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大厂纷纷裁员降薪,德国产业一把手关心这3个问题_搜狐汽车_搜狐网

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src="//q7.itc.cn/q_70/images01/20250220/0dd71bb7184746a491c8068ebc129867.jpeg" max-width="600"></p> <p><strong>编译</strong> / 张霖郁</p> <p><strong>设计</strong> / 师 超</p> <p><strong>来源</strong> / Bloomberg,作者:Stefan Nicola</p> <p>德国汽车工业正面临危机。</p> <p>销量下降,生产成本飙升,使得<span class="keyword-span" data-brandid="197"><a href="https://db.auto.sohu.com/brand_197" target="_blank">大众</a></span>集团、<span class="keyword-span" data-brandid="145"><a href="https://db.auto.sohu.com/brand_145" target="_blank">奔驰</a></span>以及数百家零部件供应商在转型过程中远远落后。</p> <p>近期,大陆集团汽车版块宣布到2026年底将裁员3000个研发职位,约10%的研发人员,其中不到一半在德国。裁员同样发生在大众集团、宝马、博世等公司。</p> <p>随着特朗普(Donald J. Trump)威胁要对德国汽车征收关税,德国汽车制造商们寄希望于即将开始于当地时间2月23日的选举,他们期待新政府能够缓解困境。</p> <p>德国作为欧洲最大的经济体,正经历着工业衰退,这主要是由于中国先进制造业的崛起以及自身的一系列危机,从疫情到俄乌战争引发来自俄罗斯天然气供应的切断所引发能源的高成本。</p> <p>如果后续没有新的刺激措施,德国可能会将数万个制造业岗位拱手让给积极争取投资的低成本国家。</p> <p>“我们现在需要经济转型”,德国汽车工业协会(VDA)主席希贺尔德加德·穆勒(Hildegard Müller)说。她补充说,下一届新的德国政府必须削减繁文缛节,刺激增长,使德国重新变得具有竞争力。</p> <p>德国汽车行业占德国经济的约5%,雇佣了近78万名员工,其前景看似黯淡。</p> <p>车企们现正削减成本,调整产品组合,并更换高层核心人员,以此应对中国日益激烈的竞争以及欧洲对电动汽车需求减弱的冲击,行业士气已降至新的低点。</p> <p>尽管如此,德国各政党尚未提出更大的计划来帮助汽车行业重回正轨。随着选举仅剩数天,以下问题是汽车高管们关注的焦点。</p> <p class="ql-align-center"><img src="//m1.auto.itc.cn/appImage/sohu-default.png" max-width="600" data-src="//q4.itc.cn/images01/20250220/8505d6ba85744682a9e08ec8a6e059c1.gif"></p> <h1 class="ql-align-center"><strong>贸易战</strong></h1> <p>德国生产的汽车大约有四分之三用来出口,这让汽车行业容易受到贸易壁垒增加的影响。</p> <p>特朗普决定从下个月开始对钢铁和铝进口征收25%的关税,这加剧了紧张局势。他还威胁要对加拿大和墨西哥(大众、宝马和奔驰在那里设有工厂)以及欧盟征收惩罚性关税。特朗普当地时间2月18日表示,汽车关税可达约25%。</p> <p>德国汽车高层们多次反对关税,包括针对中国电动汽车的欧盟关税。宝马首席执行官齐普策(Oliver Zipse)本月早些时候称自由贸易是“增长和进步的最重要的驱动力之一”。</p> <p>美国对大型SUV的强劲需求以及其向电动汽车的缓慢转变,使得美国成为宝马、保时捷和梅赛德斯销售高利润内燃机车型的市场。</p> <p>德国车企在美国运营着数家工厂,既为当地消费者生产汽车,也用于出口,这意味着如果欧洲采取反制措施,贸易争端的后果可能会进一步恶化,而这种情况看起来越来越有可能出现。</p> <p>“欧洲将会反击,”法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)股票策略师贝内迪克特·洛(Béneéict Lowe)上周对彭博电视台表示,她预计布鲁塞尔和华盛顿之间的谈判将持续一段时间。</p> <p>德国总理朔尔茨(Olaf Scholz)表示他愿意支持欧洲的应对措施。</p> <p>企业高层们将关注民主党候选人弗里德里希·梅茨(Friedrich Merz),他是朔尔茨的继任热门人选,希望他在当选后采取和解举措。</p> <p>梅茨曾是贝莱德公司(Blackrock Inc.)德国分公司的监事会主席,他对特朗普持较为乐观的看法,称特朗普是“一位非常可预测的领导人”,并拥有明确的目标。</p> <p class="ql-align-center"><img src="//m1.auto.itc.cn/appImage/sohu-default.png" max-width="600" data-src="//q1.itc.cn/images01/20250220/cd915263345542728a72ff356c08fb64.gif"></p> <h1 class="ql-align-center"><strong>高成本</strong></h1> <p>可预测性是行业高管们关注的关键主题,特别是在制造成本方面。他们主要抱怨能源价格,尤其是在俄乌战争后导致德国廉价管道天然气供应受阻,能源价格飙升。德国仍然严重依赖化石燃料来维持电力供应,尤其是在冬季。</p> <p>德国的电价大约是美国和中国的三倍,比邻国法国高出约40%,而法国是依赖数十个核反应堆提供廉价且稳定的能源。</p> <p>所有主流政党都承诺降低能源成本,但他们在如何降低上存在分歧。朔尔茨所在的社会民主党支持增加可再生能源的使用并设定电网费用上限,而梅茨则提出重新考虑德国退出核能的决定。</p> <p>“德国是欧洲少数几个真正工业化国家之一,萨尔茨吉特(Salzgitter)和巴斯夫(BASF)为本国汽车行业供应钢材和化工产品。”总部位于汉堡附近的独立汽车分析师马蒂亚斯·施密特(Matthias Schmidt)表示,“低能源成本或至少价格稳定至关重要。”</p> <p class="ql-align-center"><img src="//m1.auto.itc.cn/appImage/sohu-default.png" max-width="600" data-src="//q3.itc.cn/images01/20250220/44fcbd3d031b4f2dbad6c46f13c61a5d.gif"></p> <h1 class="ql-align-center"><strong>高度依赖中国的风险</strong></h1> <p>中国是大多数德国车企最大的单一市场,过去,它们获得了相当可观的收入和利润。</p> <p>然而,当下正面临激烈的竞争和高端产品消费的疲软,特斯拉、比亚迪等其他本土制造商发起了激烈的价格战。</p> <p>俄乌战争爆发后,朔尔茨政府看到过度依赖俄罗斯天然气的风险,由此看到高度依赖中国的风险,他尝试重新调整与中国的关系,并呼吁德国公司减少在中国的风险,梅茨也发出类似警告。</p> <p>但德国车企正加大在中国的投资,并与当地企业建立合作关系,以夺回市场份额。</p> <p>大众集团在中国运营着超过36家工厂,计划到2030年中国的汽车年销量从2024年的293万辆增加到约400万辆。宝马计划在其沈阳生产基地再投资200亿元人民币(约合27亿美元),以扩大其在中国的电动汽车生产。</p> <p>德国车企正努力应对电动汽车市场的放缓。</p> <p>2024年,德国失去了欧洲最大电动汽车市场的头衔,被英国取代,原因是朔尔茨政府意外取消了补贴,导致销量暴跌。</p> <p>大众和奔驰等主要车企随后调整了他们的电气化战略,理由是需求疲软。保时捷预计今年将因扩大其内燃机和插电式混合动力车型的产品组合而遭受8亿欧元(约合8.37亿美元)的损失。在中国,保时捷的交付量去年下降了28%,这表明向电动汽车的转型对这个豪华品牌来说代价高昂。</p> <p>“保时捷的战略转变传递了一个明确的信息,即依靠汽油驱动的德国汽车可能会获得更长的生命周期,我预计梅茨领导的政府更倾向于这一种举措”,施密特表示。</p> <p>梅茨的保守派希望在计划于2035年实施的欧盟禁令之外,继续销售新的燃油车,而朔尔茨则呼吁通过电动汽车税收激励措施来恢复电池驱动汽车的销售。两党都认为,车企不应该因未能达成欧盟今年更严格的排放目标而被罚以巨额罚款。</p> </body> </html> </div> <div class="keyword-tags"> </div> <p class="statement"> 声明:&nbsp;本文由入驻搜狐公众平台的作者撰写,除搜狐官方账号外,观点仅代表作者本人,不代表搜狐立场。 </p> <p class="line"></p> <a class="return-home" href="//auto.sohu.com" data-psv-tpm="pcarticle.gohome.1" target="_blank"> 回首页看更多汽车资讯 </a> <div class="god-article-bottom" id="god_bottom_banner" data-god-id="15310" style="display: none;"></div> <div class="comment-box" id="commentApp"> <section class="back-comment"> <h3 class="back-comment-head"> <div class="back-comment-head--title">评论(174)</div> <div class="back-comment-head--rule"> 文明上网理性发言,请遵守<a href="#" class="back-comment-head--ruleLink">《搜狐我来说两句用户公约》</a> </div> </h3> <div class="back-comment-publish"> <textarea class="back-comment-publish--textarea" @focus="focusFunc" @blur="blurFunc" 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