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</span><a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/category/uncategorized">Uncategorized</a><span class="separator"> » </span><span class="last">Terabit Ethernet around 2015</span></p></nav> <article id="post-20056" class="post-20056 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-uncategorized tag-cities tag-united-states" itemtype="https://schema.org/CreativeWork" itemscope> <div class="inside-article"> <div class="featured-image page-header-image-single "> <img width="400" height="225" src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAADhAQAAAADOzd6xAAAAAnRSTlMAAHaTzTgAAAAiSURBVGje7cExAQAAAMKg9U9tDB+gAAAAAAAAAAAAAABuBizTAAGfVbm/AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC" class="attachment-full size-full lazyload" alt="" itemprop="image" decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" data-src="https://nextbigfuture.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2008/04/ultrahidef-1.png" data-srcset="https://nextbigfuture.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2008/04/ultrahidef-1.png 400w, https://nextbigfuture.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2008/04/ultrahidef-1-300x169.png 300w" data-sizes="auto" data-eio-rwidth="400" data-eio-rheight="225" /><noscript><img width="400" height="225" src="https://nextbigfuture.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2008/04/ultrahidef-1.png" class="attachment-full size-full" alt="" itemprop="image" decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" srcset="https://nextbigfuture.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2008/04/ultrahidef-1.png 400w, https://nextbigfuture.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2008/04/ultrahidef-1-300x169.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px" data-eio="l" /></noscript> </div> <header class="entry-header"> <h1 class="entry-title" itemprop="headline">Terabit Ethernet around 2015</h1> <div class="entry-meta"> <span class="posted-on"><time class="updated" datetime="2017-04-07T05:34:03-07:00" itemprop="dateModified">April 7, 2017</time><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2008-04-24T21:39:00-07:00" itemprop="datePublished">April 24, 2008</time></span> <span class="byline">by <span class="author vcard" itemprop="author" itemtype="https://schema.org/Person" itemscope><a class="url fn n" href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/author/brian-wang" title="View all posts by Brian Wang" rel="author" itemprop="url"><span class="author-name" itemprop="name">Brian Wang</span></a></span></span> </div> </header> <div class="entry-content" itemprop="text"> <p><a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/20592/page2/" =blank target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bob Metcalfe (ethernet coinventor) gave a keynote speech, “Toward Terabit Ethernet.”</a> Metcalfe had told his audience not only that optical networks would soon deliver 40- and 100-gigabit-颅per-颅second Ethernet–standards bodies are now hammering out the technical specifications–but also that 1,000-gigabyte-per-second Ethernet, which Metcalfe dubbed “terabit Ethernet,” would emerge around 2015. The move from 100 gigabit ethernet to terabit ethernet could involve an overhaul of the backbone network. Technically feasible but who will pay the up-front costs for these next-颅generation networks? In America, carriers own the pipes, and we don’t really see much competition. </p> <p>George Gilder presented <a href="http://www.humanproductivitylab.com/archive_blogs/2008/01/31/estimating_the_exaflood.php" =blank target="_blank" rel="noopener">an ‘Exaflood’ paper, in which he predicts a zettabyte</a> of U.S. Internet traffic by the year 2015,” 颅Metcalfe said. “Since I admire Gilder, I extrapolated from his prediction.”</p> <p>An exabyte is 10**18 bytes of data; a zettabyte is 10**21 bytes. Metcalfe pointed to video, new mobile, and embedded systems as the factors driving this rising data flood: “Video is becoming the Internet’s dominant traffic, and that’s before high definition comes fully online. Mobile Internet just passed a billion new cell phones per year. Then totally new sources of traffic exist, like the 10 billion embedded microcontrollers now shipped annually.” </p> <p>Herwig Kogelnik indicated that current research had advanced WDM (wavelength division multi颅plexing) technology to a point where economical transmission of 10 channels, each carrying 100-gigabyte-per-second traffic, was now feasible. </p> <p><strong>Components of the Exaflood</strong></p> <p>In the U.S. by 2015:</p> <p> * movie downloads and P2P file sharing could be 100 exabytes<br /> * video calling and virtual windows could generate 400 exabytes<br /> * “cloud” computing and remote backup could total 50 exabytes<br /> * Internet video, gaming, and virtual worlds could produce 200 exabytes<br /> * non-Internet “IPTV” could reach 100 exabytes, and possibly much more<br /> * business IP traffic will generate some 100 exabytes<br /> * other applications (phone, Web, e-mail, photos, music) could be 50 exabytes</p><div class="nextb-last-paragraph" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center; " id="nextb-796730386"> <div data-aaad='true' data-aa-adunit='/339474670/Nextbigfuture_A/InContent_3'></div> <div data-onpage='true' data-adpath='/339474670,3911572/Nextbigfuture_B/InContent_3'></div></div> <p>The U.S. Internet of 2015 will be at least 50 times larger than it was in 2006.</p> <p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/SBEDOGJpqxI/AAAAAAAAAeI/HWqLoIyNjDs/s1600-h/ultrahidef.png" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5192935386039036690" data-src="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/ultrahidef-1.png" class="lazyload" /><noscript><img decoding="async" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/ultrahidef-1.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5192935386039036690" data-eio="l" /></noscript></a><br />Part of the increase will be a move beyond regular high definition television</p> <div class="saboxplugin-wrap" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person" itemscope itemprop="author"><div class="saboxplugin-tab"><div class="saboxplugin-gravatar"><img decoding="async" src="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAGQAAABkAQAAAABYmaj5AAAAAnRSTlMAAHaTzTgAAAAUSURBVDjLY2AYBaNgFIyCUUBPAAAFeAABKXG5/AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==" width="100" height="100" alt="" itemprop="image" data-src="https://nextbigfuture.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/08/brianheadshot.jpg" class="lazyload" data-eio-rwidth="100" data-eio-rheight="100"><noscript><img decoding="async" src="https://nextbigfuture.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/08/brianheadshot.jpg" width="100" height="100" alt="" itemprop="image" data-eio="l"></noscript></div><div class="saboxplugin-authorname"><a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/author/brian-wang" class="vcard author" rel="author"><span class="fn">Brian Wang</span></a></div><div class="saboxplugin-desc"><div itemprop="description"><p>Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.</p> <p>Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.</p> <p>A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts.聽 He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.</p> </div></div><div class="clearfix"></div><div class="saboxplugin-socials "><a title="Linkedin" target="_self" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-wang-93645/" rel="nofollow noopener" class="saboxplugin-icon-grey"><svg aria-hidden="true" class="sab-linkedin" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 448 512"><path fill="currentColor" d="M100.3 480H7.4V180.9h92.9V480zM53.8 140.1C24.1 140.1 0 115.5 0 85.8 0 56.1 24.1 32 53.8 32c29.7 0 53.8 24.1 53.8 53.8 0 29.7-24.1 54.3-53.8 54.3zM448 480h-92.7V334.4c0-34.7-.7-79.2-48.3-79.2-48.3 0-55.7 37.7-55.7 76.7V480h-92.8V180.9h89.1v40.8h1.3c12.4-23.5 42.7-48.3 87.9-48.3 94 0 111.3 61.9 111.3 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