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百年建筑直播间：疫情下砂石供需增量或将后移-百年建筑网
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article-text_1"> <div data-val="6560" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p><img alt="" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/04/01/092512.jpg" style="margin: 0px auto; display: block; width: 600px; height: 133px;" /></p> <p>本期百年建筑直播间有幸邀请到了百年建筑<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1006-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>砂石</a>首席分析师、砂石资讯总监陈自灵，就疫情下全国砂石供需格局现状及展望进行了探讨：</p> <p>近期全国多地疫情复发，砂石矿山企业、砂石加工厂、港口码头受到疫情影响，全国砂石供应有所收窄；下游工地春节过后复工节奏较慢，叠加疫情影响，全国砂石需求同比收缩；原油价格上涨、环保管控加强，砂石成本居高不下，但是一季度全国砂石综合均价不及去年，疫情下砂石供需增量或将后移。</p> <p><img alt="" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/04/01/093909.png" style="margin: 0px auto; display: block; width: 600px; height: 337px;" /></p> <p><strong>一、砂石行业政策及行业热点盘点</strong></p> <p align="justify">近期全国各地陆续推进采砂管理，严控砂石开采；其中以河砂禁采为首，实行禁采期、禁采区等管理；同时充分鼓励使用精品机制砂，砂石行业政策的陆续推出，预示着砂石行业不断向高标准、高质量发展。</p> <p><strong>二、全国砂石供应端逐渐收窄</strong></p> <p><strong><img alt="" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/04/01/100618.png" style="margin: 0px auto; display: block; width: 400px; height: 283px;" /><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2022/04/01/100646.png" style="margin: 0px auto; display: block; width: 400px; height: 287px;" /></strong></p> <p align="justify">据百年建筑网调研，167家大型砂石矿山企业和砂石加工厂的产线情况来看，砂石厂生产线共有310条，其中开机223条，总的产线开机率达到58.82%，环比下降19.03%；产能利用率为37.45%，环比下降8.34%；砂石总出货量约为940.3万吨，较上周减少79.2万吨，环比下降7.77%。主要受到天气、疫情、需求一般等因素影响，开机率、产能利用率和出货量都有所减少。<a href="https://www.100njz.com/22/0331/19/3ADAAA15C6381265.html"><span style="color:#0000CD;"><strong>详情》</strong></span></a></p> <p><strong>三、全国<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1006-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>砂石价格</a>及沿江、沿海港口运费走势分析</strong></p> <p align="justify">截至3月25日，全国综合砂石价格114.3 元/吨，与上周持平，同比上涨3.63%；全国天然砂均价139元/吨，与上周持平，机制砂均价105元/吨，与上周持平；碎石均价99元/吨，与上周持平。</p> <p align="justify">上周港口缓慢累库，煤价比较滞涨下跌，周初部分电厂招标需求释放，货主报价抬升，市场煤价有再度上涨迹象，周三，终端采购节奏放缓，对高价抵触情绪较大，大型煤企增加了长协兑现，后半周大秦线检修又有推迟，市场反弹势头被压制，主流价格小幅下跌。</p> <p><strong>四、全国砂石需求虽有收缩仍有存量</strong></p> <p align="justify">本周<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1002-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>混凝土</a>平均产能利用率为11.1%，周环比上升0.33个百分点。<a href="https://www.100njz.com/22/0331/09/9F0E2A4F1C1C682D.html"><strong><span style="color:#0000CD;">详情》</span></strong></a>全国各地受公共卫生事件及降雨多方因素影响，混凝土产能利用率回升后劲不足，砂石需求有所收缩。但是2022年1-2月宏观数据显示，全国基建投资同比增长8.1%，多地重大项目集中开工释放砂石需求；房地产开发投资增长3.7%，好于市场预期；1-2月施工面积同比增长1.8%，低于去年全年的5.2%，但仍然是唯一实现正增长的指标。总体而言，虽然短期内全国砂石需求虽有收缩，但是仍有存量。</p> <p><strong>五、短期砂石供需及价格预测</strong></p> <p align="justify"><strong>长三角地区：</strong>目前外围砂石厂家及港口库存高位，出货量减半；需求端收到疫情防控影响，叠加环保监督，当地施工进度暂停暂缓，预计短期内长三角市场搅拌站及房建类项目砂石需求持续见底，基建用砂石需求或将回升，砂石行情或将震荡运行。</p> <p align="justify"><strong>珠三角地区：</strong>目前大湾区重点项目已悉数开工，但是整体工程节奏较慢，深圳、珠海等地虽然疫情防控已经逐渐解除，但下游需求整体还是呈现缓慢恢复阶段。供应端，目前广东清远、肇庆等本地的砂石料以供本地市场为主，近期外发珠三角的砂石料销量有所减少；广西料受到西江限流的影响，供应量也略有收窄。整体来看，珠三角市场目前砂石供需一般，价格稳中偏弱运行。出于成本（原油、码头管理费等）上涨的影响，近期市场“涨声四起”，但实际落实不佳，预计短期内珠三角市场砂石价格稳中偏强运行。</p> <p align="justify"><strong>京津冀地区：</strong>由于冬奥会，残奥会的召开，加上现在环保管控严格，河北目前秦皇岛、唐山、廊坊等地都有疫情，道路管控严格，搅拌站和施工单位停工，砂石矿山厂出货量一般，以本地需求为主，供需双弱，预计4月中旬需求会慢慢起来。预计后面短期内砂石价格不会有大的上涨空间</p> <p align="justify"><strong>环渤海地区：</strong>疫情呈多点散发和规模聚集并存，对当地包括砂石在内的大宗商品市场有较大冲击。目前大连港，葫芦岛港，营口鲅鱼圈港，京唐港等大型港口均受到不同程度的影响，对砂石运输方面有较大影响。同样受到疫情影响，当地砂石企业大多处于半停滞状态，整体出库量弱势下行。因生产和运输方面的限制导致上游砂石、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1001-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>水泥</a>等原材料供应收窄，下游搅拌站及施工单位部分项目已经停工。在这样供需双弱的背景下，环渤海地区部分砂石企业无法报价，部分港口虽有报价但是成交量较少，呈有价无市的状态，短期内环渤海砂石行情或将稳中偏弱运行。</p> <p align="justify"><strong>川渝地区：</strong>多地环保管控，乐山等地砂石供应紧缺，但由于运输成本增加，砂石交易活跃度不高；重庆：本地需求持续偏弱，外发砂石量弱势运行，砂石供应稳定，船运资源依旧紧缺，叠加下游城市疫情影响，整体需求呈现偏弱运行态势。预计川渝两地砂石价格短时间内将保持稳定运行。</p> 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