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Yet, amid hopes for a revelation of sorts on Friday, Beijing opted to keep the guessing game going – with fresh vows of more forceful fiscal actions … next year.\nMore than a month after China’s leaders announced “a package of incremental policies” to prevent the country’s economy from further cracking under various pressures, outsiders finally got a chance to peer beyond the veil and catch of glimpse of what the National People’s Congress has been cooking up.\nOn Friday, the standing committee of the country’s top legislature approved an additional 6 trillion yuan (US$838 billion) bond quota to defuse local hidden debts as the government aims to significantly reduce the size of China’s local-level hidden debt – widely seen as a fiscal time bomb – from the outsized 14.3 trillion yuan level at the end of last year to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028.\nNevertheless, interest among ordinary residents in China’s stimulus developments appears much more subdued than it was a month ago – much of the enthusiasm, ignited by an unexpected monetary policy bazooka, waned in the aftermath of three high-profile, but largely less exciting, press conferences featuring top economic officials in early October.\nCompared with Beijing’s earlier piecemeal style of policy announcements, the current round of stimulus did signal a major shift in terms of its scale and proactive use of tools, which economists argued “had been delayed for years”.\nBut it has also become increasingly clear that the country is still reluctant to inject a strong dose to fully turn the tide of its sluggish economy all at once.\n“It is definitely not ‘whatever it takes’, or at least we can’t see that as of now,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered. “The market initially thought it was ‘whatever it takes’, and that’s one of the reasons why it felt disappointed.”\nPolicymakers may not increase stimulus immediately, as they need to know more about the new US trade policy\nLarry Hu, Macquarie Group\nThe victory by Donald Trump in the US presidential election is likely to further add to China’s pain, as an amped-up trade war could affect its current growth engines – exports and manufacturing.\nIf a 60 per cent tariff hike is implemented on all Chinese products, as threatened by Trump, Beijing will have no choice but to escalate its stimulus measures, especially in housing, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group.\n“Policymakers may not increase stimulus immediately, as they need to know more about the new US trade policy,” Hu said.\nCompared with a total deviation from the previous path that prioritised risk prevention and structural reforms over short-term economic growth, Beijing’s actions have appeared more like tactical adjustments to buy time, especially when the current economic cycle remains at a low point both domestically and globally, according to economists.\nWith a long-term strategy of boosting the real economy via advanced technologies intact, Beijing, however, seems to have realised that it needs to act immediately to get the economy back on an upward trajectory before it is too late.\n“The problem is, if the macroeconomic situation is not good and people’s income keeps falling, how do you reform,” a Beijing-based economist asked, speaking on condition of anonymity.\nFor opponents of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in China, structural reform has long been their key reason, but the economist said the two do not contradict each other.\n“For many years, reform has been empty talk. If you look at the progress on reform, there has been basically none, though regression is quite obvious,” the economist said.\n\n\nBut up until now, it seems still unclear whether China is really adopting an expansionary fiscal policy. At an October 12 press conference, Chinese finance minister Lan Foan said: “China’s finances have sufficient resilience. By taking comprehensive measures, we can achieve a balance in revenue and expenditure and meet the annual budget target. Please rest assured.”\nLan’s remarks showed that he might not be aware that the baseline of expansionary policy is fiscal sustainability, not fiscal balance, the anonymous economist said. There is a widespread belief that a country’s national debt is sustainable if the interest rate on its debt is lower than its GDP growth rate.\nA balanced budget that China may be seeking is “unacceptable” in a balance-sheet recession, said Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute. Koo created the notion of a balance-sheet recession to describe circumstances in which high levels of private-sector debt lead to increased saving, which in turn results in an economic slowdown – a situation that China is currently facing.\n“When an economy is in the midst of a balance-sheet recession, the one thing the government must absolutely not do is try to balance the budget,” Koo said in a note last month.\n“That effectively signifies an end to public borrowing, which prevents the government from borrowing and spending the increased savings (and debt repayments) of a private sector seeking to repair its balance sheet.”\nThose surplus savings will then drop out of the income cycle – as money that was saved but not borrowed and spent, opening up a deflationary gap in the economy, Koo added.\nHe said there may be two camps within the Chinese government that have yet to come to an agreement: one that understands the concept of balance-sheet recessions and is arguing for countercyclical fiscal stimulus, and one that is not considering balance-sheet recessions and is making a case for a balanced budget – which is desirable under ordinary circumstances when there are plenty of private-sector borrowers.\nWhen the economy is under great pressure and is likely to decline rapidly in the short term, it is necessary to take stimulus measures\nLiu Shijin\n“The second group, the one arguing for a balanced budget, probably includes people who believe that what China needs now are structural reforms,” Koo said. “But the economy must first recover for reforms to elicit investment.”\n“Structural reforms help to create a better microeconomic climate for businesses, but years must pass before the private sector responds to such policies by borrowing money, starting businesses, and expanding capacity,” he added.\nLiu Shijin, former deputy director of the State Council’s Development Research Centre, who has called for a stimulus package of at least 10 trillion yuan over a year or two, said any stimulus measures come at a cost, but they would buy time and space for long-term reform.\n“When the economy is under great pressure and is likely to decline rapidly in the short term, it is necessary to take stimulus measures,” Liu said at a forum organised by Tsinghua University late last month.\nThe current package could be stimulus plus reform, that is spending money to build new mechanisms and create institutional conditions that support high-quality and sustainable growth in the medium and long term, Liu added.\nHe said a key task falling in the category could be promoting “people-centred” urbanisation that improves cities’ capacities to accommodate rural migrant workers and their families, and offers them equal access to social services along with urban residents.\nThis was already one of the highlights on the to-do list released by the National Development and Reform Commission last month.\n“[Relying on] only stimulus without reform will not solve the problem of insufficient demand that we are facing in the long run. But we are seeing a tendency [in which people are] interested in stimulus but not in reform,” Liu said.\n\n\nNo matter which one is of more interest to the Chinese people, it is clear that the term “stimulus” in this context has Chinese characteristics as it is far from the kind seen in the West, where more proactive and direct measures such as cash handouts to households have been used.\nThe vast majority of the Chinese fiscal stimulus, however, will not add to GDP, as the spending will go to the purchase of existing assets – such as unfinished and unsold housing – or to cover losses, economists said.\n“It’s a big amount … but all of the money is not growth enhancing, although it’s very useful because China needs to clean up,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at Natixis.\n“They have been delaying this for years. But they know that they can’t delay this further,” she said. “The turning point is there, but it’s more sobering than we would have imagined.”\nThus, the measures unveiled so far will not lead to a big increase in the GDP growth rate next year, Garcia-Herrero predicted.\nThe current policies are still focused on addressing local government debt and the real estate sector, with limited response to the issue of low consumer confidence among households, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit.\n“The strategy represents a shift for Beijing – from previously aiming to boost GDP growth in a deleveraging environment to now trying to address debt through higher GDP growth,” Su said.\n“When GDP growth is sluggish, it becomes challenging to lower the leverage ratio,” she added.\nDing from Standard Chartered also said that the effect of government spending on debt swaps and bank recapitalisation is “limited” in terms of boosting economic growth in 2024-25.\n“One trillion [yuan] to deleverage and 1 trillion to support the real economy would have totally different results,” Ding said. “The benefits of deleveraging to the economy would be felt more in the long run.”\nFor now, the dust has yet to settle. And already, eyes are looking to next month, when the annual tone-setting central economic work conference is expected to offer more clues as to what path the world’s second-largest economy will march toward.\n","articleSection":"Policy","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Ji Siqi","sameAs":"https://www.scmp.com/author/ji-siqi"},"dateCreated":"2024-11-08T20:54:29+08:00","dateModified":"2024-11-09T06:40:16+08:00","datePublished":"2024-11-09T06:00:12+08:00","description":"The riddle of China’s stimulus, and what exactly it will entail, has been dutifully dissected, chewed over and speculated on for weeks. Yet, amid hopes for a revelation of sorts on Friday, Beijing opted to keep the guessing game going – with fresh vows of more forceful fiscal actions … next year.","genre":"Economy","hasPart":{"@type":"WebPageElement","cssSelector":".piano-metering__paywall-container","isAccessibleForFree":"False"},"headline":"China’s stimulus strategy, while not ‘whatever it takes’, is seen as long and intact","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","height":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","value":2388},"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/08/cb5288b3-d3ef-4cdc-ab9f-12caa61f8c51_2521d4c4.jpg","width":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","value":3600}},"inLanguage":"en-GB","isAccessibleForFree":"False","locationCreated":{"@type":"Place","name":"Beijing"},"mainEntityOfPage":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3285842/chinas-stimulus-strategy-while-not-whatever-it-takes-seen-long-and-intact","publisher":{"@type":"NewsMediaOrganization","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","height":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","value":512},"url":"https://assets-v2.i-scmp.com/production/icons/scmp-icon-512x512.png","width":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","value":512}},"name":"South China Morning Post"},"publishingPrinciples":"https://www.scmp.com/policies-and-standards"}</script><article class="article-list css-cru7id e1d6iglh0" data-qa="ArticlePage-Article"><div 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data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor">China’s economic stimulus</a></div><div class=" er6t7fe20 css-1xdhyk6 e1047c925" data-qa="ArticleSections-SectionContainer"><a target="_self" class="e1047c923 css-1b6i0hn e1llv60l0" href="/economy?module=breadcrumb&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span>Economy</span><span data-qa="ArticleSections-render-SectionTagsSpacer" class="css-176a798 e1047c920"></span></a><a target="_self" class="e1047c923 css-1b6i0hn e1llv60l0" href="/economy/policy?module=breadcrumb&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span>Policy</span></a></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Headline" class="css-hdf8vf ea45u6l21"><h1 class="er6t7fe5 css-1u8qly9 e298i0d3" data-qa="ContentHeadline-ContainerWithTag"><span data-qa="ContentHeadline-Headline" class="css-0 e298i0d2">China’s stimulus strategy, while not ‘whatever it takes’, is seen as long and intact</span></h1></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-SubHeadline" 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result="BackgroundImageFix"></feFlood><feColorMatrix in="SourceAlpha" type="matrix" values="0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 127 0" result="hardAlpha"></feColorMatrix><feOffset dy="4"></feOffset><feGaussianBlur stdDeviation="2"></feGaussianBlur><feComposite in2="hardAlpha" operator="out"></feComposite><feColorMatrix type="matrix" values="0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0"></feColorMatrix><feBlend mode="normal" in2="BackgroundImageFix" result="effect1_dropShadow_971_51319"></feBlend><feBlend mode="normal" in="SourceGraphic" in2="effect1_dropShadow_971_51319" result="shape"></feBlend></filter></defs></svg></figure></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-ContentContainer" class="css-wvfhp ea45u6l28"><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Author" class="css-plhgzi ea45u6l15"><div data-qa="AuthorNames-AuthorNamesContainer" class=" er6t7fe31 css-1fl3ncg eybiz6w3"><a target="_self" class="e163ld431 css-uvyeg2 e1llv60l0" href="/author/ji-siqi" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor">Ji Siqi</a><span data-qa="AuthorNames-renderLocations-AuthorLocation" class="css-1sn2av9 eybiz6w0">in Beijing</span></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-PublishDateTime" class="css-mbzp8v ea45u6l14"><div class=" er6t7fe27 css-1qbx4v2 efakuk42" data-qa="Article20Date-Container"><time dateTime="2024-11-08T22:00:12.000Z" data-qa="Article20Date-PublishedDate" class="css-0 efakuk41">Published: 6:00am, 9 Nov 2024</time><time dateTime="2024-11-08T22:40:16.000Z" data-qa="Article20Date-UpdatedDate" class="css-m6ip7c efakuk40">Updated: 6:40am, 9 Nov 2024</time></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Correction" class="css-1ou8zht ea45u6l11"></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Content" class="css-1u2o0u6 ea45u6l10"><section class="er6t7fe37 css-19sk4h4 e1pqt1t0" data-qa="ContentBody-ContentBodyContainer"><div class="js-reading-0-percent-completion-tracker css-19icq8a ekyy9du0" data-qa="useTrackViewedPercentageRender-trackViewedPercentageRenders-TrackPercentageBlock"></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">The riddle of China’s stimulus, and what exactly it will entail, has been dutifully dissected, chewed over and speculated on for weeks. Yet, amid hopes for a revelation of sorts on Friday, Beijing opted to keep the guessing game going – with fresh vows of more forceful fiscal actions … next year.</p><div data-qa="InlineAdSlot-Container" class=" css-zl1inp e11v3ui14"><div class="e11v3ui10 e11v3ui13 css-y2bwcc e1flwkbl0" data-qa="AdSlot-Container"><div data-qa="AdSlot-Label" class="css-1t8iakn e1flwkbl3">Advertisement</div><div data-qa="AdSlot-AdSlotContainer" class="css-0 e1flwkbl2"></div></div></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">More than a month after China’s leaders announced “a package of incremental policies” to prevent the country’s economy from further cracking under various pressures, outsiders finally got a chance to peer beyond the veil and catch of glimpse of what the National People’s Congress has been cooking up.</p><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">On Friday, the standing committee of the country’s top legislature approved an additional 6 trillion yuan (US$838 billion) bond quota to defuse local hidden debts as the government aims to significantly reduce the size of China’s local-level hidden debt – widely seen as a fiscal time bomb – from the outsized 14.3 trillion yuan level at the end of last year to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028.</p><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">Nevertheless, interest among ordinary residents in China’s stimulus developments appears much more subdued than it was a month ago – much of the enthusiasm, ignited by an unexpected monetary policy bazooka, waned in the aftermath of three high-profile, but largely less exciting, press conferences featuring top economic officials in early October.</p><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">Compared with Beijing’s earlier piecemeal style of policy announcements, the current round of stimulus did signal a major shift in terms of its scale and proactive use of tools, which economists argued “had been delayed for years”.</p><div data-qa="InlineAdSlot-Container" class=" css-zl1inp e11v3ui14"><div class="e11v3ui10 e11v3ui13 css-gy323d e1flwkbl0" data-qa="AdSlot-Container"><div data-qa="AdSlot-Label" class="css-1t8iakn e1flwkbl3">Advertisement</div><div data-qa="AdSlot-AdSlotContainer" class="css-0 e1flwkbl2"></div></div></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">But it has also become increasingly clear that the country is still reluctant to inject a strong dose to fully turn the tide of its sluggish economy all at once.</p><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">“It is definitely not ‘whatever it takes’, or at least we can’t see that as of now,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered. “The market initially thought it was ‘whatever it takes’, and that’s one of the reasons why it felt disappointed.”</p></section></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-PaywallContainer" class="css-1kfpym9 ea45u6l1"><div class="er6t7fe22 piano-metering__paywall-container css-1e938sv e1x97qwg1" data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-Container"><div data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-LoadingContainer" class="css-hu4lls e1x97qwg2"><div class="css-1px2vm1 e1hb2u5e0" data-qa="Loading-CenteredContainer"><img aria-label="loading" data-qa="BaseImage-handleRenderImage-StyledImage" loading="eager" src="https://assets-v2.i-scmp.com/production/_next/static/media/wheel-on-gray.af4a55f9.gif" class="css-o105sx e445x7d0"/></div></div><div class="article-view__piano-metering css-16o2qwc e1x97qwg0" data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-Wrapper"></div></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-AuthorDetail" class="css-17kn4z6 ea45u6l7"></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-BottomCarousel" class="css-1fuqt2g ea45u6l8"></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-SeriesInline" class="css-153zy9c ea45u6l13"></div><div 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styleMoreOnThisArticles: moreOnThisArticles {\n ...entityLink\n ...magazinesStyleArticleMoreOnThisContentItemContent\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleMoreStoriesArticle on Article {\n moreOnThisArticles {\n entityId\n ...articleMoreStoriesItemArticle\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleMoreStoriesItemArticle on Article {\n ...entityLink\n headline\n socialHeadline\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n url\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articlePaginationCheckerArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment articlePaginationNavigationHistoryArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...hooksTrackCurrentItemBase_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment articlePaywallCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n}\n\nfragment articlePaywallContainerArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment articlePrintArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment articlePrintHeadlineMessageArticle on Article {\n printHeadline\n}\n\nfragment articleReactionArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sections {\n value {\n name\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleReadingTimeContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n readingTime\n}\n\nfragment articleRecommendationArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n entityId\n moreOnThisArticles {\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n entityId\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleRenderArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleActionWidgetArticle\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticleContent\n ...articleAuthorBlockArticle\n ...articleAuthorDetailsContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...articleBeforeYouGoTopicsContent\n ...articleBeforeYouGoWidget\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleCorrectionsWidgetArticle\n ...articleDateContent\n ...articleFurtherReadingWidgetArticle\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...articleLeadingArticle\n ...articleMoreOnThisListArticle\n ...articlePaywallContainerArticle\n ...articlePrintHeadlineMessageArticle\n ...articleReactionArticle\n ...articleReadingTimeContent\n ...articleSectionsContent\n ...articleSeriesArticle\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n ...articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...articleTopicContent\n ...articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle\n ...articleTopicsContent\n ...articleTopicWidgetArticle\n ...articleVocabBoxArticle\n ...authorAvatarsArticle\n ...authorNamesArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentLiveTagContent\n ...contentReadMoreButtonContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n ...contentSubHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...genericArticleContent\n ...postMagazineArticleContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksPostiesArticleArticle_3o8td4\n ...infographicArticleArticle\n ...liveArticleArticle\n ...morningStudioArticleContent\n ...newsletterArticleArticle\n ...pianoIntegrationArticle\n ...plusColumnsArticleContent\n ...plusGenericArticleContent\n ...seriesArticleArticle\n ...styleArticleContent\n ...contentActionBarContent\n}\n\nfragment articleSchemaContent_mN6kk on Query {\n article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n authorLocations\n contentLock\n createdDate\n headline\n publishedDate\n socialHeadline\n sponsorType\n updatedDate\n urlAlias\n authors {\n location\n name\n types\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n text\n }\n corrections {\n correction {\n text\n }\n timestamp\n }\n images {\n isSlideshow\n height\n width\n url\n }\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n ...liveBlogPostingLiveArticles_2w8PNF\n}\n\nfragment articleSectionsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n sections {\n value {\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...hooksArticleSeoArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n entityId\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n summary {\n text\n }\n subHeadline {\n text\n }\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n text\n }\n keywords\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesArticle on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ...inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle\n ...carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesCarouselContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ... on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT\n}\n\nfragment articleShareWidgetArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSponsorContent on Article {\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n description {\n json\n }\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleTitleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle on Article {\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n disableFollow\n entityId\n name\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sponsorType\n firstTopic {\n ...entityLink\n ...followButtonBase\n name\n disableFollow\n contents(first: 4, orderBy: {field: PUBLISHED_DATE, direction: DESC}) {\n edges {\n node {\n __typename\n entityId\n ...articleWidgetContent\n id\n }\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...headerContentBookmarkArticle\n ...headerContentCommentTrigger\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersUseSharingUrl\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle\n ...hooksContentInterestArticle\n ...hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle\n ...hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle\n ...onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n types\n image(filter: {type: AUTHOR_IMAGE}) {\n style(filter: {style: \"300x300\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorBioAuthor on Author {\n bio\n}\n\nfragment authorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...styleAuthorCardAuthor\n ...defaultAuthorCardAuthor\n ...plusAuthorCardAuthor\n}\n\nfragment authorNameAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n name\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment authorNamesArticle on Article {\n authorLocations\n authors {\n entityId\n location\n ...authorNameAuthor\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorRoleAuthor on Author {\n role {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorSocialLinksAuthor on Author {\n socialLinks {\n class\n title\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment beforeYouGoActionWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle on Article {\n entityId\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleSeriesCarouselContent\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentActionBarContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n createdDate\n updatedDate\n publishedDate\n ...articleCommentArticle\n ... on Article {\n hasVideoContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentBodyContent_3o8td4 on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_4isNar on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n landscape250x99: style(filter: {style: \"landscape_250_99\"}) {\n url\n }\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size80x80: style(filter: {style: \"80x80\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverVideoContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n socialHeadline\n ...contentHeadlineTagContent\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...itemLiveArticleContentArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveTagContent on Article {\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n relatedLinks\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentPublishedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment contentReadMoreButtonContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...appButtonContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...blockquoteQuoteContent\n ...imageContent\n ...inlineWidgetContent\n ...photoGalleryWidgetContent\n ...scmpYoutubeContent\n}\n\nfragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n subHeadline {\n json\n }\n summary {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSummaryContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n summary {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentUpdatedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment contextsArticleListContextProviderArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment contextsContentReadMoreContextProviderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n}\n\nfragment copyLinkArticle20CopyLinkContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent\n}\n\nfragment defaultAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorRoleAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n ...followButtonBase\n}\n\nfragment entityFollowButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n entityId\n name\n }\n ... on Author {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n ... on Topic {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n}\n\nfragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n entityId\n entityUuid\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n application {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n parentSection\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...helpersApplicationBase\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n entityId\n factSheets {\n url\n name\n }\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment followButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle\n ...hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle\n ...toolTipArticleSpeechWidgetToolTipArticle\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4 on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n additionalInfoBoxes {\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticle\n }\n ...genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle\n ...blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment globalCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articlePaywallCheckerContent\n}\n\nfragment headerContentBookmarkArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment headerContentCommentTrigger on Article {\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n}\n\nfragment headerMorningStudioArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...subheaderMorningStudioSubheaderContent\n headline\n coverDesktop: image(filter: {type: COVER}) {\n url\n }\n coverMobile: image(filter: {type: COVER_MOBILE}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment headerNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n headline\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersSectionContent\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArchiveWallArticle on Article {\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsVelocityWallArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {\n entityId\n name\n alternativeName\n description {\n text\n }\n summary {\n text\n }\n homepageDescription {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {\n authors {\n types\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n name\n type\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseSharingUrl on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n entityId\n sponsorType\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n topics {\n sponsor {\n entityId\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n generic_og: style(filter: {style: \"og_image_scmp_generic\"}) {\n url\n }\n styles(filter: {styles: [\"og_image_posties_article\", \"og_postmag\", \"og_image_scmp_analysis\", \"og_image_scmp_explainer\", \"og_image_scmp_editorial\", \"og_image_scmp_fact_check\", \"og_image_scmp_debate\", \"og_image_scmp_live\", \"og_image_scmp_obituary\", \"og_image_scmp_opinion\", \"og_image_scmp_review\", \"og_image_scmp_series\", \"og_image_scmp_generic\"]}) {\n url\n style\n }\n type\n }\n disableOffPlatformContent\n published\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n entityId\n description {\n text\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n }\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle\n ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle\n ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle\n flag\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentInterestArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sentiment\n urlAlias\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2niEwz on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_4isNar\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ...contentUpdatedDateContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3wWJWe on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentPublishedDateContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n 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correction {\n text\n }\n timestamp\n }\n images {\n isSlideshow\n height\n width\n url\n }\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n ...liveBlogPostingLiveArticles_2w8PNF\n}\n\nfragment articleSectionsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n sections {\n value {\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...hooksArticleSeoArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n entityId\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n summary {\n text\n }\n subHeadline {\n text\n }\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n text\n }\n keywords\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesArticle on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ...inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle\n ...carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesCarouselContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ... on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT\n}\n\nfragment articleShareWidgetArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSponsorContent on Article {\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n description {\n json\n }\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleTitleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle on Article {\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n disableFollow\n entityId\n name\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sponsorType\n firstTopic {\n ...entityLink\n ...followButtonBase\n name\n disableFollow\n contents(first: 4, orderBy: {field: PUBLISHED_DATE, direction: DESC}) {\n edges {\n node {\n __typename\n entityId\n ...articleWidgetContent\n id\n }\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...headerContentBookmarkArticle\n ...headerContentCommentTrigger\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersUseSharingUrl\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle\n ...hooksContentInterestArticle\n ...hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle\n ...hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle\n ...onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n types\n image(filter: {type: AUTHOR_IMAGE}) {\n style(filter: {style: \"300x300\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorBioAuthor on Author {\n bio\n}\n\nfragment authorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...styleAuthorCardAuthor\n ...defaultAuthorCardAuthor\n ...plusAuthorCardAuthor\n}\n\nfragment authorNameAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n name\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment authorNamesArticle on Article {\n authorLocations\n authors {\n entityId\n location\n ...authorNameAuthor\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorRoleAuthor on Author {\n role {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorSocialLinksAuthor on Author {\n socialLinks {\n class\n title\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment beforeYouGoActionWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle on Article {\n entityId\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleSeriesCarouselContent\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentActionBarContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n createdDate\n updatedDate\n publishedDate\n ...articleCommentArticle\n ... on Article {\n hasVideoContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentBodyContent_3o8td4 on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_4isNar on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n landscape250x99: style(filter: {style: \"landscape_250_99\"}) {\n url\n }\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size80x80: style(filter: {style: \"80x80\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverVideoContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n socialHeadline\n ...contentHeadlineTagContent\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...itemLiveArticleContentArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveTagContent on Article {\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n relatedLinks\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentPublishedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment contentReadMoreButtonContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...appButtonContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...blockquoteQuoteContent\n ...imageContent\n ...inlineWidgetContent\n ...photoGalleryWidgetContent\n ...scmpYoutubeContent\n}\n\nfragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n subHeadline {\n json\n }\n summary {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSummaryContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n summary {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentUpdatedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment contextsArticleListContextProviderArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment contextsContentReadMoreContextProviderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n}\n\nfragment copyLinkArticle20CopyLinkContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent\n}\n\nfragment defaultAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorRoleAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n ...followButtonBase\n}\n\nfragment entityFollowButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n entityId\n name\n }\n ... on Author {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n ... on Topic {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n}\n\nfragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n entityId\n entityUuid\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n application {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n parentSection\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...helpersApplicationBase\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n entityId\n factSheets {\n url\n name\n }\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment followButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle\n ...hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle\n ...toolTipArticleSpeechWidgetToolTipArticle\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4 on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n additionalInfoBoxes {\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticle\n }\n ...genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle\n ...blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment globalCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articlePaywallCheckerContent\n}\n\nfragment headerContentBookmarkArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment headerContentCommentTrigger on Article {\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n}\n\nfragment headerMorningStudioArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...subheaderMorningStudioSubheaderContent\n headline\n coverDesktop: image(filter: {type: COVER}) {\n url\n }\n coverMobile: image(filter: {type: COVER_MOBILE}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment headerNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n headline\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersSectionContent\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArchiveWallArticle on Article {\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsVelocityWallArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {\n entityId\n name\n alternativeName\n description {\n text\n }\n summary {\n text\n }\n homepageDescription {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {\n authors {\n types\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n name\n type\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseSharingUrl on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n entityId\n sponsorType\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n topics {\n sponsor {\n entityId\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n generic_og: style(filter: {style: \"og_image_scmp_generic\"}) {\n url\n }\n styles(filter: {styles: [\"og_image_posties_article\", \"og_postmag\", \"og_image_scmp_analysis\", \"og_image_scmp_explainer\", \"og_image_scmp_editorial\", \"og_image_scmp_fact_check\", \"og_image_scmp_debate\", \"og_image_scmp_live\", \"og_image_scmp_obituary\", \"og_image_scmp_opinion\", \"og_image_scmp_review\", \"og_image_scmp_series\", \"og_image_scmp_generic\"]}) {\n url\n style\n }\n type\n }\n disableOffPlatformContent\n published\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n entityId\n description {\n text\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n }\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle\n ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle\n ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle\n flag\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentInterestArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sentiment\n urlAlias\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2niEwz on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_4isNar\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ...contentUpdatedDateContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3wWJWe on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentPublishedDateContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n ...videoDurationOverlayVideo\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksPostiesArticleArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksSeriesArticleSectionTagArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackCurrentItemBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ...atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4\n ...atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {\n entityId\n publishedDate\n headline\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n copyrighted\n entityUuid\n socialHeadline\n sponsor\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle on Article {\n entityId\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationsSection on Section {\n ...notificationSection\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment imageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent\n}\n\nfragment infographicArticleArticle on Article {\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...landingBannerInfographicArticle\n}\n\nfragment inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment issuesDropdownNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment issuesNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n }\n ...issuesDropdownNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment itemLiveArticleContentArticle on Article {\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment landingBannerInfographicArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n headline\n topics {\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n title\n url\n }\n coverHero: image(filter: {type: HERO}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment liveArticleArticle on Article 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She graduated from Columbia Journalism School and the University of Hong Kong.\r\n\r\n","socialLinks":[{"class":"email","title":"","url":"mailto:siqi.ji@scmp.com"},{"class":"twitter","title":"","url":"https://twitter.com/siqi_ji"}],"role":{"text":"Senior Reporter, Political Economy\n"},"areaOfExpertise":["China economy"]}],"headline":"China’s stimulus strategy, while not ‘whatever it takes’, is seen as long and intact","socialHeadline":"Not ‘whatever it takes’: China’s stimulus strategy seen as long and 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reluctance to use strong measures to rapidly turn tide of sluggish economy keeps markets, consumers and analysts waiting in wonder.\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Beijing’s reluctance to use strong measures to rapidly turn tide of sluggish economy keeps markets, consumers and analysts waiting in wonder."}]}]},"subHeadline":{"text":"Beijing’s reluctance to use strong measures to rapidly turn tide of sluggish economy keeps markets, consumers and analysts waiting in wonder\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Beijing’s reluctance to use strong measures to rapidly turn tide of sluggish economy keeps markets, consumers and analysts waiting in wonder"}]}]},"body":{"text":"The riddle of China’s stimulus, and what exactly it will entail, has been dutifully dissected, chewed over and speculated on for weeks. Yet, amid hopes for a revelation of sorts on Friday, Beijing opted to keep the guessing game going – with fresh vows of more forceful fiscal actions … next year.\nMore than a month after China’s leaders announced “a package of incremental policies” to prevent the country’s economy from further cracking under various pressures, outsiders finally got a chance to peer beyond the veil and catch of glimpse of what the National People’s Congress has been cooking up.\nOn Friday, the standing committee of the country’s top legislature approved an additional 6 trillion yuan (US$838 billion) bond quota to defuse local hidden debts as the government aims to significantly reduce the size of China’s local-level hidden debt – widely seen as a fiscal time bomb – from the outsized 14.3 trillion yuan level at the end of last year to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028.\nNevertheless, interest among ordinary residents in China’s stimulus developments appears much more subdued than it was a month ago – much of the enthusiasm, ignited by an unexpected monetary policy bazooka, waned in the aftermath of three high-profile, but largely less exciting, press conferences featuring top economic officials in early October.\nCompared with Beijing’s earlier piecemeal style of policy announcements, the current round of stimulus did signal a major shift in terms of its scale and proactive use of tools, which economists argued “had been delayed for years”.\nBut it has also become increasingly clear that the country is still reluctant to inject a strong dose to fully turn the tide of its sluggish economy all at once.\n“It is definitely not ‘whatever it takes’, or at least we can’t see that as of now,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered. “The market initially thought it was ‘whatever it takes’, and that’s one of the reasons why it felt disappointed.”\nPolicymakers may not increase stimulus immediately, as they need to know more about the new US trade policy\nLarry Hu, Macquarie Group\nThe victory by Donald Trump in the US presidential election is likely to further add to China’s pain, as an amped-up trade war could affect its current growth engines – exports and manufacturing.\nIf a 60 per cent tariff hike is implemented on all Chinese products, as threatened by Trump, Beijing will have no choice but to escalate its stimulus measures, especially in housing, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group.\n“Policymakers may not increase stimulus immediately, as they need to know more about the new US trade policy,” Hu said.\nCompared with a total deviation from the previous path that prioritised risk prevention and structural reforms over short-term economic growth, Beijing’s actions have appeared more like tactical adjustments to buy time, especially when the current economic cycle remains at a low point both domestically and globally, according to economists.\nWith a long-term strategy of boosting the real economy via advanced technologies intact, Beijing, however, seems to have realised that it needs to act immediately to get the economy back on an upward trajectory before it is too late.\n“The problem is, if the macroeconomic situation is not good and people’s income keeps falling, how do you reform,” a Beijing-based economist asked, speaking on condition of anonymity.\nFor opponents of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in China, structural reform has long been their key reason, but the economist said the two do not contradict each other.\n“For many years, reform has been empty talk. If you look at the progress on reform, there has been basically none, though regression is quite obvious,” the economist said.\n\n\nBut up until now, it seems still unclear whether China is really adopting an expansionary fiscal policy. At an October 12 press conference, Chinese finance minister Lan Foan said: “China’s finances have sufficient resilience. By taking comprehensive measures, we can achieve a balance in revenue and expenditure and meet the annual budget target. Please rest assured.”\nLan’s remarks showed that he might not be aware that the baseline of expansionary policy is fiscal sustainability, not fiscal balance, the anonymous economist said. There is a widespread belief that a country’s national debt is sustainable if the interest rate on its debt is lower than its GDP growth rate.\nA balanced budget that China may be seeking is “unacceptable” in a balance-sheet recession, said Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute. Koo created the notion of a balance-sheet recession to describe circumstances in which high levels of private-sector debt lead to increased saving, which in turn results in an economic slowdown – a situation that China is currently facing.\n“When an economy is in the midst of a balance-sheet recession, the one thing the government must absolutely not do is try to balance the budget,” Koo said in a note last month.\n“That effectively signifies an end to public borrowing, which prevents the government from borrowing and spending the increased savings (and debt repayments) of a private sector seeking to repair its balance sheet.”\nThose surplus savings will then drop out of the income cycle – as money that was saved but not borrowed and spent, opening up a deflationary gap in the economy, Koo added.\nHe said there may be two camps within the Chinese government that have yet to come to an agreement: one that understands the concept of balance-sheet recessions and is arguing for countercyclical fiscal stimulus, and one that is not considering balance-sheet recessions and is making a case for a balanced budget – which is desirable under ordinary circumstances when there are plenty of private-sector borrowers.\nWhen the economy is under great pressure and is likely to decline rapidly in the short term, it is necessary to take stimulus measures\nLiu Shijin\n“The second group, the one arguing for a balanced budget, probably includes people who believe that what China needs now are structural reforms,” Koo said. “But the economy must first recover for reforms to elicit investment.”\n“Structural reforms help to create a better microeconomic climate for businesses, but years must pass before the private sector responds to such policies by borrowing money, starting businesses, and expanding capacity,” he added.\nLiu Shijin, former deputy director of the State Council’s Development Research Centre, who has called for a stimulus package of at least 10 trillion yuan over a year or two, said any stimulus measures come at a cost, but they would buy time and space for long-term reform.\n“When the economy is under great pressure and is likely to decline rapidly in the short term, it is necessary to take stimulus measures,” Liu said at a forum organised by Tsinghua University late last month.\nThe current package could be stimulus plus reform, that is spending money to build new mechanisms and create institutional conditions that support high-quality and sustainable growth in the medium and long term, Liu added.\nHe said a key task falling in the category could be promoting “people-centred” urbanisation that improves cities’ capacities to accommodate rural migrant workers and their families, and offers them equal access to social services along with urban residents.\nThis was already one of the highlights on the to-do list released by the National Development and Reform Commission last month.\n“[Relying on] only stimulus without reform will not solve the problem of insufficient demand that we are facing in the long run. But we are seeing a tendency [in which people are] interested in stimulus but not in reform,” Liu said.\n\n\nNo matter which one is of more interest to the Chinese people, it is clear that the term “stimulus” in this context has Chinese characteristics as it is far from the kind seen in the West, where more proactive and direct measures such as cash handouts to households have been used.\nThe vast majority of the Chinese fiscal stimulus, however, will not add to GDP, as the spending will go to the purchase of existing assets – such as unfinished and unsold housing – or to cover losses, economists said.\n“It’s a big amount … but all of the money is not growth enhancing, although it’s very useful because China needs to clean up,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at Natixis.\n“They have been delaying this for years. But they know that they can’t delay this further,” she said. “The turning point is there, but it’s more sobering than we would have imagined.”\nThus, the measures unveiled so far will not lead to a big increase in the GDP growth rate next year, Garcia-Herrero predicted.\nThe current policies are still focused on addressing local government debt and the real estate sector, with limited response to the issue of low consumer confidence among households, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit.\n“The strategy represents a shift for Beijing – from previously aiming to boost GDP growth in a deleveraging environment to now trying to address debt through higher GDP growth,” Su said.\n“When GDP growth is sluggish, it becomes challenging to lower the leverage ratio,” she added.\nDing from Standard Chartered also said that the effect of government spending on debt swaps and bank recapitalisation is “limited” in terms of boosting economic growth in 2024-25.\n“One trillion [yuan] to deleverage and 1 trillion to support the real economy would have totally different results,” Ding said. “The benefits of deleveraging to the economy would be felt more in the long run.”\nFor now, the dust has yet to settle. And already, eyes are looking to next month, when the annual tone-setting central economic work conference is expected to offer more clues as to what path the world’s second-largest economy will march toward.\n","json":[{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The riddle of China’s stimulus, and what exactly it will entail, has been dutifully dissected, chewed over and speculated on for weeks. Yet, amid hopes for a revelation of sorts on Friday, Beijing opted to keep the guessing game going – with fresh vows of more forceful fiscal actions … next year."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"More than a month after China’s leaders announced “a package of incremental policies” to prevent the country’s economy from further cracking under various pressures, outsiders finally got a chance to peer beyond the veil and catch of glimpse of what the National People’s Congress has been cooking up."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"On Friday, the standing committee of the country’s top legislature approved an additional 6 trillion yuan (US$838 billion) bond quota to defuse local hidden debts as the government aims to significantly reduce the size of China’s local-level hidden debt – widely seen as a fiscal time bomb – from the outsized 14.3 trillion yuan level at the end of last year to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"1"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Nevertheless, interest among ordinary residents in China’s stimulus developments appears much more subdued than it was a month ago – much of the enthusiasm, ignited by an unexpected monetary policy bazooka, waned in the aftermath of three high-profile, but largely less exciting, press conferences featuring top economic officials in early October."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Compared with Beijing’s earlier piecemeal style of policy announcements, the current round of stimulus did signal a major shift in terms of its scale and proactive use of tools, which economists argued “had been delayed for years”."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"2"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"But it has also become increasingly clear that the country is still reluctant to inject a strong dose to fully turn the tide of its sluggish economy all at once."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“It is definitely not ‘whatever it takes’, or at least we can’t see that as of now,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered. “The market initially thought it was ‘whatever it takes’, and that’s one of the reasons why it felt disappointed.”"}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"Policymakers may not increase stimulus immediately, as they need to know more about the new US trade policy"},{"type":"text","data":"Larry Hu, Macquarie Group"}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"20"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The victory by Donald Trump in the US presidential election is likely to further add to China’s pain, as an amped-up trade war could affect its current growth engines – exports and manufacturing."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If a 60 per cent tariff hike is implemented on all Chinese products, as threatened by Trump, Beijing will have no choice but to escalate its stimulus measures, especially in housing, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“Policymakers may not increase stimulus immediately, as they need to know more about the new US trade policy,” Hu said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Compared with a total deviation from the previous path that prioritised risk prevention and structural reforms over short-term economic growth, Beijing’s actions have appeared more like tactical adjustments to buy time, especially when the current economic cycle remains at a low point both domestically and globally, according to economists."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"4"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"With a long-term strategy of boosting the real economy via advanced technologies intact, Beijing, however, seems to have realised that it needs to act immediately to get the economy back on an upward trajectory before it is too late."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The problem is, if the macroeconomic situation is not good and people’s income keeps falling, how do you reform,” a Beijing-based economist asked, speaking on condition of anonymity."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"For opponents of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in China, structural reform has long been their key reason, but the economist said the two do not contradict each other."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"5"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“For many years, reform has been empty talk. If you look at the progress on reform, there has been basically none, though regression is quite obvious,” the economist said."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/0sTfNOXfhes?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"China sees slowest economic growth in over a year with 4.6% GDP in third quarter ","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/18/clean.jpg?itok=DxXvwJH2","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/18/clean.jpg?itok=cc0zwSoZ","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/18/clean.jpg","data-duration":"02:15","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3282891","data-youtube-id":"0sTfNOXfhes"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"But up until now, it seems still unclear whether China is really adopting an expansionary fiscal policy. At an October 12 press conference, Chinese finance minister Lan Foan said: “China’s finances have sufficient resilience. By taking comprehensive measures, we can achieve a balance in revenue and expenditure and meet the annual budget target. Please rest assured.”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6","infiniteAdsAfterNumber":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Lan’s remarks showed that he might not be aware that the baseline of expansionary policy is fiscal sustainability, not fiscal balance, the anonymous economist said. There is a widespread belief that a country’s national debt is sustainable if the interest rate on its debt is lower than its GDP growth rate."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"A balanced budget that China may be seeking is “unacceptable” in a balance-sheet recession, said Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute. Koo created "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3263104/what-must-china-do-avoid-japan-type-recession-economist-richard-koo-adds-why-chinese-situation-far","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"54e3020c-14a0-4067-9051-61f8a42cbdd4","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"the notion of a balance-sheet recession"}]},{"type":"text","data":" to describe circumstances in which high levels of private-sector debt lead to increased saving, which in turn results in an economic slowdown – a situation that China is currently facing."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“When an economy is in the midst of a balance-sheet recession, the one thing the government must absolutely not do is try to balance the budget,” Koo said in a note last month."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“That effectively signifies an end to public borrowing, which prevents the government from borrowing and spending the increased savings (and debt repayments) of a private sector seeking to repair its balance sheet.”"}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"50"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Those surplus savings will then drop out of the income cycle – as money that was saved but not borrowed and spent, opening up a deflationary gap in the economy, Koo added."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"He said there may be two camps within the Chinese government that have yet to come to an agreement: one that understands the concept of balance-sheet recessions and is arguing for countercyclical fiscal stimulus, and one that is not considering balance-sheet recessions and is making a case for a balanced budget – which is desirable under ordinary circumstances when there are plenty of private-sector borrowers."}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"When the economy is under great pressure and is likely to decline rapidly in the short term, it is necessary to take stimulus measures"},{"type":"text","data":"Liu Shijin"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The second group, the one arguing for a balanced budget, probably includes people who believe that what China needs now are structural reforms,” Koo said. “But the economy must first recover for reforms to elicit investment.”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“Structural reforms help to create a better microeconomic climate for businesses, but years must pass before the private sector responds to such policies by borrowing money, starting businesses, and expanding capacity,” he added."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the State Council’s Development Research Centre, who has called for a stimulus package of at least 10 trillion yuan over a year or two, said any stimulus measures come at a cost, but they would buy time and space for long-term reform."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“When the economy is under great pressure and is likely to decline rapidly in the short term, it is necessary to take stimulus measures,” Liu said at a forum organised by Tsinghua University late last month."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The current package could be stimulus plus reform, that is spending money to build new mechanisms and create institutional conditions that support high-quality and sustainable growth in the medium and long term, Liu added."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"He said a key task falling in the category could be promoting “people-centred” urbanisation that improves cities’ capacities to accommodate rural migrant workers and their families, and offers them equal access to social services along with urban residents."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This was already one of the highlights on the to-do list released by the National Development and Reform Commission last month."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“[Relying on] only stimulus without reform will not solve the problem of insufficient demand that we are facing in the long run. But we are seeing a tendency [in which people are] interested in stimulus but not in reform,” Liu said."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/0hhJTR0KhJ4?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"Rally cry by Xi sets economic priorities for Chinese officials, absolves them of mistakes","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg?itok=_aOrEyyb","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg?itok=wUqbLRvp","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg","data-duration":"03:49","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3280693","data-youtube-id":"0hhJTR0KhJ4"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"No matter which one is of more interest to the Chinese people, it is clear that the term “stimulus” in this context has Chinese characteristics as it is far from the kind seen in the West, where more proactive and direct measures such as cash handouts to households have been used."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The vast majority of the Chinese fiscal stimulus, however, will not add to GDP, as the spending will go to the purchase of existing assets – such as unfinished and unsold housing – or to cover losses, economists said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“It’s a big amount … but all of the money is not growth enhancing, although it’s very useful because China needs to clean up,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at Natixis."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“They have been delaying this for years. But they know that they can’t delay this further,” she said. “The turning point is there, but it’s more sobering than we would have imagined.”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Thus, the measures unveiled so far will not lead to a big increase in the GDP growth rate next year, Garcia-Herrero predicted."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The current policies are still focused on addressing local government debt and the real estate sector, with limited response to the issue of low consumer confidence among households, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The strategy represents a shift for Beijing – from previously aiming to boost GDP growth in a deleveraging environment to now trying to address debt through higher GDP growth,” Su said."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"90"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“When GDP growth is sluggish, it becomes challenging to lower the leverage ratio,” she added."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Ding from Standard Chartered also said that the effect of government spending on debt swaps and bank recapitalisation is “limited” in terms of boosting economic growth in 2024-25."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“One trillion [yuan] to deleverage and 1 trillion to support the real economy would have totally different results,” Ding said. “The benefits of deleveraging to the economy would be felt more in the long run.”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"For now, the dust has yet to settle. 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Wang","url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/08/cb5288b3-d3ef-4cdc-ab9f-12caa61f8c51_2521d4c4.jpg","isSlideshow":true,"sizeLandscape250x99":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_250_99/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/08/cb5288b3-d3ef-4cdc-ab9f-12caa61f8c51_2521d4c4.jpg?itok=T4610JL3\u0026v=1731070470"},"size1280x720":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/08/cb5288b3-d3ef-4cdc-ab9f-12caa61f8c51_2521d4c4.jpg?itok=mP0LJkmx\u0026v=1731070470"},"size1200x800":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/08/cb5288b3-d3ef-4cdc-ab9f-12caa61f8c51_2521d4c4.jpg?itok=uTd4U3cj\u0026v=1731070470"},"size1020x680":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1020x680/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/08/cb5288b3-d3ef-4cdc-ab9f-12caa61f8c51_2521d4c4.jpg?itok=vL8-S7im\u0026v=1731070470"},"size768x768":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/08/cb5288b3-d3ef-4cdc-ab9f-12caa61f8c51_2521d4c4.jpg?itok=X5FzaaIA\u0026v=1731070470"},"landscape250x99":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_250_99/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/08/cb5288b3-d3ef-4cdc-ab9f-12caa61f8c51_2521d4c4.jpg?itok=T4610JL3\u0026v=1731070470"},"size540x360":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/540x360/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/08/cb5288b3-d3ef-4cdc-ab9f-12caa61f8c51_2521d4c4.jpg?itok=K-5NaoiY\u0026v=1731070470"},"height":2388,"width":3600}],"disableOffPlatformContent":[],"published":true,"sponsorType":null,"publishedDate":1731103212000,"updatedDate":1731105616000,"summary":{"text":"Beijing’s reluctance to use strong measures to rapidly turn tide of sluggish economy keeps markets, consumers and analysts waiting in wonder.\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Beijing’s reluctance to use strong measures to rapidly turn tide of sluggish economy keeps markets, consumers and analysts waiting in wonder."}]}]},"subHeadline":{"text":"Beijing’s reluctance to use strong measures to rapidly turn tide of sluggish economy keeps markets, consumers and analysts waiting in wonder\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Beijing’s reluctance to use strong measures to rapidly turn tide of sluggish economy keeps markets, consumers and analysts waiting in wonder"}]}]},"body":{"text":"The riddle of China’s stimulus, and what exactly it will entail, has been dutifully dissected, chewed over and speculated on for weeks. Yet, amid hopes for a revelation of sorts on Friday, Beijing opted to keep the guessing game going – with fresh vows of more forceful fiscal actions … next year.\nMore than a month after China’s leaders announced “a package of incremental policies” to prevent the country’s economy from further cracking under various pressures, outsiders finally got a chance to peer beyond the veil and catch of glimpse of what the National People’s Congress has been cooking up.\nOn Friday, the standing committee of the country’s top legislature approved an additional 6 trillion yuan (US$838 billion) bond quota to defuse local hidden debts as the government aims to significantly reduce the size of China’s local-level hidden debt – widely seen as a fiscal time bomb – from the outsized 14.3 trillion yuan level at the end of last year to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028.\nNevertheless, interest among ordinary residents in China’s stimulus developments appears much more subdued than it was a month ago – much of the enthusiasm, ignited by an unexpected monetary policy bazooka, waned in the aftermath of three high-profile, but largely less exciting, press conferences featuring top economic officials in early October.\nCompared with Beijing’s earlier piecemeal style of policy announcements, the current round of stimulus did signal a major shift in terms of its scale and proactive use of tools, which economists argued “had been delayed for years”.\nBut it has also become increasingly clear that the country is still reluctant to inject a strong dose to fully turn the tide of its sluggish economy all at once.\n“It is definitely not ‘whatever it takes’, or at least we can’t see that as of now,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered. “The market initially thought it was ‘whatever it takes’, and that’s one of the reasons why it felt disappointed.”\nPolicymakers may not increase stimulus immediately, as they need to know more about the new US trade policy\nLarry Hu, Macquarie Group\nThe victory by Donald Trump in the US presidential election is likely to further add to China’s pain, as an amped-up trade war could affect its current growth engines – exports and manufacturing.\nIf a 60 per cent tariff hike is implemented on all Chinese products, as threatened by Trump, Beijing will have no choice but to escalate its stimulus measures, especially in housing, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group.\n“Policymakers may not increase stimulus immediately, as they need to know more about the new US trade policy,” Hu said.\nCompared with a total deviation from the previous path that prioritised risk prevention and structural reforms over short-term economic growth, Beijing’s actions have appeared more like tactical adjustments to buy time, especially when the current economic cycle remains at a low point both domestically and globally, according to economists.\nWith a long-term strategy of boosting the real economy via advanced technologies intact, Beijing, however, seems to have realised that it needs to act immediately to get the economy back on an upward trajectory before it is too late.\n“The problem is, if the macroeconomic situation is not good and people’s income keeps falling, how do you reform,” a Beijing-based economist asked, speaking on condition of anonymity.\nFor opponents of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in China, structural reform has long been their key reason, but the economist said the two do not contradict each other.\n“For many years, reform has been empty talk. If you look at the progress on reform, there has been basically none, though regression is quite obvious,” the economist said.\n\n\nBut up until now, it seems still unclear whether China is really adopting an expansionary fiscal policy. At an October 12 press conference, Chinese finance minister Lan Foan said: “China’s finances have sufficient resilience. By taking comprehensive measures, we can achieve a balance in revenue and expenditure and meet the annual budget target. Please rest assured.”\nLan’s remarks showed that he might not be aware that the baseline of expansionary policy is fiscal sustainability, not fiscal balance, the anonymous economist said. There is a widespread belief that a country’s national debt is sustainable if the interest rate on its debt is lower than its GDP growth rate.\nA balanced budget that China may be seeking is “unacceptable” in a balance-sheet recession, said Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute. Koo created the notion of a balance-sheet recession to describe circumstances in which high levels of private-sector debt lead to increased saving, which in turn results in an economic slowdown – a situation that China is currently facing.\n“When an economy is in the midst of a balance-sheet recession, the one thing the government must absolutely not do is try to balance the budget,” Koo said in a note last month.\n“That effectively signifies an end to public borrowing, which prevents the government from borrowing and spending the increased savings (and debt repayments) of a private sector seeking to repair its balance sheet.”\nThose surplus savings will then drop out of the income cycle – as money that was saved but not borrowed and spent, opening up a deflationary gap in the economy, Koo added.\nHe said there may be two camps within the Chinese government that have yet to come to an agreement: one that understands the concept of balance-sheet recessions and is arguing for countercyclical fiscal stimulus, and one that is not considering balance-sheet recessions and is making a case for a balanced budget – which is desirable under ordinary circumstances when there are plenty of private-sector borrowers.\nWhen the economy is under great pressure and is likely to decline rapidly in the short term, it is necessary to take stimulus measures\nLiu Shijin\n“The second group, the one arguing for a balanced budget, probably includes people who believe that what China needs now are structural reforms,” Koo said. “But the economy must first recover for reforms to elicit investment.”\n“Structural reforms help to create a better microeconomic climate for businesses, but years must pass before the private sector responds to such policies by borrowing money, starting businesses, and expanding capacity,” he added.\nLiu Shijin, former deputy director of the State Council’s Development Research Centre, who has called for a stimulus package of at least 10 trillion yuan over a year or two, said any stimulus measures come at a cost, but they would buy time and space for long-term reform.\n“When the economy is under great pressure and is likely to decline rapidly in the short term, it is necessary to take stimulus measures,” Liu said at a forum organised by Tsinghua University late last month.\nThe current package could be stimulus plus reform, that is spending money to build new mechanisms and create institutional conditions that support high-quality and sustainable growth in the medium and long term, Liu added.\nHe said a key task falling in the category could be promoting “people-centred” urbanisation that improves cities’ capacities to accommodate rural migrant workers and their families, and offers them equal access to social services along with urban residents.\nThis was already one of the highlights on the to-do list released by the National Development and Reform Commission last month.\n“[Relying on] only stimulus without reform will not solve the problem of insufficient demand that we are facing in the long run. But we are seeing a tendency [in which people are] interested in stimulus but not in reform,” Liu said.\n\n\nNo matter which one is of more interest to the Chinese people, it is clear that the term “stimulus” in this context has Chinese characteristics as it is far from the kind seen in the West, where more proactive and direct measures such as cash handouts to households have been used.\nThe vast majority of the Chinese fiscal stimulus, however, will not add to GDP, as the spending will go to the purchase of existing assets – such as unfinished and unsold housing – or to cover losses, economists said.\n“It’s a big amount … but all of the money is not growth enhancing, although it’s very useful because China needs to clean up,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at Natixis.\n“They have been delaying this for years. But they know that they can’t delay this further,” she said. “The turning point is there, but it’s more sobering than we would have imagined.”\nThus, the measures unveiled so far will not lead to a big increase in the GDP growth rate next year, Garcia-Herrero predicted.\nThe current policies are still focused on addressing local government debt and the real estate sector, with limited response to the issue of low consumer confidence among households, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit.\n“The strategy represents a shift for Beijing – from previously aiming to boost GDP growth in a deleveraging environment to now trying to address debt through higher GDP growth,” Su said.\n“When GDP growth is sluggish, it becomes challenging to lower the leverage ratio,” she added.\nDing from Standard Chartered also said that the effect of government spending on debt swaps and bank recapitalisation is “limited” in terms of boosting economic growth in 2024-25.\n“One trillion [yuan] to deleverage and 1 trillion to support the real economy would have totally different results,” Ding said. “The benefits of deleveraging to the economy would be felt more in the long run.”\nFor now, the dust has yet to settle. And already, eyes are looking to next month, when the annual tone-setting central economic work conference is expected to offer more clues as to what path the world’s second-largest economy will march toward.\n","json":[{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The riddle of China’s stimulus, and what exactly it will entail, has been dutifully dissected, chewed over and speculated on for weeks. Yet, amid hopes for a revelation of sorts on Friday, Beijing opted to keep the guessing game going – with fresh vows of more forceful fiscal actions … next year."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"More than a month after China’s leaders announced “a package of incremental policies” to prevent the country’s economy from further cracking under various pressures, outsiders finally got a chance to peer beyond the veil and catch of glimpse of what the National People’s Congress has been cooking up."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"On Friday, the standing committee of the country’s top legislature approved an additional 6 trillion yuan (US$838 billion) bond quota to defuse local hidden debts as the government aims to significantly reduce the size of China’s local-level hidden debt – widely seen as a fiscal time bomb – from the outsized 14.3 trillion yuan level at the end of last year to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"1"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Nevertheless, interest among ordinary residents in China’s stimulus developments appears much more subdued than it was a month ago – much of the enthusiasm, ignited by an unexpected monetary policy bazooka, waned in the aftermath of three high-profile, but largely less exciting, press conferences featuring top economic officials in early October."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Compared with Beijing’s earlier piecemeal style of policy announcements, the current round of stimulus did signal a major shift in terms of its scale and proactive use of tools, which economists argued “had been delayed for years”."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"2"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"But it has also become increasingly clear that the country is still reluctant to inject a strong dose to fully turn the tide of its sluggish economy all at once."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“It is definitely not ‘whatever it takes’, or at least we can’t see that as of now,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered. “The market initially thought it was ‘whatever it takes’, and that’s one of the reasons why it felt disappointed.”"}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"Policymakers may not increase stimulus immediately, as they need to know more about the new US trade policy"},{"type":"text","data":"Larry Hu, Macquarie Group"}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"20"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The victory by Donald Trump in the US presidential election is likely to further add to China’s pain, as an amped-up trade war could affect its current growth engines – exports and manufacturing."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If a 60 per cent tariff hike is implemented on all Chinese products, as threatened by Trump, Beijing will have no choice but to escalate its stimulus measures, especially in housing, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“Policymakers may not increase stimulus immediately, as they need to know more about the new US trade policy,” Hu said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Compared with a total deviation from the previous path that prioritised risk prevention and structural reforms over short-term economic growth, Beijing’s actions have appeared more like tactical adjustments to buy time, especially when the current economic cycle remains at a low point both domestically and globally, according to economists."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"4"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"With a long-term strategy of boosting the real economy via advanced technologies intact, Beijing, however, seems to have realised that it needs to act immediately to get the economy back on an upward trajectory before it is too late."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The problem is, if the macroeconomic situation is not good and people’s income keeps falling, how do you reform,” a Beijing-based economist asked, speaking on condition of anonymity."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"For opponents of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in China, structural reform has long been their key reason, but the economist said the two do not contradict each other."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"5"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“For many years, reform has been empty talk. If you look at the progress on reform, there has been basically none, though regression is quite obvious,” the economist said."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/0sTfNOXfhes?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"China sees slowest economic growth in over a year with 4.6% GDP in third quarter ","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/18/clean.jpg?itok=DxXvwJH2","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/18/clean.jpg?itok=cc0zwSoZ","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/18/clean.jpg","data-duration":"02:15","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3282891","data-youtube-id":"0sTfNOXfhes"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"But up until now, it seems still unclear whether China is really adopting an expansionary fiscal policy. At an October 12 press conference, Chinese finance minister Lan Foan said: “China’s finances have sufficient resilience. By taking comprehensive measures, we can achieve a balance in revenue and expenditure and meet the annual budget target. Please rest assured.”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6","infiniteAdsAfterNumber":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Lan’s remarks showed that he might not be aware that the baseline of expansionary policy is fiscal sustainability, not fiscal balance, the anonymous economist said. There is a widespread belief that a country’s national debt is sustainable if the interest rate on its debt is lower than its GDP growth rate."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"A balanced budget that China may be seeking is “unacceptable” in a balance-sheet recession, said Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute. Koo created "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3263104/what-must-china-do-avoid-japan-type-recession-economist-richard-koo-adds-why-chinese-situation-far","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"54e3020c-14a0-4067-9051-61f8a42cbdd4","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"the notion of a balance-sheet recession"}]},{"type":"text","data":" to describe circumstances in which high levels of private-sector debt lead to increased saving, which in turn results in an economic slowdown – a situation that China is currently facing."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“When an economy is in the midst of a balance-sheet recession, the one thing the government must absolutely not do is try to balance the budget,” Koo said in a note last month."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“That effectively signifies an end to public borrowing, which prevents the government from borrowing and spending the increased savings (and debt repayments) of a private sector seeking to repair its balance sheet.”"}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"50"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Those surplus savings will then drop out of the income cycle – as money that was saved but not borrowed and spent, opening up a deflationary gap in the economy, Koo added."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"He said there may be two camps within the Chinese government that have yet to come to an agreement: one that understands the concept of balance-sheet recessions and is arguing for countercyclical fiscal stimulus, and one that is not considering balance-sheet recessions and is making a case for a balanced budget – which is desirable under ordinary circumstances when there are plenty of private-sector borrowers."}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"When the economy is under great pressure and is likely to decline rapidly in the short term, it is necessary to take stimulus measures"},{"type":"text","data":"Liu Shijin"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The second group, the one arguing for a balanced budget, probably includes people who believe that what China needs now are structural reforms,” Koo said. “But the economy must first recover for reforms to elicit investment.”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“Structural reforms help to create a better microeconomic climate for businesses, but years must pass before the private sector responds to such policies by borrowing money, starting businesses, and expanding capacity,” he added."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the State Council’s Development Research Centre, who has called for a stimulus package of at least 10 trillion yuan over a year or two, said any stimulus measures come at a cost, but they would buy time and space for long-term reform."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“When the economy is under great pressure and is likely to decline rapidly in the short term, it is necessary to take stimulus measures,” Liu said at a forum organised by Tsinghua University late last month."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The current package could be stimulus plus reform, that is spending money to build new mechanisms and create institutional conditions that support high-quality and sustainable growth in the medium and long term, Liu added."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"He said a key task falling in the category could be promoting “people-centred” urbanisation that improves cities’ capacities to accommodate rural migrant workers and their families, and offers them equal access to social services along with urban residents."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This was already one of the highlights on the to-do list released by the National Development and Reform Commission last month."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“[Relying on] only stimulus without reform will not solve the problem of insufficient demand that we are facing in the long run. But we are seeing a tendency [in which people are] interested in stimulus but not in reform,” Liu said."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/0hhJTR0KhJ4?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"Rally cry by Xi sets economic priorities for Chinese officials, absolves them of mistakes","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg?itok=_aOrEyyb","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg?itok=wUqbLRvp","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/10/01/Thu_Clean_3.jpg","data-duration":"03:49","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3280693","data-youtube-id":"0hhJTR0KhJ4"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"No matter which one is of more interest to the Chinese people, it is clear that the term “stimulus” in this context has Chinese characteristics as it is far from the kind seen in the West, where more proactive and direct measures such as cash handouts to households have been used."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The vast majority of the Chinese fiscal stimulus, however, will not add to GDP, as the spending will go to the purchase of existing assets – such as unfinished and unsold housing – or to cover losses, economists said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“It’s a big amount … but all of the money is not growth enhancing, although it’s very useful because China needs to clean up,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at Natixis."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“They have been delaying this for years. But they know that they can’t delay this further,” she said. “The turning point is there, but it’s more sobering than we would have imagined.”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Thus, the measures unveiled so far will not lead to a big increase in the GDP growth rate next year, Garcia-Herrero predicted."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The current policies are still focused on addressing local government debt and the real estate sector, with limited response to the issue of low consumer confidence among households, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The strategy represents a shift for Beijing – from previously aiming to boost GDP growth in a deleveraging environment to now trying to address debt through higher GDP growth,” Su said."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"90"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“When GDP growth is sluggish, it becomes challenging to lower the leverage ratio,” she added."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Ding from Standard Chartered also said that the effect of government spending on debt swaps and bank recapitalisation is “limited” in terms of boosting economic growth in 2024-25."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“One trillion [yuan] to deleverage and 1 trillion to support the real economy would have totally different results,” Ding said. “The benefits of deleveraging to the economy would be felt more in the long run.”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"For now, the dust has yet to settle. 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