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data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="AnchoredHero" class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__SfYQE"><style></style><div data-component="mdc-c-background-image" class="mdc-c-bg-image___GJdv1_2734c4f background-image-article-default ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__parallax-container__fZ7Iq"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__gradient__Uu21n"></div><div class="ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__wrapper-content__XOe9C"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-1 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-10"><div><h1 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-2 mck-u-animation-slide-down ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__heading__bv6rL"><div>Running up on runoff: Strategic options for life closed books</div></h1></div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 mck-u-animation-blur-in-800 ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__description__sjoe9"><div><time datetime="2021-02-10T00:00:00Z">February 10, 2021</time> | Report</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-7 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-10"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Runoff policies often present profitability challenges for European life insurers. Those looking to create value from their closed books can learn from recent market shifts.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Findustries%2Ffinancial%20services%2Four%20insights%2Frunning%20up%20on%20runoff%20strategic%20options%20for%20life%20closed%20books%2Frunning-up-on-runoff-strategic-options-for-life-closed-books.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="running-up-on-runoff-strategic-options-for-life-closed-books" data-layer-report-name="running-up-on-runoff-strategic-options-for-life-closed-books>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (16 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>The traditional value proposition</strong> of life insurance in Europe has been called into question. Breakout moves have not reached industry scale. And as the need for old-age provisioning continues to grow, the challenges continue to increase.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_2734c4f" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_2734c4f mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>About the authors</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body">This article was a collaborative effort by Marion Hämmerli, Nils Jean-Mairet, <a href="/our-people/johannes-tobias-lorenz">Johannes-Tobias Lorenz</a>, Diego Mattone, and Thorsten Röttger, representing views from McKinsey’s Insurance Practice.</div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>These challenges include an ultralow interest-rate environment, which has prevailed for more than a decade; industry-wide structural costs that have not been sufficiently addressed, especially administration and acquisition costs; and a new capital regime (<a href="/industries/financial-services/our-insights/a-vision-for-european-life-insurance-the-time-for-bold-actions-has-come">Solvency II</a>) that not only demands higher capital charges for high-guarantee books but also leads to higher volatility in risk capital charges over time (Exhibit 1).</p> <p>Further complicating matters, the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated these challenges. Capital-market turmoil and a further reduction of interest rates have put pressure on the solvency and profits of life insurers, with effects ranging from decreasing premiums paid because of lockdowns and increasing economic uncertainty and mortality.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/running%20up%20on%20runoff%20strategic%20options%20for%20life%20closed%20books/svgz-mck-strategicoptions-ex1-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Solvency II has increased capital absorption of traditional business for high-guarantee books in the European Union." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/running%20up%20on%20runoff%20strategic%20options%20for%20life%20closed%20books/svgz-mck-strategicoptions-ex1-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>In this article, we explore how insurers can create value from their closed books—policies that continue to generate revenue but no longer receive new business—as well as which partnerships and circumstances show the most potential.</p> <h2>Life insurer performance in Europe and the United States is polarized by company—and many insurers are struggling</h2>  <p>In principle, there are two sources of value creation for life insurers looking to address the current market challenges: new business and the optimization of in-force books, both open and closed. Closed books typically pose the <a href="/industries/financial-services/our-insights/insurance-blog/perspective-on-the-european-life-closed-books-market">primary profitability challenge</a> for the following reasons:</p> <ul> <li>they account for approximately one-third of all premiums paid</li> <li>they often include a high share of high-guarantee policies</li> <li>fixed costs per policy increase over time as the book decreases in premiums and number of policies (the so-called runoff)</li> <li>many are still managed on inefficient legacy systems, as high investment returns on the capital market offset high costs from inefficient IT</li> <li>policy migrations tend to be complex, sometimes taking years and requiring huge costs to complete</li> </ul> <p>Our simulation shows that an additional decrease in solvency of up to 50 to 80 percentage points is likely under a muted recovery scenario, which assumes GDP doesn’t recover to pre-crisis levels until 2024. This impact is mainly driven by two sources: deteriorating financial markets (a 25 to 40 percentage point reduction in solvency) and declining top line (an additional 10 percent decrease in top line would result in a 30 to 40 percentage point reduction in solvency). The negative solvency effect will be particularly severe for life insurers with already-low solvency ratios or with comparably less-sophisticated capital and investment management. These insurers in particular need to think about strategic options for how to run their books efficiently as well as how to safeguard the gurantees in their books in the long run, including closed-book consolidation.</p> <h2>Life insurers can reap much more value from their closed books by applying five levers</h2> <p>The potential efficiency gains from more-effective closed-book management are substantial: the return on equity (ROE) of an average closed-book portfolio in the European market can be improved by up to three to five percentage points. The following five levers can help: operations and IT, investments, capital, technical excellence, and commercial uplift (Exhibit 2). Traditionally, incumbents have focused on operational and commercial levers, often not succeeding in extracting the full potential of other levers, as modernizing digital technology alone can reduce costs in operations or IT and operations by 40 to 50 percent, respectively.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/running%20up%20on%20runoff%20strategic%20options%20for%20life%20closed%20books/svgz-mck-strategicoptions-ex2-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Five levers can be applied to increase return on equity of closed books by three to five percentage points." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/running%20up%20on%20runoff%20strategic%20options%20for%20life%20closed%20books/svgz-mck-strategicoptions-ex2-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Players should reflect on whether they are best positioned to pull these levers themselves or whether partnerships could prove beneficial. Depending on the specific situation of a carrier, insurers could leverage external partnerships in several ways. Some players might consider outsourcing parts of their business, establishing partnerships to reduce balance-sheet exposure by engaging in reinsurance or swaps, or selling a closed book.</p> <h2>Closed-book consolidators have taken root across geographies—and may be good partnership options for some life insurers</h2> <p>When insurers face strategic choices regarding closed books, they should consider the performance of specialized closed-book consolidators. Such entities are either owned by private-equity (PE) companies or independent insurance companies or are part of larger financial holdings.</p> <p>The profitability picture shifts by line and geography. In Continental Europe, nonlife insurers have outperformed life insurers over the past decade. In the United Kingdom, life insurers’ total returns to shareholders (TRS) have been higher than that of nonlife insurers during the same period. And in the United States, the performance of life insurers has been comparable to nonlife insurers (Exhibit 3).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 3</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/running%20up%20on%20runoff%20strategic%20options%20for%20life%20closed%20books/svgz-mck-strategicoptions-ex3-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The stock-market performance of life insurers was better than average, but they still lagged behind P&C insurers in Continental Europe and the United States." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/running%20up%20on%20runoff%20strategic%20options%20for%20life%20closed%20books/svgz-mck-strategicoptions-ex3-v2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h3>Mature markets: United Kingdom and United States</h3> <p>The United Kingdom stands out with several favorable structural differences affecting life insurer performance. For instance, the UK life insurance market’s product offering more closely resembles an asset management market than a traditional life insurance market, and players in both the United Kingdom and the United States typically have a much lower share of high-guarantee savings products in their portfolios compared with Continental Europe.</p> <p>In the United States, mature closed-book market consolidators have achieved significant scale, reducing in-force policy operations costs by 22 percent and technology costs by 41 percent. This trajectory of total cost reduction is visible across many players after the deal has transpired, though such deals have not consistently translated into higher investment margins.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-12"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Would you like to learn more about our <a href="/industries/financial-services/how-we-help-clients">Financial Services Practice</a>?</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/financial-services/how-we-help-clients/insurance" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Visit our Insurance page</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <h3>Developing markets: Continental Europe</h3> <p>In Europe, the operating model of consolidators is often fully focused on the management of closed books. In the less mature German market, consolidators have managed to reduce costs after the acquisition of closed books, though so far the effects have been less visible than in more mature markets.</p> <p>Based on their operating models, closed-book consolidators seem positioned not only to pull a broad range of performance improvement levers but also to translate the effects into stronger overall performance—beyond even the individual improvement of isolated levers. Moreover, they can profit from a management team fully dedicated to improving closed-book performance, which is rarely the case at traditional life players with broader strategic agendas.</p> <p>There is some early evidence that closed-book consolidators can indeed outperform traditional life players and achieve a broader and more sustainable performance improvement. In our experience, insurers can increase the value of a closed-book portfolio, gaining three to five percentage points on ROE, and adopt a tailored retention scheme for the closed-book management team.</p> <p><em>Download </em><a href="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial services/our insights/running up on runoff strategic options for life closed books/running-up-on-runoff-strategic-options-for-life-closed-books.pdf">Running up on runoff: Strategic options for life closed books</a><em>, the full report on which this article is based (PDF–1.1 MB).</em></p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong>Marion Hämmerli</strong> is an associate partner in McKinsey’s Zurich office, where <strong>Diego Mattone</strong> is a partner; <strong><a href="/our-people/johannes-tobias-lorenz">Johannes-Tobias Lorenz</a></strong> is a senior partner in the Düsseldorf office; <strong>Nils Jean-Mairet</strong> is a partner in the London office; and <strong>Thorsten Röttger</strong> is a consultant in the Frankfurt office.</p> <p>The authors wish to thank Ulrike Vogelgesang and McKinsey’s cost benchmarking team for their contributions to this article.</p> <p> </p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 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src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/reimagine%20insurance%20five%20keys%20to%20innovation/reimagine_insurance_1536x1536.png?cq=50&mw=767&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></a></div><div class="Card_wrapper-text__U6Y3k"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f Card_content-block__pF6Z1"><span>Podcast</span><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/industries/financial-services/our-insights/reimagine-insurance-five-keys-to-innovation" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><div>Reimagine insurance: Five keys to innovation</div></a></h6></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"Running up on runoff Strategic options for life closed books","displayName":"Running up on runoff Strategic options for life closed books","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"8b64ed39-6ebd-4aa1-8739-f3a714b16a92","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":1,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Running up on runoff: Strategic options for life closed books"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":"Life insurance value creation"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Runoff policies often present profitability challenges for European life insurers. Those looking to create value from their closed books can learn from recent market shifts."}},"sEODescription":{"value":"Explore how insurers can create value from their closed books."},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2021-02-10T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe traditional value proposition\u003c/strong\u003e of life insurance in Europe has been called into question. Breakout moves have not reached industry scale. And as the need for old-age provisioning continues to grow, the challenges continue to increase.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Sidebar 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eThese challenges include an ultralow interest-rate environment, which has prevailed for more than a decade; industry-wide structural costs that have not been sufficiently addressed, especially administration and acquisition costs; and a new capital regime (\u003ca href=\"/industries/financial-services/our-insights/a-vision-for-european-life-insurance-the-time-for-bold-actions-has-come\"\u003eSolvency II\u003c/a\u003e) that not only demands higher capital charges for high-guarantee books but also leads to higher volatility in risk capital charges over time (Exhibit 1).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFurther complicating matters, the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated these challenges. Capital-market turmoil and a further reduction of interest rates have put pressure on the solvency and profits of life insurers, with effects ranging from decreasing premiums paid because of lockdowns and increasing economic uncertainty and mortality.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eIn this article, we explore how insurers can create value from their closed books\u0026mdash;policies that continue to generate revenue but no longer receive new business\u0026mdash;as well as which partnerships and circumstances show the most potential.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eLife insurer performance in Europe and the United States is polarized by company\u0026mdash;and many insurers are struggling\u003c/h2\u003e\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\u003cp\u003eIn principle, there are two sources of value creation for life insurers looking to address the current market challenges: new business and the optimization of in-force books, both open and closed. Closed books typically pose the \u003ca href=\"/industries/financial-services/our-insights/insurance-blog/perspective-on-the-european-life-closed-books-market\"\u003eprimary profitability challenge\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;for the following reasons:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ethey account for approximately one-third of all premiums paid\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ethey often include a high share of high-guarantee policies\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003efixed costs per policy increase over time as the book decreases in premiums and number of policies (the so-called runoff)\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003emany are still managed on inefficient legacy systems, as high investment returns on the capital market offset high costs from inefficient IT\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003epolicy migrations tend to be complex, sometimes taking years and requiring huge costs to complete\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOur simulation shows that an additional decrease in solvency of up to 50 to 80 percentage points is likely under a muted recovery scenario, which assumes GDP doesn\u0026rsquo;t recover to pre-crisis levels until 2024. This impact is mainly driven by two sources: deteriorating financial markets (a 25 to 40 percentage point reduction in solvency) and declining top line (an additional 10 percent decrease in top line would result in a 30 to 40 percentage point reduction in solvency). The negative solvency effect will be particularly severe for life insurers with already-low solvency ratios or with comparably less-sophisticated capital and investment management. These insurers in particular need to think about strategic options for how to run their books efficiently as well as how to safeguard the gurantees in their books in the long run, including closed-book consolidation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eLife insurers can reap much more value from their closed books by applying five levers\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe potential efficiency gains from more-effective closed-book management are substantial: the return on equity (ROE) of an average closed-book portfolio in the European market can be improved by up to three to five percentage points. The following five levers can help: operations and IT, investments, capital, technical excellence, and commercial uplift (Exhibit 2). Traditionally, incumbents have focused on operational and commercial levers, often not succeeding in extracting the full potential of other levers, as modernizing digital technology alone can reduce costs in operations or IT and operations by 40 to 50 percent, respectively.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 2]]\n\u003cp\u003ePlayers should reflect on whether they are best positioned to pull these levers themselves or whether partnerships could prove beneficial. Depending on the specific situation of a carrier, insurers could leverage external partnerships in several ways. Some players might consider outsourcing parts of their business, establishing partnerships to reduce balance-sheet exposure by engaging in reinsurance or swaps, or selling a closed book.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eClosed-book consolidators have taken root across geographies\u0026mdash;and may be good partnership options for some life insurers\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen insurers face strategic choices regarding closed books, they should consider the performance of specialized closed-book consolidators. Such entities are either owned by private-equity (PE) companies or independent insurance companies or are part of larger financial holdings.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe profitability picture shifts by line and geography. In Continental Europe, nonlife insurers have outperformed life insurers over the past decade. In the United Kingdom, life insurers\u0026rsquo; total returns to shareholders (TRS) have been higher than that of nonlife insurers during the same period. And in the United States, the performance of life insurers has been comparable to nonlife insurers (Exhibit 3).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 3]]\n\u003ch3\u003eMature markets: United Kingdom and United States\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe United Kingdom stands out with several favorable structural differences affecting life insurer performance. For instance, the UK life insurance market\u0026rsquo;s product offering more closely resembles an asset management market than a traditional life insurance market, and players in both the United Kingdom and the United States typically have a much lower share of high-guarantee savings products in their portfolios compared with Continental Europe.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the United States, mature closed-book market consolidators have achieved significant scale, reducing in-force policy operations costs by 22 percent and technology costs by 41 percent. This trajectory of total cost reduction is visible across many players after the deal has transpired, though such deals have not consistently translated into higher investment margins.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Disruptor1Up dis1]]\n\u003ch3\u003eDeveloping markets: Continental Europe\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn Europe, the operating model of consolidators is often fully focused on the management of closed books. In the less mature German market, consolidators have managed to reduce costs after the acquisition of closed books, though so far the effects have been less visible than in more mature markets.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBased on their operating models, closed-book consolidators seem positioned not only to pull a broad range of performance improvement levers but also to translate the effects into stronger overall performance\u0026mdash;beyond even the individual improvement of isolated levers. Moreover, they can profit from a management team fully dedicated to improving closed-book performance, which is rarely the case at traditional life players with broader strategic agendas.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere is some early evidence that closed-book consolidators can indeed outperform traditional life players and achieve a broader and more sustainable performance improvement. In our experience, insurers can increase the value of a closed-book portfolio, gaining three to five percentage points on ROE, and adopt a tailored retention scheme for the closed-book management team.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eDownload \u003c/em\u003e\u003ca href=\"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial services/our insights/running up on runoff strategic options for life closed books/running-up-on-runoff-strategic-options-for-life-closed-books.pdf\"\u003eRunning up on runoff: Strategic options for life closed books\u003c/a\u003e\u003cem\u003e, the full report on which this article is based (PDF\u0026ndash;1.1 MB).\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Report"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2021-02-10T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":""},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Financial Services"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMarion H\u0026auml;mmerli\u003c/strong\u003e is an associate partner in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Zurich office, where \u003cstrong\u003eDiego Mattone\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner; \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/johannes-tobias-lorenz\"\u003eJohannes-Tobias Lorenz\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e is a senior partner in the D\u0026uuml;sseldorf office; \u003cstrong\u003eNils Jean-Mairet\u003c/strong\u003e is a partner in the London office; and \u003cstrong\u003eThorsten R\u0026ouml;ttger\u003c/strong\u003e is a consultant in the Frankfurt office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors wish to thank Ulrike Vogelgesang and McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s cost benchmarking team for their contributions to this article.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"The growth chessboard: How leaders fuel profitable growth in insurance"},"url":{"path":"/industries/financial-services/our-insights/the-growth-chessboard-how-leaders-fuel-profitable-growth-in-insurance"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"We examined the performance of 46 insurers around the globe to identify the behaviors that the outperformers share."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial services/our insights/the growth chessboard how leaders fuel profitable growth in insurance/gettyimages-498396156-bt-1536x1536.jpg","alt":"The growth chessboard: How leaders fuel profitable growth in insurance"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Future of insurance: Unleashing growth through new business building"},"url":{"path":"/industries/financial-services/our-insights/future-of-insurance-unleashing-growth-through-new-business-building"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"To compete with digital players, traditional insurers should consider building their own new digital businesses. 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