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}); </script> </div> <div id="div-hre-Ballotpedia---New-3053" class="publirAds"> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.pubads().addEventListener('slotRenderEnded', function(event) { if (event.slot.getSlotElementId() == "div-hre-Ballotpedia---New-3053") { googletag.display("div-hre-Ballotpedia---New-3053"); } }); }); </script> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-md-offset-0 col-md-12" role="main"> <div class="mw-body" id="content"> <div id="mw-js-message" style="display:none;" ></div> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading page-header" lang="en"><span dir="auto"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Ballotpedia's Polling Indexes</span></span></h1>  <div id="bodyContent"> <div id="siteSub">From Ballotpedia</div> <div id="contentSub" ></div> <div id="jump-to-nav" class="mw-jump"> Jump to: <a href="#mw-navigation">navigation</a>, <a href="#p-search">search</a> </div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content mw-content-ltr" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="mw-parser-output"><p><a name="top"></a> </p> <div style="font-size:180%;line-height:2em;font-weight:bold;width:80%;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;text-align:center;"> <p>Ballotpedia's polling averages as of November 22, 2024: </p> <dl><dd>Presidential approval: <span style="color:#f0a236;">42%</span></dd> <dd>Congressional approval: <span style="color:#f0a236;">25%</span></dd> <dd>Direction of country: <span style="color:#f0a236;">27%</span></dd> <dd>Generic congressional vote: <span style="color:#f0a236;">N/A</span></dd></dl> <p style="font-size:50%;font-style:italic;font-weight:normal;line-height:1em;">Results are updated daily by 9:30 a.m. EST and aggregated from the most recent polls from the sources listed in the methodology section below. Think we're missing something? <a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="mailto:editor@ballotpedia.org">Email us</a>.</p> </div> <p><br /> </p><p>This page covers opinion polling averages during the Biden administration. For details on opinion polling during the Trump administration, click <a href="/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Opinion_polling_during_the_Trump_administration" title="Ballotpedia's Polling Index: Opinion polling during the Trump administration"><b>here</b></a>. For a comparison of opinion polling under the Trump and Biden administrations, click <a href="/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Comparison_of_opinion_polling_during_the_Trump_and_Biden_administrations" title="Ballotpedia's Polling Index: Comparison of opinion polling during the Trump and Biden administrations"><b>here</b></a>. </p> <ul><li>The presidential approval rating indicates public satisfaction in the job performance of the <a href="/President_of_the_United_States" title="President of the United States">president of the United States</a>.</li> <li>The congressional approval rating indicates public satisfaction in the job performance of the members of the <a href="/United_States_Congress" title="United States Congress">United States Congress</a>.</li> <li>The direction of country rating indicates public opinion as to whether the United States is moving in the right or wrong direction.</li></ul> <div id="toc" class="toc" role="navigation" aria-labelledby="mw-toc-heading"><input type="checkbox" role="button" id="toctogglecheckbox" class="toctogglecheckbox" style="display:none" /><div class="toctitle" lang="en" dir="ltr"><h2 id="mw-toc-heading">Contents</h2><span class="toctogglespan"><label class="toctogglelabel" for="toctogglecheckbox"></label></span></div> <ul> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-1"><a href="#Data"><span class="tocnumber">1</span> <span class="toctext">Data</span></a> <ul> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-2"><a href="#Current_polls"><span class="tocnumber">1.1</span> <span class="toctext">Current polls</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-3"><a href="#Past_results"><span class="tocnumber">1.2</span> <span class="toctext">Past results</span></a> <ul> <li class="toclevel-3 tocsection-4"><a href="#Presidential_approval"><span class="tocnumber">1.2.1</span> <span class="toctext">Presidential approval</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-3 tocsection-5"><a href="#Congressional_approval"><span class="tocnumber">1.2.2</span> <span class="toctext">Congressional approval</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-3 tocsection-6"><a href="#Direction_of_country"><span class="tocnumber">1.2.3</span> <span class="toctext">Direction of country</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-3 tocsection-7"><a href="#Generic_congressional_vote"><span class="tocnumber">1.2.4</span> <span class="toctext">Generic congressional vote</span></a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-8"><a href="#Methodology"><span class="tocnumber">2</span> <span class="toctext">Methodology</span></a> <ul> <li class="toclevel-2"><a href="#Sources"><span class="tocnumber">2.1</span> <span class="toctext">Sources</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-2"><a href="#Questions"><span class="tocnumber">2.2</span> <span class="toctext">Questions</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-2"><a href="#Understanding_polling"><span class="tocnumber">2.3</span> <span class="toctext">Understanding polling</span></a> <ul> <li class="toclevel-3"><a href="#Contact_method"><span class="tocnumber">2.3.1</span> <span class="toctext">Contact method</span></a> <ul> <li class="toclevel-4"><a href="#Contact_methods_of_featured_polls"><span class="tocnumber">2.3.1.1</span> <span class="toctext">Contact methods of featured polls</span></a></li> </ul> </li> <li class="toclevel-3"><a href="#The_sample_and_margin_of_error"><span class="tocnumber">2.3.2</span> <span class="toctext">The sample and margin of error</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-3"><a href="#Question_framing"><span class="tocnumber">2.3.3</span> <span class="toctext">Question framing</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-3"><a href="#Trust_in_sources"><span class="tocnumber">2.3.4</span> <span class="toctext">Trust in sources</span></a> <ul> <li class="toclevel-4"><a href="#Trust_levels_in_polling_sources_by_ideology"><span class="tocnumber">2.3.4.1</span> <span class="toctext">Trust levels in polling sources by ideology</span></a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-9"><a href="#See_also"><span class="tocnumber">2.4</span> <span class="toctext">See also</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-10"><a href="#Footnotes"><span class="tocnumber">2.5</span> <span class="toctext">Footnotes</span></a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> <h1><span class="mw-headline" id="Data">Data</span></h1> <center><iframe title="Daily national approval/opinion ratings (2021-2025)" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-lz85x" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lz85x/605/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="600"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); </script></center> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Current_polls">Current polls</span></h2> <p><style> .current-polls-table { font-size:90%; border-collapse:collapse; width:70%; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto; } .current-polls-table tr,td { border:1px solid #919191; padding:0.25em; } .current-polls-table th { background-color:#f0a236; font-weight:normal; border:1px solid black; text-align:center; } .poll-average-row { background-color:#e8e8e8;font-weight:bold; } </style> <i>Polls included in Ballotpedia polling indexes, as of November 22, 2024</i> </p><table class="current-polls-table"><tbody><tr><th width="15%">Type</th><th width="25%">Source</th><th width="15%">Date range</th><th width="10%">Positive result</th><th width="10%">Negative result</th><th width="15%">Sample size</th><th width="10%">Margin of error</th></tr><tr class="poll-average-row"><td colspan="3" style="text-align:right;">Pres. Approval (average):</td><td>42%</td><td>55%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="poll-average-row"><td colspan="3" style="text-align:right;">Cong. Approval (average):</td><td>25%</td><td>60%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr class="poll-average-row"><td colspan="3" style="text-align:right;">Dir. Country (average):</td><td>27%</td><td>62%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Pres. Approval</td><td><a href="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/biden_approval_index_history">Rasmussen Reports</a></td><td>11/17-11/21</td><td>45%</td><td>54%</td><td>1,500 likely voters</td><td>+/-3%</td></tr><tr><td>Pres. Approval</td><td><a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_WloY87T.pdf">Economist/YouGov</a></td><td>11/17-11/19</td><td>43%</td><td>55%</td><td>1,435 registered voters</td><td>+/-3.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Pres. Approval</td><td><a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-11/Ipsos%20Core%20Political%2011%2004%202024%20PDF_1.pdf">Ipsos</a></td><td>11/1-11/3</td><td>37%</td><td>57%</td><td>1,242 adults</td><td>+/-3%</td></tr><tr><td>Pres. Approval</td><td><a href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-national-poll-trump-and-harris-remain-locked-in-tight-race/">Emerson College</a></td><td>10/30-11/2</td><td>40%</td><td>53%</td><td>1,000 registered voters</td><td>+/-3%</td></tr><tr><td>Pres. Approval</td><td><a href="https://elections.harrisx.com/public/HX_Forbes_Poll_Nov_2_24_3Day.html">Forbes/HarrisX</a></td><td>10/30-11/2</td><td>41%</td><td>57%</td><td>3,759 likely voters</td><td>+/-1.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Pres. Approval</td><td><a href="https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/u-s-presidential-contest-november-2024/">NPR/PBS/Marist</a></td><td>10/31-11/2</td><td>43%</td><td>54%</td><td>1,297 registered voters</td><td>+/-3.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Pres. Approval</td><td><a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/787484182/full-yahoo-20241101">Yahoo! News/YouGov</a></td><td>10/29-10/31</td><td>43%</td><td>56%</td><td>1,074 registered voters</td><td>+/-2.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Generic Congressional Vote</td><td><a href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-national-poll-trump-and-harris-remain-locked-in-tight-race/">Emerson College</a></td><td>10/30-11/2</td><td>48%</td><td>47%</td><td>1,000 registered voters</td><td>+/-3%</td></tr><tr><td>Generic Congressional Vote</td><td><a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25265231-nbc-november-2024-poll">NBC News</a></td><td>10/30-11/2</td><td>47%</td><td>46%</td><td>1,000 registered voters</td><td>+/-3.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Generic Congressional Vote</td><td><a href="https://elections.harrisx.com/public/HX_Forbes_Poll_Nov_2_24_3Day.html">Forbes/HarrisX</a></td><td>10/30-11/2</td><td>46%</td><td>46%</td><td>3,759 likely voters</td><td>+/-1.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Generic Congressional Vote</td><td><a href="https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/u-s-presidential-contest-november-2024/">NPR/PBS/Marist</a></td><td>10/31-11/2</td><td>50%</td><td>48%</td><td>1,297 registered voters</td><td>+/-3.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Generic Congressional Vote</td><td><a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/787484182/full-yahoo-20241101">Yahoo! News/YouGov</a></td><td>10/29-10/31</td><td>48%</td><td>45%</td><td>1,074 registered voters</td><td>+/-2.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Generic Congressional Vote</td><td><a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_NgtZTja.pdf">Economist/YouGov</a></td><td>10/26-10/29</td><td>47%</td><td>46%</td><td>1,312 likely voters</td><td>+/-3.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Dir. Country</td><td><a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_WloY87T.pdf">Economist/YouGov</a></td><td>11/17-11/19</td><td>30%</td><td>57%</td><td>1,435 registered voters</td><td>+/-3.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Dir. Country</td><td><a href="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/right_direction_wrong_track_may20">Rasmussen Reports</a></td><td>11/10-11/14</td><td>31%</td><td>60%</td><td>2,015 likely voters</td><td>+/-2%</td></tr><tr><td>Dir. Country</td><td><a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-11/Ipsos%20Core%20Political%2011%2004%202024%20PDF_1.pdf">Ipsos</a></td><td>11/1-11/3</td><td>17%</td><td>64%</td><td>1,242 adults</td><td>+/-3%</td></tr><tr><td>Dir. Country</td><td><a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25265231-nbc-november-2024-poll">NBC News</a></td><td>10/30-11/2</td><td>27%</td><td>66%</td><td>1,000 registered voters</td><td>+/-3.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Dir. Country</td><td><a href="https://elections.harrisx.com/public/HX_Forbes_Poll_Nov_2_24_3Day.html">Forbes/HarrisX</a></td><td>10/30-11/2</td><td>25%</td><td>64%</td><td>3,759 likely voters</td><td>+/-1.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Dir. Country</td><td><a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/787484182/full-yahoo-20241101">Yahoo! News/YouGov</a></td><td>10/29-10/31</td><td>29%</td><td>62%</td><td>1,074 registered voters</td><td>+/-2.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Cong. Approval</td><td><a href="https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_IHMRRoV.pdf">Economist/YouGov</a></td><td>11/9-11/12</td><td>18%</td><td>57%</td><td>1,557 registered voters</td><td>+/-3.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Cong. Approval</td><td><a href="https://elections.harrisx.com/public/HX_Forbes_Poll_Nov_2_24_3Day.html">Forbes/HarrisX</a></td><td>10/30-11/2</td><td>31%</td><td>62%</td><td>3,759 likely voters</td><td>+/-1.5%</td></tr></tbody></table> <p class="mw-empty-elt"></p> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Past_results">Past results</span></h2> <h3><span class="mw-headline" id="Presidential_approval">Presidential approval</span></h3> <p class="mw-empty-elt"></p><center><iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSX7kY7JusLuIxSGXLn_QxJniGLCwR_E5oLhcEG_jzNgRrA7W9aUvfjRyFp7NqO3cYFoKLnlBiQekhI/pubhtml?gid=620533286&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="90%" height="300px"></iframe></center> <p class="mw-empty-elt"></p> <h3><span class="mw-headline" id="Congressional_approval">Congressional approval</span></h3> <p class="mw-empty-elt"></p><center><iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSX7kY7JusLuIxSGXLn_QxJniGLCwR_E5oLhcEG_jzNgRrA7W9aUvfjRyFp7NqO3cYFoKLnlBiQekhI/pubhtml?gid=1153627817&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="90%" height="300px"></iframe></center> <p class="mw-empty-elt"></p> <h3><span class="mw-headline" id="Direction_of_country">Direction of country</span></h3> <p class="mw-empty-elt"></p><center><iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSX7kY7JusLuIxSGXLn_QxJniGLCwR_E5oLhcEG_jzNgRrA7W9aUvfjRyFp7NqO3cYFoKLnlBiQekhI/pubhtml?gid=506366853&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="90%" height="300px"></iframe></center> <p class="mw-empty-elt"></p> <h3><span class="mw-headline" id="Generic_congressional_vote">Generic congressional vote</span></h3> <p class="mw-empty-elt"></p><center><iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSX7kY7JusLuIxSGXLn_QxJniGLCwR_E5oLhcEG_jzNgRrA7W9aUvfjRyFp7NqO3cYFoKLnlBiQekhI/pubhtml?gid=947950052&single=true&widget=true&headers=false" width="90%" height="300px"></iframe></center> <p class="mw-empty-elt"></p> <h1><span class="mw-headline" id="Methodology">Methodology</span></h1> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Sources">Sources</span></h2> <p>For Ballotpedia's presidential approval, congressional approval, direction of the country, and generic congressional ballot polling results, we take an average of the most recent polls (from the last 30 days, with some exceptions for major news events) on one or more of these topics conducted by the following sources: </p> <ul><li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.cbsnews.com/feature/cbs-news-polls/">CBS News</a> (or CBS News and The New York Times)</li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://today.yougov.com/news/categories/economist/">The Economist / YouGov</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/index.html">Fox News</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.gallup.com/topic/politics.aspx">Gallup</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.pewresearch.org/data/">Pew Research</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://poll.qu.edu/">Quinnipiac University</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/">Rasmussen Reports</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/reuters-polls/">Reuters / Ipsos</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10741.php">USA Today / Suffolk University</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://graphics.wsj.com/wsjnbcpoll/">The Wall Street Journal / NBC</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/?utm_term=.b30392be21e4">The Washington Post / ABC</a></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.politico.com/tag/politico-morning-consult-poll">Politico/Morning Consult</a> <i><small>(added March 6, 2017)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-presidential-approval-direction-of-country/">Investors' Business Daily/TechnoMetrica (IBD/TIPP)</a> <i><small>(added April 4, 2017)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/">Public Policy Polling</a> <i><small>(added April 10, 2017)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://maristpoll.marist.edu/">The Marist Poll</a> <i><small>(added September 19, 2017)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/">Monmouth University</a> <i><small>(added September 21, 2017)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.cnn.com/">CNN</a> <i><small>(added September 22, 2017)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.emerson.edu/communication-studies/emerson-college-polling-society/latest-polls">Emerson College</a> <i><small>(added January 12, 2018)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://harvardharrispoll.com/">Harvard-Harris Poll</a> <i><small>(added February 22, 2018)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.grinnell.edu/poll">Grinnell College</a><i><small>(added September 12, 2018)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://scottrasmussen.com/category/poll_results/">ScottRasmussen.com</a><i><small>(added September 14, 2018)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.newsnationnow.com/polls">NewsNation</a><i><small>(added June 7, 2023)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://civiqs.com/">Civiqs</a><i><small>(added June 15, 2023)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://harrisx.com/">Harris X</a><i><small>(added June 16, 2023)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/explore/topic/Yahoo_News_YouGov_polls">Yahoo! News / YouGov</a><i><small>(added July 21, 2023)</small></i></li> <li><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/times-siena-poll-coverage"><i>The New York Times</i> / Siena</a><i><small>(added March 4, 2024)</small></i></li></ul> <p>Ballotpedia chose to include polls from these organizations in our averages because we regard their methodologies as broadly trustworthy and reliable. If you know of other outlets who do aggregate polling on these topics, <a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="mailto:editor@ballotpedia.org">email us</a>. We average the results and show all polling results side-by-side because we believe that paints a clearer picture of public opinion than any individual poll can provide. The data is updated daily as new polling results from the above sources are published. </p><p><br /> </p> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Questions">Questions</span></h2> <p>Typical poll questions asked either online or by phone include:<br /> </p><p><b>Presidential approval</b> </p> <ul><li>"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?"<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1">[1]</a></sup></li> <li>"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama has handled his job as president?"<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2">[2]</a></sup></li> <li>Some polls also allow respondents more than two options, such as <i>Strongly Approve</i>, <i>Somewhat Approve</i>, <i>Somewhat Disapprove</i>, or <i>Strongly Disapprove</i>.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3">[3]</a></sup></li></ul> <p><b>Congressional approval</b> </p> <ul><li>"Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the United States Congress is handling its job?"<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4">[4]</a></sup></li> <li>"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?"<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5">[5]</a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6">[6]</a></sup></li></ul> <p><b>Direction of country</b> </p> <ul><li>"Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?"<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7">[7]</a></sup></li> <li>"All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?"<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8">[8]</a></sup></li> <li>"Would you say things in this country today are generally headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track?"<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9">[9]</a></sup></li></ul> <p><b>Generic congressional ballot</b> </p> <ul><li>"If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?"<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10">[10]</a></sup></li> <li>"Thinking about the elections in 2018, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in the district where you live?"<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11">[11]</a></sup></li> <li>"What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s congressional elections—a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?"<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12">[12]</a></sup></li></ul> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Understanding_polling">Understanding polling</span></h2> <p>Below we briefly highlight three aspects of public polling that illustrate both the complexity of polling and how polls tend to differ from one another. Understanding these concepts is key to interpreting what polls mean and underscores the value of aggregating polling results. </p> <h3><span class="mw-headline" id="Contact_method">Contact method</span></h3> <p>Pollsters use a variety of different methods to contact potential survey participants. From the 1930s to the 1980s, pollsters generally did their work through direct contact: going door-to-door, a remarkably expensive and time-consuming method.<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13">[13]</a></sup> Nowadays, pollsters rely upon telephones and the internet. Neither of these approaches comes without challenges. Fewer Americans today, for example, live in households with landlines than they did 20 or even 10 years ago. On the other hand, not every American—particularly in older generations—has a cell phone. To get around this, many pollsters call a combination of landlines and cellphones for a survey. An additional problem is that, with the rise of caller-ID, fewer people pick up the phone to participate in surveys—part of a systemic problem in the modern polling industry known as the response rate. Some pollsters have to looked to the internet as a workaround for this issue, but analysts continue to debate the accuracy and dependability of online polls.<sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14">[14]</a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-five_15-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-five-15">[15]</a></sup> </p><p>A study by <i>FiveThirtyEight</i> found that variances in polls about President Trump's favorability stemmed primarily from the collection method. Polls of registered or likely voters tended to be more favorable to Trump than those that polled adults generally. Automated or online polls also resulted in more favorable rankings than those conducted with live phone calls. The data for these findings was taken from polls conducted between Feb. 1 and Feb. 19, 2017.<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-16">[16]</a></sup> </p><p>There are also differences among polling firms in who contacts the participants. Some phone-based surveys use live-interviewers, while others use automated interactive voice responders.<sup id="cite_ref-five_15-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-five-15">[15]</a></sup> </p> <h4><span class="mw-headline" id="Contact_methods_of_featured_polls">Contact methods of featured polls</span></h4> <center><table class="wikitable" width="60%"><tbody><tr><th width="50%">Source</th><th>Contact method</th><th><i>FiveThirtyEight</i> Grade*</th></tr> <tr><td>CBS News</td><td>Live phone</td><td>N/A</td></tr> <tr><td>The Economist / YouGov</td><td>Online</td><td>B+</td></tr> <tr><td>Fox News</td><td>Live phone</td><td>A</td></tr> <tr><td>Gallup</td><td>Live phone</td><td>B+</td></tr> <tr><td>Pew Research</td><td>Live phone</td><td>B/C</td></tr> <tr><td>Quinnipiac University</td><td>Live phone</td><td>A-</td></tr> <tr><td>Rasmussen Reports (Pres. Approval)</td><td>Automated phone + online</td><td>B</td></tr> <tr><td>Rasmussen Reports (Direction of Country)</td><td>Automated phone</td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Reuters / Ipsos</td><td>Online</td><td>B-</td></tr> <tr><td>USA Today / Suffolk University</td><td>Live phone</td><td>A-</td></tr> <tr><td>The Wall Street Journal / NBC</td><td>Live phone</td><td>B+</td></tr> <tr><td>The Washington Post / ABC</td><td>Live phone</td><td>A</td></tr> <tr><td>Politico/Morning Consult</td><td>Online</td><td>B-</td></tr> <tr><td>Investor's Business Daily/TechnoMetrica (IBD/TIPP)</td><td>Phone</td><td>A-</td></tr> <tr><td>Public Policy Polling</td><td>Phone + online</td><td>A-</td></tr> <tr><td>The Marist Poll</td><td>Live phone</td><td>A</td></tr> <tr><td>Monmouth University</td><td>Live phone</td><td>A</td></tr> <tr><td>CNN</td><td>Live phone</td><td>C</td></tr> <tr><td>Harvard Harris</td><td>Online</td><td>N/A</td></tr> <tr><td>Emerson College</td><td>Phone</td><td>A-</td></tr> </tbody></table> </center> <p>*<i>Last updated March 2023. FiveThirtyEight</i> pollster ratings were calculated based on historical accuracy in predicting elections, sample sizes, methodology, etc. <a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/">Find out more here</a>. </p> <h3><span class="mw-headline" id="The_sample_and_margin_of_error">The sample and margin of error</span></h3> <p>Pollsters can’t realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a <b>representative sample</b>—usually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individuals—that accurately represents the country’s population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the country’s estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented. </p><p>Samples are also where <b>margins of error</b> (MoE) come into play. The <b>MoE</b> describes the potential range of variation for a poll’s results in the context of its representative sample and the actual population. For example, if a poll with a margin of error of 3 percentage points showed that 47 percent of respondents approve of candidate X, that means the pollster believes, based on the representative sample in the poll, anywhere between 44 and 50 percent of the actual population approves of candidate X. Generally speaking, a larger sample size means a smaller MoE, while a smaller sample size means a larger MoE. Other factors, such as the poll’s design, probability formulas, and weighting methods, can also affect MoE.<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17">[17]</a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18">[18]</a></sup> </p> <h3><span class="mw-headline" id="Question_framing">Question framing</span></h3> <p>Though all polling firms, in general, are after the same goal—to find out what the public thinks about a given topic or issue—they don’t always ask their questions the same way. Studies have found that differences in how questions are worded—even subtle differences—can lead to a range of results. In 2003, for example, Pew Research found that when they asked respondents if they “favor or oppose taking military action in Iraq to end Saddam Hussein’s rule,” a total of 68 percent responded that they favor military action. But when Pew added to the end of that question, “... even if it meant that U.S. forces might suffer thousands of casualties,” 43 percent responded in favor of military action.<sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-19">[19]</a></sup> </p><p>The number of possible answers that pollsters provide to respondents has also been known to produce different results. With questions about presidential approval and disapproval, for instance, some firms only give respondents the options of saying approve or disapprove. Other firms, however, give respondents more flexibility by allowing them to respond with answers such as “strongly approve” or “somewhat disapprove.” Again, these slight differences have historically led to differing results among polling firms.<sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-20">[20]</a></sup> </p> <h3><span class="mw-headline" id="Trust_in_sources">Trust in sources</span></h3> <p>Public perception of the various sources cited here varies. <i>Pew Research</i> published a study on this topic in 2020, detailing how members of various idealogical groups (conservatives and liberals) trusted or distrusted popular media organizations. The results from this study for the news organizations included in Ballotpedia's polling data are listed below. By providing a variety of sources of polling results side-by-side, we hope to mitigate the influence of potential bias. All of the major news sources selected for Ballotpedia's polling index were rated as more trusted than distrusted in the overall results from all respondents.<sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-21">[21]</a></sup> </p> <h4><span class="mw-headline" id="Trust_levels_in_polling_sources_by_ideology">Trust levels in polling sources by ideology</span></h4> <p><i>The following chart includes data found in a 2022 survey by YouGov. <a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/04/05/trust-media-2022-where-americans-get-news-poll">Full results are available here</a>.</i> </p><p><iframe title="Trust in media organizations among Democrats and Republicans" aria-label="Range Plot" id="datawrapper-chart-sYWC4" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/sYWC4/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="331" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}(); </script> </p><p>For questions on polls and methodology, email: <a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="mailto:editor@ballotpedia.org">editor@ballotpedia.org</a>. </p> <div id="stopHeaderTabs" style="display:none;"></div> <p class="mw-empty-elt"></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="#top"><u>Back to top</u></a></p> <p class="mw-empty-elt"></p> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1548351761485-0"><script>googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display("div-gpt-ad-1548351761485-0"); });</script></div><h2><span class="mw-headline" id="See_also">See also</span></h2> <p><b>Ballotpedia daily polling averages:</b> </p> <ul><li><a href="/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Presidential_approval_rating" title="Ballotpedia's Polling Index: Presidential approval rating">Presidential approval</a></li> <li><a href="/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Congressional_approval_rating" title="Ballotpedia's Polling Index: Congressional approval rating">Congressional approval</a></li> <li><a href="/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Direction_of_country_rating" title="Ballotpedia's Polling Index: Direction of country rating">Direction of country</a></li> <li><a href="/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Generic_congressional_vote" title="Ballotpedia's Polling Index: Generic congressional vote">Generic congressional vote</a></li> <li><a href="/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Opinion_polling_during_the_Trump_administration" title="Ballotpedia's Polling Index: Opinion polling during the Trump administration">Opinion polling during the Trump administration</a></li> <li><a href="/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Comparison_of_opinion_polling_during_the_Trump_and_Biden_administrations" title="Ballotpedia's Polling Index: Comparison of opinion polling during the Trump and Biden administrations">Comparison of opinion polling during the Trump and Biden administrations</a></li></ul> <p><b>More on Ballotpedia:</b> </p> <ul><li><a href="/Ballotpedia:About" title="Ballotpedia:About">About Ballotpedia</a></li> <li><a href="/Ballotpedia:The_Tap" title="Ballotpedia:The Tap">The Tap</a></li> <li><a href="/Ballotpedia%27s_Daily_Brew" title="Ballotpedia's Daily Brew">The Daily Brew</a></li> <li><a href="/117th_United_States_Congress" title="117th United States Congress">117th United States Congress</a></li> <li><a href="/Special_elections_to_the_117th_United_States_Congress_(2021-2022)" title="Special elections to the 117th United States Congress (2021-2022)">Special elections to the 117th United States Congress (2021-2022)</a></li></ul> <h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Footnotes">Footnotes</span></h2> <p> <script type="text/javascript"> if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; </script> </p> <div class="references-small"><div class="mobile-columns"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-1">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bk136ee11c/econTabReport.pdf"><i>YouGov</i>, "The Economist/YouGov Poll," August 27-29, 2017</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-2">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/01/18/National-Politics/Polling/question_18432.xml?uuid=qfzBwN11EeaJAmEP5IZ5HA"><i>The Washington Post</i>, "Washington Post-ABC News Poll," January 12-15, 2017</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-3">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/august_2013/obama_approval_comparing_the_numbers"><i>Rasmussen Reports</i>, "Obama Approval: Comparing the Numbers," November 25, 2013</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-4">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qbwwt0gev5/trackingreport.pdf"><i>YouGov</i>, "The Economist/YouGov Poll," January 14-17, 2017</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-5">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.scribd.com/document/336940424/CBS-News-poll-toplines-Donald-Trump#from_embed"><i>CBS News</i>, "CBS News Poll: Expectations for the Trump Presidency," January 13-16, 2017</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-6">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gallup_Congressional_Job_Approval_Jan_4_to_8_2017.pdf"><i>Gallup</i>, "Gallup Poll Social Series: Mood of the Nation," January 4-8, 2017</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-7">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.scribd.com/document/336940424/CBS-News-poll-toplines-Donald-Trump#from_embed"><i>CBS News</i>, "CBS News Poll: Expectations for the Trump Presidency," January 13-16, 2017</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-8">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.scribd.com/document/336831474/17016-NBCWSJ-January-Poll-Final-5-PM-Release"><i>Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies</i>, "NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey," January 12-15, 2017</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-9">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qbwwt0gev5/trackingreport.pdf"><i>YouGov</i>, "The Economist/YouGov Poll," January 14-17, 2017</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-10">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6ote18t1hm/econTabReport.pdf"><i>YouGov</i>, "The Economist/YouGov Poll," August 12-14, 2018</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-11"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-11">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-08-15"><i>Reuters/Ipsos</i>, "Core Political," August 15, 2018</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-12"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-12">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/18570NBCWSJJulyPoll7-22-18Release.pdf"><i>Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies</i>, "NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey," July 15-18, 2018</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-13"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-13">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/101872/howdoes-gallup-polling-work.aspx"><i>Gallup</i>, "How does Gallup polling work?" accessed January 12, 2017</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-14"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-14">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/28/upshot/online-polls-are-rising-so-are-concerns-about-their-results.html"><i>The New York Times</i>, "Online Polls Are Rising. So Are Concerns About Their Results," November 27, 2015</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-five-15"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">↑ <sup><a href="#cite_ref-five_15-0">15.0</a></sup> <sup><a href="#cite_ref-five_15-1">15.1</a></sup></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/live-polls-and-online-polls-tell-different-stories-about-the-election/"><i>FiveThirtyEight</i>, "Live Polls And Online Polls Tell Different Stories About The Election," August 31, 2016</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-16"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-16">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-polls-differ-on-trumps-popularity/"><i>FiveThirtyEight</i>, "Why Polls Differ On Trump’s Popularity," February 20, 2017</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-17"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-17">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/"><i>Pew Research Center</i>, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-18"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-18">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://news.mit.edu/2012/explained-margin-of-error-polls-1031"><i>MIT News</i>, "Explained: Margin of error," October 31, 2012</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-19"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-19">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/questionnaire-design/#question-wording"><i>Pew Research Center</i>, "Questionnaire design," accessed January 12, 2017</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-20"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-20">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703384204575510272945083114"><i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, "When Wording Skews Results in Polls," September 25, 2010</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-21"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-21">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" class="external text" href="https://www.journalism.org/2020/01/24/ideology-reveals-largest-gaps-in-trust-occur-between-conservatives-and-liberals/"><i>Pew Research Center</i>, "Ideology reveals largest gaps in trust occur between conservatives and liberals," January 24, 2020</a></span> </li> </ol></div></div></div>    </div></div> <div class="printfooter"> Retrieved from "<a dir="ltr" href="https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Indexes&oldid=8713163">https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Indexes&oldid=8713163</a>" </div> <div id="catlinks-container" style="display:none"><div id="catlinks" class="catlinks" data-mw="interface"><div id="mw-normal-catlinks" class="mw-normal-catlinks"><a href="/Special:Categories" title="Special:Categories">Category</a>: <ul><li><a href="/Category:Polling" title="Category:Polling">Polling</a></li></ul></div></div></div> <div class="visualClear"></div> </div>  </div> </div> </div> <div id='div-gpt-ad-1548351407491-0'> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1548351407491-0'); }); </script> </div> <div id="div-hre-Ballotpedia---New-3054" class="publirAds"> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.pubads().addEventListener('slotRenderEnded', function(event) { if (event.slot.getSlotElementId() == "div-hre-Ballotpedia---New-3054") { googletag.display("div-hre-Ballotpedia---New-3054"); } }); }); </script> </div> <div class="visualClear"></div> <div class="row" id="footer-links"> <div style="text-align:center; font-size:16px; color:#666; width: 100%;"> <p>Ballotpedia features 556,135 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. 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