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Mysteel：从原料角度来看当前镀锌管价格运行逻辑-我的钢铁网
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target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>带钢</a>涨幅的三分之一。究其原因，主要是7月属于传统淡季，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010903-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焊管</a>内需比较低迷，而供应相对充足，市场供需矛盾突出，随管厂拉涨，但贸易商出货价格却难以上行。展望八月，宏观政策在释放利好之后，预期对价格的支撑力度减弱，市场交易逻辑转向以限产落地力度和节奏核心的过渡期，八月镀锌管价格是否能延续涨势，笔者从原料角度分析当前镀锌管价格运行逻辑。</p> <p><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>粗钢产量下降或将出现在八月中下旬以后</strong></span></p> <p>据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>7月26日调研结果显示: 唐山主流样本钢厂平均铁水不含税成本为2684元/吨，平均钢还含税成本3511元/吨，周环比上调65元/吨，与7月26日当前普方坏出厂价格3650元/吨相比，钢厂平均盈利139元/吨，周环比增加35元/吨。据Mysteel调研，7月27日调研:通过对全国六城22家主要仓库及港口进行调查统计，本周钢坏仓储库存118.01万吨，周环比增加7.59万吨。</p> <p>另外，近期限产传言迭起，虽然限产措施无官方全局性文件，但限产政策方向已成定局。根据相关信息分析，市场倾向于认同限产或以同比22年产量持平或下降2000万吨为目标。但无论是哪种方案，最终日均粗钢产量较当前均有30万吨以上的降幅。根据历年各地方政府收到通知，到钢厂减产落地至少需要半个月以上的时间。<strong>因此，粗钢产量最快也将于八月中下旬后下降，快速明显减量最早也将于九月份体现。</strong></p> <p><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>带钢产量及库存均呈下降态势</strong></span></p> <p>据Mysteel7月26日调研结果显示: Mysteel全国重点<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>带钢生产企业本周开工率 68.81%，周环比下降2.10个百分点；月环比上升5.01个百分比；产能利用率为 70.90%，周环比下降1.33个百分点 ；月环比上升4.27个百分点；本周钢厂实际产量为 208.23万吨，周环比 减少5.30万吨；月环比 增加4.56万吨；钢厂厂内库存为 42.13万吨，周环比 减少2.05万吨；月环比 减少4.37万吨。 29日本周全国热轧带钢主要市场样本库存总量45.86万吨，较上周降0.32万吨，较上月同期减少7.09万吨，较去年同期减少41.5万吨。唐山热轧带钢样本库存23.1万吨，较上周增0.29万吨，较去年同期减少23.08万吨。本月带钢产量下降，主要集中在小窄带及中宽带规格中，随着限产落地，八月产量有继续减少可能。并且，目前受环保限产政策影响，带钢供应量小幅减少，钢厂发货速度放缓，库存继续维持降库。</p> <p><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>镀锌管利润有所修复</strong></span></p> <p>据Mysteel统计，以天津地区为例，截至7月28日，焊管理论利润空间为100元/吨，周环比增加70元/吨，月环比增加90元/吨，年同比减少40元/吨；镀锌管理论利润为168元/吨，周环比增加84.7元/吨，月环比减少134.4元/吨，年同比减少119元/吨。7月焊管利润一直在盈亏边缘徘徊，直到下旬价格快速上涨后才开始扭亏为盈。唐山发布限产消息，再叠加政治局会议出来多项利好经济政策，使得黑色系期货的大幅反弹，焊管利润才得以修复。</p> <p><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>总结</strong></span></p> <p><strong>从<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0307-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>钢坯</a>角度看来：</strong>唐山环保限产加严，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4262,7073-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁水产量</a>下降、调坯轧钢开工骤减，钢坯基本面供需双降，仓储累库。同时唐山市场价格趋高，部分外地资源存流入预期；供应上，唐山限产，钢坯投放或维持偏低水平；需求上，调坯轧钢开工骤降，短期需求少量，外地资源存流入预期，本地市场竞争优势或降低；成本上，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>三轮提涨，钢坯成本对价格支撑增强。部分区域平控政策出台，平控预期仍存，成材预期或存支撑。综合上述，预计八月钢坯价格或震荡运行，但基本面情况仍需关注。</p> <p><strong>从带钢角度看来：</strong>目前带钢供应有所下降；下游目前恐高心态以及利润亏损影响，厂内库存依旧维持低位，社会库存持续降库，热轧带钢市场供需弱平衡。随着后期限产落地，钢厂供应将继续下降，市场现货资源紧张，但下游观望情绪较为浓厚，成交多以投机为主，因此预计八月全国热轧带钢市场价格或将高位震荡为主。</p> <p><strong>综合看来：</strong>预判镀锌管基本面八月继续边际走差，供强需弱的格局或将延续。七月地方政府新增专项债仅发行 0.2 万亿元，叠加二季度新增专项债发行额度同环比走差: 表明淡季基建项目资金回款问题难以得到改善。虽然华东地区“出梅”后，镀锌管市场需求缓慢增加，但南方多雨天气依旧限制镀锌管需求。<strong>预计八月镀锌管均价较七月下降50元/吨， 但注意但八月下旬粗钢产量出现超预期的下降和市场需求超预期增长带来的价格上升可能性。</strong></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘炳灵 021-26093116 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