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2em">周四(3月10日)早盘，期市商品涨跌分化。涨幅方面，铁矿石涨4.04%，聚丙烯涨2.3%；螺纹钢、PVC、热卷、焦炭、棕榈油等涨幅超1%。跌幅方面，玉米跌1.7%，动力煤跌1.53%，沪锡跌1.21%。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">铁矿石涨势难言结束</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">铁矿石方面，截至3月4日，港口库存为9510万吨，低于1亿吨的常规水平。大中型钢厂的铁矿石可用天数一直处于20多天的水平，小钢厂甚至出现接近零库存的状态。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">而在熊市后期，市场出清的速度加快，供给过剩矛盾已经变得不如初期和中期那么尖锐。因此，认清钢矿市场熊市尾部的供需特征，对理解本周这种现货市场稍有风吹草动便引发期货价格“巨震”的现象具有重要意义。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">从黑色产业链的终端——房地产市场情况来看，目前尚未见到明显的投资需求回暖的征兆。尽管1、2月数据尚未公布，但从春节期间一线城市房价大涨和诸多二线城市地产市场复苏的情况看，刚刚过去这两个月的数据应该相对较好，但地产投资恢复还是需要一定的传导时间。不过，即将到来的地产旺季，可能在短期对钢矿价格产生一定支撑。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">伴随着钢价走稳，钢厂盈利比率已经回到了44%的水平，扭转了去年年末几乎全行业亏损的局面。这表明，尽管投资回暖尚待证实，但上下两端确实有好转的迹象。就铁矿石价格来看，考虑到供给端较高的垄断程度，铁矿石现货短期仍有可能振荡走高，期货价格跟随上涨是大概率事件。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">综上所述，笔者认为铁矿价格短期在回调之后，仍将振荡走高。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">动力煤阶段性顶部已形成</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">上周末，位于吉林省白山市的通化矿业松树煤矿发生一起煤与瓦斯突出事故，导致13人被困井下，煤矿安全生产问题再次引发社会关注。而年前神木县矿难对于陕北煤炭生产的影响也还没结束，榆林地区多数地方矿仍处于整顿状态。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">3月初，陕西榆林地区的煤矿早已接到煤炭监管部门关于切实加强全国两会期间安全生产工作的紧急通知，通知的大体精神为：两会期间要求区内各生产、在建煤矿停止一切井下采、掘作业，并安排开展隐患大排查，对于擅自组织生产的，按相关规定给予处罚。其他各省市也纷纷加大了两会期间的煤矿安监力度，目前山西和蒙西地区煤矿虽已开工，但复产力度不大，以去库存为主。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">上述情况导致港口的煤炭供给依然呈现偏紧的局面，动力煤现货稳中有涨的小阳春行情有可能持续到3月底。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">除周边商品普涨外，投资者从动力煤市场本身找不到更多的理由来支持动力煤期货价格出现如此大幅的上涨。所谓“登高易摔”，投资者担忧行情剧烈波动，因此在上涨过程中，主力多空双方都以减仓为主，这也在一定程度上削弱了涨停对于后市的指引作用。周三跌停之后，动力煤期货市场总持仓量小幅回升，空头增仓积极性相对更高一些。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">从持仓排行榜来看，上周持仓量位居前列的主力席位很多都退出了榜单，新出现的面孔换手也较为频繁，疑似以短线交易为主。从K线形态来看，动力煤期货在十字星线后又收出一根长阴线，阶段性顶部已经形成，市场回到原点，但后市回调幅度存在不确定性，多头排列的均线系统可能发挥作用。</p> <p style="text-indent: 2em">综上所述，过山车行情暂告一段落，目前动力煤市场处于供需两弱的局面，短期现货平稳向好，将支撑动力煤期货维持偏强走势。</p><br /> <br /> <img src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2016/03/09/152503.png" /> <br /> <a style="color:#F00;" href="http://data.glinfo.com/" target="_blank"> [需要查看更多数据，请免费试用钢联数据]</a> </div> <div class="text" id="btext"></div> <div id="a5"></div> </div> <script type="text/javascript" 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