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我的有色：再生铜2020年回顾及2021年预测-我的钢铁网
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href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0201-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','铜')" external>铜价格</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0202-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','铝')" external>铝价格</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0203-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','铅')" external>铅价格</a></li> <li><a href="https://m.mymetal.net/market/p-968-----0204-0--------1.html" onclick="showLog('有色-文章详细页','锌')" external>锌价格</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="h-nav"> <a href="https://m.mymetal.net" rel="nofollow" external>有色金属网</a> > <span>我的有色：再生铜2020年回顾及2021年预测</span> </div> <h2 class="article-title" style="color:#000000">我的有色：再生铜2020年回顾及2021年预测</h2> <p class="infor"> <span class='source'>2021-01-28 17:06</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的有色网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="2613" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p><a href="https://d.eqxiu.com/s/jpQHAGcB?eqrcode=1&share_level=2&from_user=20201029197e753c&from_id=d441c183-e&share_time=1611097755154"><span style="color:#FF0000;">点击查看2021年有色金属产业白皮书</span></a></p> <p>2020年对于全世界来说都实“鼠”不易，新冠疫情蔓延全球，全球经济附枷前行，但<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>却表现强势，整体走出了触底反弹的行情，再生<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>价格与沪铜走势亦步亦趋。</p> <p>图1：2020<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>电解铜</a>与再生铜价格走势图</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2021/01/28/165803.jpg" style="width: 560px; height: 345px;" /></p> <p>数据来源：我的有色网</p> <p>从上图可以看出，2020年铜价是先抑后扬呈现深V走势，2020年2月份受新冠疫情影响，铜价直线回落，到了3-4月份，随着国内疫情的控制，复工复产的稳步推进，加之政府不断推出优惠政策，下游消费需求回暖，为铜价提供一个强有力的支撑作用，铜价不断上涨。到了2020年第四季度，宏观利好消息层出不穷，RCEP协议的正式签订，以及以美联储为首的全球主要央行“全面放水”并推出大规模刺激措施，等等一系列的利好政策都为铜价提供支撑，间接影响再生铜价格的走势，再生铜价格达53000（不含税）的历史高位。</p> <p></p> <p><strong>从精废差方面分析再生铜走势</strong></p> <p>2020年国内主流市场精废差呈“W”型走势，1-3月份受疫情影响，铜价下跌，但由于再生铜供应的紧缺，再生铜货商挺价惜售，导致精废差不断收窄，低至历史低位，出现电解铜代替再生铜的情况；从第二季度开始国内疫情得到控制，铜价逐渐回涨，精废差随之扩大，再生铜消费优势不断显现，到第四季度之后铜价屡创新高，铜价波动较大，多次日均涨幅达千元，致使精废差走势跌宕起伏。但这给期货套利者提供更多的机会，也促进下游利废企业订单量的增加，对再生铜需求量也同比增加。</p> <p>图2:2018年-2020年1#光亮铜精废差变化走势图</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2021/01/28/165950.jpg" style="width: 535px; height: 316px;" /></p> <p>数据来源：我的有色网</p> <p><strong>从供应与产业端分析2020年再生铜价格持续走高的原因</strong></p> <p>2020年再生铜全年供应都处于供小于求的状态，2020年再生铜供应总量300万吨，同比上涨8%，其中进口再生铜总量94.4万吨，同比下降36.89%；虽然2020年再生铜总供应量小幅增加，但据我的有色网统计，2020年下游利废企业新增产能159万吨，主要新增企业类型为低氧杆企业，其中河北3家新增产能27万吨，江西14家新增产能132万吨，累计低氧杆产能在500万吨左右，不完全统计，再生铜也用于<a href='https://m.mymetal.net/article/p-----020109---------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜棒</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020108-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜板带</a>方面，所占比例分别在20%、11%。在供应量存在如此巨大缺口的前提下，致使全年再生铜持货商处于主导地位，挺价惜售现象频出。</p> <p>图3：2017-2020年再生铜进口累计数量</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/youse/2021/01/28/170155.jpg" style="width: 481px; height: 289px;" /></p> <p>数据来源：我的有色网</p> <p><strong>2021年再生铜预测</strong></p> <p>随着新冠疫苗成功研制，疫苗接种普及只是时间问题，2021年定能全面战胜新冠，为全球经济复苏提供强有力保障，同时也为再生铜价格提供支点。但再生铜进口从2020年11月1日的正式落地，相关检验标准、程序已经进入流程化，报关速度已经得到极大提高，2021年中国进口再生铜品质有望进一步提升，进口量有望显著增加，这将给再生铜上涨形成阻力，综合预测2021年再生铜价格将在49000-54000元/吨（不含税）区间震荡运行。精废差也将稍许扩大，预测2021年精废差将在2500以上。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：曾健辉 021-26096773 </br> 资讯监督：王宇 021-26093257 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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