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Behind the Numbers: The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment » Blog Archive » Are You an Optimist or a Pessimist in Ethiopia?

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href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=11" title="Posts by Charlie Teller">Charlie Teller</a> (6)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=19" title="Posts by Charlotte Feldman-Jacobs">Charlotte Feldman-Jacobs</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=14" title="Posts by Deborah Mesce">Deborah Mesce</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=10" title="Posts by Eric Zuehlke">Eric Zuehlke</a> (4)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=20" title="Posts by Farzaneh Roudi">Farzaneh Roudi</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=13" title="Posts by Jason Bremner">Jason Bremner</a> (7)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=16" title="Posts by Jay Gribble">Jay Gribble</a> (5)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=18" title="Posts by Karin Ringheim">Karin Ringheim</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=17" title="Posts by Marissa Yeakey">Marissa Yeakey</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=12" title="Posts by Mark Mather">Mark Mather</a> (6)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=22" title="Posts by Mary Kent">Mary Kent</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=21" title="Posts by Nadwa Mossaad">Nadwa Mossaad</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?author=15" title="Posts by Victoria Ebin">Victoria Ebin</a> (2)</li></ul> </li> </ul> <ul> <li id="categories-1" class="widget widget_categories"><h2 class="widgettitle">Topics</h2> <ul> <li class="cat-item cat-item-1"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=1" title="blog on the PRB topic: Aging">Aging</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-3"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=3" title="Blog on the PRB topic- Education">Education</a> (2) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-4"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=4" title="Blog on the PRB topic of Environment">Environment</a> (10) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-5"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=5" title="Blog on the PRB topic of Gender">Gender</a> (3) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-6"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=6" title="Blog on the PRB topic of HIV/AIDS">HIV/AIDS</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-7"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=7" title="Blog on the PRB Topic of Immigration/Migration">Immigration/Migration</a> (2) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-8"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=8" title="Blog on the topic of Income/Poverty">Income/Poverty</a> (8) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-9"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=9" title="Blog on the topic of Marriage Family">Marriage/Family</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-10"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="Blog about the topic of Population basics">Population Basics</a> (15) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-31"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=31" title="View all posts filed under PRB News">PRB News</a> (23) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-12"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=12" title="Blog on the topic of reproductive health ">Reproductive Health</a> (16) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-13"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=13" title="Blog on the topic of Youth">Youth</a> (6) </li> </ul> </li> <li id="tag_cloud" class="widget widget_tag_cloud"><h2 class="widgettitle">Tags</h2> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=burkina-faso" class="tag-link-61" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Burkina&nbsp;Faso</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=census" class="tag-link-39" title="7 topics" style="font-size: 14.461538461538pt;">census</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=cities" class="tag-link-68" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">cities</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=climate-change" class="tag-link-69" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.0769230769231pt;">climate&nbsp;change</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=contraception" class="tag-link-53" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">contraception</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=education" class="tag-link-3" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Education</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=engage" class="tag-link-55" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">ENGAGE</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=environment" class="tag-link-4" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Environment</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=ethiopia" class="tag-link-41" title="4 topics" style="font-size: 11.230769230769pt;">Ethiopia</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=europe" class="tag-link-46" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Europe</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=evaluation" class="tag-link-48" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.0769230769231pt;">evaluation</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=family-planning" class="tag-link-27" title="14 topics" style="font-size: 22pt;">family&nbsp;planning</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=fertility" class="tag-link-45" title="3 topics" style="font-size: 10.153846153846pt;">fertility</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=food" class="tag-link-32" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.0769230769231pt;">food</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=health" class="tag-link-73" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">health</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=health-insurance" class="tag-link-72" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">health&nbsp;insurance</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=hivaids" class="tag-link-6" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">HIV/AIDS</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=india" class="tag-link-58" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.0769230769231pt;">India</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=iran" class="tag-link-65" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Iran</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=journalism" class="tag-link-42" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.0769230769231pt;">journalism</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=kenya" class="tag-link-54" title="7 topics" style="font-size: 14.461538461538pt;">Kenya</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=mali" class="tag-link-62" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Mali</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=malnutrition" class="tag-link-33" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.0769230769231pt;">malnutrition</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=media" class="tag-link-59" title="7 topics" style="font-size: 14.461538461538pt;">media</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=migrants" class="tag-link-36" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">migrants</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=nano" class="tag-link-63" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Nano</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=pakistan" class="tag-link-52" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Pakistan</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=photos" class="tag-link-51" title="3 topics" style="font-size: 10.153846153846pt;">photos</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=policy" class="tag-link-30" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">policy</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=population-growth" class="tag-link-38" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">population&nbsp;growth</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=poverty" class="tag-link-29" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.0769230769231pt;">poverty</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=prb-in-the-field" class="tag-link-50" title="11 topics" style="font-size: 18.769230769231pt;">PRB&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;field</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=recession" class="tag-link-67" title="5 topics" style="font-size: 12.307692307692pt;">recession</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=rwanda" class="tag-link-56" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.0769230769231pt;">Rwanda</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=senegal" class="tag-link-60" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Senegal</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=statistics" class="tag-link-44" title="4 topics" style="font-size: 11.230769230769pt;">statistics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=tanzania" class="tag-link-49" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">tanzania</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=transportation" class="tag-link-64" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">transportation</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=turkey" class="tag-link-57" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Turkey</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=us" class="tag-link-40" title="10 topics" style="font-size: 17.692307692308pt;">U.S.</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=unemployment" class="tag-link-66" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Unemployment</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=urbanization" class="tag-link-70" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">urbanization</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=video" class="tag-link-37" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.0769230769231pt;">video</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=water" class="tag-link-71" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">water</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?tag=women" class="tag-link-43" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">women</a></li> <li id="recent-posts" 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Syndication">RSS</abbr></a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?feed=comments-rss2" title="The latest comments to all posts in RSS">Comments <abbr title="Really Simple Syndication">RSS</abbr></a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://wordpress.org/" title="Powered by WordPress, state-of-the-art semantic personal publishing platform.">WordPress.org</a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="middle"> <div class="post" id="post-66"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?p=66" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link: Are You an Optimist or a Pessimist in Ethiopia?">Are You an Optimist or a Pessimist in Ethiopia?</a></h2> <p class="postmetadata"><small>June 29th, 2009 Charlie Teller </small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=3" title="View all posts in Education" rel="category">Education</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=4" title="View all posts in Environment" rel="category">Environment</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?cat=8" title="View all posts in Income/Poverty" rel="category">Income/Poverty</a> | </p> <div> <p align="left"><em>by Charlie Teller, Bixby visiting scholar</em> </p> <p>Teaching an entire semester’s graduate course in three weeks at the end of the academic year seemed a dubious task under normal conditions. But teaching it at the end of Ethiopia’s long dry season with shortages of electricity and water, not to mention scarcity of recent publications and slow internet speed in the mountainous capital city of Addis Ababa, made it even more challenging.</p> <p>I had taught at the Flagship University of Addis Ababa’s Institute of Population Studies for four years in the mid-to-late 1990s, and served as external thesis examiner off and on since then, but now the government really needed more Ph.D demographers as it greatly increased its student intake in higher education, even pushing to start a Ph.D program on top of an already overstretched masters degree program.</p> <p>In one of the poorest countries in the world, with 13 million food insecure, the second largest population in Africa (nearly 80 million), and an annual population growth rate around 2.6 percent, we discussed theories of population and development and debated models of the demographic transition. In a secret ballot early on in the course, I was not surprised to find out most of the 22 mature graduate students were Malthusian pessimists or even alarmists.</p> <p>The job of a good professor is to challenge his students into reconsidering their cynicism and, in this constrained setting, provide rays of hope that things might get better. In the past few years, my Ethiopian colleagues and I had published evidence that the country was unexpectedly progressing better along the demographic transition than most of its neighbors, and that it was surprisingly on track to meet many of the 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), especially in education and health.</p> <p>In just a few weeks, in spite of the lack of computers, electricity, and inability to download publications from the internet, the students were able to work in  teams of two to three to read recent literature and access demographic and development data through sharing CDs, photocopies, and handouts. They closely assessed the quality of differing estimates of progress since 1990 on the MDGs: the 1993 National Population Policy and its ICPD+15 (2008) goals, and the 2005-08 Poverty Reduction Strategy.</p> <p align="center"><img border="0" width="442" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335im_/http://www.prb.org/images09/ethiopia.JPG" height="336"/></p> <p align="center"><em>Ethiopian population graduate students prepare outside on campus at dark when electricity went out. (Photo by Charlie Teller)</em></p> <p>In their final exam, I asked if any had changed their minds away from pessimism, and why. To my pleasant surprise, some had after seeing progress on the some of the MDGs and social change in their own younger generation, calling themselves revisionists, neutralists,or cautious optimists.  They became convinced of the importance of using rigorous research methods and reliable indicators to closely monitor and evaluate the pace of the demographic transition and socioeconomic and gender inequities, as well as capacity building in research and training.</p> <p>If these keen students in such a resource-constrained environment can learn so quickly, can’t a country under population pressure use its resilient and adaptive skills to begin to believe in their capacity to accelerate the demographic transition?    ?</p> <br/> <p> <small> <span> You can follow any responses to this entry through the</span> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?feed=rss2&amp;p=66">RSS 2.0</a> <span>feed.</span> <span>You can </span><a href="#respond">leave a response</a>, <span>or</span> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/wp-trackback.php?p=66" rel="trackback">trackback</a> <span>from your own site.</span> </span></small> </p> </div> <!-- AddThis Bookmark Post Button BEGIN --> <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&amp;url=http://prbblog.org/?p=66&amp;title=Are You an Optimist or a Pessimist in Ethiopia?" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div><!-- AddThis Bookmark Post Button END --> </div> <!-- You can start editing here. --> <div class="comments"><h3>6 Responses to &#8220;Are You an Optimist or a Pessimist in Ethiopia?&#8221;</h3></div> <ol class="commentlist"> <li class="alt" id="comment-325"> <div class="gcomment"><cite>Teshome Desta</cite> Says: <br/> <small class="commentmetadata"><a href="#comment-325" title="">July 2nd, 2009 at 2:11 pm</a> </small></div> <div class="ucomment"><p>Ya I am a pessimist concerning the population of Ethiopia. </p> <p>I was one of the 22 graduate students that took the block course &#8220;Population and Development&#8221; in the Institute of Population Studies, Addis Ababa University. </p> <p>The Malthusian symptoms are dominating more than any other veiws of population in Ethiopia. Yes, there is a possibility of capturing the demographic dividend, but, it is too far,and it costs a lot on the existing population as well as on the already degraded natural environment of the country.</p> <p>I was deeeply impressed with the way Professor Charles Teller presented his ideas, and he always initiates us to think more and to reflect it in the class. The class was more interactive, and the course enabled me to know more where my country is and what should be done to foster development.</p> <p>Boserup is being dwarfed by Malthus in Ethiopia, but, if well done, there is a possibility of capturing the demographic dividend soon. Thank you professor!</p> <p>Teshome Desta<br/> Institute of Population Studies,<br/> Addis Ababa University</p> </div> </li> <li id="comment-328"> <div class="gcomment"><cite>Yordanos Seifu</cite> Says: <br/> <small class="commentmetadata"><a href="#comment-328" title="">July 3rd, 2009 at 7:45 am</a> </small></div> <div class="ucomment"><p>I am happy to read a blog on the class the professor had with us during the three and half weeks period he stayed in Ethiopia. I was one among the 22 graduate students that attended his class. </p> <p>The class was of brainstorming type and it went on evaluating Ethipia&#8217;s current socio-economic situation with respect to its neighboring countries in general and the SSA countries in genaral. In so doing it gave us a chance to reavel our stand whether we are optimists or pessiminsts towards achieving the MDGs. </p> <p>As things stand right now it seems that the Malthusian hyphothesis is operating in the the country than is the Boserupian. Concerning the MDGs, the goals are too general that prompt me to call them &#8216;a one cure for all&#8217;. An optimist may say the glass is half full and a pessimist may say the glass is half empty; what I am saying, however, is the glass is twice as large as it should be. </p> <p>Yordanos S.<br/> IPS, Addis Ababa University.</p> </div> </li> <li class="alt" id="comment-342"> <div class="gcomment"><cite>Gizachew Girma</cite> Says: <br/> <small class="commentmetadata"><a href="#comment-342" title="">July 12th, 2009 at 7:38 am</a> </small></div> <div class="ucomment"><p>Here in Ethiopia, what matters more is POPULATION. We are gona explode, God Knows when. There is population policy since 1993,however, with little population program for effective implementation till now. Besides, most of the development program interventions in Ethiopia are rather sectoral, unfocused, jammed and unprioritized with little integration and coordination. How can we be optimists?!</p> <p>Dr. Charlie, really attempted his best to highlight some of the progresses assumed to be achieved in Ethiopia. As to his love for Ethiopia, of course, he is a good sympathetic scholar. But, the reality is beyond negotiation and sypathy. The rapidly growing population against the continuously degraded land (the only dependable resource for the poor, agrarian majority)and poor development coordination at all levels will be grave diggers to the country. </p> <p>Though there is some sort of improvement in the policy environment, the policies are still considered as no one&#8217;s bible except for the so called designers, as usual. Hence, attention should be given to sustainablity of development efforts and coordination mechanisms rather than erroding the country with unintegrated policy floods. </p> <p>Thank you for the blogs.</p> </div> </li> <li id="comment-351"> <div class="gcomment"><cite><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prb/" rel="external nofollow">charles teller</a></cite> Says: <br/> <small class="commentmetadata"><a href="#comment-351" title="">July 13th, 2009 at 10:18 am</a> </small></div> <div class="ucomment"><p>Yordanos&#8217; very perceptive last comment, &#8220;the glass is twice as large as it should be&#8221; is a fantastic reflection of the ancient Ethiopian ge&#8217;ez expression called &#8220;wax and gold&#8221;. It leaves to reader to interpret what is meant by the &#8220;glass&#8221;: it can mean that the glass itself is very fragile, too many vulnerable people in the volatile Horn of Africa region. And that the glass is growing faster than the capacity to hold its contents. I have also found a set of smaller glasses within the country, a regionalism that prides itself on growing rapidly and get a larger share of the national pie!</p> </div> </li> <li class="alt" id="comment-515"> <div class="gcomment"><cite><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://nceph.anu.edu.au/" rel="external nofollow">Colin Butler</a></cite> Says: <br/> <small class="commentmetadata"><a href="#comment-515" title="">October 2nd, 2009 at 10:14 pm</a> </small></div> <div class="ucomment"><p>Personally, I am very relieved to find that the majority of the students were &#8220;Malthusianist&#8221; - if by that is meant an appreciation that limits to growth exist and that accelerating the demographic transition in Ethiopia is vital in order to minimise the risk of devastating conflict or worsening food insecurity. Concern about the reality of approaching limits may focus the mind of Ethiopians on ways to minimise or even avert the intensified tragedy that would undoubtedly occur if unchecked population growth continues.. and I&#8217;m sure Ester Boserup would agree .. she never advocated a Julian Simon type position that human population growth rates and absolute size scarcely matter.</p> </div> </li> <li id="comment-642"> <div class="gcomment"><cite><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prb/" rel="external nofollow">charles teller</a></cite> Says: <br/> <small class="commentmetadata"><a href="#comment-642" title="">December 7th, 2009 at 12:43 pm</a> </small></div> <div class="ucomment"><p>Collin, I too am excited that the majority of our Ethiopian students are so engaged and passionate about the demographic transition and what it means to them, their futures and their families. Students like Gezachew worry about rapid population growth as a &#8220;grave-digger&#8221; and plead for addressing the sustainability and coordination of development efforts (instead of piecemeal 3-5 year projects), while Yordanos pleades that the glass (the population) is &#8220;twice as large&#8221; as it should be. So that makes me an optimist about the future generations of demographic leadership and their capacity to confront reality.</p> </div> </li> </ol> <div class="comments"><h3>Leave a Reply</h3></div> <form action="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/wp-comments-post.php" method="post" id="commentform"> <p><input type="text" name="author" id="author" value="" size="22" tabindex="1"/> <label for="author"><small>Name (required)</small></label></p> <p><input type="text" name="email" id="email" value="" size="22" tabindex="2"/> <label for="email"><small>Mail (will not be published) (required)</small></label></p> <p><input type="text" name="url" id="url" value="" size="22" tabindex="3"/> <label for="url"><small>Website</small></label></p> <!--<p><small><strong>XHTML:</strong> You can use these tags: <code>&lt;a href=&quot;&quot; title=&quot;&quot;&gt; &lt;abbr title=&quot;&quot;&gt; &lt;acronym title=&quot;&quot;&gt; &lt;b&gt; &lt;blockquote cite=&quot;&quot;&gt; &lt;code&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;i&gt; &lt;strike&gt; &lt;strong&gt; </code></small></p>--> <p><textarea name="comment" id="comment" cols="60%" rows="10" tabindex="4"></textarea></p> <p><input name="submit" type="submit" id="submit" tabindex="5" value="Submit Comment"/> <input type="hidden" name="comment_post_ID" value="66"/> </p> </form> <div class="alignleft">&laquo; <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?p=65">Demographic Forces at Work to Change Iran</a></div> <div class="alignright"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://prbblog.org/?p=67">Population Boom in America’s Big Cities</a> &raquo;</div> </div> </td></tr></table></center> <!--googleoff: all--> <br/><br/> <div align="center"> <div align="center" id="ftr"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer2.gif" width="3" height="23" align="right"/><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer1.gif" width="3" height="23" align="left"/><span class="footertext">Services: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://www.prb.org/Home/EmailSignup.aspx">Get E-Mail News</a> &nbsp;&middot;&nbsp; <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://www.prb.org/Join.aspx">Join/Renew Membership</a> &nbsp;&middot;&nbsp; <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://www.prb.org/Donate.aspx">Donate</a> &nbsp;&middot;&nbsp; <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://www.prb.org/Bookstore.aspx">Bookstore</a> &nbsp;&middot;&nbsp; <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://www.prb.org/Home/Contact.aspx">Contact</a> &nbsp;&middot;&nbsp; <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://www.prb.org/SpanishContent.aspx">Espa&ntilde;ol</a> &nbsp;&middot;&nbsp; <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://www.prb.org/FrenchContent.aspx">Fran&ccedil;ais</a></span></div> <span class="footer2text"><b>Copyright 2007, Population Reference Bureau.</b> All rights reserved. &bull; <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/http://www.prb.org/Home/Privacy.aspx">Privacy Policy</a></span><br/> <span class="footer2text">1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW &bull; Suite 520 &bull; Washington, DC 20009-5728 &bull; USA <br/> <b>Phone:</b> 800-877-9881 &bull; <b>Fax:</b> 202-328-3937 &bull; <b>E-mail:</b> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091214041335/mailto:popref@prb.org">popref@prb.org</a></span><br/> </div> <!--googleon: all--> </div> <!-- Google Analytics start --> <script type="text/javascript"> var gaJsHost = (("https:" == document.location.protocol) ? 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