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shocks</title> <meta name="description" content="Search results for: public debt shocks"> <meta name="keywords" content="public debt shocks"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, minimum-scale=1, maximum-scale=1, user-scalable=no"> <meta charset="utf-8"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon" rel="shortcut icon"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/bootstrap-4.2.1/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/plugins/fontawesome/css/all.min.css" rel="stylesheet"> <link href="https://cdn.waset.org/static/css/site.css?v=150220211555" rel="stylesheet"> </head> <body> <header> <div class="container"> <nav class="navbar navbar-expand-lg navbar-light"> <a class="navbar-brand" href="https://waset.org"> <img src="https://cdn.waset.org/static/images/wasetc.png" alt="Open Science Research Excellence" title="Open Science Research Excellence" /> </a> <button class="d-block d-lg-none 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action="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search"> <div id="custom-search-input"> <div class="input-group"> <i class="fas fa-search"></i> <input type="text" class="search-query" name="q" placeholder="Author, Title, Abstract, Keywords" value="public debt shocks"> <input type="submit" class="btn_search" value="Search"> </div> </div> </form> </div> </div> <div class="row mt-3"> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Commenced</strong> in January 2007</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Frequency:</strong> Monthly</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Edition:</strong> International</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Paper Count:</strong> 6051</div> </div> </div> </div> <h1 class="mt-3 mb-3 text-center" style="font-size:1.6rem;">Search results for: public debt shocks</h1> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6051</span> The Sustainability of Public Debt in Taiwan</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Chiung-Ju%20Huang">Chiung-Ju Huang</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This study examines whether the Taiwan’s public debt is sustainable utilizing an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root. The empirical results show that Taiwan’s public debt appears as a nonlinear series and is stationary in regime 1 but not in regime 2. This result implies that while Taiwan’s public debt was mostly sustainable over the 1996 to 2013 period examined in the study, it may no longer be sustainable in the most recent two years as the public debt ratio has increased cumulatively to 3.618%. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=nonlinearity" title="nonlinearity">nonlinearity</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20debt" title=" public debt"> public debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=sustainability" title=" sustainability"> sustainability</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=threshold%20autoregressive%20model" title=" threshold autoregressive model"> threshold autoregressive model</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/10069/the-sustainability-of-public-debt-in-taiwan" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/10069.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">449</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6050</span> Public Debt Shocks and Public Goods Provisioning in Nigeria: Implication for National Development</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Amenawo%20I.%20Offiong">Amenawo I. Offiong</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Hodo%20B.%20Riman"> Hodo B. Riman</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Public debt profile of Nigeria has continuously been on the increase over the years. The drop in international crude oil prices has further worsened revenue position of the country, thus, necessitating further acquisition of public debt to bridge the gap in revenue deficit. Yet, when we look back at the increasing public sector spending, there are concerns that the government spending do not amount to increase in public goods provided for the country. Using data from 1980 to 2014 the study therefore seeks to investigate the factors responsible for the poor provision of public goods in the face of increasing public debt profile. Using the unrestricted VAR model Governance and Tax revenue were introduced into the model as structural variables. The result suggested that governance and tax revenue were structural determinants of the effectiveness of public goods provisioning in Nigeria. The study therefore identified weak governance as the major reason for the non-provision of public goods in Nigeria. While tax revenue exerted positive influence on the provisions of public goods, weak/poor governance was observed to crowd the benefits from increase tax revenue. The study therefore recommends reappraisal of the governance system in Nigeria. Elected officers in governance should be more transparent and accountable to the electorates they represent. Furthermore, the study advocates for an annual auditing of all government MDAs accounts by external auditors to ensure (a) accountability of public debts utilization, (b) transparent in implementation of program support funds, (c) integrity of agencies responsible for program management, and (d) measuring program effectiveness with amount of funds expended. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=impulse%20response%20function" title="impulse response function">impulse response function</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20debt%20shocks" title=" public debt shocks"> public debt shocks</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=governance" title=" governance"> governance</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20goods" title=" public goods"> public goods</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=tax%20revenue" title=" tax revenue"> tax revenue</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=vector%20auto-regression" title=" vector auto-regression"> vector auto-regression</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/42628/public-debt-shocks-and-public-goods-provisioning-in-nigeria-implication-for-national-development" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/42628.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">273</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6049</span> Fiscal Stability Indicators and Public Debt Trajectory in Croatia</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Hrvoje%20Simovic">Hrvoje Simovic</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Paper analyses the key problems of fiscal sustainability in Croatia. To point out key challenges of fiscal sustainability, the public debt sustainability is analyzed using standard indicators of fiscal stability, accompanied with the identification of regime changes approach in the public debt trajectory using switching regression approach. The analysis is conducted for the period from 2001 to 2016. Results show huge vulnerability in recession period (2009-14), so key challenges in current fiscal policy and public debt management are recognized in maturity prolongation, interest rates trends, and credit rating expectations. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fiscal%20sustainability" title="fiscal sustainability">fiscal sustainability</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20debt" title=" public debt"> public debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Croatia" title=" Croatia"> Croatia</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=budget%20deficit" title=" budget deficit"> budget deficit</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/87621/fiscal-stability-indicators-and-public-debt-trajectory-in-croatia" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/87621.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">260</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6048</span> Interest Charges and Sustainability Challenges: The Case of OECD Countries</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Aime%20Philombe%20Zapji%20Ymele">Aime Philombe Zapji Ymele</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Servicing public debt is a significant budgetary burden. In the sense that the payment of interest charges is a liability on the balance sheet of the public budget and affects fiscal policy. Interest charges can sometimes become a burden if they crowd out private activities. In order to analyse and understand the determinants of the debt burden and its impact on the sustainability of public finances, the present work focuses on OECD countries. It is noted from the literature that the factors that determine interest charges are macroeconomic (inflation, GDP growth, and interest rates) and public finances (primary balance and public debt). After analysing a panel of 33 OECD countries and using ordinary least squares (OLS), we find that public debt, inflation, and long-term interest rates are positively correlated with interest charges. An increase in any of these variables leads to an increase in debt charges. On the other hand, a growth in GDP is negatively associated with interest charges. Indeed, an increase in GDP generates enough revenue to meet the repayment of debt charges. According to the empirical analysis, we can say that, despite the large and growing debt-to-GDP ratio of major OECD countries, interest charges are not a threat to the sustainability of public finances. However, it is important for these countries to reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP because, in the face of the many challenges (health, aging population, etc.) that are looming on the horizon, an increase in interest rates could bring with it considerable burdens that would threaten the budgetary balance of these states. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=interest%20charges" title="interest charges">interest charges</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=sustainability" title=" sustainability"> sustainability</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20debt" title=" public debt"> public debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=interest%20rates" title=" interest rates"> interest rates</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/147075/interest-charges-and-sustainability-challenges-the-case-of-oecd-countries" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/147075.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">123</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6047</span> Interest Charges and Sustainability Challenges: The Case of OECD Countries</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Zapji%20Ymele%20Aime%20Philombe">Zapji Ymele Aime Philombe</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Servicing public debt is a significant budgetary burden in the sense that the payment of interest charges is a liability on the balance sheet of the public budget and affects fiscal policy. Interest charges can sometimes become a burden if they crowd out private activities. In order to analyse and understand the determinants of the debt burden and its impact on the sustainability of public finances, the present work focuses on OECD countries. It is noted from the literature that the factors that determine interest charges are macroeconomic (inflation, GDP growth and interest rates) and public finances (primary balance and public debt). After analysing a panel of 33 OECD countries and using ordinary least squares (OLS), we find that public debt, inflation and long-term interest rates are positively correlated with interest charges. An increase in any of these variables leads to an increase in debt charges. On the other hand, a growth in GDP is negatively associated with interest charges. Indeed, an increase in GDP generates enough revenue to meet the repayment of debt charges. According to the empirical analysis, we can say that, despite the large and growing debt-to-GDP ratio of major OECD countries, interest charges are not a threat to the sustainability of public finances. However, it is important for these countries to reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP because, in the face of the many challenges (health, aging population, etc.) that are looming on the horizon, an increase in interest rates could bring with it considerable burdens that would threaten the budgetary balance of these states. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=interests%20charges" title="interests charges">interests charges</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20debt" title=" public debt"> public debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=sustainability" title=" sustainability"> sustainability</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=interest%20rates" title=" interest rates"> interest rates</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/143275/interest-charges-and-sustainability-challenges-the-case-of-oecd-countries" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/143275.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">121</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6046</span> A Dynamic Panel Model to Evaluate the Impact of Debt Relief on Poverty</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Loujaina%20Abdelwahed">Loujaina Abdelwahed</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Debt relief granted to low-and middle-income countries effectively provides additional funds for governments that can be used to increase public investment on poverty-reducing services to alleviate poverty and boost economic growth. However, little is known about the extent to which the poor benefit from the increased public investment. This study aims to assess the impact of debt relief granted through multiple initiatives during the 1990s on poverty reduction. In particular, it assesses the impact on the level, depth and severity of poverty in 76 low-and middle income countries over the period 1990-2011. Debt relief is found to have a significant impact on reducing the level, the depth and the severity of poverty. Analysis of the different types of debt relief reveals that debt service relief reduces poverty, whereas debt principle relief does not have a significant impact. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20relief" title="debt relief">debt relief</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=developing%20countries" title=" developing countries"> developing countries</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=HIPC" title=" HIPC"> HIPC</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=poverty" title=" poverty"> poverty</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=system%20GMM%20estimator" title=" system GMM estimator"> system GMM estimator</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/48907/a-dynamic-panel-model-to-evaluate-the-impact-of-debt-relief-on-poverty" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/48907.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">398</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6045</span> The Optimal Public Debt Ceiling in Taiwan: A Simulation Approach</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Ho%20Yuan-Hong">Ho Yuan-Hong</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Huang%20Chiung-Ju"> Huang Chiung-Ju </a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This study conducts simulation analyses to find the optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan, while factoring in welfare maximization under a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The simulation is based on Taiwan's 2001 to 2011 economic data and shows that welfare is maximized at a "debt"⁄"GDP" ratio of 0.2, increases in the "debt"⁄"GDP " ratio leads to increases in both tax and interest rates and decreases in the consumption ratio and working hours. The study results indicate that the optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan is 20% of GDP, where if the "debt"⁄"GDP" ratio is greater than 40%, the welfare will be negative and result in welfare loss. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20sustainability" title="debt sustainability">debt sustainability</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=optimal%20debt%20ceiling" title=" optimal debt ceiling"> optimal debt ceiling</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=dynamic%20stochastic%20general%20equilibrium" title=" dynamic stochastic general equilibrium"> dynamic stochastic general equilibrium</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=welfare%20maximization" title=" welfare maximization"> welfare maximization</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/29739/the-optimal-public-debt-ceiling-in-taiwan-a-simulation-approach" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/29739.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">357</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6044</span> Effects of Cash Transfers Mitigation Impacts in the Face of Socioeconomic External Shocks: Evidence from Egypt</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Basma%20Yassa">Basma Yassa</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Evidence on cash transfers’ effectiveness in mitigating macro and idiosyncratic shocks’ impacts has been mixed and is mostly concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia with very limited evidence from the MENA region. Yet conditional cash transfers schemes have been continually used, especially in Egypt, as the main social protection tool in response to the recent socioeconomic crises and macro shocks. We use 2 panel datasets and 1 cross-sectional dataset to estimate the effectiveness of cash transfers as a shock-mitigative mechanism in the Egyptian context. In this paper, the results from the different models (Panel Fixed Effects model and the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model) confirm that micro and macro shocks lead to significant decline in several household-level welfare outcomes and that Takaful cash transfers have a significant positive impact in mitigating the negative shock impacts, especially on households’ debt incidence, debt levels, and asset ownership, but not necessarily on food, and non-food expenditure levels. The results indicate large positive significant effects on decreasing household incidence of debt by up to 12.4 percent and lowered the debt size by approximately 18 percent among Takaful beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries’. Similar evidence is found on asset ownership levels, as the RDD model shows significant positive effects on total asset ownership and productive asset ownership, but the model failed to detect positive impacts on per capita food and non-food expenditures. Further extensions are still in progress to compare the models’ results with the DID model results when using a nationally representative ELMPS panel data (2018/2024) rounds. Finally, our initial analysis suggests that conditional cash transfers are effective in buffering the negative shock impacts on certain welfare indicators even after successive macro-economic shocks in 2022 and 2023 in the Egyptian Context. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=cash%20transfers" title="cash transfers">cash transfers</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fixed%20effects" title=" fixed effects"> fixed effects</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=household%20welfare" title=" household welfare"> household welfare</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=household%20debt" title=" household debt"> household debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=micro%20shocks" title=" micro shocks"> micro shocks</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=regression%20discontinuity%20design" title=" regression discontinuity design"> regression discontinuity design</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/183836/effects-of-cash-transfers-mitigation-impacts-in-the-face-of-socioeconomic-external-shocks-evidence-from-egypt" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/183836.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">46</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6043</span> Public Debt and Fiscal Stability in Nigeria</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Abdulkarim%20Yusuf">Abdulkarim Yusuf</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Motivation: The Nigerian economy has seen significant macroeconomic instability, fuelled mostly by an overreliance on fluctuating oil revenues. The rising disparity between tax receipts and government spending in Nigeria necessitates government borrowing to fund the anticipated pace of economic growth. Rising public debt and fiscal sustainability are limiting the government's ability to invest in key infrastructure that promotes private investment and growth in Nigeria. Objective: This paper fills an empirical research vacuum by examining the impact of public debt on fiscal sustainability in Nigeria, given the significance of fiscal stability in decreasing poverty and the constraints that an unsustainable debt burden imposes on it. Data and method: Annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2022 exposed to conventional and structural breaks stationarity tests and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag estimation approach were adopted for this study. Results: The results reveal that domestic debt stock, debt service payment, foreign reserve stock, exchange rate, and private investment all had a major adverse effect on fiscal stability in the long and short run, corroborating the debt overhang and crowding-out hypothesis. External debt stock, prime lending rate, and degree of trade openness, which boosted fiscal stability in the long run, had a major detrimental effect on fiscal stability in the short run, whereas foreign direct investment inflows had an important beneficial impact on fiscal stability in both the long and short run. Implications: The results indicate that fiscal measures that inspire domestic resource mobilization, sustainable debt management techniques, and dependence on external debt to boost deficit financing will improve fiscal stability and drive growth. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=ARDL%20co-integration" title="ARDL co-integration">ARDL co-integration</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20overhang" title=" debt overhang"> debt overhang</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20servicing" title=" debt servicing"> debt servicing</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fiscal%20stability" title=" fiscal stability"> fiscal stability</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20debt" title=" public debt"> public debt</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/184499/public-debt-and-fiscal-stability-in-nigeria" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/184499.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">57</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6042</span> Usage of Military Spending, Debt Servicing and Growth for Dealing with Emergency Plan of Indian External Debt</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sahbi%20Farhani">Sahbi Farhani</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This study investigates the relationship between external debt and military spending in case of India over the period of 1970–2012. In doing so, we have applied the structural break unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of the variables. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to test whether cointegration exists in presence of structural breaks stemming in the series. Our results indicate the cointegration among external debt, military spending, debt servicing, and economic growth. Moreover, military spending and debt servicing add in external debt. Economic growth helps in lowering external debt. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis and Granger causality test reveal that military spending and economic growth cause external debt. The feedback effect also exists between external debt and debt servicing in case of India. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=external%20debt" title="external debt">external debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=military%20spending" title=" military spending"> military spending</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=ARDL%20approach" title=" ARDL approach"> ARDL approach</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=India" title=" India"> India</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/47057/usage-of-military-spending-debt-servicing-and-growth-for-dealing-with-emergency-plan-of-indian-external-debt" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/47057.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">296</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6041</span> The Third World Debt Burden and the Implication for Economic Development</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Odeh%20Ibn%20Iganga">Odeh Ibn Iganga</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The issue of foreign debt, debt crisis or the concept of Third World debt burden generally gained prominence after the end of the cold war which pitched the United States and the former Soviet Union against each other in an ideological supremacy tussle. Before then however, Third World Countries (TWCs) enjoyed a relative economic resilience and stability and ostensibly friendly relations with the leaders of the polarized blocks in a way to garner supports for, and as an instrument of strengthening and expanding influence and power of the leaders of the two blocs, and achieve their goals. Consequently, the Third World concept lost its political relevance and usage perhaps, too, its economic comportment, and eventually became phraseology synonymous with developing countries bedeviled with debt crisis and struggling to emerge from debt burden, economic underdevelopment and poverty. Since then, also, particularly during the last two decades, the issue of Third World debt burden, which is currently posing significant problems, has a considerable attracted public policy and academic scrutiny. Third World debt burden thus is not a recent phenomenon but is a result of, and due to, pursuance of foreign aid from countries of the North which had, from the start, created the condition of economic subservience and master-servant relationship that could generate persistent seeking and lobbing for foreign aids through borrowing, thus tying down in a perpetual manner, most of the Third World Countries to underdevelopment, dependency and poverty. The interest of this paper, therefore, is to examine the causes, costs and or the implications of the debt burden on the economies of the Third World Countries, review some general solutions to the debt burden as well as offering suggestions as a way out of the doldrums. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=third%20world" title="third world">third world</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20burden" title=" debt burden"> debt burden</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20crisis" title=" debt crisis"> debt crisis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=economic%20development%20and%20underdevelopment" title=" economic development and underdevelopment"> economic development and underdevelopment</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/35314/the-third-world-debt-burden-and-the-implication-for-economic-development" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/35314.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">357</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6040</span> Impact of Sovereign Debt Risk and Corrective Austerity Measures on Private Sector Borrowing Cost in Euro Zone</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Syed%20Noaman%20Shah">Syed Noaman Shah</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The current paper evaluates the effect of external public debt risk on the borrowing cost of private non-financial firms in euro zone. Further, the study also treats the impact of austerity measures on syndicated-loan spreads of private firm followed by euro area member states to revive the economic growth in the region. To test these hypotheses, we follow multivariate ordinary least square estimation method to assess the effect of external public debt on the borrowing cost of private firms. By using foreign syndicated-loan issuance data of non-financial private firms from 2005 to 2011, we attempt to gauge how the private financing cost varies with high levels of sovereign external debt prevalent in the euro zone. Our results suggest significant effect of external public debt on the borrowing cost of private firm. In particular, an increase in external public debt by one standard deviation from its sample mean raises syndicated-loan spread by 89 bps. Furthermore, weak creditor rights protection prevalent in member states deepens this effect. However, we do not find any significant effect of domestic public debt on the private sector borrowing cost. In addition, the results show significant effect of austerity measures on private financing cost, both in normal and in crisis period in the euro zone. In particular, one standard deviation change in fiscal consolidation conditional mean reduces the syndicated-loan spread by 22 bps. In turn, it indicates strong presence of credibility channel due to austerity measures in euro area region. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=corporate%20debt" title="corporate debt">corporate debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fiscal%20consolidation" title=" fiscal consolidation"> fiscal consolidation</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=sovereign%20debt" title=" sovereign debt"> sovereign debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=syndicated-loan%20spread" title=" syndicated-loan spread"> syndicated-loan spread</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/27213/impact-of-sovereign-debt-risk-and-corrective-austerity-measures-on-private-sector-borrowing-cost-in-euro-zone" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/27213.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">412</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6039</span> Debt Relief for Emerging Economies: An Empirical Investigation</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Hummad%20Ch.%20Umar">Hummad Ch. Umar </a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Most of the developing economies, including Pakistan, are confronted with high level of external debt which is adversely affecting their economic performance. The hypothesis of debt overhang is often used to assess the negative relationship between foreign debt and the economic growth of the indebted country. As first objective of the present study, this hypothesis is tested by using Pooled OLS (POLS), Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), Random Effect (RE), and Fixed effect (FE) techniques. As second objective, the study uses the concept of debt Laffer Curve to determine the eligibility condition of the indebted countries for the relief programs. According to this approach, countries lying on the right side of the Laffer Curve are stated to be trapped in the strong debt overhang making them unable to come out of the vicious circle of low growth and high foreign debt. The empirical analysis confirms that only two countries out of twenty two completely fulfill the conditions of being eligible for the debt relief. All other countries continue to face debt burden of different magnitudes. The study further confirms that the debt relief alone is not sufficient for overcoming the debt problem. Instead, sound economic policies and conducive investment decisions are required to lay the foundations of long-term growth and development. Debt relief should be the option for only those countries that meet a minimum measurable criterion of good governance, economic freedom, and consistency of policies. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=external%20debt" title="external debt">external debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20burden" title=" debt burden"> debt burden</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20overhang" title=" debt overhang"> debt overhang</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20laffer%20curve" title=" debt laffer curve"> debt laffer curve</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20relief" title=" debt relief"> debt relief</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=investment%20decisions" title=" investment decisions"> investment decisions</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/38102/debt-relief-for-emerging-economies-an-empirical-investigation" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/38102.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">326</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6038</span> Political Regimes, Political Stability and Debt Dependence in African Countries of Franc Zone: A Logistic Modeling</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Nounamo%20Nguedie%20Yann%20Harold">Nounamo Nguedie Yann Harold</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The factors behind the debt have been the subject of several studies in the literature. Pioneering studies based on the 'double deficit' approach linked indebtedness to the imbalance between savings and investment, the budget deficit and the current account deficit. Most studies on identifying factors that may stimulate or reduce the level of external public debt agree that the following variables are important explanatory variables in leveraging debt: the budget deficit, trade opening, current account and exchange rate, import, export, interest rate, term variation exchange rate, economic growth rate and debt service, capital flight, and over-indebtedness. Few studies addressed the impact of political factors on the level of external debt. In general, however, the IMF's stabilization programs in developing countries following the debt crisis have resulted in economic recession and the advent of political crises that have resulted in changes in governments. In this sense, political institutions are recognised as factors of accumulation of external debt in most developing countries. This paper assesses the role of political factors on the external debt level of African countries in the Franc Zone over the period 1985-2016. Data used come from World Bank and ICRG. Using a logit in panel, the results show that the more a country is politically stable, the lower the external debt compared to the gross domestic product. Political stability multiplies 1.18% the chances of being in the sustainable debt zone. For example, countries with good political institutions experience less severe external debt burdens than countries with bad political institutions. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=African%20countries" title="African countries">African countries</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=external%20debt" title=" external debt"> external debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Franc%20Zone" title=" Franc Zone"> Franc Zone</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=political%20factors" title=" political factors"> political factors</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/86865/political-regimes-political-stability-and-debt-dependence-in-african-countries-of-franc-zone-a-logistic-modeling" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/86865.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">219</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6037</span> Methods of Categorizing Architectural Technical Debt</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Blessing%20Igbadumhe">Blessing Igbadumhe</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The continuous long- and short-term delivery of value to customers continues to be the overarching objective of software organizations. Software engineering professionals and organizations face challenges in the maintenance and evolution of software as a result of architectural, technical debt. The issues of architectural, technical debt continue to receive a significant amount of attention because of its important impact on successful system implementation. The cost of doing nothing as far as architectural, technical debt is concerned can be significant both in financial terms and impacts on customers. Different architectural, technical debt issues exist, and this qualitative research design reviewed existing literature on the subject to identify and categorize them. This research intends to contribute to the existing bludgeoning body of knowledge on categorizations and descriptive model of technical debt related issues related to system architecture. The results identify the most common characteristics of architectural and technical debt categories. Raising awareness of the intricacies of architectural and technical debt helps technology stakeholders reduce negative consequences and increase the system success rate. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=architecture" title="architecture">architecture</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=categorizing%20TD" title=" categorizing TD"> categorizing TD</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=system%20design" title=" system design"> system design</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=technical%20debt" title=" technical debt"> technical debt</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/161734/methods-of-categorizing-architectural-technical-debt" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/161734.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">91</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6036</span> The Internationalization of Capital Market Influencing Debt Sustainability's Impact on the Growth of the Nigerian Economy</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Godwin%20Chigozie%20Okpara">Godwin Chigozie Okpara</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Eugine%20Iheanacho"> Eugine Iheanacho</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The paper set out to assess the sustainability of debt in the Nigerian economy. Precisely, it sought to determine the level of debt sustainability and its impact on the growth of the economy; whether internationalization of capital market has positively influenced debt sustainability’s impact on economic growth; and to ascertain the direction of causality between external debt sustainability and the growth of GDP. In the light of these objectives, ratio analysis was employed for the determination of debt sustainability. Our findings revealed that the periods 1986 – 1994 and 1999 – 2004 were periods of severe unsustainable borrowing. The unit root test showed that the variables of the growth model were integrated of order one, I(1) and the cointegration test provided evidence for long run stability. Considering the dawn of internationalization of capital market, the researcher employed the structural break approach using Chow Breakpoint test on the vector error correction model (VECM). The result of VECM showed that debt sustainability, measured by debt to GDP ratio exerts negative and significant impact on the growth of the economy while debt burden measured by debt-export ratio and debt service export ratio are negative though insignificant on the growth of GDP. The Cho test result indicated that internationalization of capital market has no significant effect on the debt overhang impact on the growth of the Economy. The granger causality test indicates a feedback effect from economic growth to debt sustainability growth indicators. On the bases of these findings, the researchers made some necessary recommendations which if followed religiously will go a long way to ameliorating debt burdens and engendering economic growth. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20sustainability" title="debt sustainability">debt sustainability</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=internalization" title=" internalization"> internalization</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=capital%20market" title=" capital market"> capital market</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=cointegration" title=" cointegration"> cointegration</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=chow%20test" title=" chow test"> chow test</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/42376/the-internationalization-of-capital-market-influencing-debt-sustainabilitys-impact-on-the-growth-of-the-nigerian-economy" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/42376.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">437</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6035</span> Foreign Debt and Firm Performance: Evidence from French Non-Financial Firms</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Salma%20Mefteh-Wali">Salma Mefteh-Wali</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Marie-Josephe%20Rigobert"> Marie-Josephe Rigobert</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> We investigate the impact of foreign currency debt on firm performance for a sample of non-financial French firms studied over the period 2002 to 2012. As foreign currency debt is both a financing and hedging instrument against foreign exchange risk, we mobilize optimal hedging theory and capital structure theory. When we study the impact on firm value, our main results show that before and after the financial crisis of 2008, foreign debt had the same behavior as domestic debt. We find that during the crisis period, foreign debt positively affects firm value. Investors perceive foreign debt as a natural hedging instrument that is likely to reduce the costs of underinvestment, alleviate cash flow volatility, limit the costs of financial distress, and generate tax shield benefits. Also, our results show that foreign leverage negatively affects the firm performance proxied by ROA and ROE, during and after the financial crisis. However, this impact is positive in the pre-crisis period. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=foreign%20currency%20derivatives" title="foreign currency derivatives">foreign currency derivatives</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=foreign%20currency%20debt" title=" foreign currency debt"> foreign currency debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=foreign%20currency%20hedging" title=" foreign currency hedging"> foreign currency hedging</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=firm%20performance" title=" firm performance"> firm performance</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/64691/foreign-debt-and-firm-performance-evidence-from-french-non-financial-firms" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/64691.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">311</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6034</span> The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Gross Domestic Product under Contributions of Level of External Debt in Developing Countries</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Zohreh%20Bang%20Tavakoli">Zohreh Bang Tavakoli</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Shuktika%20Chatterjee"> Shuktika Chatterjee</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This study investigates the fiscal policy impact on countries’ economic growth in developing countries with a different external debt level. The fiscal policy effectiveness has been re-emphasized in the global financial crisis of 2008 with the external debt as its new contemporary driver (Ruščáková and Semančíková, 2016). According to Bouakez, (2014 ) different theories have proposed the economic consequence of fiscal policy, specifically for developing countries. However, fiscal policy literature is lacking research regarding the fiscal policy’s effectiveness with the external debt’s contributions through comprehensive study (Canh, 2018). Also, according to scholars, high levels of external debt will influence economic growth. First, through foreign resources and channel of investment in which high level of debt decreases the amount of foreign investment in the developing countries. Second, through the deterioration of foreign investors and fiscal policies related to a high level of debt (Cordella, et.al., 2010). Therefore, this study proposed that only countries with a low external debt level and appropriate fiscal policies and good quality institutions can gain the proper quantity and quality of foreign investors, which will help the economic growth. For this, this research is examining the impact of fiscal policy on developing countries' economic growth in the situation of different external debt levels. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fiscal%20policy" title="fiscal policy">fiscal policy</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=external%20debt" title=" external debt"> external debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=gross%20domestic%20product" title=" gross domestic product"> gross domestic product</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=developing%20countries" title=" developing countries"> developing countries</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/139300/the-impact-of-fiscal-policy-on-gross-domestic-product-under-contributions-of-level-of-external-debt-in-developing-countries" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/139300.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">160</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6033</span> The Influence of Oil Price Fluctuations on Macroeconomics Variables of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Khalid%20Mujaljal">Khalid Mujaljal</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Hassan%20Alhajhoj"> Hassan Alhajhoj</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This paper empirically investigates the influence of oil price fluctuations on the key macroeconomic variables of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using unrestricted VAR methodology. Two analytical tools- Granger-causality and variance decomposition are used. The Granger-causality test reveals that almost all specifications of oil price shocks significantly Granger-cause GDP and demonstrates evidence of causality between oil price changes and money supply (M3) and consumer price index percent (CPIPC) in the case of positive oil price shocks. Surprisingly, almost all specifications of oil price shocks do not Granger-cause government expenditure. The outcomes from variance decomposition analysis suggest that positive oil shocks contribute about 25 percent in causing inflation in the country. Also, contribution of symmetric linear oil price shocks and asymmetric positive oil price shocks is significant and persistent with 25 percent explaining variation in world consumer price index till end of the period. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Granger%20causality" title="Granger causality">Granger causality</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=oil%20prices%20changes" title=" oil prices changes"> oil prices changes</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Saudi%20Arabian%20economy" title=" Saudi Arabian economy"> Saudi Arabian economy</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=variance%20decomposition" title=" variance decomposition"> variance decomposition</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/7014/the-influence-of-oil-price-fluctuations-on-macroeconomics-variables-of-the-kingdom-of-saudi-arabia" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/7014.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">322</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6032</span> The Effect of Public Debt on the Economic Growth and Development in Nigeria</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Uzoma%20Emmanuel%20Igboji">Uzoma Emmanuel Igboji</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This paper examines the influence of public debts (external and internal) on economic growth and development in Nigeria from (1980-2015). The study uses aggregate GDP as a proxy for economic growth, per capital income as a proxy for standard of living and Government expenditure on health as a proxy for human capital development, while Foreign Direct Investment, Unemployment rate, and Oil revenue were used as control variables. The study made use of ex-post facto research design with the data extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and the World Bank database. It adopted a multiple regression analysis of the ordinary least square (OLS) method with the help of E-View version 3.0. The results revealed that external debt has a negative and insignificant effect on GDP, per capital income and human capital development. The study concluded that external debts were being channeled to meet the recurrent expenditures of the nation’s economy at the expense of productive investment that could stimulate growth and poverty alleviation. It, however, recommended that government should ensure that the bulk of the total borrowings are mostly sourced from within the domestic economy so that the repayment of the principal and interest will serve as a crowd in-effect rather that crowd out-effect which in turn further accelerates the country’s economic growth and development. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=economic%20growth" title="economic growth">economic growth</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=external%20debt" title=" external debt"> external debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=internal%20debt" title=" internal debt"> internal debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Nigeria" title=" Nigeria"> Nigeria</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/74960/the-effect-of-public-debt-on-the-economic-growth-and-development-in-nigeria" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/74960.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">251</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6031</span> Impact of Foreign Debt on Economic Growth of Nigeria</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Gylych%20Jelilov">Gylych Jelilov</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> This paper investigates the effect of foreign debt on economic growth. Example has been chosen from Africa, Nigeria. By conducting cointegration test we have tested for a long-run relationship between. GDP = Real gross domestic product, EXTDEBT = External debt, INT = Interest rate, CAB = Current account balance, and EXCHR = Real exchange rate over the period 1990 to 2012. It was found out by the study that there is a negative but insignificant relationship between external debt and real gross domestic product. While a positive relationship exists between external debt and economic growth. Also, showed a negative and significant relationship between interest rate and real gross domestic product and there was a positive but insignificant relationship between current account balance and real gross domestic product. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=economic%20growth" title="economic growth">economic growth</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=foreign%20debt" title=" foreign debt"> foreign debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Nigeria" title=" Nigeria"> Nigeria</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=sustainable%20development" title=" sustainable development"> sustainable development</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=economic%20stability" title=" economic stability"> economic stability</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/35824/impact-of-foreign-debt-on-economic-growth-of-nigeria" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/35824.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">475</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6030</span> Effect of Interest-Based Debt Financing Upon Sustainable Development of Residents of Pakistan</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Gul%20Ghutai">Gul Ghutai</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Nouman%20Khan%20Kakar"> Nouman Khan Kakar</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Interest-Based Debt Disturbs The Financial, Social And Economic Structure Of The Country, Due To Which Sustainable Development Of The Masses Is Undermined. Such As, In Pakistan, The State’s Reliance Upon Interest-Based Debt (Both Foreign And National Levels) Affects The Socio-Economic Fabrication Of The Country, Thus Undermining The Sustainable Development Of Its Residents. The Objective Of The Study Is To Analyze The Effect Of Interest-Based Debt Financing On The Well-Being Of The Masses In Pakistan. The Question Arises Whether Interest-Based Debt Financing Undermines The Sustainable Development Of The Masses Of Pakistan Or Not. Moreover, Qualitative Research Methodology Is Pursued Towards Building A Conceptual Framework By Applying An Inductive Paradigm. It Is Expected That Interest-Based Debt, Whether Acquired From Foreign Or National Institutions By The Government Of Pakistan, Undermines The Sustainable Economic Growth Of The Country. However, The State Of Pakistan Is Under A Constitutional Obligation To Attain Sustainable Development Of Its Residents In Compliance With Islamic Shariah So That Eradication Of Interest From The Economy Of Pakistan Can Be Witnessed So That The Residents Of Pakistan Can Be Served To Attain Socio-Economic Well-Being Both Tangibly And Intangibly. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=socio-economic%20wellbeing" title="socio-economic wellbeing">socio-economic wellbeing</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=residents" title=" residents"> residents</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=sustainable%20development" title=" sustainable development"> sustainable development</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=interest-based%20debt" title=" interest-based debt"> interest-based debt</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/169366/effect-of-interest-based-debt-financing-upon-sustainable-development-of-residents-of-pakistan" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/169366.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">128</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6029</span> The Investigation of Oil Price Shocks by Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: The Case of Iran</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Bahram%20Fathi">Bahram Fathi</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Karim%20Alizadeh"> Karim Alizadeh</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Azam%20Mohammadbagheri"> Azam Mohammadbagheri</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of oil price shocks in explaining business cycles in Iran using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. The model with two shocks produces different values for volatility, but these values have the same ranking as that of the actual data for most variables. In addition, the actual data are close to the ratio of standard deviations to the output obtained from the model with two shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than the oil shocks. The model with only a productivity shock produces the most similar figures in term of volatility magnitude to that of the actual data. Next, we use the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) to evaluate the capability of the model. The IRF shows no effect of an oil shock on the capital stocks and on labor hours, which is a feature of the model. When the log-linearized system of equations is solved numerically, investment and labor hours were not found to be functions of the oil shock. This research recommends using different techniques to compare the model’s robustness. One method by which to do this is to have all decision variables as a function of the oil shock by inducing the stationary to the model differently. Another method is to impose a bond adjustment cost. This study intends to fill that gap. To achieve this objective, we derive a DSGE model that allows for the world oil price and productivity shocks. Second, we calibrate the model to the Iran economy. Next, we compare the moments from the theoretical model with both single and multiple shocks with that obtained from the actual data to see the extent to which business cycles in Iran can be explained by total oil revenue shock. Then, we use an impulse response function to evaluate the role of world oil price shocks. Finally, I present implications of the findings and interpretations in accordance with economic theory. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=oil%20price" title="oil price">oil price</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=shocks" title=" shocks"> shocks</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=dynamic%20stochastic%20general%20equilibrium" title=" dynamic stochastic general equilibrium"> dynamic stochastic general equilibrium</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Iran" title=" Iran"> Iran</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/27775/the-investigation-of-oil-price-shocks-by-using-a-dynamic-stochastic-general-equilibrium-the-case-of-iran" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/27775.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">438</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6028</span> Volatility Transmission among European Bank CDS</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Aida%20Alemany">Aida Alemany</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Laura%20Ballester"> Laura Ballester</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Ana%20Gonz%C3%A1lez-Urteaga"> Ana González-Urteaga</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> From 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis the European banking industry has experienced a terrible financial instability situation with increasing levels of CDS spreads (used as a proxy of credit risk). This paper investigates whether volatility transmission channels in European banking markets have changed after three significant crises’ events during the period January 2006 to March 2013. The global financial crisis is characterized by a unidirectional volatility shocks spillovers effect in credit risk from inside to outside the Eurozone. By contrast, the Eurozone debt crisis is revealed to be local in nature with the euro as the key element suggesting a market fragmentation between distressed peripheral and non-distressed core Eurozone countries, whereas retaining the local currency have acted as a firewall. With these findings we are able to shed light on the impact of the different crises on the European banking credit risk dynamics. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=CDS%20spreads" title="CDS spreads">CDS spreads</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=credit%20risk" title=" credit risk"> credit risk</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=volatility%20spillovers" title=" volatility spillovers"> volatility spillovers</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=financial%20crisis" title=" financial crisis"> financial crisis</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/21226/volatility-transmission-among-european-bank-cds" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/21226.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">468</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6027</span> The External Debt in the Context of Economic Growth: The Sample of Turkey</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Ay%C5%9Fen%20Edirneligil">Ayşen Edirneligil</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Mehmet%20Mucuk"> Mehmet Mucuk</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In developing countries, one of the most important restrictions about the economic growth is the lack of national savings which are supposed to finance the investments. In order to overcome this restriction and achieve the higher rate of economic growth by increasing the level of output, countries choose the external borrowing. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the correlation between external debt and economic growth. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of external debt on Turkish economic growth by using VAR analysis with the quarterly data over the period of 2002:01-2014:04. In this respect, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests will be used for analyses. Empirical findings show that there is no cointegration in the long run. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=external%20debt" title="external debt">external debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=economic%20growth" title=" economic growth"> economic growth</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Turkish%20economy" title=" Turkish economy"> Turkish economy</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=time%20series%20analysis" title=" time series analysis"> time series analysis</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/29395/the-external-debt-in-the-context-of-economic-growth-the-sample-of-turkey" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/29395.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">399</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6026</span> Co-Creating Value between Public Financial Management Institutions: An Integrated Approach towards Financial Sustainability</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Pascal%20Horni">Pascal Horni</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Sandro%20Fuchs"> Sandro Fuchs</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In presence of increasing deficits and public debt among OECD countries, the debate on fiscal disciple and mechanisms to constrain public spending policy heated up and gave rise to the institutionalization of fiscal rules. Considering the notions from political economy literature and the therein advocated axiom of maximization of votes, introduction of institutional mechanisms and rules to govern public spending is likely to be coined by electoral motives. While there exists a series of research concerned with the rise of creative accounting in the presence fiscal rules, implementation of accrual government accounting and its impact on the biting of fiscal rules has to authors’ best knowledge never been explored. This paper serves the illumination of the connection between debt break mechanisms and the adoption of accrual public sector accounting standards such as the IPSAS in the interface of political economy in the Swiss context. By explicitly considering the technical accounting dimension, this paper develops an integrated conceptual view on well-established Public Financial Management (PFM) institutions and elaborates how their interdependencies can co-create value with regard to the contemporary challenge of fiscal sustainability. Derivation of this integrated view follows an explorative approach, taking into account expert interviews with director level staff from cantonal finance administrations and policy documents, as well as literature from both research areas – public sector accounting and political economy. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=accounting" title="accounting">accounting</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fiscal%20rules" title=" fiscal rules"> fiscal rules</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=International%20Public%20Sector%20Accounting%20Standards%20%28IPSAS%29" title=" International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS)"> International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS)</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20financial%20management" title=" public financial management "> public financial management </a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/83770/co-creating-value-between-public-financial-management-institutions-an-integrated-approach-towards-financial-sustainability" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/83770.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">159</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6025</span> Food and Nutritional Security in the Context of Climate Change in Ethiopia: Using Household Panel Data</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Aemro%20Tazeze%20Terefe">Aemro Tazeze Terefe</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Mengistu%20K.%20Aredo"> Mengistu K. Aredo</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Abule%20M.%20Workagegnehu"> Abule M. Workagegnehu</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Wondimagegn%20M.%20Tesfaye"> Wondimagegn M. Tesfaye</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> Climate-induced shocks have been shown to reduce agricultural production and cause fluctuation in output in developing countries. When livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture, climate-induced shocks translate into consumption shocks. Despite the substantial improvements in household consumption, climate-induced shocks, and other factors adversely affect consumption dynamics at the household level in Ethiopia. Therefore, household consumption dynamics in the context of climate-induced shocks help to guide resilience capacity and establish appropriate interventions and programs. The research employed three-round panel data based on the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey with spatial rainfall data to define unique measures of rainfall variability. The linear dynamic panel model results show that the lagged value of consumption, market shocks, and rainfall variability positively affected consumption dynamics. In contrast, production shocks, temperature, and amount of rainfall had a negative relationship. Coping strategies mitigate adverse climate-induced shocks on consumption aftershocks that smooth consumption over time. Support to increase the resilience capacity of households can involve efforts to make existing livelihoods and forms of production or reductions in the vulnerability of households. Therefore, government interventions are mandatory for asset accumulation agendas that support household coping strategies and respond to shocks. In addition, the dynamic linkage between consumption and significant socioeconomic and institutional factors should be taken into account to minimize the effect of climate-induced shocks on consumption dynamics. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=climate%20shock" title="climate shock">climate shock</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Ethiopia" title=" Ethiopia"> Ethiopia</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=fixed-effect%20model" title=" fixed-effect model"> fixed-effect model</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=food%20security" title=" food security"> food security</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/163190/food-and-nutritional-security-in-the-context-of-climate-change-in-ethiopia-using-household-panel-data" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/163190.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">116</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6024</span> Consumer Over-Indebtedness in Germany: An Investigation of Key Determinants</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Xiaojing%20Wang">Xiaojing Wang</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Ann-Marie%20Ward"> Ann-Marie Ward</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Tony%20Wall"> Tony Wall</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The problem of over-indebtedness has increased since deregulation of the banking industry in the 1980s, and now it has become a major problem for most countries in Europe, including Germany. Consumer debt issues have attracted not only the attention of academics but also government and debt counselling institutions. Overall, this research aims to contribute to the knowledge gap regarding the causes of consumer over-indebtedness in Germany and to develop predictive models for assessing consumer over-indebtedness risk at consumer level. The situation of consumer over-indebtedness is serious in Germany. The relatively high level of social welfare support in Germany suggests that consumer debt problems are caused by other factors, other than just over-spending and income volatility. Prior literature suggests that the overall stability of the economy and level of welfare support for individuals from the structural environment contributes to consumers’ debt problems. In terms of cultural influence, the conspicuous consumption theory in consumer behaviour suggests that consumers would spend more than their means to be seen as similar profiles to consumers in a higher socio-economic class. This results in consumers taking on more debt than they can afford, and eventually becoming over-indebted. Studies have also shown that financial literacy is negatively related to consumer over-indebtedness risk. Whilst prior literature has examined structural and cultural influences respectively, no study has taken a collective approach. To address this gap, a model is developed to investigate the association between consumer over-indebtedness and proxies for influences from the structural and cultural environment based on the above theories. The model also controls for consumer demographic characteristics identified as being of influence in prior literature, such as gender and age, and adverse shocks, such as divorce or bereavement in the household. Benefiting from SOEP regional data, this study is able to conduct quantitative empirical analysis to test both structural and cultural influences at a localised level. Using German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study data from 2006 to 2016, this study finds that social benefits, financial literacy and the existence of conspicuous consumption all contribute to being over-indebted. Generally speaking, the risk of becoming over-indebted is high when consumers are in a low-welfare community, have little awareness of their own financial situation and always over-spend. In order to tackle the problem of over-indebtedness, countermeasures can be taken, for example, increasing consumers’ financial awareness, and the level of welfare support. By analysing causes of consumer over-indebtedness in Germany, this study also provides new insights on the nature and underlying causes of consumer debt issues in Europe. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=consumer" title="consumer">consumer</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt" title=" debt"> debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=financial%20literacy" title=" financial literacy"> financial literacy</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=socio-economic" title=" socio-economic"> socio-economic</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/100251/consumer-over-indebtedness-in-germany-an-investigation-of-key-determinants" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/100251.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">212</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6023</span> The Drama and Dynamics of Economic Shocks and Households Responses in Nigeria</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Doki%20Naomi%20Onyeje">Doki Naomi Onyeje</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Doki%20Gowon%20Ama"> Doki Gowon Ama</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> The past 4 years have been traumatic for Nigerians, having to deal with a number of complex economic issues with dire consequences for the economy. Households have had to respond variously to some of these problems in peculiar ways, depending, of course, on the nature and character of a particular shock. The type, magnitude, intensity and duration of a particular shock might be the determinant of different household responses. While households’ responses to the Global Financial Crisis and Covid 19 Pandemic have been documented by researchers, other economic shocks have continued to emerge in Nigeria. The dramatic turn of events since coming on board of the new government on May 29th 2023, has introduced a new economic twist that households will have to adjust to. This study, therefore, sets out to examine household responses by disaggregating them by their livelihood sources. A survey of 420 households across North Central Nigeria will be done to generate information on the respective responses. A Multinomial logit regression analysis will be employed to test the hypothesis that livelihood source(s) influences household responses to economic shocks. Consequently, responses from public and private households will be examined. The expected results should be that household responses might have some similarities, but it is expected that some peculiar responses across groups will emerge and these differences will guide for group-specific interventions. The Theatre for Development (TfD) approach will be used to disseminate and propagate results from this study to and among stakeholders for effective policy frameworks. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=drama" title="drama">drama</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=dynamics" title=" dynamics"> dynamics</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=economic%20shocks" title=" economic shocks"> economic shocks</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=household%20responses" title=" household responses"> household responses</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Nigeria" title=" Nigeria"> Nigeria</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/170578/the-drama-and-dynamics-of-economic-shocks-and-households-responses-in-nigeria" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/170578.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">73</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card paper-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">6022</span> Predicting Indonesia External Debt Crisis: An Artificial Neural Network Approach</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=Riznaldi%20Akbar">Riznaldi Akbar</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty. <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=debt%20crisis" title="debt crisis">debt crisis</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=external%20debt" title=" external debt"> external debt</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=artificial%20neural%20network" title=" artificial neural network"> artificial neural network</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=ANN" title=" ANN"> ANN</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/28240/predicting-indonesia-external-debt-crisis-an-artificial-neural-network-approach" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/28240.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">443</span> </span> </div> </div> <ul class="pagination"> <li class="page-item disabled"><span class="page-link">&lsaquo;</span></li> <li class="page-item active"><span class="page-link">1</span></li> <li class="page-item"><a class="page-link" href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20debt%20shocks&page=2">2</a></li> <li class="page-item"><a class="page-link" href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20debt%20shocks&page=3">3</a></li> <li class="page-item"><a class="page-link" href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20debt%20shocks&page=4">4</a></li> <li class="page-item"><a class="page-link" href="https://publications.waset.org/abstracts/search?q=public%20debt%20shocks&page=5">5</a></li> <li class="page-item"><a class="page-link" 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