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左更：不论全球还是中国，铁矿石均不存在供不应求-我的钢铁网
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<p>他认为，根据对自然资源部2016年发布的国家战略矿产资源品种以及国家发改委2021年发布的有关中国关键性战略矿产资源品种对外依存度的计算，我国铁矿石、锰、铬的对外依存度分别接近83%、100%、90%，超过了石油、天然气、大豆等能源和粮食品种的对外依存度，容易受到产地国、发运港等不可抗力或突发事件方面“风吹草动”的影响，必须长远谋划，积极推进安全保供。</p> <p><strong>铁矿石可采储量足以满足钢铁所需价格高位取决于3方面原因</strong></p> <p>左更介绍，美国地质调查局2023年的数据显示，截至2022年底，全球铁矿资源储量（Reserves）约1800亿吨，平均品位约47.22%。依据美国地质调查局的分析，全球铁矿石可采储量足以满足钢铁生产所需。</p> <p>“不论从全球还是我国的供需层面看，铁矿石均不存在供不应求的情况。”左更论证道，按照“生产1吨<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0305-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>生铁</a>需要消耗1.6吨的铁矿石”来计算，在全球层面，2022年全球铁矿石产量约为23.14亿吨，而全球粗钢产量为18.31亿吨，折合<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石需求</a>量不超过21.7亿吨，铁矿石全球整体供给处于供给充足状态。就我国而言，2022年，我国共生产生铁86383万吨，折合铁矿石需求量约13.8亿吨；同期我国国产铁矿石<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-458-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>原矿</a>产量为96787.3万吨，累计<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>进口铁矿石</a>11.07亿吨，主要<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/datas/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石进口</a>港口库存量2022年年初年末数量差为减少0.22亿吨，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石供需</a>整体仍处于平衡状态。</p> <p>今年的情况亦不例外。2023年1—10月，我国进口铁矿石97584万吨，国内铁矿石原矿产量82576万吨，流入生产环节的铁矿石总供给量约12.1亿吨，完全为同期我国7.4475亿吨的生铁产量提供了充足的原料。如果考虑到港口超1.1亿吨的库存量，2023年中国<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石市场</a>的供需关系依然维持较为宽松的平衡状态。</p> <p>既然如此，为何今年的铁矿依旧保持较高水平？左更认为，主要有3方面原因。</p> <p>一是全球铁矿石成本抬升为铁矿石挺价提供藉口。随着全球优质铁矿石资源不断被开发，接替资源开始入场以后，海外主流矿山的吨矿成本有所增加。澳大利亚AMD数据显示，全球铁矿石平均FOB现金成本从2016年的28.9美元/吨增长至2022年的38.7美元/吨。“矿山的成本大幅上升，所以一定会把这些成本叠加到用户身上。”左更表示。</p> <p>二是期现货市场话语权尽失。通过对2013年10月18日（<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4231-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石期货</a>在大商所上市交易）至2023年10月18日期间大商所合约月均价（折算不含税）与月均价进行对比可以发现，自2018年5月份，大商所允许外资进入铁矿石交易后（2021年2月至8月份国家发改委重拳打击<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石价格</a>期间除外），大商所合约月均价便始在牵着价格走。而在国家重拳出击后，外资便转移至新交所炒作铁矿石高品掉期，这一期间，日价与新交所结算价基本一致。</p> <p>三是挂钩理论使得铁矿石“侵占”铁水每一分利润。根据中国五矿对铁矿石价格与螺纹钢价格的长期测算，钢价上涨时，铁矿石价格按照1吨钢需要1.6吨铁矿石的比例倍速上涨，而当钢价下跌时，铁矿石价格却按照占据钢铁成本46%的比例下跌，进而形成了“易涨难跌”的局面，侵占了钢铁行业利润。</p> <p>锰、铬对外依存度超90%以上，须警惕不可抗力或突发事件的供给冲击</p> <p>左更介绍，2000年以来中国钢铁工业的迅猛发展刺激了全球锰资源的开发与利用，2017年后三元电池材料领域的发展更是使锰的产量向上突破2000万吨平台。“但中国国内锰矿的平均品位只有约21%，矿石类型以碳酸锰矿为主，约占总储量的73%，同时大矿少，小矿多，埋藏深度大，开采难度大。2021年起，中国锰（金属）的对外依存度已经超过90%。”左更表示。</p> <p>根据美国地质调查局的报告，智利、南非、中国、澳大利亚、巴西和乌克兰五国储量合计占比超过94%，仅南非一国就占到全球储量的仅38%。全球的锰资源足够使用，采储比为85，2000年以来，中国贡献了全球主要的锰资源消费缺口。2022年，中国从南非进口锰矿1467.86万吨，占全国进口总量比例的近50%。</p> <p>“南非变成了中国锰资源的一个核心集散地，德班港等起运港的意外情况均会对锰市场产生影响，但影响程度却远没有铁矿石这么剧烈。”左更表示，原因在于，一是供应端和需求端均呈现多元化。供应端相对分散，锰在很多国家都有储量，同时需求端除了钢铁，锰还大量应用在传统干电池和新能源电池等领域，供需两端均未且不易形成寡头垄断的局面。二是在定价机制方面，锰虽属于黑色金属，但整个定价体系更类似于<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>，根据纯金属的百分比和市场各应用领域的供需情况来定价。其中，电解锰能够起到一个很好的价格调节作用，如果硅锰领域供给略显不足时，电解锰可以作为添加剂向硅锰应用偏移；而当硫酸锰不足时，电解锰也可以转向硫酸锰应用领域。正是由于电解锰的宏观中间调节作用，锰行业的各领域的价格波动较铁矿石不算剧烈。</p> <p>美国地质调查局（USGS）数据显示，截至2022年底，在全球铬的可采储量分布中，哈萨克斯坦、南非和印度三国位居前三位，三国储量合计在全球占比超过94%，而从资源量上看，哈萨克斯坦、南非则富集了全球95%以上的比例。</p> <p>左更介绍，铬在我国属于极度稀缺资源，已探明的地质资源量世界排名第12位。根据我国地质勘查的数据显示，我国铬矿资源量约401万吨，远景资源量1142万吨。“若对比USGS的数据，我国铬的经济可采储量仅相当于目前排名全球第51位的嘉能可旗下位于南非的DeGrooteboom矿山的勘探储量，占全球总资源量的0.1%。”他说。</p> <p>“随着中国<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>行业的快速发展，中国对铬资源的进口量逐年递增，带动全球范围内对铬的需求不断增加，我国铬的对外依存度高于99%。”左更表示，“目前，‘南非产铬+中国冶炼’已成为全球铬金属的行业布局。”</p> <p>对于未来的形势，左更认为，中国钢铁工业对经济发展的支撑作用从未减弱。但全球范围内只有中国对铁矿石、锰、铬资源对外依存度如此之高，其中，铁矿石面临“三高一低”（对外依存度高、进口来源度高、相对优质资源寡头垄断度高，而国内铁元素供给能力偏低）问题，锰、铬则更加高度依赖于南非一国，任何不可抗力或突发事件均将对资源的日常稳定供应造成冲击。“因此，未来，我们要通过着力压减粗钢产能，增强相对优质国内铁矿石、锰资源的集中、集约型开发，压减、避免不必要的低附加值或简单加工出口，有效降低资源的对外依存度。同时，必须通过大国外交，对相对集中的航线进行有效护航等措施来解决目前的资源保供问题。”左更建议道。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-2479-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> 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