How is AI Really Impacting Jobs? A Nuanced Approach

<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en" dir="ltr" prefix="sy: http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/ atom: http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom content: http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/ dc: http://purl.org/dc/terms/ foaf: http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/ og: http://ogp.me/ns# rdfs: http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema# schema: http://schema.org/ sioc: http://rdfs.org/sioc/ns# sioct: http://rdfs.org/sioc/types# skos: http://www.w3.org/2004/02/skos/core# xsd: http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema# "> <head> <meta charset="utf-8" /> <meta name="description" content="Many studies have attempted to estimate the potential effects of technological change on employment and the labor market in France. In March 2024, Emmanuel Macron received the first report from the Committee on Generative Artificial Intelligence, which partly utilizes the recent study by HEC economics professor Antonin Bergeaud. The report concludes that jobs directly replaceable by AI would only represent 5% of the jobs in a country like France, and automation could affect between 10% and 20% of workers, with a high prevalence among managers. In this article, we present the results of these analyses in context." /> <link rel="canonical" href="https://www.hec.edu/en/how-ai-really-impacting-jobs-nuanced-approach" /> <meta property="og:site_name" content="HEC Paris" /> <meta property="og:title" content="How is AI Really Impacting Jobs? A Nuanced Approach" /> <meta property="og:description" content="Many studies have attempted to estimate the potential effects of technological change on employment and the labor market in France. In March 2024, Emmanuel Macron received the first report from the Committee on Generative Artificial Intelligence, which partly utilizes the recent study by HEC economics professor Antonin Bergeaud. The report concludes that jobs directly replaceable by AI would only represent 5% of the jobs in a country like France, and automation could affect between 10% and 20% of workers, with a high prevalence among managers. In this article, we present the results of these analyses in context." /> <meta property="og:image" content="https://www.hec.edu/sites/default/files/styles/knowledge_articles_full/public/2024-07/antonin_bergeaud_on_ai_cover.png" /> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" /> <meta name="twitter:site" content="@HECParis" /> <meta name="MobileOptimized" content="width" /> <meta name="HandheldFriendly" content="true" /> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" /> <link rel="icon" href="/sites/default/files/index.ico" type="image/vnd.microsoft.icon" /> <link rel="alternate" hreflang="en" href="https://www.hec.edu/en/how-ai-really-impacting-jobs-nuanced-approach" /> <script src="/sites/default/files/google_tag/primary/google_tag.script.js?snca23" defer></script> <title>How is AI Really Impacting Jobs? 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A Nuanced Approach </span> </li> </ul> </nav> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="knowledge-print-698765528"> <div class="page-top bg-theme-3 pb-1"> <div class="container-full"> <div class="page-top__container container"> <div class="page-top__content-wrapper"> <div class="page-top__content w-lg-100 w-md-100"> <div class="page-top__content-inner"> <div class="title-item text-left"> <span class="h2 color-knowledge-1 size-32">Article</span> </div> </div> <div class="page-top__content-inner"> <div class="title-item text-left"> <h1 class="hec-hide">How is AI Really Impacting Jobs? A Nuanced Approach </h1> <span class="h4 size-55 size-md-30 h-not-condensed ">How is AI Really Impacting Jobs? A Nuanced Approach </span> </div> </div> <div class="page-top__content-inner"> <div class="row mt-lg-4 mt-md-3"> <div class="col-lg-2 pr-lg-4"> <div class="d-flex flex-lg-column flex-md-row"> <a href="/en/knowledge?themes=1246" title="Economics"> <div class="cartridge bg-theme-1 text-uppercase size-12 font-family-condensed"> Economics </div> </a> <div class="pl-lg-0 pl-md-4"><div class="article-knowledge-item__date-infos mt-lg-3 mt-md-0"><div class="article-knowledge-item__date-label"> Published on: </div> <div class="article-knowledge-item__date"> <div><time datetime="2024-07-14T22:00:00Z">July 15th, 2024</time> </div> </div></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-lg-10 pl-lg-5"> <div class="size-18 font-weight-medium"> <div><div class="rte"><p><strong>Many studies have attempted to estimate the potential effects of technological change on employment and the labor market in France. In March 2024, Emmanuel Macron received the first report from the Committee on Generative Artificial Intelligence, which partly utilizes the recent study by HEC economics professor Antonin Bergeaud. The report concludes that jobs directly replaceable by AI would only represent 5% of the jobs in a country like France, and automation could affect between 10% and 20% of workers, with a high prevalence among managers. In this article, we present the results of these analyses in context.</strong></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="l-container"> <div class="l-container__col p-0 margin-neg-40 position-relative"> <div class="l-container__col-content l-container__col-content--1"> <div> <img loading="lazy" class="img-max-w" src="/sites/default/files/styles/knowledge_articles_full/public/2024-07/antonin%20bergeaud%20on%20AI_cover.png?itok=7fqfoMMg" width="657" height="390" alt="antonin bergeaud on AI_cover" typeof="foaf:Image" /> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="l-container"> <div class="l-container__col "> <div class="l-container__col-content l-container__col-content--1"> <div class="blocks-list "> <div class="blocks-list__area "> <div class="row"> <aside class="col-lg-3 pl-lg-5"> <div class="article-info"> <div class="article-info__authors">By <strong> <a href="https://www.hec.edu/en/knowledge/authors/bergeaud-antonin" hreflang="en">Antonin Bergeaud</a> </strong> </div> <div class="d-lg-block d-md-none"> <div class="article-info__link article-info__download"> <a href="#" class="downloadButton" data-for="knowledge-print-698765528" title="Download & Print">Download & Print</a> </div> <div class="article-info__link article-info__share share-link "> <a href="#share-block-897567635" data-toggle="collapse">Share</a> <div class="collapse share-link__box" id="share-block-897567635"> <div class="share-link__box-content"> <div class="share-link__box-link"> <span st_url="https://www.hec.edu/en/how-ai-really-impacting-jobs-nuanced-approach" st_title="Knowledge - article - How is AI Really Impacting Jobs? A Nuanced Approach " class="icon st_facebook_custom"> <i class="icon__icon webfont webfont-facebook size-13 mr-2 color-facebook" aria-hidden="true"></i> <span class="icon__content"> <span class="icon__title color-yiq-dark">FACEBOOK</span> </span> </span> </div> <div class="share-link__box-link"> <span st_url="https://www.hec.edu/en/how-ai-really-impacting-jobs-nuanced-approach" st_title="Knowledge - article - How is AI Really Impacting Jobs? A Nuanced Approach " class="icon st_twitter_custom"> <i class="icon__icon webfont webfont-twitter size-13 mr-2 color-twitter" aria-hidden="true"></i> <span class="icon__content"> <span class="icon__title color-yiq-dark">TWITTER</span> </span> </span> </div> <div class="share-link__box-link"> <span st_url="https://www.hec.edu/en/how-ai-really-impacting-jobs-nuanced-approach" st_title="Knowledge - article - How is AI Really Impacting Jobs? A Nuanced Approach " class="icon st_linkedin_custom"> <i class="icon__icon webfont webfont-linkedin size-13 mr-2 color-linkedin" aria-hidden="true"></i> <span class="icon__content"> <span class="icon__title color-yiq-dark">LINKEDIN</span> </span> </span> </div> <div class="share-link__box-link"> <a href="mailto:?subject=Knowledge - article - How is AI Really Impacting Jobs? A Nuanced Approach &body=https://www.hec.edu/en/how-ai-really-impacting-jobs-nuanced-approach" class="icon"> <i class="icon__icon webfont webfont-email size-13 mr-2 color-hec" aria-hidden="true"></i> <span class="icon__content"> <span class="icon__title color-yiq-dark">EMAIL</span> </span> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="article-info__link article-info__font-size"> <a href="#" class="plusButton" data-for="knowledge-print-698765528"> <img src="/themes/custom/hec_theme/assets/plus.png" alt="" /> </a> <a href="#" class="minusButton" data-for="knowledge-print-698765528"> <img src="/themes/custom/hec_theme/assets/minus.png" alt="" /> </a> </div> </div> </div> </aside> <article class="col-lg-9 pr-lg-5"> <div><div class="rte"><div class="video-embed-field-provider-youtube video-embed-field-responsive-video"><div class="video-container"> <iframe width="854" height="480" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" data-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JF7wZ-aYs_Q?autoplay=0&start=0&rel=0" data-vendor="c:youtube" data-vendor-name="Youtube"> </iframe>  <div class="video-consent-overlay"> <div class="video-consent-overlay-text"> External content from <em class="placeholder">Youtube</em> has been blocked. </div> <div class="video-consent-overlay-accept-button" onclick="Didomi.preferences.show('vendors')"> Access privacy settings </div> </div> </div> </div> <h2><span class="h4">First, why study the effects of AI on employment?</span></h2> <p>Many economists perceive the rapid development of AI as a major technological revolution. Yet, there is no real consensus on its consequences for productivity and employment.</p> <p>From an economic point of view, it is important to study the effect of AI on labor productivity and employment, including reallocations, employee characteristics, and the professions involved. Understanding whether AI primarily impacts certain tasks rather than entire jobs is essential.</p> <p> </p> <p><span class="d-block quote__content color-theme-2"><span class="d-block quote is-gray"><span style="color:#f39c12;">Understanding whether AI primarily impacts certain tasks rather than entire jobs is essential.</span></span></span></p> <p> </p> <p>Indeed, AI could accelerate the obsolescence of human capital and transform working methods, raising questions about the evolution of wages and employees' bargaining power.</p> <p>By facilitating task automation, AI could negatively affect labor demand in certain sectors, where some tasks would now be performed by machines.</p> <p>On the other hand, AI could also lead to significant productivity gains and job creation in complementary sectors.</p> <h2><span class="h4">Studies in France and the United States highlight job creation and the need for training</span></h2> <p>In the United States, in 2023, a <a class="link-rte" href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31161">study </a>by the National Bureau of Economic Research showed that implementing an AI tool to assist customer service employees in responding to inquiries increased their productivity by 25%. This productivity increase far outpaces eliminating certain positions, as AI can also improve workers' performance.</p> <p>In France, the report submitted to Emmanuel Macron by the <a class="link-rte" href="https://www.solutions-numeriques.com/le-comite-de-lia-generative-rend-son-rapport-a-lelysee-mercredi/">Committee on Generative Artificial Intelligence</a> on March 13, 2024, also explains that AI could have a positive impact on employment, but only if its dissemination is accompanied by investments in training and better inclusion of staff representatives.</p> <p>The study, like Bergeaud's, is based on data from INSEE, the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, showing that companies that adopted AI systems between 2018 and 2020 saw their employment numbers increase faster than those that did not adopt these technologies. These new technologies have thus created jobs that did not exist before 2018.</p> <p>In his January 2024 <a class="link-rte" href="http://longtermproductivity.com/perso/exposure_ia.pdf">note</a>, Antonin Bergeaud concludes that automation could affect about 20% of workers, with a high prevalence among managers. The researcher focused on precisely analyzing the tasks performed by an average employee in 220 different professions, which allowed him to identify the professions likely to be highly automated and those that would benefit in terms of productivity and new skills.</p> <h2><span class="h4">Methodology and data</span></h2> <p>The Commission chaired by Aghion and Bouverot and Bergeaud use the same method and data. To evaluate the impact of AI, Antonin Bergeaud analyzed 16,937 tasks related to 220 professions from the O*NET database. For each task, he applied the GPT-4 model with specific instructions (or prompts) and assigned a score to measure the potential for substitutability, that is, the likelihood that the task could be performed by AI in the near future. By integrating the potentials for substitution and complementarity (if AI collaborates with a human to enhance their skills), he calculated the proportion of tasks difficult to automate for each profession.</p> <p> </p> <p><span class="d-block quote__content color-theme-2"><span class="d-block quote is-gray"><span style="color:#f39c12;">Between 10% and 20% of employment are at risk with AI, which is a lot, but less than some alarmist discourses suggest when they talk about a near-total disappearance of employment.</span></span></span></p> <p> </p> <p>The professor details the limitations of these analyses: "<em>In practice, what we can do is evaluate a kind of exposure score to AI profession by profession. Besides, the question we cannot definitively answer is 'where to set the threshold to determine that a job is at risk?' In my note and the report, the threshold has likely been set at different points, but we can say that the magnitude is between 10% and 20% of employment, which is a lot, but less than some alarmist discourses suggest when they talk about a near-total disappearance of employment</em>."</p> <h2><span class="h4">The most impacted professions</span></h2> <p>Bergeaud thus finds that professions like secretaries, accountants, and telemarketers, which are highly exposed to AI and involve few complex tasks, are the most threatened. Other professions will also be transformed, even if they are not entirely replaced. Conversely, manual jobs, such as roofer, or relational ones, such as concierge, should be little affected by these transformations.</p> <div data-embed-button="embed_image" data-entity-embed-display="view_mode:media.full" data-entity-embed-display-settings="{" link_url data-entity-type="media" data-entity-uuid="98a8aaec-bfea-4bd1-ac2c-504c1e5330ef" data-langcode="en" class="align-center embedded-entity"> <img loading="lazy" src="/sites/default/files/2024-07/metiers_automatises.png" width="1098" height="777" title="metiers_automatises" typeof="foaf:Image"> </div> <p class="text-align-center"> <br> Figure 3, extracted from Bergeaud's note: Cumulative distribution of employment based on the risk of automation by AI.</p> <p> </p> <p>Overall, Bergeaud estimates that the impact of AI should be positive due to significant time savings.</p> <h2><span class="h4">The EU develops the AI Act to protect work from AI</span></h2> <p>The development of AI also raises crucial questions about the evolution of employment and its legal framework. In response to these concerns, the European Union is preparing the Artificial Intelligence Act, a legal framework that aims to regulate AI uses, particularly in relation to employment. This framework imposes specific obligations on AI system providers based on the potential risks of their uses, categorizing, for example, AI systems related to employment as high-risk. It still needs to be formally adopted before its progressive entry into force starting in 2025.</p> <h2><span class="h4">In a nutshell</span></h2> <p>The study conducted by Antonin Bergeaud provides a nuanced view of the impact of AI on employment in France. Although 20% of jobs could be heavily impacted, AI also offers significant opportunities in terms of productivity gains and new job creation.</p> <p>The importance of training and the inclusion of staff representatives is crucial to support this transition.</p> <p>The development of AI must also be accompanied by an appropriate legal framework to ensure the ethical and secure use of these technologies.</p> <p>Finally, by investing in research and training, France can leverage AI to improve productivity and create jobs while minimizing the risks of excessive automation.<br>  </p> </div> </div> <div class="deeper-block border-theme-1"> <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/8-milliards-de-voisins/20240909-comment-l-intelligence-artificielle-va-r%C3%A9volutionner-nos-m%C3%A9tiers?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=x&utm_source=user&utm_slink=rfi.my/AwUD" class="deeper-block__link" target="_self">Bergeaud on RFI (in French): Comment l’intelligence artificielle va révolutionn…</a> </div> </article> </div> </div> <div class="blocks-list__area"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-lg-7 offset-lg-3 border-top pt-3 px-lg-0"> Reference: Bergeaud A. (2024), "<a class="link-rte" href="http://longtermproductivity.com/perso/exposure_ia.pdf"><em>Exposition à l’intelligence artificielle générative et emploi : une application à la classification socio-professionnelle française</em></a>" (« <em>Exposition à l’intelligence artificielle générative et emploi : une application à la classification socio-professionnelle française</em> »), Working Paper. </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="l-container"> <div class="l-container__col pt-0"> <div class="l-container__col-content l-container__col-content--1"> <div> <div class="bottom-article-block border-top"> <div class="bottom-article-block__area"> <span class="bottom-article-block__label">Related topics:</span> <a href="/en/knowledge?themes=1246" title="Economics"> <div class="bottom-article-block__cartridge"> <div class="cartridge bg-theme-1">Economics</div> </div> </a> <a href="/en/knowledge?themes=2313236" title="Artificial Intelligence"> <div class="bottom-article-block__cartridge"> <div class="cartridge bg-theme-1">Artificial Intelligence</div> </div> </a> <a href="/en/knowledge?themes=19436" title="Video"> <div class="bottom-article-block__cartridge"> <div class="cartridge bg-theme-1">Video</div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="bottom-article-block__area"> <div class="bottom-article-block__tool"><div class="article-info__link article-info__download"><a href="#" class="downloadButton" title="Download & Print" data-for="knowledge-print-698765528">Download & Print</a></div></div><div class="bottom-article-block__tool"><div class="article-info__link article-info__share share-link "><a href="#share-block-1044641718" data-toggle="collapse">Share</a><div class="collapse share-link__box" id="share-block-1044641718"><div class="share-link__box-content"><div class="share-link__box-link"><span st_url="https://www.hec.edu/en/how-ai-really-impacting-jobs-nuanced-approach" st_title="Knowledge - article - How is AI Really Impacting Jobs? 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His research focuses on the long-run determinants of GDP evolution, whether... </p> </div> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="l-container"> <div class="l-container__col bg-theme-3"> <div class="l-container__col-content l-container__col-content--1 l-container__col-content--dfw l-container__col-content--mfw"> <div class="blocks-list"> <div class="blocks-list__area"> <div class="container"> <div class="title-item text-left"> <h2 class="m-0"> <span class="h3 color-hec size-32 h-separator">Related content on Economics</span> </h2> </div> </div> </div> <div class="blocks-list__area"> <div class="container-md"> <hec-carousel multiple> <div class="article-knowledge-item slider-display"> <a href="/en/struggle-dominance-central-banks-fiscal-policy-and-risks-debt-fueled-inflation" title="The Struggle for Dominance: Central Banks, Fiscal Policy, and the Risks of Debt-Fueled Inflation"> <div class="article-knowledge-item__img"> <div> <img loading="lazy" class="img-max-w" 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