宝城期货：焦炭短线波动或加大-我的钢铁网

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<p><strong>现货价格持续下行</strong></p> <p>2月14日，邢台、天津、石家庄、唐山等地部分钢厂开启对焦炭的第九轮提降，计划于2月18日开始执行。待本轮降价落地后，港口准一级湿熄焦平仓价将跌至1490元/吨，对应期货仓单成本约1637元/吨。自2024年10月23日以来，焦炭价格已累计下跌450元/吨。当前，尽管钢厂利润尚可，但焦煤供应宽松，下游复产缓慢，且钢厂焦炭可用天数较去年农历同期偏高，使焦炭现货市场氛围偏悲观，价格持续承压。</p> <p>焦炭作为产能过剩的品种，产量会根据利润灵活调节，且焦化厂在产业链中的定价权较弱。近年来，焦炭期货的重大行情几乎都由上游煤矿端或下游钢厂启动，自身基本面通常无重大矛盾。目前，焦炭中长期基本面受上游焦煤供应宽松和下游钢材需求担忧的拖累。</p> <p>从上游来看，焦煤产量企稳运行，春节后山西煤矿迅速复产，元宵节当周主产区<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>煤炭</a>产量基本恢复正常。尽管外贸煤进口量小幅下滑，但仍处于近几年同期偏高水平，整体焦煤供应高位运行，2025年大概率维持宽松格局，难以给焦炭提供足够的成本端支撑。</p> <p>下游方面，国内地产、基建等传统钢材终端表现低迷。虽然2024年9月央行、财政部等部委出台多项利好政策，但现阶段建材需求仍在止跌回稳过程中，内需担忧尚未消除，外需又面临关税问题以及反倾销调查的压力，年内焦炭需求难言乐观。在上下游双重压制下，焦炭中长期基本面偏空，价格中枢不断下移。</p> <p>不过，“金三银四”期间，经过前期基本面压力的持续发酵，需求边际好转或带动焦炭逐渐止跌。</p> <p><strong>关注内外政策面变化</strong></p> <p>除基本面外，政策面也是当前市场关注的焦点之一。自特朗普胜选以来，多次发表对我国加征关税的言论，并在就职后迅速推进相关政策。2月1日，特朗普签署行政令，对来自中国的商品加征10%的关税，随后又宣称将加征25%的钢<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>关税，并实施“对等关税”政策。这一系列动作虽对我国钢材终端出口影响可控，但对市场情绪产生了一系列影响。此外，今年以来，欧盟、马来西亚、秘鲁、哥伦比亚对我国部分钢铁产品发起反倾销调查，国际贸易形势严峻，给未来焦炭终端需求带来压力。</p> <p>然而，国内政策氛围整体偏暖，叠加焦炭本身估值已处于较低水平，在政策面潜在利多因素下，目前价位焦炭追空风险较大。</p> <p>当前焦炭期货市场存在两条博弈主线：一是中长期偏空基本面与短期需求复苏的博弈，二是内外政策分歧带来的博弈。虽然目前焦炭市场氛围整体偏空，主力合约维持弱势运行，但随着中长期基本面和海外政策的阶段性释放，未来市场关注点或逐渐切换至“金三银四”需求边际修复以及两会政策利好上。因此，投资者在偏空看待焦炭市场的同时，需密切关注需求变化以及政策端情况，及时调整投资策略。（作者单位：宝城期货）</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> 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