><a class='black' href='/products/exper/fire_wx/' title='Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Valid: 291200Z - 301200Z'>No Area</a></td> <td align='center' class='fw38-noarea'><a class='black' href='/products/exper/fire_wx/' title='Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Valid: 301200Z - 011200Z'>No Area</a></td> <td align='center' class='fw38-noarea'><a class='black' href='/products/exper/fire_wx/' title='Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Valid: 011200Z - 021200Z'>No Area</a></td> <td align='center' class='fw38-noarea'><a class='black' href='/products/exper/fire_wx/' title='Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Valid: 021200Z - 031200Z'>No Area</a></td> <td align='center' class='fw38-noarea'><a class='black' href='/products/exper/fire_wx/' title='Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Valid: 031200Z - 041200Z'>No Area</a></td> <td align='center' class='fw38-noarea'><a class='black' href='/products/exper/fire_wx/' title='Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Valid: 041200Z - 051200Z'>No Area</a></td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <br /> <div>  </div>  </div>   <div class="RightCol"> <div class="content_container_prods">  <script type="text/javascript"> document.write('<style type="text/css">.tabber{display:none;}<\/style>'); 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if (window.console && console.log) { // example return of current slide number console.log('animationStart on slide: ', current); }; }, animationComplete: function(current){ $j('.caption').animate({ bottom:0 },200); if (window.console && console.log) { // example return of current slide number console.log('animationComplete on slide: ', current); }; }, slidesLoaded: function() { $j('.caption').animate({ bottom:0 },200); } }); }); </script> <div id="spc1"> <div id="example"> <div id="slides"> <div class="slides_container"> <div class="slide"> <a href="/misc/climographics/any_severe/333 .png" title="Any Severe for 28 Nov " target="_blank" alt="Slide 1"><img src="/misc/climographics/any_severe/sm_333 .png"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Any Severe Probabilities: 28 Nov </p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/misc/climographics/all_torn/333 .png" target="_blank"><img src="/misc/climographics/all_torn/sm_333 .png"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Tornado Probabilities: 28 Nov </p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/misc/climographics/all_wind/333 .png" target="_blank"><img src="/misc/climographics/all_wind/sm_333 .png"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Damaging Wind Probabilities: 28 Nov </p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/misc/climographics/all_hail/333 .png" target="_blank"><img src="/misc/climographics/all_hail/sm_333 .png"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Severe Hail Probabilities: 28 Nov </p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/misc/climographics/sig_torn/333 .png" target="_blank"><img src="/misc/climographics/sig_torn/sm_333 .png"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Significant Tornado Probabilities: 28 Nov </p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/misc/climographics/sig_wind/333 .png" target="_blank"><img src="/misc/climographics/sig_wind/sm_333 .png"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Significant Wind Probabilities: 28 Nov </p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/misc/climographics/sig_hail/333 .png" target="_blank"><img src="/misc/climographics/sig_hail/sm_333 .png"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Significant Hail Probabilities: 28 Nov </p></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </td></tr> <tr><td align="left"><br>More severe weather climatology data <a href="/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=anySvr">here</a>.</td></tr> </table> </td> <td valign='top' width='33%' id='TopicContainer'> <table summary='layout' border='0'> <tr><td id='HighlightTitle'>2024 Tornado Watch Summary</td></tr> <tr><td align='center'><a href='/wcm/2024_torww_to_date.png'><img src='/wcm/thumbs/2024_torww_to_date_sm.png'></a></td></tr> <tr><td align='left'>Page last modified: November 27 2024 12:27 UTC</td></tr> </table></td> <script type="text/javascript" src="/new/js/jquery.slides.min.js"></script> <script> var $j = jQuery.noConflict(); $j(function(){ $j('#slides1').slides({ fadeSpeed: 1000, crossfade: true, effect: 'fade', preload: true, preloadImage: '/new/SVRclimo/loading.gif', play: 7000, pause: 2500, hoverPause: true, animationStart: function(current){ $j('.caption').animate({ bottom:-35 },100); if (window.console && console.log) { // example return of current slide number console.log('animationStart on slide: ', current); }; }, animationComplete: function(current){ $j('.caption').animate({ bottom:0 },200); if (window.console && console.log) { // example return of current slide number console.log('animationComplete on slide: ', current); }; }, slidesLoaded: function() { $j('.caption').animate({ bottom:0 },200); } }); }); </script> <td valign='top' width='33%' id='TopicContainer'> <table summary="layout" border="0" background="#eee"> <tr><td id='HighlightTitle'>Did You Know?</td></tr> <tr><td align="center"> <div id="spc1"> <div id="example"> <div id="slides1"> <div class="slides_container"> <div class="slide"> <a href="/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png" alt="Slide 1" title="Convective Outlook Category Descriptions" target="_blank"><img src="/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated-sm.png" height="174" width="280"/></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>What's My Risk?</p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/new/images/SPC-final-spanish.png" alt="Slide 2" title="Convective Outlook Category Descriptions in Spanish" target="_blank"><img src="/new/images/SPC-final-spanish-sm.png" height="174" width="280"/></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>La tormenta factor de riesgo.</p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="//www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3V3HZBs1Y4" alt="Slide 3" title="What's a Watch?" target="YouTube Clip"><img src="/new/images/WatchWarn.png" height="174" width="280"/></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>What's a Watch?</p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="//youtu.be/PHMlpv5vJ_Y" alt="Slide 4" title="How's a Forecast Made?" target="YouTube Clip"><img src="/new/images/ForecastMade.jpg" height="174" width="280"/></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>How's a Forecast Made?</p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/faq/tornado/#Safety" alt="Slide 5" title="Tornado Safety" target="_blank"><img src="/new/images/TornSafety.png" height="174" width="280"/></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Tornado Safety <a href="/faq/tornado/#Safety">Tips</a></p></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </td></tr> </table> </td> <tr> <td valign='top' width='33%' id='TopicContainer'> <table summary='layout' border='0'> <tr><td id='HighlightTitle'>Forecast Tools</td></tr> <tr><td align='center'> <script> var $j = jQuery.noConflict(); $j(function(){ $j('#slides2').slides({ fadeSpeed: 1000, crossfade: true, effect: 'fade', preload: true, preloadImage: '/new/SVRclimo/loading.gif', play: 7000, pause: 2500, hoverPause: true, animationStart: function(current){ $j('.caption').animate({ bottom:-35 },100); if (window.console && console.log) { // example return of current slide number console.log('animationStart on slide: ', current); }; }, animationComplete: function(current){ $j('.caption').animate({ bottom:0 },200); if (window.console && console.log) { // example return of current slide number console.log('animationComplete on slide: ', current); }; }, slidesLoaded: function() { $j('.caption').animate({ bottom:0 },200); } }); }); </script> <div id="spc1"> <div id="example"> <div id="slides2"> <div class="slides_container"> <div class="slide"> <a href="/exper/href/" title="HREF" target="_blank" alt="Slide 1"><img src="/new/images/href_sm.png" width="300" height="212"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>HREF</p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/exper/sref/" target="_blank"><img src="/new/images/SPC_SREF.png" width="300" height="212"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>SREF</p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/exper/mesoanalysis/new/" target="_blank"><img src="/new/images/SPC_mesoanalysis.png" width="300" height="212"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Mesoanalysis</p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/exper/soundings/" target="_blank"><img src="/new/images/SPC_sounding.png" width="300" height="212"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Observed Soundings</p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/exper/envbrowser/" target="_blank"><img src="/new/images/SPC_env_browser.png" width="300" height="212"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Tornado Environment Browser</p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/obswx/maps/" target="_blank"><img src="/new/images/SPC_UA.png" width="300" height="212"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>Upper-Air Maps</p></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </td></tr> </table></td> <td valign="top" width="33%" id="TopicContainer"> <table summary="layout" border="0"> <tr><td id='HighlightTitle'>2024 Severe Tstm Watch Summary</td></tr> <tr><td align='center'><a href='/wcm/2024_svrww_to_date.png'><img src='/wcm/thumbs/2024_svrww_to_date_sm.png'></a></td></tr> <tr><td align='left'>Page last modified: November 27 2024 12:27 UTC</td></tr> </table></td> <td valign="top" width="33%" id="TopicContainer"> <table summary="layout" border="0"> <tr><td id="HighlightTitle">Wildfire Climatology (1992-2015)</td></tr> <tr><td align="center"> <script src="/new/js/slides.min.jquery.js"></script> <script> var $j = jQuery.noConflict(); $j(function(){ $j('#slides3').slides({ fadeSpeed: 1000, crossfade: true, effect: 'fade', preload: true, preloadImage: '/new/FWclimo/loading.gif', play: 7000, pause: 2500, hoverPause: true, animationStart: function(current){ $j('.caption').animate({ bottom:-35 },100); if (window.console && console.log) { // example return of current slide number console.log('animationStart on slide: ', current); }; }, animationComplete: function(current){ $j('.caption').animate({ bottom:0 },200); if (window.console && console.log) { // example return of current slide number console.log('animationComplete on slide: ', current); }; }, slidesLoaded: function() { $j('.caption').animate({ bottom:0 },200); } }); }); </script> <div id="spc1"> <div id="example"> <div id="slides3"> <div class="slides_container"> <div class="slide"> <a href="/misc/fire_climo/Figs_Climo100ac/333 .png" title="100 acres for 28 Nov " target="_blank" alt="Slide 1"><img src="/misc/fire_climo/Figs_Climo100ac/sm_333 .png"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 28 Nov </p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/misc/fire_climo/Figs_Climo300ac/333 .png" target="_blank"><img src="/misc/fire_climo/Figs_Climo300ac/sm_333 .png"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 28 Nov </p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/misc/fire_climo/Figs_Climo1000ac/333 .png" target="_blank"><img src="/misc/fire_climo/Figs_Climo1000ac/sm_333 .png"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 28 Nov </p></div> </div> <div class="slide"> <a href="/misc/fire_climo/Figs_Climo5000ac/333 .png" target="_blank"><img src="/misc/fire_climo/Figs_Climo5000ac/sm_333 .png"></a> <div class="caption" style="bottom:0"><p>5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 28 Nov </p></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </td></tr> <tr><td align="left"><br>More wildfire climatology data <a href="/new/FWclimo/climo.php?parm=100ac">here</a>.</td></tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" valign="top" width="66%" id="TopicContainer"> <div id="HighlightTitle">Latest SPC Publications</div> <ul class="SPCResearchList"> <li> Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: <a href="/publications/edwards/29may12.pdf" target="_BLANK">Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow</a>. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (<a href="/publications/edwards/TLX-anim.mp4" target="_BLANK">supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements</a> [27170K MP4]), (<a href="/publications/edwards/TLX-anim-cb.mp4" target="_BLANK">supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements</a> [33950K MP4]) </li> <li> Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: <A href="/publications/squitieri/derecho2.pdf" target="_blank">A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts</a>. Published in <i>Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.</i>. [10595K PDF] </li> <li> Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: <A href="/publications/squitieri/derecho1.pdf" target="_blank">A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts</a>. Published in <i>Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.</i>. [6899K PDF] </li> <li> Thompson, R.L., 2023: <A href="/publications/thompson/rm-qlcs.pdf" target="_blank">A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21</a>. Published in <i>Wea. Forecasting</i>. [4539K PDF] </li> <li> Gallo, B.T., K.A. Wilson, J.J. Choate, K. Knopfmeier, P. Skinner, B. Roberts<sup>*</sup>, P.L. Heinselman, I.L. Jirak, and A.J. Clark, 2022: <A href="/publications/gallo/wofs-hwt.pdf" target="_blank">Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed</a>. Published in <i>Wea. Forecasting</i>. [4328K PDF] </li> <li> Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: <a href="/publications/squitieri/gridwrf2.pdf" target="_blank">On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part II: Impacts on QPFs</a>. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [5607K PDF] </li> <li> Squitieri, B.J., and W.A. Gallus Jr., 2022: <a href="/publications/squitieri/gridwrf1.pdf" target="_blank">On the Changes in Convection-Allowing WRF Forecasts of MCS Evolution due to Decreases in Model Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing. Part I: Changes in Cold Pool Evolution</a>. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [3655K PDF] </li> <li> Harrison, D.R., M.S. Elliott, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2022: <a href="/publications/harrison/hrefcalb.pdf" target="_blank">Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance</a>. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [2549K PDF] </li> <li> Find more research articles at the <a href="/publications/" target="_blank">SPC publication archive</a>. </li> </ul> </td> <td valign="top" width="33%" id="TopicContainer"> <div id="HighlightTitle">Latest SPC Case Archive</div> <table id='CaseArchive' width='290x' cellpadding='1' cellspacing='1'> <tr> <td align='left' style='background:#ebf3ff;'><a href='/exper/archive/event.php?date=20241120' target='_blank'>Nov 20, 2024</a></td> <td align='left' style='background:#ccc;'>Tornado: 0</td> <td align='left' style='background:#ccc;'>Wind: 52</td> <td align='left' style='background:#ccc;'>Hail: 0</td> </tr><tr> <td colspan='4' align='center'><a href='/exper/archive/event.php?date=20241120' target='_blank'><img src='/new/SPCCaseArchive/rep_thumb.gif' style ='margin: 2px;'></a></td></tr> </tr></table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </div>  </div> </div>  <div class="feature_container"> <div> <div id="HighlightContainer"> <table> <tr> <td colspan="2" valign="center" align="center" width="50%" id="TopicContainer"> <iframe src="//www.facebook.com/plugins/likebox.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FNWSSPC&width=500&height=395&show_faces=false&colorscheme=light&stream=true&show_border=true&header=true" scrolling="yes" frameborder="1" style="border:none; overflow:hidden; width:500px; height:395px;" allowTransparency="true"></iframe> </td> <td valign="center" align="center" width="50%" id="TopicContainer"> <a class="twitter-timeline" data-width="420" data-height="395" href="https://twitter.com/NWSSPC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">Tweets by NWSSPC</a> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </td> </tr> </table> </div>  </div> </div>  <div class="footer_container"> <div id="footer"> <table cellspacing="6" cellpadding="0" width="100%" border="0"> <tr valign="top"> <td class="gray"> <a href="//www.usa.gov" target="_blank"><img src="/misc/usagov_logo_color_110.png" alt="usa.gov" width="110" height="110" /></a> </td> <td class="gray"> <a href="//www.noaa.gov/" target="_blank"><span class="gray">NOAA</span></a> / <a href="//www.weather.gov/" target="_blank"><span class="gray">National Weather Service</span></a><br /> <a href="//www.ncep.noaa.gov/" target="_blank"><span class="gray">National Centers for Environmental Prediction</span></a><br /> <a href="/"><span class="gray">Storm Prediction Center</span></a><br /> 120 David L. 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