Mysteel年报：2025年国内焊接钢管价格重心或小幅上移-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>钢管</a>行业经历了供给侧改革以来最艰难的一年。国内外形势风云诡谲，地缘冲突愈演愈烈，全球贸易保护主义不断抬头，美西方国家通胀压力仍存，世界经济经历着较大的衰退风险；2024年，国内经济增长仍具韧性，但仍受到消费动能不足的影响，叠加房地产投资持续下行、地方政府债务问题突出，粗钢产量及钢材需求明显下滑，同时用钢需求结构性变化明显，建筑用钢需求占比不断下降，制造业用钢需求占比提升，值得一提的是，国内钢材出口表现亮眼。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">今年以来，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010903-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焊管</a>价格整体呈现先抑后扬走势，全年价格中枢大幅下移，即期利润前低后高，亏损天数同比大幅增加，生产企业面临亏损困境，尤其是中小钢管生产企业经营困难，停产管厂数量明显增加，全年焊管产量、库存均呈现逐步下滑态势，行业信心受到较大打击。从今年的产能变化来看，我国今年产能退出速度进一步加快，价格大幅下行使得焊管生产企业以控产量、低库存、快周转为主要经营思路。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">展望2025年，从周期角度看，钢铁行业将逐步从衰退周期向复苏周期过度。一方面政策预期已明显转向，2025年我国仍将维持宽松的货币政策与积极的财政政策，增量政策有望逐步加码；另一方面，在10万亿化债政策的加持下，地方政府债务问题将有效化解，房地产市场也逐步走出市场底，房地产销售数据呈现回暖趋势下，市场也有了新的期待。对于2025年需求而言，随着地方政府债务问题逐步化解，经济将有望迎来新一轮复苏，水利、电力、城市管网改造等新型基础设施建设将成为钢管需求新的增长动力，同时，钢结构产量发展快速增长，或为钢管需求带来持续增量，房地产投资虽有所放缓，但随着各项政策效果逐步显现，2025年房地产销售有望逐步回暖，房地产将逐步进入到健康平稳发展阶段，房建需求下滑对用管需求整体影响有限，焊管市场需求或仍值得期待。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>一、价格与利润</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>1、焊管价格创七年新低，全年均价同比大幅下移</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">目前焊管价格处在历史价格中位线下沿，9月13日焊管全国均价为3481元/吨，创2017年5月以来新低；截止目前，2024年焊管全年均价为4010元/吨，较2023年全年均价下降383元/吨。全年来看，2024年焊管价格整体呈现“两头高、中间低”的走势，下跌行情基本贯穿1-3季度，9月下旬开启修复性反弹。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 165.864px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/16/1459321.png" width="600" height="166" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>2、焊管价格韧性强于多数钢材品种，与海外价差有所收缩</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">品种年内跌幅对比来看，焊管下跌467元/吨，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>跌幅为624元/吨，热卷跌幅为599元/吨，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>中厚板</a>跌幅为526元/吨；<strong>与主要国家相比价差有所收缩。</strong>截止11月，2024年中国焊接钢管均价为557美元/吨，日本为775美元/吨，欧盟为750美元/吨，美国中西部地区为930美元/吨，2024年与美国、日本价差较去年同比收缩80-100美元。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/16/1459322.png" width="600" height="176" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>3、焊镀价差同比前低后高卷带差回归合理区间 </strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">焊镀价差：2024年焊管与<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010905-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌管</a>价差呈现前低后高走势，前三季度基本稳定在650元/吨一线，四季度一路扩大至750元/吨附近，全年焊镀价差较去年同比收缩约50元/吨；</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">管带价差：管带价差前低后高，上半年管带差基本稳定在200元/吨，下半年增至300元/吨附近，目前同比扩大约100元/吨；</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">卷带价差：2024年全年卷带差基本为正，极少倒挂，全年平均价差在50元/吨，卷带差整体保持合理区间。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/16/1459323.png" width="600" height="180" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>4、焊镀利润同比下滑行业效益为近年来最差水平</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">利润持续下滑，2024年焊管年平均利润36元/吨，同比持平；<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌</a>管年平均利润为44.3元/吨，同比下降32.4元/吨；焊管、镀锌管全年即期利润亏损天数明显增加，2023年亏损天数占比约为31%，2024年亏损天数占比约为45.6%，企业经营效益整体偏差。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/16/1459324.png" width="600" height="190" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>二、产量与库存</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>1、全年产量同比大幅下降，细分品种产量结构性变化较大</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>对全国362家焊管生产企业（产能覆盖超95%）调研，2024年全国焊管预估产量约为5337.3万吨，同比减少860万吨，同比降幅达13.9%，为2017年以来最大降幅。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">细分品种产量结构性变化明显：基管产量各细分品种均出现两位数以上的降幅，其中<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1011-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>脚手架</a>管降幅较大，直缝焊管、螺旋管、方矩管产量降幅均在12-17%之间。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">高附加值产品产量比重明显增加，其中镀锌圆管占焊管比重从2022年51.7%增至54.5%，镀锌方矩管占方矩管比重从2023年26.4%增至30.5%；传统脚手架及盘扣脚手架管产量受地产不景气影响降幅较大。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/16/1459325.png" width="600" height="183" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>2、去库周期下厂库及社库均维持低位，库销比前高后低 </strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">管厂以销定产。管厂库存全年大部分时期库存均低于去年库存水平，基本都处在库存警戒线附近徘徊，三季度以来，受需求改善及原料资源紧缺影响，厂内库存降幅较大；</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">贸易商库存逐步下降，2024年上半年，焊管社库呈先增后降态势，面对价格大幅下行，商家多将库存降至极限水平，库存周期由主动去库转被动去库。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/16/1459326.png" width="600" height="262" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>三、需求与进出口</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>1、成交降幅明显，淡旺季转换规律弱化</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">受房建投资下行及非民生项目暂缓建设的影响，2024年全年需求整体弱于去年水平，9月起需求出现小幅回暖；具体来看，房地产施工项目数下滑严重影响镀锌管需求，管网改造、水利、市政护栏等基础设施建设对冲了部分因房地产投资下滑的影响。据Mysteel对全国178家贸易商调研，2024年全年日均成交量为16637吨，降幅为20.1%；分区域来看，华北、华中、西北、西南地区成交量降幅超20%。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/16/1459327.png" width="600" height="188" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>2、焊管进出口均维持增长，其中出口大幅增长 </strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">我国焊管出口极具价格竞争优势，焊管出口增幅明显，进出口单价扩大至近4倍。2024年1-10月中国累计出口焊管434.75万吨，同比增长20.18%；2024年1-10月中国累计进口焊管8.236万吨，同比增长9.70%；2024年1-10月中国累计净出口焊管426.51万吨，同比增长20.4%。我国焊管主要出口国家为菲律宾、印尼、沙特、越南、阿联酋等，主要以东南亚、中东等一带一路沿线国家为主；主要进口地为日本、韩国、德国、越南等，主要以发达国家和地区为主。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/16/1459328.png" width="600" height="176" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>四、2025年焊接钢管市场展望</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 173.227px;" src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/16/1459329.png" width="600" height="173" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>1、供给展望：供给过剩，行业竞争压力加大，头部管厂继续跑马圈地，小管厂生存空间继续压缩</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">根据Mysteel不完全统计，2024年累计淘汰焊管产线95条，产能507万吨，新增产线25条，产能179万吨，总产能下降328万吨。2025年我国焊管产能预计将降至1.1亿吨，中小管厂竞争优势将逐渐丧失，主要方向为长流程钢厂扩充产品线及焊管头部生产企业跑马圈地（如友发集团成都青白江区160万吨产能新增），进行区域产能布局优化。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">产量方面，2025年焊管供需基本面或继续维持弱平衡，产量或增至5500万吨，市场竞争将进一步加剧，全年产能利用率水平将小幅增长，行业洗牌进入决胜阶段。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>2、需求展望：需求整体稳中微增，结构持续调整</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">房地产投资增速下滑影响，房建用管需求或面临继续下降的压力，但油气、市政建设、钢结构等领域用管需求或有亮点。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">需求整体稳中有增，结构持续调整。2025年逆周期、跨周期调节政策继续发力，在积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策加持下，基建投资仍将作为托底经济的重要手段。钢结构及基建领域管网改造、护栏、水利、电力、油气管线、热力等民生领域仍将有可观需求增量，房地产投资额降幅有望收窄，房建领域用钢需下滑对整体用管需求影响减小，整体来看，2025年需求仍具韧性，但不同品种钢管仍会出现结构性变化，方矩管或强于直缝焊圆管，基建用管好于房地产用管。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">出口方面，焊管出口或仍维持相对高位。一方面由于国内焊管价格仍有极大的比较优势；同时，贸易保护主义难以阻碍全球化趋势，加之我国焊管出口地主要以东南亚、中东等一带一路国家为主。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>3、原料展望：煤焦矿存在较大的高位回落风险，卷带产能过剩背景下价格或高度跟随铁水成本变化</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">煤焦铁矿价格仍处在历史相对高位，2025年<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4262,7073-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁水产量</a>仍有下行预期，同时，在节能减排的产业背景下，减少化石燃料使用成为中长期大趋势，煤焦价格或有所回落；<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石</a>供给过剩，需求下滑，长周期面临一定的下行风险。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;">2025年<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010108-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>带钢</a>市场整体供应或转为宽松，产能过剩的问题仍较为突出，但以镀锌带钢为代表的民用领域带钢消费或维持强劲，整体预计2025年带钢仍将供过于求，对价格的压制仍然存在，整体价格或维持前弱后强态势，价格弹性较弱；</p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><strong>4、价格预判：2025年焊管均价将有望小幅回升。预计2025年焊管全年均价将上移50-100元，价格低点有可能出现在二季度，高点有可能出现在9-10月份；春季市场按历史惯例以预期交易为主，在需求验证期前焊管价格或能维持强势，但上半年房建相关需求仍将大概率出现惯性下滑，黑色产业链在需求验证阶段仍有较大的共振下跌风险。</strong></p> <p style="line-height: 1.75;"><span style="color: #c00000;">操作建议：管厂控制生产节奏，丰富原料采购方式，加快库存运转，提升服务能力；贸易环节保持视销售情况维持合理库存，稳健操作。</span></p> </div>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：代征栋 021-26094216 </br> 资讯监督：代征栋 021-26094216 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4286-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4286-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i class="arrow"></i> </a> </div> <div class="list-block recommend-list"> <ul> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="//m.mysteel.com/a/24121319/AEFA1294834C77E6_abc.html" external> Mysteel：宏观政策定调焊管明年有何亮点 </a> </div> <div class="news-time">2024-12-14</div> </li> <li class="item"> <div class="news-title"> <a data-url="m.mysteel.com" href="//m.mysteel.com/a/24121317/415C2B9D7FA5F662_abc.html" external> 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