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4.2V20z"/></svg></a></li></ul></div><figure class="embed-base image-embed embed-8" role="presentation"><div style="padding-top:99.30%;position:relative" class="image-embed__placeholder"><progressive-image src="https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/670d2647b96b97a0fbbcd449/Forbes2/960x0.jpg?fit=scale" alt="Forbes2" data-height="1836" data-width="1848"></progressive-image></div><figcaption><fbs-accordion><p class="color-body light-text">Lately, the Mag 7 Have Become the Drag 7</p></fbs-accordion><small>EntrepreneurShares LLC</small></figcaption></figure> <p>The Magnificent Seven, led by Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Tesla helped major indices soar to new heights over the past decade. Since early February 2016, the S&P 500 has appreciated 265% while the QQQs nearly doubled that performance at 450%. Chief among the QQQ’s rise has been the tech heavy members of the Magnificent Seven (aka Mag 7). Each of the Mag 7 generated peak returns, that were in some cases, well above the 450% QQQ average. Standouts such as Nvidia (+21,280%), Tesla (+4000% peak return) and mega cap heavyweights, Apple (787% peak return), Microsoft (972% peak return) and Amazon (727% peak return) helped drive the exceptional performance. While the Mag 7 reached record levels, investors cheered. Who would publicly criticize a fund or index that produced exceptional results irrespective of disproportionate weights in only a handful of stocks? But what happens when these same 7 overweight stocks start to falter? Nothing good.</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_1"></div> <div class="article_paragraph_2"></div> <p>The same Newtonian principles that drove stock prices and indexes higher, apply the same magic in reverse. Whatever goes up can come down.</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_2"></div> <p>Seemingly overnight, the Mag 7 have become the Drag 7.</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_3"></div> <p>Much of the appreciation occurs due to Market Cap weighted passive indices that do not easily change the mix of stocks or assigned weights. Consequently, as money flows into various funds, the index constituents are purchased automatically. This pushes the prices and market capitalizations of the stocks, and corresponding indices, higher. This is true irrespective of perceived valuation or price. There is no check or intervention as prices rise. And as more money flows in, the pace of appreciation and momentum rise even faster due to greater weight that the constituents hold. Passive indices hold to their prescribed rules and buy or sell in a pro rata fashion as dollars flow in or out. Although there are some benefits of a passive index, principally competitive, low fees and trading costs, there is an inherent flaw. There is generally no valuation overlay. And just as a few heavily weighted stocks can push an index higher as the prices go higher, the same will happen as heavily weighted stocks fall. This is what is happening now. Heavily weighted Mag 7 stocks are falling, due to active investors selling the stocks, and dragging major passive indices down.</p> <div class="halfway_hardwall_4"></div> <div class="vestpocket" vest-pocket=""></div> <p>The cracks in the impenetrable Mag 7 base begin to appear around July 8, 2024. Since, that time period most of the Mag 7 have fallen. Though market dynamics can change at any time, this should be a concern for many investors in the future.</p><fbs-ad position="inread" progressive="" ad-id="article-0-inread" aria-hidden="true" role="presentation"></fbs-ad> <p>The history of the Mag 7 began many years ago. For a long time the market leaders were referred to as the “FAANGs”. This acronym corresponded with: Facebook (before it became “Meta”), Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. Notable among the missing constituents were Microsoft and Nvidia. This was before Nvidia was recognized as an AI leader. At the time, investors were bullish on Netflix as a Covid stock darling. After Covid, Netflix fell and the moniker “FAANGs” was replaced with the broader grouping of “Mag 7”. Microsoft and Nvidia were added and Netflix disappeared. The Mag 7 proved to be a more powerful mix than the FAANGS. Investors enjoyed a strong bull market rally, and with each year, as more money flowed to passive ETFs, a disproportionate percentage of the funds went back into the Mag 7. Their market capitalizations swelled. Several companies reached $1 trillion market capitalization (META) then quickly became $2 trillion companies (AMZN and GOOGL) and then even faster to $3 trillion market cap valuations (MSFT, AAPL, NVDA). Never before had massive companies reached $1 trillion levels, let alone $2 trillion and $3 trillion. Moreover, the moves beyond $1 trillion moved with unprecedented speed. Money flowed into index funds, which pushed stock prices higher, that continued to replenish a buying cycle that added more buying pressure, which in turn, increased the stock weights of the Mag 7.</p> <div class="recirc-module shopping" data-type="standard"><div class="recirc-module-body recirc-module-body--vetted" id="recirc-unit"><div class="recirc-module-title">MORE FROM<a class="forbes-shop-link" href="https://www.forbes.com/vetted/" target="_self" title="https://www.forbes.com/vetted/" aria-label="FORBES VETTED" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|none|none"><span class="forbes-shop" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|none|none">FORBES VETTED</span></a></div><div class="recirc-articles"><div class="recirc-block-padding"><div class="recirc-content"><a class="recirc-link" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/2024/11/21/snoo-black-friday-sale/" target="_self" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/2024/11/21/snoo-black-friday-sale/" aria-label="This Viral Smart Bassinet Is 30% Off With The Snoo Black Friday Sale" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|637bd3090406eb0001245ff0|1"><h3 class="recirc-headline-no-margin" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|637bd3090406eb0001245ff0|1">This Viral Smart Bassinet Is 30% Off With The Snoo Black Friday Sale</h3></a><a class="recirc-author" href="https://www.forbes.comhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/people/jordanthomas/" target="_self" title="https://www.forbes.comhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/people/jordanthomas/" aria-label="By Jordan Thomas Forbes Staff">By<div class="recirc-author-name">Jordan Thomas</div><div class="recirc-author-type">Forbes Staff</div></a></div><a class="recirc-img" style="background-image:url(https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/673f6b3ca9d540a0ff23e76b/0x0.jpg?width=960);" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/2024/11/21/snoo-black-friday-sale/" aria-label="Graphic This Viral Smart Bassinet Is 30% Off With The Snoo Black Friday Sale" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|637bd3090406eb0001245ff0|1"></a></div><div class="recirc-block-padding"><div class="recirc-content"><a class="recirc-link" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/article/best-black-friday-deals/" target="_self" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/article/best-black-friday-deals/" aria-label="The 50 Best Black Friday Deals So Far, According To Our Deals Editors" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|5f9707dcfcf3570006e54ef8|2"><h3 class="recirc-headline-no-margin" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|5f9707dcfcf3570006e54ef8|2">The 50 Best Black Friday Deals So Far, According To Our Deals Editors</h3></a><a class="recirc-author" href="https://www.forbes.comhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/people/karacuzzone/" target="_self" title="https://www.forbes.comhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/people/karacuzzone/" aria-label="By Kara Cuzzone Forbes Staff">By<div class="recirc-author-name">Kara Cuzzone</div><div class="recirc-author-type">Forbes Staff</div></a></div><a class="recirc-img" style="background-image:url(https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/673e2fdbf465a5ba5aec615d/0x0.jpg?width=960);" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes-personal-shopper/article/best-black-friday-deals/" aria-label="Graphic The 50 Best Black Friday Deals So Far, According To Our Deals Editors" data-ga-track="shopping recirc|More From Forbes Vetted|5f9707dcfcf3570006e54ef8|2"></a></div></div></div></div> <p>Today, only a handful of stocks represent a disproportionate percentage of the weight in indexes with 100 or even 1000 companies. This is dangerous for investors and it violates the basic underlying investment principle of diversification by not putting too many eggs in one basket.</p> <div class="article_paragraph_7"></div> <p>By way of example, only 3 stocks (AAPL, MSFT and NVDA) now comprise 35% of the Russell 1000 Growth index. This is far too heavy and can create major problems for investors when these three stocks drop. Moreover, more than 1/2 or approximately 54% of the Russell 1000 Index now resides in the Mag 7.</p> <script> function loadConnatixScript(document) { if (!window.cnxel) { window.cnxel = {}; window.cnxel.cmd = []; var iframe = document.createElement('iframe'); iframe.style.display = 'none'; iframe.onload = function() { var iframeDoc = iframe.contentWindow.document; var script = iframeDoc.createElement('script'); script.src = '//cd.elements.video/player.js' + '?cid=' + '62cec241-7d09-4462-afc2-f72f8d8ef40a'; script.setAttribute('defer', '1'); script.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); iframeDoc.body.appendChild(script); }; document.head.appendChild(iframe); const preloadResourcesEndpoint = 'https://cds.elements.video/a/preload-resources-ovp.json'; fetch(preloadResourcesEndpoint, { priority: 'low' }) .then(response => { if (!response.ok) { throw new Error('Network response was not ok', preloadResourcesEndpoint); } return response.json(); }) .then(data => { const cssUrl = data.css; const cssUrlLink = document.createElement('link'); cssUrlLink.rel = 'stylesheet'; cssUrlLink.href = cssUrl; cssUrlLink.as = 'style'; cssUrlLink.media = 'print'; cssUrlLink.onload = function() { this.media = 'all'; }; document.head.appendChild(cssUrlLink); const hls = data.hls; const hlsScript = document.createElement('script'); hlsScript.src = hls; hlsScript.setAttribute('defer', '1'); hlsScript.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); document.head.appendChild(hlsScript); }).catch(error => { console.error('There was a problem with the fetch operation:', error); }); } } loadConnatixScript(document); </script> <script class="fbs-cnx"> (function() { function createUniqueId() { return 'xxxxxxxx-xxxx-4xxx-yxxx-xxxxxxxxxxxx'.replace(/[xy]/g, function(c) { var r = Math.random() * 16 | 0, v = c == 'x' ? r : (r & 0x3 | 0x8); return v.toString(16); }); } const randId = createUniqueId(); document.getElementsByClassName('fbs-cnx')[0].setAttribute('id', randId); document.getElementById(randId).removeAttribute('class'); (new Image()).src = 'https://capi.elements.video/tr/si?token=' + '44f947fb-a5ce-41f1-a4fc-78dcf31c262a' + '&cid=' + '62cec241-7d09-4462-afc2-f72f8d8ef40a'; cnxel.cmd.push(function () { cnxel({ playerId: '44f947fb-a5ce-41f1-a4fc-78dcf31c262a', playlistId: '9f914deb-4288-4fd7-b59b-0d4d3ca3c704', }).render(randId); }); })(); </script> <p>Concentration can be a terrific thing when the Mag 7 are rising. For example, in 2023 the Russell 1000 Growth Index generated a return of 42.60% and the Mag 7 contributed 62% of the total performance. It was even more concentrated for the Invesco QQQ which generated a return of 54.85% with 68% of the performance originating from the Mag 7.</p> <p>However, the table below shows what can happen when the heavy concentration in the Mag 7 starts to falter. While the concentration is terrific when the stocks rise, it can be devastating when those stocks start to decline. This is the interesting characteristic that is happening to the Magnificent Seven lately. Some of the constituents are dropping and, more importantly, rather than creating wealth for investors, at least 5 of the 7 members, are starting to lose wealth. The table below illustrates.</p><figure class="embed-base image-embed embed-0" role="presentation"><div style="padding-top:43.74%;position:relative" class="image-embed__placeholder"><progressive-image src="https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/670ada867dbb719b5b6e5e7f/image--8-/960x0.png?fit=scale" alt="image (8)" data-height="1678" data-width="3825"></progressive-image></div><figcaption><fbs-accordion><p class="color-body light-text">Magnificent 7 Performance Since July 8, 2024 to Oct 11, 2024</p></fbs-accordion><small>EntrepreneurShares LLC</small></figcaption></figure> <p>Since July 8, 2024 through October 11, 2024, five of the Mag 7 have fallen and the Tech heavy QQQ index has been negative (-0.66%). The worst performer since July 8, is TSLA (-13.89%), followed by GOOGL (-13.53%), MSFT (-10.55%), AMZN (-5.25%) and AAPL.</p> <p>This has far reaching ramifications for asset allocation among portfolio managers who currently invest in large capitalization, growth-oriented baskets. Despite holding hundreds of stocks in their funds, the preponderance of the equity weights reside among only a handful of securities. Perhaps, equally important, due to the heavy concentrations of just a few securities in an index, pension consultants and other fiduciaries, whose job it is to advise clients, may find that they may soon experience legal exposure by not better diversifying their clients’ portfolios.</p> <p>The Table below shows the performance of the QQQ relative to another Index with a similar correlation to Technology stocks, the Entrepreneur 30 Total Return Index (ER30TR). The ER30TR Index does not hold 4 (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, TSLA) of the Mag 7 and is underweight 2 others (GOOGL, NVDA). In this particular case, the returns for the period July 8, 2024 through October 11, 2024 were a positive 6.7% for the ER30TR while negative 0.66% for the QQQ. (Note: past performance is no guide or guarantee of future performance).</p><figure class="embed-base image-embed embed-4" role="presentation"><div style="padding-top:43.88%;position:relative" class="image-embed__placeholder"><progressive-image src="https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/670ae065aee100e5c681da1c/image--11-/960x0.png?fit=scale" alt="image (11)" data-height="1687" data-width="3838"></progressive-image></div><figcaption><fbs-accordion><p class="color-body light-text">QQQ's Are Negative Since 07/08/2024 to Present (10/11/2024)</p></fbs-accordion><small>EntrepreneurShares LLC</small></figcaption></figure> <p>The returns year to date (YTD) have shown similar results. While the QQQ have generated a solid 20.99% YTD, they fall below the 23.24% SPX (S&P 500) and pale next to the 41.63% for the Entrepreneur 30 (ER30TR). (Note: past performance is no guide or guarantee of future performance).</p><figure class="embed-base image-embed embed-3" role="presentation"><div style="padding-top:45.43%;position:relative" class="image-embed__placeholder"><progressive-image src="https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/670ae03416c07cb08abbe787/image--12-/960x0.png?fit=scale" alt="image (12)" data-height="1746" data-width="3838"></progressive-image></div><figcaption><fbs-accordion><p class="color-body light-text">Major Stock Indexes YTD (through Oct. 11, 2024)</p></fbs-accordion><small>EntrepreneurShares LLC</small></figcaption></figure> <p>Moreover, in the context of longer periods, it is clear that the Invesco QQQ have prospered since January 2023. In the time period January 1, 2023 through October 11, 2024, the Invesco QQQ generated an impressive 87.25% return with exactly 2/3 of the return coming from the Mag 7. This is well above the SPX return of 55.22% and far above the 33.80% return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, the performance could have been much better. As the table illustrates below, the Entrepreneur 30 Total Return Index provided a return of 122.22% during the same time period with a little over 1/3 of its total return coming from the Mag 7. Moreover, the Entrepreneur 30 TR Index had only 21% of its weight coming from the Mag 7 whereas the Mag 7 represent approximately 46% of the Invesco QQQ. In other words, despite the strong performance of the Mag 7, the Entrepreneur 30 TR Index provided 1.4X the return of the QQQ (122% vs 87%) with less than 1/2 the weight of the Mag 7 (compared to the QQQ) and less than 1/2 the performance coming from the Mag 7 (compared to the QQQ). (Note: past performance is no guide or guarantee of future performance).</p> <p><br></p><figure class="embed-base image-embed embed-2" role="presentation"><div style="padding-top:45.15%;position:relative" class="image-embed__placeholder"><progressive-image src="https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/670adfeb6c778f84612e59bd/image--13-/960x0.png?fit=scale" alt="image (13)" data-height="1737" data-width="3838"></progressive-image></div><figcaption><fbs-accordion><p class="color-body light-text">Major Index Performances Since 12/31/2022</p></fbs-accordion><small>EntrepreneurShares LLC</small></figcaption></figure> <p>Is it fair to compare an index with 30 holdings with an index that has 100 holdings? If the holdings were equal weighted, then the answer would be “no”. However, in the case of the Entrepreneur 30TR (ER30TR), the weights in the Mag 7 were only 21% vs 46% for the Invesco QQQ. This means that despite having more constituents in the Invesco QQQ, the weights in the Mag 7 were much more concentrated. Moreover, 2/3 of the total returns in the QQQ were from the Mag 7, whereas only 1/3 of the returns for the ER30TR were from the Mag 7. This means that it is possible to have fewer stocks in an Index, yet have less concentration and greater returns. As a result, many investors are now beginning to seek alternatives to the concentrated nature of the QQQ and Russell 1000 Growth. Could the ER30TR be the new replacement?(Note: past performance is no guarantee or guide to future returns).</p> <p>Overall returns, led by the Mag 7, have generated extraordinary returns for Tech heavy indices over the past few years. But concentration to just a handful of securities becomes dangerous when the heavily-weighted holdings begin to drop. Several popular indices, such as the Russell 1000 Growth and Invesco QQQ have seen their assets under management (AUM) ascend to hundreds of billions of dollars during the past few years. The Russell 1000 Growth is now approaching $100 Billion and the Invesco QQQ are nearing $300 Billion. With each index holding approximately 1/2 its weight in the Mag 7, this implies that 2 indices, control nearly $200 Billion of the Mag 7. Many other funds and indices, as well as private funds, pension funds, SMAs (separately managed accounts) control similar weights. This concentration can be devastating to investors as the Mag 7 decline. Investors are now seeking alternatives and discovering that it may be possible to achieve higher returns with less concentration—at least for certain periods of time. The QQQ have had an extraordinary growth record in raising AUM. If the concentrated Mag 7 continue to falter, replacement indices may soon become prevalent.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please refer to the below disclosures: https://lnkd.in/e29X6rN</p> <div class="newsletter_signup_article"></div></div><div class="sigfile article-body fs-responsive-text"><span>Follow me on </span><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/joel-shulman-13193026/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>. <span>Check out </span>my <a href="https://www.ERshares.com" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">website</a>. </div><div class="bottom-contrib-block"><div class="fs-author-group-wrapper"><div class="contrib-byline"><a class="fs-author-avatar" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joelshulman/" title="Photo of Joel Shulman"><img class="fs-author-image" src="https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/656e4dff8c5a8a0b10e33952/400x0.jpg?cropX1=0&cropX2=288&cropY1=0&cropY2=288" alt="Joel Shulman"></a><div class="contrib-info"><div class="author-wrapper"><a class="author-name contrib-byline-author speakable-author" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joelshulman/" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joelshulman/" aria-label="Joel Shulman" data-ga-track="contrib block byline">Joel Shulman</a></div></div></div><fbs-cordial type="Follow" natural-id="blogAuthorId/blog/author/305468" author-slug="joelshulman" page-position="bottom"><a class="following-label" href="https://account.forbes.com/following" target="blank" title="https://account.forbes.com/following" aria-label="Following"><svg class="fs-icon fs-icon--check-mark" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M10 2.9c-3.9 0-7.1 3.2-7.1 7.1s3.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1-3.2 7.1-7.1-3.2-7.1-7.1-7.1zm-.7 10.3l-3-2.1.7-1 2 1.4 3.4-4.9 1 .7-4.1 5.9z"/></svg><span>Following</span></a></fbs-cordial></div><p class="contrib-bio" data-author-html-description="<p>I embarked on my investment journey at the age of 8, courtesy of my aunt who set me up with a stock broker and arranged for investment reports to be delivered to my doorstep. Since those early days of investing in Alaskan oil, Pan Am, and S. S. Kresge (the precursor to Kmart), my investment expertise has undergone a significant evolution. I earned a Ph.D. in Finance, wrote a best business book (while at Harvard), and launched a series of successful hedge funds, mutual funds and ETFs based on a proprietary Entrepreneur Factor developed as a Professor at Babson College (#1 in Entrepreneurship). After passing the CFA designation, I created a CFA test-prep company that trained over 12,000+ investment professionals in 110+ countries worldwide. I have also worked for the World Bank and helped facilitate capital market development in Central Asian states. I appear frequently on Fox Business, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, WSJ, and Barrons where I discuss Capital Markets, Wealth Creation, Entrepreneurs and Investment strategies. (<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/yMjKCW6WN3fkY0PYUKSjdG?domain=ershares.com">www.ershares.com</a>)</p>"></p></div><div class="article-footer" style="border:;"><ul class="footer-row color-body light-text print-tips"><li><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesstaff/article/forbes-editorial-values-and-standards/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Editorial Standards</a></li><li><a href="https://www.parsintl.com/publications/forbes/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Forbes Accolades</a></li></ul><div class="footer-ad-labeling" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></div></div></div></div><div class="right-rail" article-index="0"><div class="video-placeholder"><div class="video-player inactive" data-nosnippet></div></div><div class="ad-rail"><div class="fbs-ad-wrapper fbs-ad--article-0-rec-wrapper recx-alignment"><fbs-ad ad-id="article-0-rec" batched position="rec"></fbs-ad></div><div class="fbs-ad-wrapper 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