Mysteel周报：热轧板卷价格宽幅回调市场观望情绪浓厚（10.12-10.18）-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>板卷库存49.63万吨，需求端来看，下游依旧保持刚需采购，遇跌观望。需求端，下游端依旧在保持刚需采购，大涨大跌的行情下，市场需求端观望情绪较浓，市场贸易商报价参差不齐，下游需求端对低价资源接受度较高。目前宏观影响面较大，期货跟随市场发布政策变动涨跌。政策端大方向来看还是较为利好的。综合来看，预计近期热轧板卷或将震荡运行。</p> <p align="justify">华南市场方面：本周广州热轧板卷价格震荡下行，目前主导钢厂4.75mm普卷价格在3500元/吨左右，低合金卷价格在3610-3630元/吨之间，广州热卷均价较上周下跌150元/吨左右。市场方面，加工表现一般，主要是门市/下游加工，实际体感较差。钢厂结算价高，部分钢厂放出锁价资源。市场厚薄组距在200元/吨附近，代理挺价，高报低走；普低组距在100-130元/吨之间，维持不变。资源方面，普碳到货依然较少，预计11月开始逐步恢复正常。目前，广东热轧板卷现货库存在83.5万吨左右，较上周减少4万吨左右。综合来看，预计下周广东热轧板卷价格或窄幅震荡。</p> <p align="justify">华北市场方面：本周受宏观政策面消息不及市场预期，盘面出现大幅波动，现货市场情绪随即出现恐慌，京津冀地区热轧板卷市场价格宽幅下行，回吐前期涨幅。价格方面，周环比来看，较上周下降140-210元/吨。从钢厂端来看，因螺纹的利润好于热卷，部分钢铁将铁水转向螺纹，热卷产量有所下降。从库存来看，目前市场到货较少，加之在17日之前市场一直维持库存去化状态，华北地区热卷库存继续小幅下降。短期来看，长材利润好于板材，导致热卷产量有所下降，且流转到市场速度较慢，叠加部分钢厂在排产出口订单，短期热卷库存或仍处于有效消化期内，库存压力不大。但近期来看，热卷出口报价偏高，海外客户观望情绪浓厚。而在政策消息面无新增利好，仅是逐渐落地前期政策，后面交易逻辑或将回归理性，更多关注产业基本面。在供强需弱，且入冬后需求不及供给增量的预期，预计华北地区热卷价格或仍将震荡运行，后期仍需关注宏观政策动向。</p> <p align="justify">【指数方面】</p> <p align="justify">10月18日Myspic国内钢材价格综合指数132.86，较上周下跌3.34%，较上月上涨9.78%，与去年同期相比下跌6.17%；国内扁平材指数为114.44，较上周下跌2.94%，较上月上涨11.34%，与去年同期相比下跌8.75%；热卷指数为124.96，较上周下跌3.06%，较上月上涨11.82%，与去年同期相比下跌7.83%。</p> <p align="justify">【价格方面】</p> <p align="justify"><img src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/18/ced8dad773e24ebfb02c303b1d1cbfa2.png" alt="" width="600" height="101.41872719902716" /> </p> <p align="center">表1：全国主要区域价格变化(2024.10.12-2024.10.18）</p> <p align="justify">热轧板卷：本周国内热轧板卷价格大幅下行，全国24个主要市场3.0mm热轧板卷价格均价为3602元/吨，较上周下跌153元/吨；4.75mm热轧板卷均价为3537元/吨，较上周下跌153元/吨。</p> <p align="justify"><img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/10/18/1cedd1713fcb4d66b3b4c83963a9c158.png" alt="" width="600" height="143.47826086956522" /> </p> <p align="center">表2：全国主要区域热卷库存变化(2024.10.12-2024.10.18）</p> <p align="justify">从各区域的库存数据看，降幅最大的区域是华南地区，较上周降4万吨，增幅最大的区域是西北地区，较上周增0.36万吨。</p> <p align="justify">【趋势分析与建议】</p> <p align="justify">本周市场盘面在前期大幅上行后有所回调，现货市场价格跟跌，成交一定程度转弱，但库存依然处于降库状态，主要集中在华南，华东等区域，其余地区降幅较小。库存转降的情况下，下游备货积极性有所提升，市场价格近期属理性回调，预计短期内预期以及需求回暖刺激下，价格有进一步上扬可能。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：吴金昌 021-26094199 </br> 资讯监督：陈靖夫 021-26093640 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-21-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-21-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div class="list-block recommend-list"> 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Mysteel周报：热轧板卷价格宽幅回调 市场观望情绪浓厚（10.12-10.18）-我的钢铁网

Mysteel周报：热轧板卷价格宽幅回调市场观望情绪浓厚（10.12-10.18）-我的钢铁网