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pencraft pc-reset"/></picture></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-12 pc-padding-12 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-gap-2 pc-minWidth-0 flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-paddingBottom-4 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset"><div draggable="false" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-position-relative pc-reset"><div style="width:18px;height:18px;" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-reset bg-white-ZBV5av pc-borderRadius-xs overflow-hidden-WdpwT6 sizing-border-box-DggLA4"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d267b36-4ea1-40c2-b41c-416073d16c63_256x256.png"/><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d267b36-4ea1-40c2-b41c-416073d16c63_256x256.png" sizes="100vw" alt="AI Snake Oil" width="36" height="36" style="width:18px;height:18px;" draggable="false" class="img-OACg1c object-fit-cover-u4ReeV pencraft pc-reset"/></picture></div></div><div class="pencraft flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset ellipsis-Jb8om8 color-vibrance-secondary-k5eqjt line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-13-hZTUKr weight-regular-mUq6Gb nowrap-QngyoB reset-IxiVJZ">AI Snake Oil</div></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset color-vibrance-primary-KHCdqV line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-15-Psle70 weight-medium-fw81nC clamp-y7pNm8 clamp-2-kM02pu reset-IxiVJZ">Licensing is neither feasible nor effective for addressing AI risks</div></div></div></div></a><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-gap-16 pc-reset"><div 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weight-semibold-uqA4FV reset-IxiVJZ">More</div></a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="post-header"><h1 class="post-title unpublished">Licensing is neither feasible nor effective for addressing AI risks</h1><h3 class="subtitle">Non-proliferation only benefits incumbents </h3><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-paddingBottom-16 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-paddingTop-16 pc-paddingBottom-16 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-12 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset byline-wrapper"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-row pc-gap-8 pc-alignItems-center pc-justifyContent-flex-start pc-reset"><div style="--scale:36px;--offset:9px;--border-width:4.5px;" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-row pc-alignItems-center pc-justifyContent-flex-start pc-reset ltr-qDBmby"><a href="https://substack.com/@sayash" class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset"><div style="--scale:36px;" tabindex="0" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-width-36 pc-height-36 pc-justifyContent-center pc-alignItems-center pc-position-relative flexAuto-Bzdrdy pc-reset bg-secondary-UUD3_J animate-XFJxE4 outline-detail-vcQLyr pc-borderRadius-full overflow-hidden-WdpwT6 sizing-border-box-DggLA4 pressable-sm-YIJFKJ showFocus-sk_vEm container-TAtrWj interactive-UkK0V6 avatar-u8q6xB"><div style="--scale:36px;" title="Sayash Kapoor" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-width-36 pc-height-36 pc-justifyContent-center pc-alignItems-center pc-position-relative flexAuto-Bzdrdy pc-reset bg-secondary-UUD3_J outline-detail-vcQLyr pc-borderRadius-full overflow-hidden-WdpwT6 sizing-border-box-DggLA4 container-TAtrWj"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F30f87ce8-8dbc-468f-8f8b-9fbf430e323c_976x974.png 36w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_72,h_72,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F30f87ce8-8dbc-468f-8f8b-9fbf430e323c_976x974.png 72w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_108,h_108,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F30f87ce8-8dbc-468f-8f8b-9fbf430e323c_976x974.png 108w" sizes="36px"/><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F30f87ce8-8dbc-468f-8f8b-9fbf430e323c_976x974.png" sizes="36px" alt srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F30f87ce8-8dbc-468f-8f8b-9fbf430e323c_976x974.png 36w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_72,h_72,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F30f87ce8-8dbc-468f-8f8b-9fbf430e323c_976x974.png 72w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_108,h_108,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F30f87ce8-8dbc-468f-8f8b-9fbf430e323c_976x974.png 108w" width="36" height="36" draggable="false" class="img-OACg1c pencraft pc-reset"/></picture></div></div></a><a href="https://substack.com/@arvindnarayanan" class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset"><div style="--scale:36px;" tabindex="0" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-width-36 pc-height-36 pc-justifyContent-center pc-alignItems-center pc-position-relative flexAuto-Bzdrdy pc-reset bg-secondary-UUD3_J animate-XFJxE4 outline-detail-vcQLyr pc-borderRadius-full overflow-hidden-WdpwT6 sizing-border-box-DggLA4 pressable-sm-YIJFKJ showFocus-sk_vEm container-TAtrWj interactive-UkK0V6 avatar-u8q6xB overlap-q75iOo last-JfNEJ_"><div style="--scale:36px;" title="Arvind Narayanan" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-width-36 pc-height-36 pc-justifyContent-center pc-alignItems-center pc-position-relative flexAuto-Bzdrdy pc-reset bg-secondary-UUD3_J outline-detail-vcQLyr pc-borderRadius-full overflow-hidden-WdpwT6 sizing-border-box-DggLA4 container-TAtrWj"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F149ffaff-ad45-4b76-9667-bbd39d3a3d23_1795x1795.jpeg 36w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_72,h_72,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F149ffaff-ad45-4b76-9667-bbd39d3a3d23_1795x1795.jpeg 72w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_108,h_108,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F149ffaff-ad45-4b76-9667-bbd39d3a3d23_1795x1795.jpeg 108w" sizes="36px"/><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F149ffaff-ad45-4b76-9667-bbd39d3a3d23_1795x1795.jpeg" sizes="36px" alt srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F149ffaff-ad45-4b76-9667-bbd39d3a3d23_1795x1795.jpeg 36w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_72,h_72,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F149ffaff-ad45-4b76-9667-bbd39d3a3d23_1795x1795.jpeg 72w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_108,h_108,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F149ffaff-ad45-4b76-9667-bbd39d3a3d23_1795x1795.jpeg 108w" width="36" height="36" draggable="false" class="img-OACg1c pencraft pc-reset"/></picture></div></div></a></div></div></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset color-pub-primary-text-NyXPlw line-height-20-t4M0El font-meta-MWBumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw81nC transform-uppercase-yKDgcq reset-IxiVJZ meta-EgzBVA"><div class="profile-hover-card-target profileHoverCardTarget-PBxvGm"><a href="https://substack.com/@sayash" class="pencraft pc-reset decoration-hover-underline-ClDVRM reset-IxiVJZ">Sayash Kapoor</a></div> and <div class="profile-hover-card-target profileHoverCardTarget-PBxvGm"><a href="https://substack.com/@arvindnarayanan" class="pencraft pc-reset decoration-hover-underline-ClDVRM reset-IxiVJZ">Arvind Narayanan</a></div></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-4 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset color-pub-secondary-text-hGQ02T line-height-20-t4M0El font-meta-MWBumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw81nC transform-uppercase-yKDgcq reset-IxiVJZ meta-EgzBVA">Jun 10, 2023</div></div></div></div></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-16 pc-paddingTop-16 pc-paddingBottom-16 pc-justifyContent-space-between 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https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4239d7c6-4f55-4254-91f2-20b9b2bec77e_1118x639.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4239d7c6-4f55-4254-91f2-20b9b2bec77e_1118x639.jpeg 1456w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1560,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4239d7c6-4f55-4254-91f2-20b9b2bec77e_1118x639.jpeg 1560w" width="520" draggable="false" class="img-OACg1c postImage-L4FlO9 vibrantPostImage-TTXyOq pencraft pc-reset"/></picture></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-12 pc-padding-12 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-gap-2 pc-minWidth-0 flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-paddingBottom-4 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset"><div draggable="false" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-position-relative pc-reset"><div style="width:18px;height:18px;" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-reset bg-white-ZBV5av pc-borderRadius-xs overflow-hidden-WdpwT6 sizing-border-box-DggLA4"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d267b36-4ea1-40c2-b41c-416073d16c63_256x256.png"/><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d267b36-4ea1-40c2-b41c-416073d16c63_256x256.png" sizes="100vw" alt="AI Snake Oil" width="36" height="36" style="width:18px;height:18px;" draggable="false" class="img-OACg1c object-fit-cover-u4ReeV pencraft pc-reset"/></picture></div></div><div class="pencraft flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset ellipsis-Jb8om8 color-vibrance-secondary-k5eqjt line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-13-hZTUKr weight-regular-mUq6Gb nowrap-QngyoB reset-IxiVJZ">AI Snake Oil</div></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset color-vibrance-primary-KHCdqV line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-15-Psle70 weight-medium-fw81nC clamp-y7pNm8 clamp-2-kM02pu reset-IxiVJZ">Licensing is neither feasible nor effective for addressing AI risks</div></div></div></div></a><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-gap-16 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-justifyContent-space-between pc-reset"><a class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-gap-8 pc-width-64 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset cursor-pointer-LYORKw button-zkMi7O"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-width-64 pc-height-64 pc-justifyContent-center pc-alignItems-center pc-reset 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0 24 24" fill="#000000" stroke-width="2" stroke="#000" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon"><g><title></title><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-message-circle"><path d="M7.9 20A9 9 0 1 0 4 16.1L2 22Z"></path></svg></g></svg><div class="label">10</div></a><a role="button" aria-label="View repost options" class="post-ufi-button style-button no-label with-border"><svg role="img" style="height:20px;width:20px;" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="#000" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon"><g><title></title><path d="M21 3V8M21 8H16M21 8L18 5.29962C16.7056 4.14183 15.1038 3.38328 13.3879 3.11547C11.6719 2.84766 9.9152 3.08203 8.32951 3.79031C6.74382 4.49858 5.39691 5.65051 4.45125 7.10715C3.5056 8.5638 3.00158 10.2629 3 11.9996M3 21V16M3 16H8M3 16L6 18.7C7.29445 19.8578 8.89623 20.6163 10.6121 20.8841C12.3281 21.152 14.0848 20.9176 15.6705 20.2093C17.2562 19.501 18.6031 18.3491 19.5487 16.8925C20.4944 15.4358 20.9984 13.7367 21 12" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"></path></g></svg></a></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><a role="button" href="javascript:void(0)" aria-label="View share options" class="post-ufi-button style-button no-icon has-label with-border"><div class="label">Share</div></a></div></div></div></div><div class="visibility-check"></div><div><div class="available-content"><div dir="auto" class="body markup"><p><span>Many people and organizations have argued that one way to make AI safer is by non-proliferation, </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/iaea-for-ai-that-model-has-already-failed-chaptgpt-technology-nuclear-proliferation-4339543b" rel>similar to nuclear weapons or human cloning</a><span>. </span></p><p>This would mean that only certain licensed companies and organizations can build state-of-the-art AI models. The argument is that this would allow the government to contain the spread of harmful AI models, have oversight into what AI tools are built and how they are deployed, and thus be able to guide the development of AI in a socially beneficial way. </p><p><span>Similar arguments underlie other attempts to forestall AI development, for instance, in the </span><a href="https://aisnakeoil.substack.com/p/a-misleading-open-letter-about-sci" rel>Future of Life Institute's letter</a><span> arguing for a six-month pause on training models bigger than GPT-4.</span></p><h4 class="header-anchor-post"><strong>Licensing is infeasible to enforce</strong><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent"><div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA"><div id="§licensing-is-infeasible-to-enforce" class="pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top"></div><button tabindex="0" type="button" data-href="https://www.aisnakeoil.com/i/127227859/licensing-is-infeasible-to-enforce" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft iconButton2-DvFP7w iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonNew-KfJF0Q size_sm-G3LciD priority_secondary-S63h9o"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18" height="18" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-link"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></button></div></div></h4><p>If regulators commit to non-proliferation, how would they enforce it? It is not enough to require that developers obtain licenses, because malicious actors can simply ignore the licensing requirements and proceed with training AI models. </p><p><span>One approach that’s been suggested is to </span><a href="https://openai.com/blog/governance-of-superintelligence" rel>surveil data centers</a><span> where models are trained and hosted. This proposal relies on the fact that AI requires lots of computing resources. In theory, data centers would need to report when a customer uses above a certain level of computing resources, which could prompt an investigation. </span></p><p><span>But as algorithmic and hardware improvements reduce costs for training models at a given capability level, this approach would require increasingly draconian surveillance measures and an unprecedented level of international cooperation to be effective. Though training state-of-the-art models like GPT-4 is </span><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/openai-ceo-sam-altman-the-age-of-giant-ai-models-is-already-over/" rel>expensive</a><span>, the cost is </span><a href="https://www.mosaicml.com/blog/mpt-7b" rel>rapidly dropping</a><span>, both because of the decrease in hardware costs and due to improvements in the algorithms used to train AI models.</span></p><p><span>To see the long-term trends, we can look at computer vision. Between 2012 and 2019, training an image recognition classifier with the same performance became </span><a href="https://openai.com/research/ai-and-efficiency" rel>44 times cheaper</a><span>. </span></p><p><span>As of this writing, one of the most capable open-source language models, </span><a href="https://falconllm.tii.ae/" rel>Falcon</a><span>, required fewer than 400 GPUs and only two months to train. We estimate that such a model can be trained for a cost of less than USD 1 million.</span><span class="footnote-hovercard-target"><a class="footnote-anchor" data-component-name="FootnoteAnchorToDOM" id="footnote-anchor-1-127227859" href="https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/licensing-is-neither-feasible-nor#footnote-1-127227859" target="_self" rel>1</a></span></p><p><span>Further, the technical know-how required to build large language models is already widespread, and there are several open-source LLMs developed by organizations that share their </span><a href="https://github.com/mosaicml/llm-foundry" rel>entire code and training methodology</a><span>. Because of these reasons, non-proliferation is infeasible from an enforcement perspective.</span></p><p>OpenAI and others have proposed that licenses would be required only for the most powerful models, above a certain training compute threshold. Perhaps that is more feasible — but again, unless all capable actors voluntarily comply, enforcement would be possible only by giving governments extraordinary powers. </p><p>And let's be clear about what it could accomplish: It would, at most, buy a few years of time. For any given capability threshold, training costs are likely to keep dropping due to both hardware and algorithmic improvements. Once the costs are low enough, the set of actors who can fund the development of such models will be too high to police.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p>You’re reading AI Snake Oil, a blog about our upcoming book. Subscribe to get new posts.</p></div><div data-component-name="SubscribeWidget" class="subscribe-widget"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-justifyContent-center pc-reset"><div class="container-IpPqBD"><form action="/api/v1/free?nojs=true" method="post" novalidate class="form form-M5sC90"><input type="hidden" name="first_url" value/><input type="hidden" name="first_referrer" value/><input type="hidden" name="current_url"/><input type="hidden" name="current_referrer"/><input type="hidden" name="first_session_url" value/><input type="hidden" name="first_session_referrer" value/><input type="hidden" name="referral_code"/><input type="hidden" name="source" value="subscribe-widget-preamble"/><input type="hidden" name="referring_pub_id"/><input type="hidden" name="additional_referring_pub_ids"/><div class="sideBySideWrap-vGXrwP"><div class="emailInputWrapper-QlA86j"><input type="email" name="email" placeholder="Type your email..." class="pencraft emailInput-OkIMeB"/></div><button tabindex="0" type="submit" class="button rightButton primary subscribe-btn button-VFSdkv"><span class="button-text ">Subscribe</span></button></div><div id="error-container"></div></form></div></div></div></div></div><h4 class="header-anchor-post"><strong>Licensing will increase concentration and may worsen AI risks</strong><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent"><div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA"><div id="§licensing-will-increase-concentration-and-may-worsen-ai-risks" class="pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top"></div><button tabindex="0" type="button" data-href="https://www.aisnakeoil.com/i/127227859/licensing-will-increase-concentration-and-may-worsen-ai-risks" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft iconButton2-DvFP7w iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonNew-KfJF0Q size_sm-G3LciD priority_secondary-S63h9o"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18" height="18" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-link"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></button></div></div></h4><p><span>Despite the proliferation of AI models themselves, a small number of big tech companies stand to </span><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4135581" rel>profit greatly</a><span> from the generative AI wave: whether by integrating it into their apps (e.g., Google, Microsoft, and Apple), by selling API access (e.g., OpenAI and Anthropic), or by selling hardware (NVIDIA).</span></p><p>Such concentration harms competition. Committing to non-proliferation would further increase this risk, because only a handful of companies would be able to develop state-of-the-art AI. </p><p>Further, decades of experience in the field of information security suggest that it’s better to deal with with security risks openly instead of "security through obscurity." In particular, non-proliferation and the resulting concentration of power would impact five major AI risks:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Monoculture may worsen security risks.</strong><span> When thousands of apps are all powered by the same model (GPT-3.5 is already in this position today), security vulnerabilities in this model can be exploited across all of these different applications.</span></p></li><li><p><strong>Monoculture may lead to outcome homogenization.</strong><span> The use of the same AI model across different applications increases </span><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.13972" rel>homogenization</a><span>, including in consequential settings such as resume screening. If a candidate applies to multiple jobs, instead of being evaluated independently by the different companies, they could be rejected from all of them if all companies use the same AI tool for hiring. </span></p></li><li><p><strong>Defining the boundaries of acceptable speech.</strong><span> In some ways, generative AI apps are similar to social media platforms where people generate and consume content. If most people use models created by a small group of providers, these developers get outsized power in defining the Overton windows of acceptable speech, by governing what is and isn't allowed in conversations. </span></p></li><li><p><strong>Influencing attitudes and opinions.</strong><span> If people use chatbots as conversation partners, the “opinions” expressed by them could influence people’s views on a massive scale. There is evidence for this from a </span><a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3544548.3581196" rel>recent study</a><span>.</span></p></li><li><p><strong>Regulatory capture.</strong><span> The ongoing lobbying for a licensing regime can be seen as </span><a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/19/23728174/ai-regulation-senate-hearings-regulatory-capture-laws" rel>regulatory capture</a><span>. If it succeeds, it would give AI companies even more power in policy debates. Instead of engaging with the arguments, they could </span><a href="https://fortune.com/2023/05/15/former-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-tells-government-to-leave-regulation-of-ai-to-big-tech-openai-chatgpt-bardai-midjourney/" rel>dismiss critics</a><span> as uninformed outsiders lacking expertise on AI capabilities and risks.</span></p></li></ol><p>One way to avoid concentration is the development and evaluation of state-of-the-art models by a diverse group of academics, companies, and NGOs. We believe this would be a better way to uncover and address AI risks. Of course, open-source AI presents its own risks and requires guardrails. What might those guardrails look like? We plan to share a few ideas soon.</p><div class="footnote" data-component-name="FootnoteToDOM"><a id="footnote-1-127227859" href="https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/licensing-is-neither-feasible-nor#footnote-anchor-1-127227859" class="footnote-number" contenteditable="false" target="_self" rel>1</a><div class="footnote-content"><p><span>The model was trained on </span><a href="https://pub.towardsai.net/falcon-40b-a-fully-opensourced-foundation-llm-945dd9824157" rel>384 Nvidia A100 GPUs for 60 days</a><span>. The hourly rate of using one such GPU on AWS varies from </span><a href="https://aws.amazon.com/ec2/instance-types/p4/" rel>USD 1.44 to USD 4.10</a><span>. Bulk costs are generally lower than hourly costs. </span></p></div></div></div></div><div class="visibility-check"></div><div class="post-footer"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-16 pc-paddingTop-16 pc-paddingBottom-16 pc-justifyContent-space-between pc-alignItems-center flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset border-top-detail-themed-k9TZAY border-bottom-detail-themed-Ua9186 post-ufi"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="like-button-container post-ufi-button style-button"><a role="button" aria-label="Like (42)" aria-pressed="false" class="post-ufi-button style-button has-label with-border"><svg role="img" style="height:20px;width:20px;" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="#000000" stroke-width="2" stroke="#000" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon"><g><title></title><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide 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https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1040,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4239d7c6-4f55-4254-91f2-20b9b2bec77e_1118x639.jpeg 1040w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4239d7c6-4f55-4254-91f2-20b9b2bec77e_1118x639.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4239d7c6-4f55-4254-91f2-20b9b2bec77e_1118x639.jpeg 1456w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1560,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4239d7c6-4f55-4254-91f2-20b9b2bec77e_1118x639.jpeg 1560w" width="520" draggable="false" class="img-OACg1c postImage-L4FlO9 vibrantPostImage-TTXyOq pencraft pc-reset"/></picture></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-12 pc-padding-12 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-gap-2 pc-minWidth-0 flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-paddingBottom-4 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset"><div draggable="false" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-position-relative pc-reset"><div style="width:18px;height:18px;" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-reset bg-white-ZBV5av pc-borderRadius-xs overflow-hidden-WdpwT6 sizing-border-box-DggLA4"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d267b36-4ea1-40c2-b41c-416073d16c63_256x256.png"/><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_36,h_36,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d267b36-4ea1-40c2-b41c-416073d16c63_256x256.png" sizes="100vw" alt="AI Snake Oil" width="36" height="36" style="width:18px;height:18px;" draggable="false" class="img-OACg1c object-fit-cover-u4ReeV pencraft pc-reset"/></picture></div></div><div class="pencraft flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset ellipsis-Jb8om8 color-vibrance-secondary-k5eqjt line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-13-hZTUKr weight-regular-mUq6Gb nowrap-QngyoB reset-IxiVJZ">AI Snake Oil</div></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset color-vibrance-primary-KHCdqV line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-15-Psle70 weight-medium-fw81nC clamp-y7pNm8 clamp-2-kM02pu reset-IxiVJZ">Licensing is neither feasible nor effective for addressing AI risks</div></div></div></div></a><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-gap-16 pc-reset"><div 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https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_96,h_96,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack.com%2Fimg%2Favatars%2Fdefault-light.png 96w" width="32" height="32" draggable="false" class="img-OACg1c pencraft pc-reset"/></picture></div></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-gap-8 flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset"><textarea name="body" placeholder="Write a comment..." rows="4" class="pencraft input-qHk4bN autogrowing-_ipn9Y textarea-GbEjRX inputText-pV_yWb"></textarea><div style="height:0px;transition:height 250ms var(--animation-smoothing), opacity 250ms var(--animation-smoothing);display:block;flex-direction:column;opacity:0;"><div style="padding-top:0.05px;padding-bottom:0.05px;display:block;flex:0 0 auto;flex-direction:column;transition:transform 250ms var(--animation-smoothing);"></div></div></div></form></div></div><div class="comment-list post-page-root-comment-list"><div class="comment-list-items"><div class="comment"><div id="comment-17149201" class="comment-anchor"></div><div id="comment-17149201-reply" class="comment-anchor"></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-12 pc-paddingBottom-12 pc-reset comment-content"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-reset"><a href="https://substack.com/profile/105265637-paul-prae?utm_source=comment" class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset"><div style="--scale:32px;" tabindex="0" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-width-32 pc-height-32 pc-justifyContent-center pc-alignItems-center pc-position-relative flexAuto-Bzdrdy pc-reset bg-secondary-UUD3_J animate-XFJxE4 outline-detail-vcQLyr pc-borderRadius-full overflow-hidden-WdpwT6 sizing-border-box-DggLA4 pressable-sm-YIJFKJ showFocus-sk_vEm container-TAtrWj interactive-UkK0V6"><div style="--scale:32px;" title="Paul Prae" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-width-32 pc-height-32 pc-justifyContent-center pc-alignItems-center pc-position-relative flexAuto-Bzdrdy pc-reset 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src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_32,h_32,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d3c5230-bca9-49bd-83d4-6c747cd63170_398x398.jpeg" sizes="32px" alt srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_32,h_32,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d3c5230-bca9-49bd-83d4-6c747cd63170_398x398.jpeg 32w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_64,h_64,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d3c5230-bca9-49bd-83d4-6c747cd63170_398x398.jpeg 64w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_96,h_96,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7d3c5230-bca9-49bd-83d4-6c747cd63170_398x398.jpeg 96w" width="32" height="32" draggable="false" class="img-OACg1c pencraft pc-reset"/></picture></div></div></a></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-gap-4 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-minWidth-0 pc-gap-8 pc-alignItems-center pc-height-20 pc-reset line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-15-Psle70 weight-regular-mUq6Gb"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-minWidth-0 pc-gap-6 pc-alignItems-center flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-6 pc-reset line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-13-hZTUKr weight-regular-mUq6Gb reset-IxiVJZ"><span class="pencraft pc-reset weight-medium-fw81nC reset-IxiVJZ"><div class="profile-hover-card-target profileHoverCardTarget-PBxvGm inline-lJXy8b"><span class="pencraft pc-reset decoration-hover-underline-ClDVRM reset-IxiVJZ"><a href="https://substack.com/profile/105265637-paul-prae?utm_source=substack-feed-item" showBack class="link-LIBpto">Paul Prae</a></span></div></span></div><div class="publicationHoverCardTarget-sPJ4jb"></div><a href="https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/licensing-is-neither-feasible-nor/comment/17149201" rel="nofollow" native title="Jun 10, 2023, 2:44 PM" class="pencraft pc-reset color-secondary-ls1g8s decoration-hover-underline-ClDVRM reset-IxiVJZ"><span class="pencraft pc-reset color-secondary-ls1g8s line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-13-hZTUKr weight-regular-mUq6Gb reset-IxiVJZ">Jun 10, 2023</span></a></div></div></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset"></div><div id="trigger259403" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="dialog" aria-controls="dialog259404" ariaLabel="View more" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-reset triggerContainer-eX588u"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft trigger-j08Uop iconButton2-DvFP7w iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonNew-KfJF0Q size_sm-G3LciD priority_quaternary-kpMibu"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-ellipsis"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="1"></circle><circle cx="19" cy="12" r="1"></circle><circle cx="5" cy="12" r="1"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="comment-body"><p><span>The most important part of this narrative for me is how licensing and regulation will cripple small businesses and empower big tech companies. It’s already so hard and expensive to start a successful software business. As a working class, we’re already at a severe disadvantage because of how much of our digital lives and the internet is in control of a few big tech companies and telecom providers. We need more startups and open source competition in this space to help distribute power and wealth. </span></p><p><span>The important part of this for consumers to understand is that developing and distributing AI systems and ML models is going to continue to get (exponentially) easier and cheaper. It’s becoming just as easy as building a website or mobile app and think about how many of those exist. </span></p><p><span>Similarly, AI and ML systems can be built and deployed on any computer. Most people have several in their home. Computing is ubiquitous and so will be these systems. This also means anyone can build these systems and hide their development as well as anything else you can hide on a computer. </span></p><div role="button" class="show-all-toggle"><div class="show-all-toggle-label">Expand full comment</div></div></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-16 pc-paddingTop-8 pc-justifyContent-flex-start pc-alignItems-center pc-reset comment-actions withShareButton-hQzuEn"><span class="pencraft pc-reset decoration-hover-underline-ClDVRM reset-IxiVJZ"><a class="pencraft pc-reset link-_X6et2 link-LIBpto"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-6 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="var(--color-secondary-themed)" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-message-circle"><path d="M7.9 20A9 9 0 1 0 4 16.1L2 22Z"></path></svg><div class="pencraft pc-reset color-pub-secondary-text-hGQ02T line-height-20-t4M0El 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var(--animation-smoothing), opacity 250ms var(--animation-smoothing);display:block;flex-direction:column;opacity:0;"><div style="padding-top:0.05px;padding-bottom:0.05px;display:block;flex:0 0 auto;flex-direction:column;transition:transform 250ms var(--animation-smoothing);"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="comment"><div id="comment-17409680" class="comment-anchor"></div><div id="comment-17409680-reply" class="comment-anchor"></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-12 pc-paddingBottom-12 pc-reset comment-content"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-reset"><a href="https://substack.com/profile/38995445-john-malcolm-wells?utm_source=comment" class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset"><div style="--scale:32px;" tabindex="0" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-width-32 pc-height-32 pc-justifyContent-center pc-alignItems-center pc-position-relative flexAuto-Bzdrdy pc-reset bg-secondary-UUD3_J animate-XFJxE4 outline-detail-vcQLyr pc-borderRadius-full overflow-hidden-WdpwT6 sizing-border-box-DggLA4 pressable-sm-YIJFKJ showFocus-sk_vEm container-TAtrWj interactive-UkK0V6"><div style="--scale:32px;" title="John Malcolm Wells" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-width-32 pc-height-32 pc-justifyContent-center pc-alignItems-center pc-position-relative flexAuto-Bzdrdy pc-reset bg-secondary-UUD3_J outline-detail-vcQLyr pc-borderRadius-full overflow-hidden-WdpwT6 sizing-border-box-DggLA4 container-TAtrWj"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_32,h_32,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3da67f76-4802-4f4c-b937-bb6eeb638139_450x450.jpeg 32w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_64,h_64,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3da67f76-4802-4f4c-b937-bb6eeb638139_450x450.jpeg 64w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_96,h_96,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3da67f76-4802-4f4c-b937-bb6eeb638139_450x450.jpeg 96w" sizes="32px"/><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_32,h_32,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3da67f76-4802-4f4c-b937-bb6eeb638139_450x450.jpeg" sizes="32px" alt srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_32,h_32,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3da67f76-4802-4f4c-b937-bb6eeb638139_450x450.jpeg 32w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_64,h_64,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3da67f76-4802-4f4c-b937-bb6eeb638139_450x450.jpeg 64w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_96,h_96,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3da67f76-4802-4f4c-b937-bb6eeb638139_450x450.jpeg 96w" width="32" height="32" draggable="false" class="img-OACg1c pencraft pc-reset"/></picture></div></div></a></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-gap-4 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-minWidth-0 pc-gap-8 pc-alignItems-center pc-height-20 pc-reset line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-15-Psle70 weight-regular-mUq6Gb"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-minWidth-0 pc-gap-6 pc-alignItems-center flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-6 pc-reset line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-13-hZTUKr weight-regular-mUq6Gb reset-IxiVJZ"><span class="pencraft pc-reset weight-medium-fw81nC reset-IxiVJZ"><div class="profile-hover-card-target profileHoverCardTarget-PBxvGm inline-lJXy8b"><span class="pencraft pc-reset decoration-hover-underline-ClDVRM reset-IxiVJZ"><a href="https://substack.com/profile/38995445-john-malcolm-wells?utm_source=substack-feed-item" showBack class="link-LIBpto">John Malcolm Wells</a></span></div></span></div><div class="publicationHoverCardTarget-sPJ4jb"></div><a href="https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/licensing-is-neither-feasible-nor/comment/17409680" rel="nofollow" native title="Jun 16, 2023, 11:46 PM" class="pencraft pc-reset color-secondary-ls1g8s decoration-hover-underline-ClDVRM reset-IxiVJZ"><span class="pencraft pc-reset color-secondary-ls1g8s line-height-20-t4M0El font-text-qe4AeH size-13-hZTUKr weight-regular-mUq6Gb reset-IxiVJZ">Jun 16, 2023</span></a></div></div></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column flexGrow-tjePuI pc-reset"></div><div id="trigger259405" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="dialog" aria-controls="dialog259406" ariaLabel="View more" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-reset triggerContainer-eX588u"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft trigger-j08Uop iconButton2-DvFP7w iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonNew-KfJF0Q size_sm-G3LciD priority_quaternary-kpMibu"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-ellipsis"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="1"></circle><circle cx="19" cy="12" r="1"></circle><circle cx="5" cy="12" r="1"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="comment-body"><p><span>Licensing or any other solution focused on the technology will not work simply because the problem is not technology but the economic system that requires it to be exploited. Witness the spectacle of the brightest minds researching AI simultaneously warning of the potential for extinction and begging the government to slow them down or even stop them. If AI is so dangerous, why not just stop? Because our economic system requires they continue, regardless of the consequences. Until that problem is solved, nothing else will work. </span></p><div role="button" class="show-all-toggle"><div class="show-all-toggle-label">Expand full comment</div></div></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-16 pc-paddingTop-8 pc-justifyContent-flex-start pc-alignItems-center pc-reset comment-actions withShareButton-hQzuEn"><span class="pencraft pc-reset decoration-hover-underline-ClDVRM reset-IxiVJZ"><a class="pencraft pc-reset link-_X6et2 link-LIBpto"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-6 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="var(--color-secondary-themed)" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-message-circle"><path d="M7.9 20A9 9 0 1 0 4 16.1L2 22Z"></path></svg><div class="pencraft pc-reset color-pub-secondary-text-hGQ02T line-height-20-t4M0El font-meta-MWBumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw81nC 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of thousands of subscribers\",\"mux_env_key\":\"u42pci814i6011qg3segrcpp9\",\"sentry_environment\":\"production\",\"launchWelcomePage\":false,\"noIndex\":false,\"post\":{\"audience\":\"everyone\",\"audience_before_archived\":null,\"canonical_url\":\"https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/licensing-is-neither-feasible-nor\",\"default_comment_sort\":null,\"editor_v2\":false,\"exempt_from_archive_paywall\":false,\"free_unlock_required\":false,\"id\":127227859,\"podcast_art_url\":null,\"podcast_duration\":null,\"podcast_preview_upload_id\":null,\"podcast_upload_id\":null,\"podcast_url\":\"\",\"post_date\":\"2023-06-10T12:21:13.068Z\",\"updated_at\":\"2024-07-25T20:21:07.242Z\",\"publication_id\":1008003,\"search_engine_description\":null,\"search_engine_title\":null,\"section_id\":null,\"should_send_free_preview\":false,\"show_guest_bios\":true,\"slug\":\"licensing-is-neither-feasible-nor\",\"social_title\":\"Licensing is neither feasible nor effective for addressing AI risks\",\"subtitle\":\"Non-proliferation only benefits incumbents \",\"teaser_post_eligible\":true,\"title\":\"Licensing is neither feasible nor effective for addressing AI risks\",\"type\":\"newsletter\",\"video_upload_id\":null,\"write_comment_permissions\":\"everyone\",\"is_metered\":false,\"restacks\":0,\"reactions\":{\"\u2764\":42},\"top_exclusions\":[],\"pins\":[],\"section_pins\":[],\"previous_post_slug\":\"is-avoiding-extinction-from-ai-really\",\"next_post_slug\":\"is-ai-generated-disinformation-a\",\"cover_image\":\"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4239d7c6-4f55-4254-91f2-20b9b2bec77e_1118x639.jpeg\",\"cover_image_is_square\":false,\"cover_image_is_explicit\":false,\"videoUpload\":null,\"podcastFields\":{\"post_id\":127227859,\"podcast_episode_number\":null,\"podcast_season_number\":null,\"podcast_episode_type\":null,\"should_syndicate_to_other_feed\":null,\"syndicate_to_section_id\":null,\"hide_from_feed\":false,\"free_podcast_url\":null,\"free_podcast_duration\":null},\"podcastUpload\":null,\"podcastPreviewUpload\":null,\"voiceover_upload_id\":null,\"voiceoverUpload\":null,\"has_voiceover\":false,\"description\":\"Non-proliferation only benefits incumbents\",\"body_html\":\"<p>Many people and organizations have argued that one way to make AI safer is by non-proliferation, <a href=\\\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/iaea-for-ai-that-model-has-already-failed-chaptgpt-technology-nuclear-proliferation-4339543b\\\">similar to nuclear weapons or human cloning</a>. </p><p>This would mean that only certain licensed companies and organizations can build state-of-the-art AI models. The argument is that this would allow the government to contain the spread of harmful AI models, have oversight into what AI tools are built and how they are deployed, and thus be able to guide the development of AI in a socially beneficial way. </p><p>Similar arguments underlie other attempts to forestall AI development, for instance, in the <a href=\\\"https://aisnakeoil.substack.com/p/a-misleading-open-letter-about-sci\\\">Future of Life Institute's letter</a> arguing for a six-month pause on training models bigger than GPT-4.</p><h4><strong>Licensing is infeasible to enforce</strong></h4><p>If regulators commit to non-proliferation, how would they enforce it? It is not enough to require that developers obtain licenses, because malicious actors can simply ignore the licensing requirements and proceed with training AI models. </p><p>One approach that\u2019s been suggested is to <a href=\\\"https://openai.com/blog/governance-of-superintelligence\\\">surveil data centers</a> where models are trained and hosted. This proposal relies on the fact that AI requires lots of computing resources. In theory, data centers would need to report when a customer uses above a certain level of computing resources, which could prompt an investigation. </p><p>But as algorithmic and hardware improvements reduce costs for training models at a given capability level, this approach would require increasingly draconian surveillance measures and an unprecedented level of international cooperation to be effective. Though training state-of-the-art models like GPT-4 is <a href=\\\"https://www.wired.com/story/openai-ceo-sam-altman-the-age-of-giant-ai-models-is-already-over/\\\">expensive</a>, the cost is <a href=\\\"https://www.mosaicml.com/blog/mpt-7b\\\">rapidly dropping</a>, both because of the decrease in hardware costs and due to improvements in the algorithms used to train AI models.</p><p>To see the long-term trends, we can look at computer vision. Between 2012 and 2019, training an image recognition classifier with the same performance became <a href=\\\"https://openai.com/research/ai-and-efficiency\\\">44 times cheaper</a>. </p><p>As of this writing, one of the most capable open-source language models, <a href=\\\"https://falconllm.tii.ae/\\\">Falcon</a>, required fewer than 400 GPUs and only two months to train. We estimate that such a model can be trained for a cost of less than USD 1 million.<a class=\\\"footnote-anchor\\\" data-component-name=\\\"FootnoteAnchorToDOM\\\" id=\\\"footnote-anchor-1\\\" href=\\\"#footnote-1\\\" target=\\\"_self\\\">1</a></p><p>Further, the technical know-how required to build large language models is already widespread, and there are several open-source LLMs developed by organizations that share their <a href=\\\"https://github.com/mosaicml/llm-foundry\\\">entire code and training methodology</a>. Because of these reasons, non-proliferation is infeasible from an enforcement perspective.</p><p>OpenAI and others have proposed that licenses would be required only for the most powerful models, above a certain training compute threshold. Perhaps that is more feasible \u2014 but again, unless all capable actors voluntarily comply, enforcement would be possible only by giving governments extraordinary powers. </p><p>And let's be clear about what it could accomplish: It would, at most, buy a few years of time. For any given capability threshold, training costs are likely to keep dropping due to both hardware and algorithmic improvements. Once the costs are low enough, the set of actors who can fund the development of such models will be too high to police.</p><div class=\\\"subscription-widget-wrap-editor\\\" data-attrs=\\\"{"url":"https://www.aisnakeoil.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe","language":"en"}\\\" data-component-name=\\\"SubscribeWidgetToDOM\\\"><div class=\\\"subscription-widget show-subscribe\\\"><div class=\\\"preamble\\\"><p class=\\\"cta-caption\\\">You\u2019re reading AI Snake Oil, a blog about our upcoming book. Subscribe to get new posts.</p></div><form class=\\\"subscription-widget-subscribe\\\"><input type=\\\"email\\\" class=\\\"email-input\\\" name=\\\"email\\\" placeholder=\\\"Type your email\u2026\\\" tabindex=\\\"-1\\\"><input type=\\\"submit\\\" class=\\\"button primary\\\" value=\\\"Subscribe\\\"><div class=\\\"fake-input-wrapper\\\"><div class=\\\"fake-input\\\"></div><div class=\\\"fake-button\\\"></div></div></form></div></div><h4><strong>Licensing will increase concentration and may worsen AI risks</strong></h4><p>Despite the proliferation of AI models themselves, a small number of big tech companies stand to <a href=\\\"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4135581\\\">profit greatly</a> from the generative AI wave: whether by integrating it into their apps (e.g., Google, Microsoft, and Apple), by selling API access (e.g., OpenAI and Anthropic), or by selling hardware (NVIDIA).</p><p>Such concentration harms competition. Committing to non-proliferation would further increase this risk, because only a handful of companies would be able to develop state-of-the-art AI. </p><p>Further, decades of experience in the field of information security suggest that it\u2019s better to deal with with security risks openly instead of \\\"security through obscurity.\\\" In particular, non-proliferation and the resulting concentration of power would impact five major AI risks:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Monoculture may worsen security risks.</strong> When thousands of apps are all powered by the same model (GPT-3.5 is already in this position today), security vulnerabilities in this model can be exploited across all of these different applications.</p></li><li><p><strong>Monoculture may lead to outcome homogenization.</strong> The use of the same AI model across different applications increases <a href=\\\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.13972\\\">homogenization</a>, including in consequential settings such as resume screening. If a candidate applies to multiple jobs, instead of being evaluated independently by the different companies, they could be rejected from all of them if all companies use the same AI tool for hiring. </p></li><li><p><strong>Defining the boundaries of acceptable speech.</strong> In some ways, generative AI apps are similar to social media platforms where people generate and consume content. If most people use models created by a small group of providers, these developers get outsized power in defining the Overton windows of acceptable speech, by governing what is and isn't allowed in conversations. </p></li><li><p><strong>Influencing attitudes and opinions.</strong> If people use chatbots as conversation partners, the \u201Copinions\u201D expressed by them could influence people\u2019s views on a massive scale. There is evidence for this from a <a href=\\\"https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3544548.3581196\\\">recent study</a>.</p></li><li><p><strong>Regulatory capture.</strong> The ongoing lobbying for a licensing regime can be seen as <a href=\\\"https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/19/23728174/ai-regulation-senate-hearings-regulatory-capture-laws\\\">regulatory capture</a>. If it succeeds, it would give AI companies even more power in policy debates. Instead of engaging with the arguments, they could <a href=\\\"https://fortune.com/2023/05/15/former-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-tells-government-to-leave-regulation-of-ai-to-big-tech-openai-chatgpt-bardai-midjourney/\\\">dismiss critics</a> as uninformed outsiders lacking expertise on AI capabilities and risks.</p></li></ol><p>One way to avoid concentration is the development and evaluation of state-of-the-art models by a diverse group of academics, companies, and NGOs. We believe this would be a better way to uncover and address AI risks. Of course, open-source AI presents its own risks and requires guardrails. What might those guardrails look like? We plan to share a few ideas soon.</p><div class=\\\"footnote\\\" data-component-name=\\\"FootnoteToDOM\\\"><a id=\\\"footnote-1\\\" href=\\\"#footnote-anchor-1\\\" class=\\\"footnote-number\\\" contenteditable=\\\"false\\\" target=\\\"_self\\\">1</a><div class=\\\"footnote-content\\\"><p>The model was trained on <a href=\\\"https://pub.towardsai.net/falcon-40b-a-fully-opensourced-foundation-llm-945dd9824157\\\">384 Nvidia A100 GPUs for 60 days</a>. The hourly rate of using one such GPU on AWS varies from <a href=\\\"https://aws.amazon.com/ec2/instance-types/p4/\\\">USD 1.44 to USD 4.10</a>. Bulk costs are generally lower than hourly costs. </p></div></div>\",\"truncated_body_text\":\"Many people and organizations have argued that one way to make AI safer is by non-proliferation, similar to nuclear weapons or human cloning.\",\"wordcount\":928,\"postTags\":[{\"id\":\"37caad47-2b5a-49e8-bc6f-3e68e38cae48\",\"publication_id\":1008003,\"name\":\"AI policy\",\"slug\":\"ai-policy\",\"hidden\":false}],\"postCountryBlocks\":[],\"coverImagePalette\":{\"Vibrant\":{\"rgb\":[25,98,218],\"population\":108},\"DarkVibrant\":{\"rgb\":[133,70,41],\"population\":35},\"LightVibrant\":{\"rgb\":[244,166,107],\"population\":10},\"Muted\":{\"rgb\":[178,116,79],\"population\":5},\"DarkMuted\":{\"rgb\":[30,25,26],\"population\":416},\"LightMuted\":{\"rgb\":[191,189,188],\"population\":129}},\"publishedBylines\":[{\"id\":891603,\"name\":\"Sayash Kapoor\",\"handle\":\"sayash\",\"previous_name\":null,\"photo_url\":\"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/30f87ce8-8dbc-468f-8f8b-9fbf430e323c_976x974.png\",\"bio\":\"CS PhD candidate at Princeton. I study the societal impact of AI. Author of AI Snake Oil book and substack: http://aisnakeoil.com \",\"profile_set_up_at\":\"2022-07-19T16:16:04.452Z\",\"publicationUsers\":[{\"id\":953545,\"user_id\":891603,\"publication_id\":1008003,\"role\":\"admin\",\"public\":true,\"is_primary\":false,\"publication\":{\"id\":1008003,\"name\":\"AI Snake Oil\",\"subdomain\":\"aisnakeoil\",\"custom_domain\":\"www.aisnakeoil.com\",\"custom_domain_optional\":false,\"hero_text\":\"Debunking AI hype. 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It\u2019s already so hard and expensive to start a successful software business. As a working class, we\u2019re already at a severe disadvantage because of how much of our digital lives and the internet is in control of a few big tech companies and telecom providers. We need more startups and open source competition in this space to help distribute power and wealth. \\n\\nThe important part of this for consumers to understand is that developing and distributing AI systems and ML models is going to continue to get (exponentially) easier and cheaper. It\u2019s becoming just as easy as building a website or mobile app and think about how many of those exist. \\n\\nSimilarly, AI and ML systems can be built and deployed on any computer. Most people have several in their home. Computing is ubiquitous and so will be these systems. This also means anyone can build these systems and hide their development as well as anything else you can hide on a computer. \",\"body_json\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"attrs\":{\"schemaVersion\":\"v1\"},\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"The most important part of this narrative for me is how licensing and regulation will cripple small businesses and empower big tech companies. It\u2019s already so hard and expensive to start a successful software business. As a working class, we\u2019re already at a severe disadvantage because of how much of our digital lives and the internet is in control of a few big tech companies and telecom providers. We need more startups and open source competition in this space to help distribute power and wealth.\"}]},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"The important part of this for consumers to understand is that developing and distributing AI systems and ML models is going to continue to get (exponentially) easier and cheaper. It\u2019s becoming just as easy as building a website or mobile app and think about how many of those exist.\"}]},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Similarly, AI and ML systems can be built and deployed on any computer. Most people have several in their home. Computing is ubiquitous and so will be these systems. This also means anyone can build these systems and hide their development as well as anything else you can hide on a computer.\"}]}]},\"publication_id\":1008003,\"post_id\":127227859,\"user_id\":105265637,\"ancestor_path\":\"\",\"type\":\"comment\",\"deleted\":false,\"date\":\"2023-06-10T14:44:29.685Z\",\"edited_at\":null,\"status\":\"published\",\"pinned_by_user_id\":null,\"restacks\":0,\"name\":\"Paul Prae\",\"photo_url\":\"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7d3c5230-bca9-49bd-83d4-6c747cd63170_398x398.jpeg\",\"handle\":\"paulprae\",\"reactor_names\":[],\"reaction\":null,\"reactions\":{\"\u2764\":4},\"reaction_count\":4,\"children\":[],\"bans\":[],\"suppressed\":false,\"user_banned\":false,\"user_banned_for_comment\":false,\"user_slug\":\"paulprae\",\"metadata\":{\"is_author\":false,\"membership_state\":\"free_signup\",\"eligibleForGift\":false,\"author_on_other_pub\":{\"name\":\"Paul Prae\",\"id\":3072570,\"base_url\":\"https://paulprae.substack.com\"}},\"user_bestseller_tier\":null,\"can_dm\":false,\"score\":5,\"children_count\":0,\"reported_by_user\":false,\"restacked\":false},{\"id\":17409680,\"body\":\"Licensing or any other solution focused on the technology will not work simply because the problem is not technology but the economic system that requires it to be exploited. Witness the spectacle of the brightest minds researching AI simultaneously warning of the potential for extinction and begging the government to slow them down or even stop them. If AI is so dangerous, why not just stop? Because our economic system requires they continue, regardless of the consequences. Until that problem is solved, nothing else will work. \",\"body_json\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"attrs\":{\"schemaVersion\":\"v1\"},\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Licensing or any other solution focused on the technology will not work simply because the problem is not technology but the economic system that requires it to be exploited. Witness the spectacle of the brightest minds researching AI simultaneously warning of the potential for extinction and begging the government to slow them down or even stop them. If AI is so dangerous, why not just stop? Because our economic system requires they continue, regardless of the consequences. 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