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window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_Y_L_1_1', false); }); } </script> </div> </span> <main id="main" class="site-main w-full max-w-science mx-auto text-light-black pl-4 pr-4 pt-5 sm:pt-9 !mt-0 mb-5 sm:mb-9"> <div class="grid lg:grid-cols-container gap-7"> <section class="col-span-container"> <article id="post-49516" class="bg-white post-49516 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-explainer"> <h1 class="text-h2 sm:text-h1 font-source-sans font-semibold text-legibility block mb-4">What Is The Dunning-Kruger Effect? You Might Be Using It Wrong</h1> <div class="flex flex-wrap items-center mb-4"> <a class="article-cat text-body-sm sm:text-body-md uppercase font-source-sans font-semibold text-legibility inline-block mr-3" href="https://www.sciencealert.com/explainer" style="color: #d36f6f">Explainer</a><div class="author-details "><span class="inline-block mr-1 text-gray-500 text-body-sm sm:text-body-md">By </span><span class=" text-body-sm sm:text-body-md uppercase inline">ScienceAlert Staff</span></div> </div> <div class="w-full h-auto featured-image"> <img width="600" height="243" src="https://www.sciencealert.com/images/2022-04/processed/YoungWomanWithFaceOnLaptop_600.jpg" class="w-full h-auto lg:object-cover wp-post-image" alt="What is the Dunning-Kruger effect? You might be using it wrong" loading="eager" decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" sizes="(-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) 50vw, (min-resolution: 192dpi) 50vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) 33.33vw, (min-resolution: 288dpi) 33.33vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) 33.33vw" srcset="https://www.sciencealert.com/images/2022-04/processed/YoungWomanWithFaceOnLaptop_600.jpg 600w, https://www.sciencealert.com/images/2022-04/processed/YoungWomanWithFaceOnLaptop_1024.jpg 1024w" /> <span class="img-caption w-full border-b border-gray-200 text-left font-normal text-gray-500 block py-0.5"> <span class="ccfic-source">(Zave Smith/Getty Images)</span> </span> </div> <div class="entry-content pt-4"> <div class="post-content"> <p>The Dunning-Kruger effect is a purported bias in human thinking that leads us to misjudge our abilities in contrast to our actual skill level.</p><p>It is named after American social psychologists <a href="https://lsa.umich.edu/psych/people/faculty/ddunning.html">David Dunning</a> and <a href="https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/justin-kruger">Justin Kruger</a>, who <a href="https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2F0022-3514.77.6.1121">since the late 1990s</a> have conducted <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S074959780700060X?via%3Dihub">a series of investigations</a> into our ability to self-assess our own performance at various tasks such as logical reasoning, grammar, emotional intelligence, and humor.</p><div class="ad-slot--container ad-slot--container-content ad-slot--container-content-1 Purch_Y_C_0_1-container"> <div class="ad-slot priad-1 ad-slot--content-1 Purch_Y_C_0_1" id="Purch_Y_C_0_1"></div> <script> if ('undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag && 'undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_Y_C_0_1', false); }); } </script> </div> <h2><strong>What does the Dunning-Kruger effect mean?</strong></h2><p>According to their results, we all overestimate our ability to succeed at particular tasks when our actual skill in that task is relatively low, and in some cases underestimate our chance of success when our skill is high.</p><div class="ad-slot--container ad-slot--container-content ad-slot--container-content-2 Purch_Y_C_0_2-container"> <div class="ad-slot ad-slot--content ad-slot--content-2 Purch_Y_C_0_2" id="Purch_Y_C_0_2"></div> <script> if ('undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag && 'undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_Y_C_0_2', false); }); } </script> </div> <p>This tendency to overestimate, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S074959780700060X?via%3Dihub">they've found</a>, stems not from a mistaken assessment of others' abilities, but due to a lack of insight into our own. By improving our ability to judge the accuracy of information, we can evaluate our own knowledge better and estimate our own abilities more reliably.</p><div class="ad-slot--container ad-slot--container-content ad-slot--container-content-3 Purch_Y_C_0_3-container"> <div class="ad-slot ad-slot--content ad-slot--content-3 Purch_Y_C_0_3" id="Purch_Y_C_0_3"></div> <script> if ('undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag && 'undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_Y_C_0_3', false); }); } </script> </div> <h2>How is the Dunning-Kruger effect misunderstood?</h2><p>Since the dawn of Western philosophy, one of the marks of wisdom has been humility in knowledge. <a href="https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/03/04/self-doubt/">In the words</a> of 20th century British philosopher Bertrand Russell, "the fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt."</p><div class="ad-slot--container ad-slot--container-content ad-slot--container-content-4 Purch_Y_C_0_4-container"> <div class="ad-slot ad-slot--content ad-slot--content-4 Purch_Y_C_0_4" id="Purch_Y_C_0_4"></div> <script> if ('undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag && 'undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_Y_C_0_4', false); }); } </script> </div> <p>So it comes as no surprise that the Dunning-Kruger effect would be <a href="https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/dunning-kruger-effect" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">so readily adopted</a> in reflection of this age-old truism. The results are often interpreted as generalizations of intelligence along a dividing line – between the <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/10073889-the-dunning-kruger-effect-dumb-people-like-trump-think-they-re-super">smart and stupid</a>, so to speak.</p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I don’t call it facebook anymore I call it the Dunning–Kruger National Park</p>— frost (@2frost2furious) <a href="https://twitter.com/2frost2furious/status/1467066200475811842?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 4, 2021</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p><script src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" async="" type="text/javascript" charset="utf-8"></script> </p><p>It's often misinterpreted as "<a href="https://online.edhec.edu/en/blog/dunning-kruger-effect/">overconfidence in oneself</a>", or <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/head-in-the-cloud/201701/the-dunning-kruger-president">as a graph</a> portraying an expert-level confidence among the incompetent.</p><div class="ad-slot--container ad-slot--container-content ad-slot--container-content-5 Purch_Y_C_0_5-container"> <div class="ad-slot ad-slot--content ad-slot--content-5 Purch_Y_C_0_5" id="Purch_Y_C_0_5"></div> <script> if ('undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag && 'undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_Y_C_0_5', false); }); } </script> </div> <p>But Dunning and Kruger's investigations apply less to individuals and more to discrete fields of knowledge and skill. We're all likely to overestimate our ability to recall or identify factual information, or exercise a skill, as our actual performance in that area drops below the top quartile.</p><p><img decoding="async" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/P6kjwi2KqlXWjh8EYlevj9mG3Bka-xc0Hytcea22D4_uXSWPhfzXHR4P9q9EvcMUmEXCspbMPJskpt2LSFBOY9-yhaBf6VQM_hi9oDkiR0qbFnZEadf8q62W8ZeFTwPFXcN-pUpM" alt="" width="434" height="395" loading="lazy"></p><p>That isn't about 'incompetent' folks, but about most people in any given expertise. You can have a high IQ, know all there is to know about neurosurgery, have zero handicap on your golf game, and cook a mean lasagna, and still be subject to the Dunning-Kruger effect when discussing domestic politics.</p><div class="ad-slot--container ad-slot--container-content ad-slot--container-content-6 Purch_Y_C_0_6-container"> <div class="ad-slot ad-slot--content ad-slot--content-6 Purch_Y_C_0_6" id="Purch_Y_C_0_6"></div> <script> if ('undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag && 'undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_Y_C_0_6', false); }); } </script> </div> <h2>Is it possible the Dunning-Kruger effect isn't even real?</h2><p><a href="https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/numeracy/vol10/iss1/art4/">Recent</a> <a href="https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/numeracy/vol9/iss1/art4/">investigations</a> into the method used by Dunning and Kruger to analyze their data have raised cause to be suspicious, <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/critical-thinking/dunning-kruger-effect-probably-not-real?fbclid=IwAR0Vf8lmdSVN3NfGy5Dvkpt4B88NpGqXiLSm2Fk_BYExtkxGBDG3ob9DYAw">if not doubtful</a> of the strength of the Dunning-Kruger effect.</p><div class="ad-slot--container ad-slot--container-content ad-slot--container-content-7 Purch_Y_C_0_7-container"> <div class="ad-slot ad-slot--content ad-slot--content-7 Purch_Y_C_0_7" id="Purch_Y_C_0_7"></div> <script> if ('undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag && 'undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_Y_C_0_7', false); }); } </script> </div> <p>By producing pools of data in a completely randomized fashion and then separating the test and prediction figures into the quartiles (the bottom performers, the top performers and two blocks in the middle) used by Dunning and Kruger, several researchers have demonstrated it's possible to get the same results.</p><div class="ad-slot--container ad-slot--container-content ad-slot--container-content-8 Purch_Y_C_0_8-container"> <div class="ad-slot ad-slot--content ad-slot--content-8 Purch_Y_C_0_8" id="Purch_Y_C_0_8"></div> <script> if ('undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag && 'undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_Y_C_0_8', false); }); } </script> </div> <p>This and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289620300271#bb0185">other criticisms</a> imply the effect <a href="https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/10/12/can-the-dunning-kruger-effect-be-explained-as-a-misunderstanding-of-regression-to-the-mean/">might be the result</a> of a statistical artifact called a '<a href="https://fs.blog/regression-to-the-mean/">regression toward the mean</a>' – a natural consequence of randomness and repeated sampling. </p><div class="ad-slot--container ad-slot--container-content ad-slot--container-content-9 Purch_Y_C_0_9-container"> <div class="ad-slot ad-slot--content ad-slot--content-9 Purch_Y_C_0_9" id="Purch_Y_C_0_9"></div> <script> if ('undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag && 'undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_Y_C_0_9', false); }); } </script> </div> <p>This doesn't rule out such an effect in specific areas. It does leave plenty of room for debate over the nature of self-awareness in our own knowledge.</p><div class="ad-slot--container ad-slot--container-content ad-slot--container-content-10 Purch_Y_C_0_10-container"> <div class="ad-slot ad-slot--content ad-slot--content-10 Purch_Y_C_0_10" id="Purch_Y_C_0_10"></div> <script> if ('undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag && 'undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_Y_C_0_10', false); }); } </script> </div> <p>Even if the Dunning-Kruger effect was found to be a complete illusion, that age-old advice of reserving doubt would still be worth keeping in mind.</p><p><em>All Explainers are determined by fact checkers to be correct and relevant at the time of publishing. Text and images may be altered, removed, or added to as an editorial decision to keep information current.</em></p> </div> </div> </article> <div id="taboola-below-article-thumbnails-2nd"></div> <script type="text/javascript"> window._taboola = window._taboola || []; _taboola.push({ mode: 'thumbnails-b', container: 'taboola-below-article-thumbnails-2nd', placement: 'Below Article Thumbnails 2nd', target_type: 'mix' }); </script>  </section> <aside class="hidden lg:block col-span-sidebar sidebar-gap" data-sticky-container> <div class="ad-slot--container ad-slot--container-mrec ad-slot--container-mrec-1 Purch_D_R_0_1-container"> <div class="ad-slot ad-slot--mrec ad-slot--mrec-1 Purch_D_R_0_1" id='Purch_D_R_0_1'></div> <script> if ('undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag && 'undefined' !== typeof window.tmntag.cmd) { tmntag.cmd.push(function () { tmntag.adTag('Purch_D_R_0_1', false); }); } </script> </div>  <div class="block pt-2 border-t-3 border-sciencealert-yellow"> <span class="text-h2 font-source-sans font-semibold text-legibility block mb-7">Trending News</span> <div> <div class="trending-news__inner bg-white border-b border-gray-200 pb-3"> <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/worlds-largest-gold-deposit-found-worth-over-us80-billion" class="text-h5 font-source-sans font-semibold text-legibility inline-block"> World's Largest Gold Deposit Found, Worth Over US$80 Billion </a> <span class="flex items-center mt-2"> <a class="article-cat text-body-sm sm:text-body-md uppercase font-source-sans font-semibold text-legibility inline-block mr-3" href="https://www.sciencealert.com/nature" style="color: #6f7d16">Nature</a><span class="article-date text-body-xs sm:text-body-sm text-gray-500 block">5 days ago</span> </span> </div> <div class="trending-news__inner bg-white border-b border-gray-200 pb-3"> <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/man-keeps-a-rock-for-years-hoping-its-gold-it-turns-out-to-be-far-more-valuable" class="text-h5 font-source-sans font-semibold text-legibility inline-block"> Man Keeps a Rock For Years Hoping It's Gold. 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