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data-cloud-area="addition"> <article id="mArticle" class="box_view" data-cloud-area="article"> <div class="head_view" data-tiara-layer="article_head" data-cloud="newsview_pc_article_head"> <h3 class="tit_view" data-translation="true">한은, 내년 1%대 저성장 예고…16년만에 '연속 인하'로 대응(종합)</h3> <div class="info_view"> <span class="txt_info">남주현 기자</span> <span class="txt_info"><span class="num_date">2024. 11. 28. 15:06</span></span> </div> <div class="util_wrap"> <div class="util_view"> <div class="item_util" data-tiara-action-name="헤드음성_클릭"> <button type="button" class="btn_util btn_tts" data-tiara="음성버튼"> <span class="ico_view">음성으로 듣기</span> </button> <div id="ttsViewLayer" class="view_layer"> <div class="inner_view_layer inner_tts_layer"> <div class="layer_head"> <strong class="tit_layer">음성재생 설정</strong> </div> <div class="layer_body"> <ul class="list_tts"> <li> <input type="radio" id="inpMale" name="inpGender" class="inp_tts" value="Male"> <label class="lab_tts" for="inpMale"> <span 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data-tiara-action-name="헤드글씨크기_클릭"> <button type="button" class="btn_util btn_font" data-tiara="글씨크기_조절하기"> <span class="ico_view">글씨크기 조절하기</span> </button> <div class="view_layer"> <div class="inner_view_layer inner_fs_layer"> <div class="layer_head"> <strong class="tit_layer">글자크기 설정</strong> <span class="info_layer">파란원을 좌우로 움직이시면 글자크기가 변경 됩니다.</span> </div> <div class="layer_body"> <div class="set_fs"> <span class="txt_fs txt_small" aria-hidden="true">가</span> <ul class="list_fs"> <li> <input type="radio" id="inpFont1" name="inpFont" class="inp_fs" value="17" checked> <label class="lab_fs" for="inpFont1">매우 작은 폰트</label> </li> <li> <input type="radio" id="inpFont2" name="inpFont" class="inp_fs" value="18"> <label class="lab_fs" for="inpFont2">작은 폰트</label> </li> <li> <input type="radio" id="inpFont3" name="inpFont" class="inp_fs" value="19"> <label class="lab_fs" for="inpFont3">보통 폰트</label> </li> <li> <input type="radio" id="inpFont4" name="inpFont" class="inp_fs" value="21"> <label class="lab_fs" for="inpFont4">큰 폰트</label> </li> <li> <input type="radio" id="inpFont5" name="inpFont" class="inp_fs" value="23"> <label class="lab_fs" for="inpFont5">매우 큰 폰트</label> </li> </ul> <span class="txt_fs txt_big" aria-hidden="true">가</span> </div> <div class="set_view fs_type1"> <p>이 글자크기로 변경됩니다.</p> <p>(예시) 가장 빠른 뉴스가 있고 다양한 정보, 쌍방향 소통이 숨쉬는 다음뉴스를 만나보세요. 다음뉴스는 국내외 주요이슈와 실시간 속보, 문화생활 및 다양한 분야의 뉴스를 입체적으로 전달하고 있습니다.</p> </div> </div> <div class="layer_foot"> <a href="#none" class="link_close" data-tiara="글씨크기_닫기"> <span class="ico_view">닫기</span> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="item_util"> <button type="button" class="btn_util btn_print" data-tiara-action-name="헤드인쇄_클릭" data-tiara="인쇄하기"> <span class="ico_view">인쇄하기</span> </button> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="news_view fs_type1" data-cloud="article_body"> <div id="layerTranslateNotice" style="display:none;"></div> <strong class="summary_view" data-translation="true">금통위, 기준금리 3.00%로 2회 연속 금리 인하 단행<br>내년 성장률 1.9% 제시…2025년 성장률은 1.8%<br>美·中 무역갈등 땐 내년 성장률 1.7%로 전</strong> <div class="article_view" data-translation-body="true" data-tiara-layer="article_body" data-tiara-action-name="본문이미지확대_클릭"> <section dmcf-sid="336GcZvafr"> <figure class="figure_frm origin_fig" dmcf-pid="0er45PKGBw" dmcf-ptype="figure"> <p class="link_figure"><img alt="[서울=뉴시스] 사진공동취재단 = 이창용 한국은행 총재가 28일 서울 중구 한국은행에서 열린 통화정책방향 기자간담회에서 발언하고 있다. 2024.11.28. photo@newsis.com" class="thumb_g_article" data-org-src="https://t1.daumcdn.net/news/202411/28/newsis/20241128150631448zzdr.jpg" data-org-width="720" dmcf-mid="1TJ3OUZw2O" dmcf-mtype="image" height="auto" src="https://img1.daumcdn.net/thumb/R658x0.q70/?fname=https://t1.daumcdn.net/news/202411/28/newsis/20241128150631448zzdr.jpg" width="658"></p> <figcaption class="txt_caption default_figure"> [서울=뉴시스] 사진공동취재단 = 이창용 한국은행 총재가 28일 서울 중구 한국은행에서 열린 통화정책방향 기자간담회에서 발언하고 있다. 2024.11.28. photo@newsis.com </figcaption> </figure> <p dmcf-pid="pF8YAXSgBD" dmcf-ptype="general"><br> [서울=뉴시스]남주현 기자 = 트럼프 귀환에 한국은행이 우리 경제에 대해 내년에 이어 내후년까지 1%대 저성장을 예상하며 16년 만에 연속 금리 인하를 단행해 대응에 나섰다. 1400원을 넘나드는 고환율에도 심상치 않은 반도체 경기과 트럼프 관세 폭탄에 따른 수출 타격 등을 고려한 조치다. </p> <p dmcf-pid="U0PHk5TN2E" dmcf-ptype="general">이창용 한은 총재는 금리 인하 제약 요소로 평가되던 고환율와 변동성에 대해 국내 외환보유고와 국민연금과의 스와프로 대응이 충분하다고 자신하며 수출 부진 우려에 선제적으로 금리 인하에 나서야 했던 필요성에 대해 강조했다. </p> <p dmcf-pid="u7R1r3Gkqk" dmcf-ptype="general">한은 금융통화위원회는 28일 오전 서울 중구 한은 본부에서 11월 통화정책방향 회의를 열고 기준금리를 종전 3.25%에서 3.00%로 낮췄다. 2회 연속 인하는 글로벌 금융위기인 2008년 10월(임시 금통위 포함)부터 이듬해 2월까지 6회 연속 인하 이후 16년 여만에 처음일 정도로 드물다. </p> <p dmcf-pid="7Nvd7nQ0bc" dmcf-ptype="general">이에 따라 한·미 금리차는 1.50%포인트에서 1.75%포인트로 다시 확대됐다. 앞서 금통위는 지난해 2월부터 올해 8월까지 13회 연속 금리를 묶은 후 지난달 금리 인하에 나서 3년2개월 만에 긴축 종료를 알렸다. 금리 인하로만 보면 4년 5개월 만이다.</p> <p dmcf-pid="zcWnBgRufA" dmcf-ptype="general">당초 시장에서는 11월 금통위에서 고환율을 이유로 한은이 금리 동결에 나설 것으로 예상했다. 트럼프 당선을 전후로 환율이 1400원대를 넘나들면서 외국인 이탈 우려를 부추길 수 있다는 점에서 한은이 섣불리 금리 인하를 선택하기 쉽지 않다는 점에서다. </p> <p dmcf-pid="qF8YAXSgVj" dmcf-ptype="general">그럼에도 한은이 연속 인하에 나선 것은 최근 반도체 경기 부진에 이어 트럼프 취임 후 관세 정책 시행으로 우리 수출 타격이 예상되면서 11월을 선제적으로 금리를 낮춰 경기를 부양할 적기라고 판단한 것을 보인다. </p> <p dmcf-pid="BwXa2AiBfN" dmcf-ptype="general">11월 통화정책방향결정문(통방문)에서는 "수출 증가세는 주력 업종에서의 경쟁 심화, 보호무역주의 강화 등으로 당초 예상보다 낮아질 것"이라면서 트럼프 귀환에 따른 수출 타격 우려가 담겼다. 이창용 총재도 기자간담회 내내 트럼프 재집권에 따른 수출 부진과 경제 침체 가능성에 대해 우려했다. </p> <p dmcf-pid="bIFk6waVqa" dmcf-ptype="general">실제 우리나라는 2분기 역성장에 이어 3분기 성장률도 0.1%에 그쳤다. 여기에 한은은 이날 경제전망을 통해 올해 성장률 전망치를 종전 2.4%에서 2.2%로 낮췄고, 내년과 내후년 전망치로는 각각 1.9%, 1.7%를 제시했다. 현실화되면 2023년 이후 2년 만에 다시 1%대 저성장을 기록하게 된다. </p> <p dmcf-pid="Ks1A4Eo92g" dmcf-ptype="general">특히 시나리오 분석을 통해서는 트럼프 당선 후 보호 무역 강화에 중국 등의 대응을 가정한 최악의 상황에서는 내년 성장률이 1.7%로 떨어질 것이란 전망도 내놨다. 러시아와 우크라이나 전쟁과 중동 갈등 심화시에는 1.8%의 성장률을 예상했다. <br> </p> <figure class="figure_frm origin_fig" dmcf-pid="9lpwxsA89o" dmcf-ptype="figure"> <p class="link_figure"><img alt="[팜비치=AP/뉴시스] 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령 당선인이 지난 14일(현지시각) 플로리다 팜비치에서 열린 미국우선정책연구소 갈라쇼에 참석한 모습. 2024.11.22." class="thumb_g_article" data-org-src="https://t1.daumcdn.net/news/202411/28/newsis/20241128150631674sevm.jpg" data-org-width="719" dmcf-mid="tvjBy9Ul9s" dmcf-mtype="image" height="auto" src="https://img4.daumcdn.net/thumb/R658x0.q70/?fname=https://t1.daumcdn.net/news/202411/28/newsis/20241128150631674sevm.jpg" width="658"></p> <figcaption class="txt_caption default_figure"> [팜비치=AP/뉴시스] 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령 당선인이 지난 14일(현지시각) 플로리다 팜비치에서 열린 미국우선정책연구소 갈라쇼에 참석한 모습. 2024.11.22. </figcaption> </figure> <p dmcf-pid="2RwfZ6bYVL" dmcf-ptype="general"><br> 이 총재는 "미국 대선 결과에 우리나라뿐만 아니라 전 세계적으로 정책 불확실성이 확대됐고, 3분기에 수출 물량이 크게 낮아졌는데, 경쟁국과의 수출 경쟁이 심화되고 구조적인 요인이 크다고 봤다"면서 "미국의 신정부 정책 불확실성에 2026년 전망 변동성은 더 클 것"이라고 내다봤다. </p> <p dmcf-pid="V0PHk5TNKn" dmcf-ptype="general">경제 전망을 담당하는 김웅 한은 부총재보도 기자간담회를 통해 성장률 전망치 하향에 대해 "미국 신정부의 경제 정책 변화와 구조적 변화에 따른 수출 둔화가 주된 이유"면서 "미국 관세 정책은 신정부 출범 후 다시 짚어볼 수 있다는 점에서 불확실성이 크다"고 언급했다. </p> <p dmcf-pid="fLCx0e41bi" dmcf-ptype="general">이 총재는 금리 인하에 따른 성장 부양 효과와 함께 추가 통화정책 완화도 시사했다. 그는 "기준금리를 0.25%포인트 낮출 경우 경제성장률을 0.07%포인트 올릴 수 있을 것으로 추정된다"면서 "어느 정도 더 많이 또는 어느 속도로 내릴 것인지에 따라 그 영향이 달라질 것"이라고 했다.</p> <p dmcf-pid="4PcKYV7v9J" dmcf-ptype="general">금리 인하가 경제 둔화의 주된 이유인 수출의 반등으로 이어지기 어렵다는 지적에 대해서도 "수출이 낮아질 경우 내수로 전파되는 온기가 낮아질 것을 대비해서 금리를 낮췄다"면서 "전체 경제성장률을 받쳐주는데 큰 역할을 할 것"이라고 설명했다.</p> <p dmcf-pid="8PcKYV7vBd" dmcf-ptype="general">아울러 금리 인하를 가로막던 환율에 대해서는 우려할 수준이 아니라는 평가를 내놨다. 이 총재는 "특정 환율 수준 타겟도, 특정 환율 수준을 위기로 보지 않는다"면서 "미국 대선 전후로 달러 강세에 (원화가) 빠르게 절하됐지만 최근 숨을 고르는 모습으로 다른 화폐보다 크게 나쁘지 않다"고 평가했다.</p> <p dmcf-pid="6KnpC71mKe" dmcf-ptype="general">그러면서 "변동성을 관리하는데 있어 우리나라 외환보유고는 충분한 수준이며, 국민연금과도 스와프 금액을 확대해 재연장하는 것을 논의 중"이라면서 "정부와의 정책 협조를 통해 변동성을 완화하는 여러 수단을 동원해 정책을 추진하겠다"고 말했다. <br> </p> <figure class="figure_frm origin_fig" dmcf-pid="PnIQ3Rf5KR" dmcf-ptype="figure"> <p class="link_figure"><img alt="[서울=뉴시스] 한국은행이 내년 1%대의 저성장을 전망하고 2회 연속 금리 인하로 경기 부양에 나섰다. 통상 통화정책 효과는 4분기 가량 시차를 두고 반영된다는 점에 금리 인하가 시급했다는 해석이다. (그래픽=안지혜 기자) hokma@newsis.com" class="thumb_g_article" data-org-src="https://t1.daumcdn.net/news/202411/28/newsis/20241128150631817czda.jpg" data-org-width="536" dmcf-mid="FDLUhzts9m" dmcf-mtype="image" height="auto" src="https://img4.daumcdn.net/thumb/R658x0.q70/?fname=https://t1.daumcdn.net/news/202411/28/newsis/20241128150631817czda.jpg" width="658"></p> <figcaption class="txt_caption default_figure"> [서울=뉴시스] 한국은행이 내년 1%대의 저성장을 전망하고 2회 연속 금리 인하로 경기 부양에 나섰다. 통상 통화정책 효과는 4분기 가량 시차를 두고 반영된다는 점에 금리 인하가 시급했다는 해석이다. (그래픽=안지혜 기자) hokma@newsis.com </figcaption> </figure> <p dmcf-pid="QIFk6waVqM" dmcf-ptype="general"><br> 이번 금통위에서는 장용성 위원과 부총재인 유상대 위원이 동결 소수의견을 내며 균열이 생겼다. 향후 3개월 내 금리 수준을 언급하는 한국판 포워드가이던스에서는 금통위원 6명 중 3명은 3.00% 유지가 적절하다는 의견을, 3명은 이보다 낮은 수준으로 인하할 가능성을 열어둬야 한다며 갈렸다. </p> <p dmcf-pid="xJs6tx2XKx" dmcf-ptype="general">이 총재는 "3명은 중립금리 수준을 볼때 추가 금리 인하 여력을 고려해 금리 인하 속도를 점진적으로 조절해 나갈 필요가 있다는 의견을 냈고, 나머지 3명은 성장 전망 불확실성이 높은 만큼 향후 경기 전망의 변화에 따라 금리를 추가 인하할 가능성도 열어두자는 의견"이라고 설명했다.</p> <p dmcf-pid="y0PHk5TNKQ" dmcf-ptype="general">한은의 깜짝 금리 인하에 대해 정부는 즉각 환영 의사를 밝혔다. 최상목 부총리 겸 기획재정부 장관은 라디오 방송에 출연해 "내수와 민생이 어려운 가운데 금리 인하가 긍정적 영향을 줄 것으로 기대한다"며 "정부도 내수와 민생 회복을 위해 정책 노력을 강화하겠다"고 말했다.</p> <p dmcf-pid="W8jBy9UlVP" dmcf-ptype="general">이 총재는 이날 기자간담회에서 금리 인하 타이밍이 늦었다는 실기론에 대해서도 재차 반박했다. 그는 8월에 (금리 인하를) 한 번 쉬어감으로써 상당한 정도의 가계부채를 안정시키고 부동산 가격이 올라가는 동력을 막았다"며 "8월 금리 동결을 자랑스럽게 생각한다"고 말했다. </p> <p dmcf-pid="Y9LUhztsb6" dmcf-ptype="general">최근 불거진 롯데 위기설에 대해 "오래전부터 알려진 문제로, 그룹 자체가 굉장히 건실하기 때문에 시장에 주는 충격은 적을 것"이라고 했다. 차기 국무총리설에 대해서는 "현재 경제 상황이 녹록지 않은 만큼 한은 총재로서 맡은 바 현재 업무에 충실한 것이 가장 중요하다"고 일축했다.</p> <p dmcf-pid="Gt4WjHlo28" dmcf-ptype="general"><span>☞공감언론 뉴시스</span> njh32@newsis.com </p> </section> </div> <p class="" data-translation="true">Copyright © 뉴시스. 무단전재 및 재배포 금지.</p> </div> <div class="viewrelate_wrap" data-cloud="newsview_pc_related_news"> <div class="viewrelate_tit"> <strong class="tit_viewrelate">뉴시스에서 직접 확인하세요.</strong> <span class="txt_viewrelate">해당 언론사로 이동합니다.</span> </div> <ul class="list_viewrelate" data-tiara-ordnum-layer data-tiara-layer="media_related_news" data-tiara-action-name="본문아웃링크_클릭" data-tiara-action-kind="ClickContent"> <li> <a href="https://www.newsis.com/view/NISX20250328_0003118282" class="link_txt" target="_blank" data-type="rss" data-tiara="리스트"> "옷 다 벗고"…김수현, 17세 김새론에 보낸 카톡 </a> </li> <li> <a href="https://www.newsis.com/view/NISX20250328_0003118252" class="link_txt" target="_blank" data-type="rss" data-tiara="리스트"> "김수현, 처음에 김새론 교제 인정했어야…잘못 대응" 변호사 지적 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