“해리스만 믿었는데”…미국 국채 베팅했던 서학개미 곡소리

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style="display:box;border-left:solid 4px rgb(228, 228, 228);padding-left: 20px; padding-right: 20px;">트럼프 재집권에 국채 가격 뚝<br>서학개미 사모은 ETF 직격탄<br>하루만에 8% 떨어지며 눈물<br>엔화연계형ETF는 환손실까지</div><br><br><span class="end_photo_org"><div class="nbd_im_w _LAZY_LOADING_WRAP "> <div class="nbd_a _LAZY_LOADING_ERROR_HIDE" id="img_a1"> <img id="img1" data-src="https://imgnews.pstatic.net/image/009/2024/11/07/0005393012_001_20241107204308292.jpg?type=w860" class="_LAZY_LOADING _LAZY_LOADING_INIT_HIDE" alt="" style="display: none;" /> </div> </div></span>도널드 트럼프 전 대통령이 제 47대 대통령 선거에서 승리했다는 소식이 전해지면서 미국 국채 시장이 요동쳤다.<br><br>지난 2016년 대선 당시 트럼프 후보가 민주당 힐러리 클린턴 후보를 접전 끝에 승리하면서 국채 가격이 급락했던 것과 단기적으로 비슷한 흐름이다.<br><br>7일(현지시간) 일본 도쿄증시에서는 미국 장기채에 투자하는 엔화 헷지형 상장지수펀드(ETF)인 ‘블랙록 아이셰어스 만기 20년 이상 미국 국채 ETF’ 가 지난 6일 이후 2거래일 간 2% 넘게 하락했다. 미국 대선 개표가 진행되면서 트럼프 대선 승리 가능성이 높아지자 투자자들이 미국 국채 매도세로 돌아선 결과다.<br><br>이날 한국 예탁결제원 집계를 기준으로 보면 해당 ETF 는 일본 증시에서 국내 투자자들이 가장 많이 보관 중인 종목이다. 이달 5일까지 집계된 해당 종목 보관 금액은 총 7억5839만 달러(약 1조586억원)으로 1조원을 넘어섰다.<br><br>국채는 가격과 수익률이 반대로 움직인다. 국채 가격이 하락하면 이를 추종하는 ETF 시세도 떨어진다. 트럼프 당선 소식을 전후해 달러 대비 엔화 가치가 급락한 탓에 한국 투자자 입장에서는 해당 ETF 시세 하락에 따른 손실 뿐 아니라 환손실까지 감안해야 하는 상황이다.<br><br>앞서 6일 뉴욕증시에서는 한국 투자자들이 선호하는 ’디렉시온 데일리 만기 20년 이상 미국 장기 국채 3배 레버리지‘ ETF(TMF)가 이날 하루 만에 8% 급락했다. 해당 ETF 는 지난달 7일 이후 한달 간 해외 증시 전체를 통틀어 국내 투자자들이 두 번째로 많이 순매수한 종목으로 순매수 금액은 1억2527만 달러다.<br><br>이처럼 미국 장기 국채 ETF 시세가 급락한 것은 뉴욕 채권 시장에서 조정 작업이 일어나기 때문이라는 월가 분석이 따른다.<br><br>JP모건 측은 “고객 거래 데이터 상으로 이달 4~8일 만기가 돌아오는 미국 국채 순매수 포지션이 지난 8월 12일 주간 이후 가장 많았다”면서 “이는 거래자들이 민주당 대선 주자인 카멀라 해리스 부통령 승리에 베팅한 결과”라고 풀이했다. 그러나 트럼프가 당선되면서 단기 조정이 불가피한 상황이다.<br><br>실제로 6일 미국 재무부에 따르면 뉴욕 채권시장에서 시중금리 가이드 라인 역할을 하는 2년 만기 국채 수익률은 전날보다 8bp(=0.08%포인트) 급등한 4.27% 에 거래를 마쳤다.<br><br>지난 7월 31일(4.29%) 이후 처음으로 4.2% 를 넘어선 수준이다. 당시는 미국 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)이 시장 희망과 다르게 기준금리를 동결하고 고금리 상태가 이어질 수 있음을 경고한 탓에 국채 가격이 급락했던 때다.<br><br>이밖에 주택담보대출과 자동차대출, 기업대출 등 ’시중 장기금리 가이드라인‘ 역할을 하는 10년 만기 국채 수익률은 16bp 상승한 4.42%, 만기가 가장 긴 30년 만기 국채 수익률도 16bp 오른 4.60% 급등했다.<br><br>시장에서는 제2의 ‘트럼프 발작’(Trump tantrum)을 우려하고 있다.<br><br>앞서 지난 2016년 뉴욕증시는 ’트럼프 발작‘을 겪은 바 있다. 당시 트럼프 후보가 예상을 깨고 대통령 당선을 확정한 2016년 11월 8일을 전후해 대선 전 연 1.85% 이던 10년 만기 미국 국채 수익률이 한 달 여 만인 같은 해 12월 중순 연 2.61% 를 기록하는 등 한달 여 만에 76bp 뛰었다.<br><br>당시 트럼프 후보가 강조한 1조 달러 규모 인프라스트럭처 투자 등 대규모 재정 지출 공약이 국채 발행 증가로 이어져 국채 가격을 끌어내릴 것(국채 수익률 상승)이라는 시장 예상이 작용한 결과였다.<br><br>2년물과 10년물 국채 수익률은 트럼프와 해리스의 첫 TV 대선 토론회가 열린 지난 9월 10일 이후 이달 6일까지 각각 68bp, 77bp 뛰었고 30년물 수익률은 같은 기간 73bp상승했다.<br><br>미국 국채 투매 심리를 자극하는 배경은 크게 두 가지다. 하나는 트럼프가 공약대로 대규모 법인세 감세에 나서면 부족한 세수를 메꾸기 위해 국채 발행이 늘거나 미국 재정적자가 심해질 것이라는 투자자들의 불안감이다. .<br><br>이밖에 트럼프가 공약대로 미국 우선주의를 핵심 가치로 내세우면서 수입품에 추가 관세를 부과하면 수입 물가가 상승하면서 인플레이션이 다시 반등할 수 있고 이로 인해 연준이 기준 금리 인하 속도를 늦출 수도 있다는 우려도 따른다.<br><br>실제로 이날 시카고상품거래소(CME) 페드워치 집계를 보면 미국판 기준금리인 연방기금금리 선물 시장 투자자들은 내년 6월 연방기금금리가 연 3.50~3.75% 일 확률을 15.6%로 책정해 전날(22.1%)대비 크게 낮췄다. 연준이 기존 시장 예상만큼 금리를 내리긴 어려울 것이라는 예상에서다.<br><br>다만 최근 시장 발작은 과도하다는 평가도 나온다. SPI자산운용의 스티븐 아이네스 파트너는 “채권 수익률이 뛰고는 있지만 실제 트럼프 재정 부양책은 의회의 공화당 내 재정 매파가 저항할 가능성이 크며 이런 경우 트럼프 공약대로만 되기는 힘들 것”이라고 내다봤다.<br><br> </article> </div> <div class="byline"> <p class="byline_p"> <span class="byline_s">김인오 기자(mery@mk.co.kr)</span> </p> </div> <div class="newsct_journalist"> <div class="newsct_journalist_inner"> <h4 class="blind">기자 프로필</h4> <div class="media_journalistcard _JOURNALIST_CARD _MORE_WRAP"> <div id="JOURNALIST_CARD_LIST" class="media_journalistcard_inner"> <div class="media_journalistcard_item _SUBSCRIBE_ELE" data-subscribe-type="JOURNALIST" data-current-subscribe="true"> <div class="media_journalistcard_item_inner"> <div class="media_journalistcard_intro"> <div class="media_journalistcard_summary"> <span class="media_journalistcard_summary_press _LAZY_LOADING_WRAP" data-show-type="block"> <img data-src="https://mimgnews.pstatic.net/image/upload/office_logo/009/2018/10/05/logo_009_6_20181005175405.png" height="24" alt="매일경제" title="" 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{{/journalist}} </script> <div id="_MODAL_LAYER_FOR_NOTIFICATION" class="modal is_hidden"></div> <div id="_MODAL_LAYER_FOR_NOTIFICATION_ALL" class="modal is_hidden"></div> <div id="_MODAL_LAYER_FOR_NOTIFICATION_OS" class="modal is_hidden"></div> <script type="x-tmpl-mustache" class="_MODAL_LAYER_TEMPLATE_FOR_NOTIFICATION"> <div class="m_dimmed"></div> <div class="m_notification is_single"> <strong class="mn_ok">구독완료</strong> {{#officeInfos}} <div class="mn_text"> <h4 class="mn_h">{{officeName}} 뉴스를 <br> <span class="m_em">알림</span>으로 받아 보시겠습니까?</h4> <p class="mn_p">언론사의 주요 콘텐츠를 <br> 네이버에서 빠르게 확인할 수 있습니다.</p> </div> {{/officeInfos}} <div class="mn_btns"> <button type="button" class="mn_btn _MODAL_LAYER_NEGATIVE" data-clk="{{nclk}}no">닫기</button> <button type="button" class="mn_btn as_em _MODAL_LAYER_POSITIVE" data-clk="{{nclk}}yes">알림받기</button> </div> </div> </script> <script type="x-tmpl-mustache" class="_MODAL_LAYER_TEMPLATE_FOR_NOTIFICATION_ALL"> <div class="m_dimmed"></div> <div class="m_notification"> <strong class="mn_ok">구독완료</strong> <div class="mn_text"> <h4 class="mn_h">언론사의 주요 뉴스를 <br> <span class="m_em">알림</span>으로 받아 보시겠습니까?</h4> <ul class="mn_list"> {{#officeInfos}} <li class="mn_item"> <div class="mn_head"> <div class="mn_img"> <img src="{{logo}}" alt="" onerror="this.outerHTML='<span class="no_image"></span>'"> </div> <div class="mn_name">{{officeName}}</div> </div> <div class="mn_body"> <button type="button" class="mn_noti _ALL_OFFICES_NOTIFICATION_ITEM" data-oid="{{officeId}}" data-clk-add="notchnon" data-clk-remove="notchnoff">알림받기 사용함</button> </div> </li> {{/officeInfos}} </ul> </div> <div class="mn_btns"> <button type="button" class="mn_btn _MODAL_LAYER_NEGATIVE" data-clk="{{nclk}}no">닫기</button> <button type="button" class="mn_btn as_em _MODAL_LAYER_POSITIVE _CHANNEL_BANNER_ITEM_NOTICE_COMPLETE" data-clk="{{nclk}}yes">완료</button> </div> </div> </script> <script type="x-tmpl-mustache" class="_MODAL_LAYER_TEMPLATE_FOR_NOTIFICATION_OS"> <div class="m_dimmed"></div> <div class="napp_notify_notice"> <div class="napp_notify_info_area"> <strong class="napp_notify_title">네이버 앱 푸시알림이 꺼져있어요.</strong> <div class="napp_notify_desc_box"> <p class="napp_notify_desc1">네이버 앱 알림켜기 > 알림탭 > 알림허용</p> <p class="napp_notify_desc2">버튼을 눌러 앱 알림 설정을 켜주세요.</p> </div> </div> <div class="napp_notify_button_area"> <button type="button" class="napp_notify_btn _MODAL_LAYER_NEGATIVE" data-clk="{{nclk}}.osnotoff">닫기</button> <button type="button" class="napp_notify_btn highlight _MODAL_LAYER_POSITIVE _NAPP_NOTIFY_COMPLETE" data-clk="{{nclk}}.osnoton">네이버 앱 알림 켜기</button> </div> </div> </div> </script> <div id="_MODAL_DIALOG_WRAP" style="display: none;"></div> <script type="x-tmpl-mustache" class="_MODAL_DIALOG_TEMPLATE"> <div class="nds_dialog_dimmed"> <div class="nds_dialog_basic"> <div class="nds_dialog_content"> {{#isTextType}} <p class="nds_dialog_text">{{content.title}}</p> {{/isTextType}} {{#isTitleType}} <strong class="nds_dialog_title"> <span class="nds_dialog_title_ellipsis">{{content.headTitle}}</span> {{content.title}} </strong> <p class="nds_dialog_description">{{content.description}}</p> {{/isTitleType}} </div> <div class="nds_dialog_button_area"> <div class="nds_button_main_action as_layout_5_5"> {{#isCancel}} <button type="button" class="nds_button_wide _MODAL_CANCEL"{{#content.clk.cancelClk}} data-clk="{{content.clk.cancelClk}}"{{/content.clk.cancelClk}}> {{content.cancelMessage}} </button> {{/isCancel}} <button type="button" class="nds_button_wide as_primary _MODAL_CONFIRM"{{#content.clk.confirmClk}} data-clk="{{content.clk.confirmClk}}"{{/content.clk.confirmClk}}> {{content.confirmMessage}} </button> </div> </div> </div> </div> </script> <div id="_MODAL_TOAST" style="display: none;"></div> <script type="x-tmpl-mustache" class="_MODAL_TOAST_TEMPLATE"> <div class="nds_popover_toast as_center"> <div class="nds_toast_text_area"> <div class="nds_toast_text_area"><span class="nds_toast_ellipsis_text"><strong>{{toastTitle}}</strong></span> {{toastMessage}}</div> </div> </div> </script> <div id="_TICKER_LAYER_FOR_NOTIFICATION" class="ticker" style="display: none;"></div> <script type="x-tmpl-mustache" class="_TICKER_LAYER_TEMPLATE_FOR_NOTIFICATION"> {{#officeInfos}} <p class="t_inner"><em class="t_point">{{officeName}}</em> 언론사 알림이 설정되었습니다.</p> {{/officeInfos}} </script> <script src="https://static-nnews.pstatic.net/js/min/20250206/library.min.js" crossorigin="anonymous" onerror="neloSender.sendErrorToNelo('스크립트 로딩 에러 : ' + this.src);"></script> <script src="https://static-nnews.pstatic.net/js/min/20250206/read.min.js" crossorigin="anonymous" onerror="neloSender.sendErrorToNelo('스크립트 로딩 에러 : ' + this.src);"></script> <script> window.ntm = window.ntm || []; var ntmOption = {}; if (ntmOption) { var section = {"id":"101","name":"경제"}; var redirectSection = {"id":"101","name":"경제"}; ntmOption["channelId"] = article.officeId; // 기타 또는 주요 섹션 이름 var nilSendSectionName = "기타"; var nilSendSectionId = ""; if (/100|101|102|103|104|105|106|107/.test(section.id)) { nilSendSectionName = section.name; nilSendSectionId = section.id; } // 기사 타입 var htArticleTypeName = { "0": "text", "1": "photo", "2": "tv" }; var articleTypeName = htArticleTypeName[article.type] || ""; ntmOption["hitType"] = "cv"; ntmOption["eventCategory"] = "post_view"; ntmOption["uri"] = "http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?oid=009&aid=0005393012"; ntmOption["gdid"] = article.gdid; ntmOption["dimension1"] = encodeURIComponent(nilSendSectionName); ntmOption["dimension4"] = articleTypeName; ntmOption["optional2"] = nilSendSectionId; var journalistIdList = []; // 기자 목록 $("._JOURNALIST_CARD ._JOURNALIST_ID").each(function (index, object) { var $this = $(object); var journalistId = $this.attr("data-journalistId"); if (journalistId && journalistIdList.indexOf(journalistId) === -1) { journalistIdList.push(journalistId); } }); if (journalistIdList.length > 0) { ntmOption["dimension3"] = journalistIdList.join("___"); } if (location.href.match(/ntype=RANKING/)) { ntmOption["dimension5"] = "y"; } if (service.sports || service.newsType) { ntmOption["dimension2"] = article.sectionInfo.secondSection + "." + article.sectionInfo.thirdSection; } var seriesComponentId = $("._VALID_SERIES").attr("data-component-id"); ntmOption["dimension6"] = seriesComponentId; var issueComponentId = $("._ISSUE_ARTICLE_INFO").attr("data-component-id"); ntmOption["dimension8"] = issueComponentId; if (/[?|&]type=breakingnews(&|$)/.test(location.href) === true) { if (/(m\.naver\.com)|(media\.naver\.com)|(news\.naver\.com\/?$)|(www\.naver\.com)/.test(document.referrer) === true) { ntmOption["dimension7"] = "breaking"; } } var ntmLeaveOption = $.extend({}, ntmOption); ntmLeaveOption["hitType"] = "event"; ntmLeaveOption["eventCategory"] = "action"; ntmLeaveOption["eventAction"] = "leave"; if (/\/article\/comment\//.test(location.href) == false && $("#contents").length > 0) { if (window.addEventListener) { window.addEventListener("load", function () { ntm.push({ event: "nilSend", ni: ntmOption }); }, false); window.addEventListener("onpagehide" in window ? 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"pageshow" : "load"; $(window).on(eventType, function() { window.ntm = window.ntm || []; var pageviewInfo = { event: "nLogPageViewService", nlogEvt: { page_layout: window.layoutName } }; pageviewInfo.nLogPageviewSti = "news"; pageviewInfo.nLogPageviewGdid = "880000BC_000000000000000005393012"; window.ntm.push(pageviewInfo); // ma 로그 전송 var data = { "service": "news", "baseInfo": { "category": (/\/article\/comment\//.test(location.href) == true) ? "댓글" : "본문" }, "extraInfo": { "articleId": article.articleId, "sectionId": article.sectionId, "officeId": article.officeId, "articleType": article.type } }; if (typeof ma !== "undefined") { ma.init({ api: "https://ma.news.naver.com/l", data: data, contentBodyEl: document.querySelector("._article_content"), contentBodyVideoWrapperSelector: "._VIDEO_AREA" }); } if (window.matchMedia("(prefers-color-scheme)").media === "not all") { $("html").removeClass("DARK_THEME"); } setTimeout(function() { $("._OPACITY_FADE_TO").fadeTo(50, 1); }, 3000); }); </script> </body> </html>

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