Search results for: Berislav 沤muk

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class="card-body"><strong>Frequency:</strong> Monthly</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Edition:</strong> International</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-sm-3"> <div class="card"> <div class="card-body"><strong>Paper Count:</strong> 2</div> </div> </div> </div> <h1 class="mt-3 mb-3 text-center" style="font-size:1.6rem;">Search results for: Berislav 沤muk</h1> <div class="card publication-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">2</span> Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Selected European Countries Using Smoothing Methods</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Ksenija%20Dumi%C4%8Di%C4%87">Ksenija Dumi膷i膰</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Anita%20%C4%8Ceh%20%C4%8Casni"> Anita 膶eh 膶asni</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Berislav%20%C5%BDmuk"> Berislav 沤muk</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> <p>The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.</p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=European%20Union%20countries" title="European Union countries">European Union countries</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=exponential%20smoothing%0D%0Amethods" title=" exponential smoothing methods"> exponential smoothing methods</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=forecast%20accuracy%20unemployment%20rate." title=" forecast accuracy unemployment rate."> forecast accuracy unemployment rate.</a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878/forecasting-unemployment-rate-in-selected-european-countries-using-smoothing-methods" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878/apa" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">APA</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878/bibtex" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">BibTeX</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878/chicago" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Chicago</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878/endnote" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">EndNote</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878/harvard" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Harvard</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878/json" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">JSON</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878/mla" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">MLA</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878/ris" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">RIS</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878/xml" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">XML</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878/iso690" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">ISO 690</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/10000878.pdf" target="_blank" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">PDF</a> <span class="bg-info text-light px-1 py-1 float-right rounded"> Downloads <span class="badge badge-light">3801</span> </span> </div> </div> <div class="card publication-listing mb-3 mt-3"> <h5 class="card-header" style="font-size:.9rem"><span class="badge badge-info">1</span> Modelling Export Dynamics in the CSEE Countries Using GVAR Model</h5> <div class="card-body"> <p class="card-text"><strong>Authors:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=S.%20Jak%C5%A1i%C4%87">S. Jak拧i膰</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=B.%20%C5%BDmuk"> B. 沤muk</a> </p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Abstract:</strong></p> <p>The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spillover effects in the context of globalisation and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.</p> <p class="card-text"><strong>Keywords:</strong> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Export" title="Export">Export</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=GFEVD" title=" GFEVD"> GFEVD</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=Global%20VAR" title=" Global VAR"> Global VAR</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=International%20trade" title=" International trade"> International trade</a>, <a href="https://publications.waset.org/search?q=weak%20exogeneity." title=" weak exogeneity. "> weak exogeneity. </a> </p> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/9997767/modelling-export-dynamics-in-the-csee-countries-using-gvar-model" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Procedia</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/9997767/apa" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">APA</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/9997767/bibtex" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">BibTeX</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/9997767/chicago" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Chicago</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/9997767/endnote" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">EndNote</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/9997767/harvard" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Harvard</a> <a href="https://publications.waset.org/9997767/json" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">JSON</a> <a 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Search results for: Berislav 沤muk