Updated national climate projections for New Zealand

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field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather?pt=10#filters">Research</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate/research-projects/updated-national-climate-projections-for-aotearoa-new-zealand">Updated national climate projections</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate/research-projects/physics-and-ai-based-high-resolution-climate-projections">Physics + AI climate projections</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/nowcasting-and-short-medium-range-forecasting-solar-and-wind-energy">Nowcasting for solar and wind</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate/research-projects/climate-present-and-past">Climate present and past</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate/research-projects/providing-climate-change-advice-to-new-zealands-regions">Providing climate change advice for NZ</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/forecasting-weather-systems">Forecasting weather systems</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate/information-and-resources/citizen-science-new-zealand-rainfall-monitoring-network">Citizen science - rainfall monitoring</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/serious-games-tool-engage-people">Serious games as a tool to engage people</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather?pt=13#filters">Tools & services</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/climate-change-adaptation-toolbox">Climate change adaptation toolbox</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/weather-and-climate-forecasting-services">Weather and climate forecasting services</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://shiny.niwa.co.nz/drought-forecast/">Drought forecasting dashboard</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/niwa-can-help-you-leverage-updated-climate-projections">Leveraging updated climate projections</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate/our-services/obtaining-climate-data-from-niwa">Climate data</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate/our-services/virtual-climate-stations">Virtual Climate Stations</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate/our-services/climate-mapping">Climate mapping</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/daily-climate-maps">Daily climate maps</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather?pt=All&sort_by=recent#filters">Understanding our climate</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook">Seasonal climate outlooks</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/climate-summaries-0">Climate summaries</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/sea-surface-temperature-update">Sea Surface Temperature Update</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/regional-climatologies">Regional climatologies</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/rainfall/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook">Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update">Island Climate Update</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/el-nino-and-la-nina">El Niño and La Niña</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate/information-and-resources/nz-temperature-record">NZ temperature record</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="layout__region layout__region--second"> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-promoted-page field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="layout layout--onecol"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--content"> <div class="card card--mega-menu"> <div class="field field--name-dynamic-token-fieldnode-link-to-source field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><p class="card__link-to-source"><a class="card__link" href="/climate-and-weather/niwa-can-help-you-leverage-updated-climate-projections">Link to source page</a></p> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-promotion-image field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <img loading="lazy" src="/sites/default/files/styles/card_mega_menu/public/2022_PHOTO_COMP_Skyline_Hookcropped.jpg?h=034a5371&itok=5geu_pYl" width="614" height="409" /> </div> <div class="field field--name-node-title field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><h2> NIWA can help you leverage updated climate projections </h2> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-page-type field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item">Service</div> <div class="field field--name-node-post-date field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item">29 August 2024</div> <div class="field field--name-field-description field--type-string-long field--label-hidden field__item">NIWA is using updated climate projections to help New Zealanders better understand climate-related risks.</div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-content view-id-menu_item_related_content 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Our science prevents property damage and saves lives." class="site__header__menu__link--primary" data-drupal-link-system-path="taxonomy/term/198">Hazards</a> <div class="menu_link_content menu-link-contentmain view-mode-default menu-dropdown menu-dropdown-0 menu-type-default"> <div class="layout layout--twocol-section layout--twocol-section--75-25"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--first"> <div> <div class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><h1 class="menu-link-content__heading">Hazards</h1> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-description field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><div class="menu-link-content__description">Nature can be a destructive force. Our science prevents property damage and saves lives.</div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-link field--type-link field--label-hidden field__item menu-link-content__section-link"> <a href="/hazards"> Explore all </a> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-topics view-id-menu_item_topics view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-f1211b1bc845879d94b512d92458bc9b5ce56e8e8e49be6a562f903e11341480"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-topics view-id-menu_item_topics view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-d06a31c84c0ac991811674093bc2d5691fad66feebfafa8ab0b41cb1e8473982"> <div class="views-row"><div class="taxonomy-term taxonomy-term--type-topic taxonomy-term--view-mode-topic-children-tags ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-topic-children view-id-topic_children view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-85e65a76343b5363f1f9b3788e03753666276149866a88949885bb09c9e468a9"> <div class="topic-tag"><a href="/hazards/coastal-hazards" hreflang="en">Coastal hazards</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-topics view-id-menu_item_related_topics view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-a1030bf561447be3574499addb3edbe287bcbd92b7541fe8d3587cb5b85e4d0b"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-topics view-id-menu_item_related_topics view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-f0d3f70bdcc6d425720b825e426b1ade585ce2a0dcbb0c20cba5b00883280274"> <div class="views-row"><div class="taxonomy-term taxonomy-term--type-topic taxonomy-term--view-mode-topic-related-tags ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/hazards/weather-hazards" hreflang="en">Weather hazards</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/hazards/geological-hazards" hreflang="en">Geological hazards</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-grouped-links field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/hazards?pt=10">Research</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/hazards/future-coasts-aotearoa">Future Coasts Aotearoa</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/hazards/identifying-rip-currents-using-artificial-intelligence">Identifying rip currents using AI</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/hazards/riskscape-software">Riskscape software</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/hazards/ma-te-haumaru-o-nga-puna-wai-o-rakaihautu-ka-ora-mo-ake-tonu">Mā te haumaru ō te wai: Aotearoa flood resilience</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/hazards/research-projects/responding-to-and-preparing-for-extreme-weather-events">Responding to and preparing for extreme weather events</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/forecasting-weather-systems">Forecasting weather systems</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/hazards/tsunami-generated-underwater-volcanoes">Tsunami generated by underwater volcanoes</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/hazards/weather-hazards/river-flow-forecasting">River flow forecasting</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/our-services?subtree%5Btopic%5D=198">Tools & services</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/hazards/coastal-hazards/extreme-coastal-flood-maps-aotearoa-new-zealand">Extreme coastal flood maps for Aotearoa New Zealand</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/coasts/tides/storm-tide-red-alert-days-2025">Storm-tide red-alert days 2025</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/coasts/tide-forecaster">Tide forecaster</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/hazards/sea-level-rise">Sea-level rise</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://shiny.niwa.co.nz/drought-forecast/">Drought dashboard</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/serious-games-tool-engage-people">Serious games as a tool to engage people</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="layout__region layout__region--second"> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-promoted-page field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="card card--mega-menu"> <div class="field field--name-dynamic-token-fieldnode-link-to-source field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><p class="card__link-to-source"><a class="card__link" href="/news/tonga-eruption-confirmed-largest-ever-recorded">Link to source page</a></p> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-promotion-image field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <img loading="lazy" src="/sites/default/files/styles/card_mega_menu/public/2022_10_3D_MODEL_HTHH_parsonskingDSC00900-web.jpg?h=f3f0a9e5&itok=gsi2rTI3" width="614" height="409" /> </div> <div class="field field--name-node-title field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><h2> Tonga eruption confirmed as largest ever recorded </h2> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-page-type field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item">Media release</div> <div class="field field--name-node-post-date field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item">21 November 2022</div> <div class="field field--name-field-description field--type-string-long field--label-hidden field__item">A New Zealand-led team has completed the fullest investigation to date into January’s eruption of the underwater Tongan volcano.</div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-content view-id-menu_item_related_content view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-2f6b71dfb079e9fb4235fa316c9ffdfd737d0533b7783e37b9ad8444d330fa23"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-content view-id-menu_item_related_content view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-46f9e128c53c61d64d808d97e4b7862e1dbfd47ab11013b64edfbf9b711bbf61"> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="site__header__menu__item--primary"> <a href="/coasts-and-oceans" title="NIWA aims to provide the knowledge needed for the sound environmental management of our marine resources." class="site__header__menu__link--primary" data-drupal-link-system-path="taxonomy/term/6203">Coasts & Oceans</a> <div class="menu_link_content menu-link-contentmain view-mode-default menu-dropdown menu-dropdown-0 menu-type-default"> <div class="layout layout--twocol-section layout--twocol-section--75-25"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--first"> <div> <div class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><h1 class="menu-link-content__heading">Coasts & Oceans</h1> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-description field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><div class="menu-link-content__description">NIWA aims to provide the knowledge needed for the sound environmental management of our marine resources.</div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-link field--type-link field--label-hidden field__item menu-link-content__section-link"> <a href="/coasts-and-oceans"> Explore all </a> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-topics view-id-menu_item_topics view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-2ee711a02907119b308720693e087c1e6a0194fe44f28db07e6d80e3a047ee90"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-topics view-id-menu_item_topics view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-1b05980f8cb368545974ae7b4b842606f60a26eaa182c0a8bf087a3da5e70d1f"> <div class="views-row"><div class="taxonomy-term taxonomy-term--type-topic taxonomy-term--view-mode-topic-children-tags ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-topic-children view-id-topic_children view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-b54d399d97760a8df68028d4d01ed780be772cbd86733f3b32b16e87c2c0725f"> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-topics view-id-menu_item_related_topics view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-629790f68b895b41d83230970808d9887305ead732e68491dbd579792d63216d"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-topics view-id-menu_item_related_topics view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-e9e6349c04129842a0b1d259dc6689d610c99e02b87f1d4812fe2f1aa2d346b4"> <div class="views-row"><div class="taxonomy-term taxonomy-term--type-topic taxonomy-term--view-mode-topic-related-tags ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/fisheries" hreflang="en">Fisheries</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/aquaculture" hreflang="en">Aquaculture</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/oceans" hreflang="en">Oceans</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/coasts" hreflang="en">Coasts</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/coasts/estuaries" hreflang="en">Estuaries</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/antarctica" hreflang="en">Antarctica</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-grouped-links field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/research">Research</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/antarctica?pt=10#filters">Antarctica</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/aquaculture?pt=10#filters">Aquaculture</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/coasts?pt=10#filters">Coasts </a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/research?subtree%5Btopic%5D=6145&subtree%5Bsubtopic%5D=158&created=All">Estuaries</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/fisheries?pt=10#filters">Fisheries </a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/oceans?pt=10#filters">Oceans</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/our-services">Tools & Services</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/aquaculture?pt=13#filters">Aquaculture</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/coasts?pt=13#filters">Coasts</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/our-services?subtree%5Btopic%5D=6145&subtree%5Bsubtopic%5D=158">Estuaries</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/fisheries?pt=13#filters">Fisheries</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/oceans?pt=13#filters">Oceans</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/vessels/niwa-vessels">NIWA Vessels</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/coasts-and-oceans?pt=27">Frequently visited</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/aquaculture/yellowtail-kingfish">Kingfish aquaculture</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/hazards/future-coasts-aotearoa">Future Coasts Aotearoa</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/coasts/marine-biosecurity">Marine biosecurity</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/fisheries/ross-sea-toothfish-fishery">The Ross Sea toothfish fishery</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/fisheries/recreational-fishing">Recreational Fishing</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/coasts/marine-identification-guides-and-fact-sheets">Marine identification guides</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/voyages">Voyages</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/coasts/edna-research-and-services">eDNA research and services</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="layout__region layout__region--second"> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-promoted-page field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="layout layout--onecol"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--content"> <div class="card card--mega-menu"> <div class="field field--name-dynamic-token-fieldnode-link-to-source field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><p class="card__link-to-source"><a class="card__link" href="/vessels/voyages/ross-sea-voyage-2025">Link to source page</a></p> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-promotion-image field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <img loading="lazy" src="/sites/default/files/styles/card_mega_menu/public/inline-images/grab_sample_25_01_2025_gert_0.jpg?h=4521fff0&itok=er7lnYBA" width="614" height="409" /> </div> <div class="field field--name-node-title field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><h2> Ross Sea “ACTUATE” Voyage 2025 </h2> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-description field--type-string-long field--label-hidden field__item">RV Tangaroa voyage to the Ross Sea, the ship’s 16th voyage to Antarctica and Southern Ocean.</div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-content view-id-menu_item_related_content view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-5c941e518ab1bdd30c634e0f0c40cf875e36d18cdadcdc165edfc3493c3cc31e"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-content view-id-menu_item_related_content view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-3f2c02edd36501e12316e92afeddc2bda83b95701cb8068a578d7b0d9d86c439"> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="site__header__menu__item--primary"> <a href="/freshwater" title="We provide public information on river, lake, and groundwater conditions across New Zealand including water quantity and quality." class="site__header__menu__link--primary" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/114353">Freshwater</a> <div class="menu_link_content menu-link-contentmain view-mode-default menu-dropdown menu-dropdown-0 menu-type-default"> <div class="layout layout--twocol-section layout--twocol-section--75-25"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--first"> <div> <div class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><h1 class="menu-link-content__heading">Freshwater</h1> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-description field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><div class="menu-link-content__description">We provide public information on river, lake, and groundwater conditions across New Zealand including water quantity and quality.</div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-link field--type-link field--label-hidden field__item menu-link-content__section-link"> <a href="/freshwater"> Explore all </a> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-topics view-id-menu_item_topics view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-6a79c33c8e0ef5bd325ca9af4e17f77da290c750cd515629b324d605cd6e45ba"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-topics view-id-menu_item_topics view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-c6035d645a667c703c4cfd3982f28e918f19553e31ac5c9a9d375302d56c0d2b"> <div class="views-row"><div class="taxonomy-term taxonomy-term--type-topic taxonomy-term--view-mode-topic-children-tags ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-topic-children view-id-topic_children view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-1426a1ca4eca3f24f08ea70ac716122c4224cef81512f38796f0cc5a99774c3c"> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-topics view-id-menu_item_related_topics view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-2015a05bc2bbaa70b5aeac24a42b4db00ab0a1679074acce9ef74aa15a62c978"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-topics view-id-menu_item_related_topics view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-ad3951390555b97ac2ff3945033563b8841f66e621414d5962ceace9fab996e2"> <div class="views-row"><div class="taxonomy-term taxonomy-term--type-topic taxonomy-term--view-mode-topic-related-tags ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/freshwater/ecological-monitoring" hreflang="en">Ecological monitoring</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/freshwater/ecotoxicology" hreflang="en">Ecotoxicology</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/freshwater/freshwater-fish" hreflang="en">Freshwater fish</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/freshwater/freshwater-invertebrates" hreflang="en">Freshwater invertebrates</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/freshwater/freshwater-quality" hreflang="en">Freshwater quality</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/freshwater/freshwater-restoration" hreflang="en">Freshwater restoration</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-grouped-links field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/freshwater?pt=10">Research</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/stopping-gold-clam-its-now-or-never">Stopping the gold clam: it's now or never</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/roto-turf-aquatic-plant-life-rafts-degraded-lakes">Roto Turf: Aquatic plant ‘life rafts’ in degraded lakes</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/freshwater-mitigation-systems">Freshwater mitigation systems</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/fish-passage">Fish Passage</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/high-frequency-water-quality-monitoring-guidance">High Frequency Water Quality Monitoring Guidance</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/bio-acoustic-fish-fence">Bio-Acoustic Fish Fence</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/research-projects/snow-and-ice-network">Snow and Ice Network</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/freshwater?pt=13">Services</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/niwa-water-quality-laboratory">NIWA Water Quality Laboratory</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/algal-monitoring-service">Algal monitoring service</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/ecotoxicology-services">Ecotoxicology services</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/freshwater-aquatic-plants">Freshwater aquatic plants</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/lakespi-keeping-tabs-lake-health">LakeSPI: Keeping tabs on lake health</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/water-quality-modelling">Water quality modelling</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/freshwater?pt=13">Tools & Resources</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/freshwater-databases-online">Freshwater databases online</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/fish-passage-home/new-zealand-fish-passage-guidelines">Fish Passage Guidelines</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/fish-passage/guidelines-monitoring-fish-passage-success">Guidelines for monitoring fish passage success</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/environmental-information/nz-freshwater-fish-database/nz-freshwater-fish-database-help">Freshwater Fish database</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/freshwater-pest-species">Freshwater pest species</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/freshwater-mitigation-systems/riparian-buffers/riparian-buffer-design-guide">Riparian Buffer Design Guide</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/freshwater-mitigation-systems/constructed-wetlands/constructed-wetland-guidelines">Constructed wetland guidelines</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/stream-health-monitoring-and-assessment-kit-shmak">Stream Health Monitoring and Assessment Kit (SHMAK)</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/freshwater/freshwater-programme-overview">Programmes</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/programme-overview/freshwater-species-ecology-and-management">Freshwater species ecology and management</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/programme-overview/Hydrological-observations-and-predictions">Hydrological observations and predictions</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/programme-overview/environmental-flows">Environmental flows</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/programme-overview/causes-and-effects-of-water-quality-degradation">Causes and effects of water quality degradation</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater-biosecurity">Freshwater biosecurity</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/freshwater/freshwater-mitigation-systems">Freshwater mitigation systems</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="layout__region layout__region--second"> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-promoted-page field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="layout layout--onecol"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--content"> <div class="card card--mega-menu"> <div class="field field--name-dynamic-token-fieldnode-link-to-source field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><p class="card__link-to-source"><a class="card__link" href="/freshwater/stopping-gold-clam-its-now-or-never">Link to source page</a></p> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-promotion-image field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <img loading="lazy" src="/sites/default/files/styles/card_mega_menu/public/2024-10/Gold_clam_bannerMiddle.png?h=000c6485&itok=hZMVsY0Z" width="614" height="409" alt="Gold_clam_bannerMiddle.png" /> </div> <div class="field field--name-node-title field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><h2> Stopping the gold clam: it's now or never </h2> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-description field--type-string-long field--label-hidden field__item">A NIWA-led programme to develop effective, and culturally-attuned strategies for managing the freshwater gold clam. </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-content view-id-menu_item_related_content view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-384ad2eea2d9775c220f29a4f0d99636aeff98823ff05daa4c14403141a34af4"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-content view-id-menu_item_related_content view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-58d77391170eff116ef47ff7856ceea5b600362242a2d000d352176b1c9861cc"> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="site__header__menu__item--primary"> <a href="/te-kuwaha-and-maori" title="Working together with hapū, iwi, Māori communities and Māori business to deliver tailored science." class="site__header__menu__link--primary" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/114354">Te Kūwaha</a> <div class="menu_link_content menu-link-contentmain view-mode-default menu-dropdown menu-dropdown-0 menu-type-default"> <div class="layout layout--twocol-section layout--twocol-section--75-25"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--first"> <div> <div class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><h1 class="menu-link-content__heading">Te Kūwaha</h1> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-description field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><div class="menu-link-content__description">Working together with hapū, iwi, Māori communities and Māori business to deliver tailored science.</div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-link field--type-link field--label-hidden field__item menu-link-content__section-link"> <a href="/te-kuwaha-and-maori"> Explore all </a> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-topics view-id-menu_item_topics view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-3faa9634d3e8942ab192657fdb09f781fa5eb801dd2996cfd87a32ead332b51c"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-topics view-id-menu_item_topics view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-f03ba2ec33781ce90aad58f8de9216ddb0531d166364e73a5e1f965beda06597"> <div class="views-row"><div class="taxonomy-term taxonomy-term--type-topic taxonomy-term--view-mode-topic-children-tags ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-topic-children view-id-topic_children view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-ea6e8624015adf489b9eedf714f705ecb2fddcfb2c706776271d1a20b669b266"> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-topics view-id-menu_item_related_topics view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-405b67f8984ae0da50476e07b401844779a91cdbebb047479b51f7643b834ce7"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-topics view-id-menu_item_related_topics view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-8ef671295c9682bc49f4270b10eab45772e608b776a08191aa6618f30fef6889"> <div class="views-row"><div class="taxonomy-term taxonomy-term--type-topic taxonomy-term--view-mode-topic-related-tags ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/te-kuwaha-and-maori/taonga-species" hreflang="en">Taonga species</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-grouped-links field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/te-kuwaha-and-maori?pt=10#filters">Research</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/te-kuwaha/research-projects/cultural-keystone-species-co-management-and-restoration-of-our-freshwater-taonga-species">Cultural Keystone Species</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/te-kuwaha/research-projects/maniapoto-cultural-assessment-framework">Maniapoto Cultural Assessment Framework</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/te-k%C5%ABwaha/research-projects/the-impact-of-non-native-marine-pests-on-our-takutai-moana">The impact of non-native marine pests on our takutai moana</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/te-k%C5%ABwaha/research-projects/ng%C4%81-repo-o-maniapoto-maniapoto-wetland-inventory">Ngā repo o Maniapoto - Maniapoto wetland inventory</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/te-kuwaha-and-maori?pt=13#filters">Tools & Resources</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/taonga-species">Taonga Species Series</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/te-kuwaha/ccva">Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA)</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/te-kuwaha-and-maori/kaitiaki-tools">Kaitiaki Tools</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/te-kuwaha/tools-and-resources/trends-analysis-for-selected-indicators-of-waikato-river-health-and-wellbeing-2010-2019">Trends analysis for selected indicators of Waikato River health</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate/information-and-resources/climate-and-m%C4%81ori-society">Climate and Māori society</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="layout__region layout__region--second"> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-promoted-page field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="layout layout--onecol"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--content"> <div class="card card--mega-menu"> <div class="field field--name-dynamic-token-fieldnode-link-to-source field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><p class="card__link-to-source"><a class="card__link" href="/te-kuwaha-and-maori/te-kuwaha-graduate-programme">Link to source page</a></p> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-promotion-image field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <img loading="lazy" src="/sites/default/files/styles/card_mega_menu/public/2023-01/koru.jpg?h=c74750f6&itok=zxI9Rh7E" width="614" height="409" alt="Koru" /> </div> <div class="field field--name-node-title field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><h2> Te Kūwaha Graduate Programme </h2> </div> <div class="field field--name-node-post-date field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item">19 January 2023</div> <div class="field field--name-field-description field--type-string-long field--label-hidden field__item">NIWA’s Te Kūwaha Graduate Internship programme has been established to help support and create tangible pathways for the next generation of Māori researchers. </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-content view-id-menu_item_related_content view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-92186cd415f6fac9e517adf0fd2e87e3c329f406c98339f33fb71fde3e41c7ac"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-content view-id-menu_item_related_content view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-5a88b8f71fdd307b326d9defb7459a83d345ca7d7cdc4e9b668cb28fb88a7643"> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="site__header__menu__item--primary"> <a href="/pacific" title="We provide applied science and environmental consultancy services to support international development. NIWA works collaboratively with Pacific partners to support the sustainable management and resilience of natural resources, environments & communities." class="site__header__menu__link--primary" data-drupal-link-system-path="taxonomy/term/222">Pacific</a> <div class="menu_link_content menu-link-contentmain view-mode-default menu-dropdown menu-dropdown-0 menu-type-default"> <div class="layout layout--twocol-section layout--twocol-section--75-25"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--first"> <div> <div class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><h1 class="menu-link-content__heading">Pacific</h1> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-description field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><div class="menu-link-content__description">We provide applied science and environmental consultancy services to support international development. NIWA works collaboratively with Pacific partners to support the sustainable management and resilience of natural resources, environments & communities.</div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-link field--type-link field--label-hidden field__item menu-link-content__section-link"> <a href="/pacific"> Explore all </a> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-topics view-id-menu_item_topics view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-5479b9817980ce612eb40b5f407e6123460424341de986109760bbd6079ad16d"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-topics view-id-menu_item_topics view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-c9d83e7517db4b2e0ff1ffec3a5ec1b5ca9a9a0df2326a98d0a0d4c2d0c8fad0"> <div class="views-row"><div class="taxonomy-term taxonomy-term--type-topic taxonomy-term--view-mode-topic-children-tags ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-topic-children view-id-topic_children view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-8da38bec153db2966077e03649b96bd28afc20acd1bef8807c21215917a37854"> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-topics view-id-menu_item_related_topics view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-b291893faa67e0b66517d065d18086d4fbde51df10b5c92de19cd0fb0fcb4b08"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-topics view-id-menu_item_related_topics view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-7c8d4871d6805af9b9d2712ef6b195c1b228cdf0ea295badfd785c9d93c67bb6"> <div class="views-row"><div class="taxonomy-term taxonomy-term--type-topic taxonomy-term--view-mode-topic-related-tags ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/pacific/pacific-climate" hreflang="en">Pacific climate</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/pacific/pacific-fisheries-and-aquaculture" hreflang="en">Pacific fisheries and aquaculture</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/pacific/pacific-hazards" hreflang="en">Pacific hazards</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/pacific/pacific-hydrography" hreflang="en">Pacific hydrography</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/pacific/pacific-marine-biosecurity" hreflang="en">Pacific marine biosecurity</a></div> <div class="topic-tag topic-tag--related"><a href="/pacific/pacific-ocean-science" hreflang="en">Pacific ocean science</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-grouped-links field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/pacific/pacific-partnerships">Partnerships</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/752874b7f122451a8dff87a068f4402f">A Floating University for the Pacific</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/coasts/seabed-2030/seabed-2030">Pacific Centre for Seabed 2030</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://gem.spc.int/updates/blog/2021/09/new-ocean-acidification-training-hub-launched-to-tackle-growing-threat">Pacific Ocean Acidification Training Hub</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/pacific?pt=10#filters">Research Projects</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/pacific-rim/research-projects/pacific-risk-tool-for-resilience-phase-2-partner-2">Pacific Risk Tool for Resilience, Phase 2 (PARTneR-2)</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/pacific/improved-sustainability-demersal-line-fishery-tonga">Improved sustainability of the demersal line fishery in Tonga</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/pacific-rim/research-projects/development-of-sustainable-water-supply-and-treatment-systems-for-a-coastal-fijian-village">Development of sustainable water supply and treatment systems</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/pacific?pt=13#filters">Tools & Services</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update">Island Climate Update</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/hazards/coastal-hazards/partner-pacific-risk-tool-resilience">Riskscape</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/pacific/climate-data-environment-services-client-clidesc">Climate Data for the Environment Services Client (CliDESc)</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="https://www.vmgd.gov.vu/climate/climate-maps">Climatology maps for Vanuatu</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/pacific/site-household-sanitation-guidelines-fiji">On-Site Household Sanitation Guidelines for Fiji</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="layout__region layout__region--second"> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-promoted-page field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="layout layout--onecol"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--content"> <div class="card card--mega-menu"> <div class="field field--name-dynamic-token-fieldnode-link-to-source field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><p class="card__link-to-source"><a class="card__link" href="/climate-and-weather/island-climate-update">Link to source page</a></p> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-promotion-image field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"> <img loading="lazy" src="/sites/default/files/styles/card_mega_menu/public/2023-09/2022_09_TONGATAPU_parsonskingDSC08863.jpg?h=82f92a78&itok=5PQVHxgt" width="614" height="409" alt="Coconut palms against the night sky in Tongatapu" /> </div> <div class="field field--name-node-title field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><h2> Island Climate Update </h2> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-page-type field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item">Publication series</div> <div class="field field--name-node-post-date field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item">06 June 2017</div> <div class="field field--name-field-description field--type-string-long field--label-hidden field__item">A monthly summary of the climate in the tropical South Pacific islands, with an outlook for the coming months.</div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-content view-id-menu_item_related_content view-display-id-entity_view_1 js-view-dom-id-6f8d8086e355ad36206f92ca9783df9db6cd0e68324012cb02c60150475f1571"> <div class="view view-eva view-menu-item-related-content view-id-menu_item_related_content view-display-id-entity_view_2 js-view-dom-id-48669dd87068291a8ba1bba2f1625cd62f2adab7e19c6add418179a381dac5f5"> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> </ul> </nav> <nav role="navigation" aria-labelledby="block-niwa-secondarymenublock-menu" id="block-niwa-secondarymenublock"> <h2 class="visually-hidden" id="block-niwa-secondarymenublock-menu">Secondary menu</h2> <ul class="site__header__menu__list--secondary"> <li data-disable-flyout="0" class="site__header__menu__item--secondary"> <a href="/about-niwa" title="Decision makers at all levels are seeking evidence-based analysis and advice from environmental experts. NIWA’s science provides high quality insights to underpin important decisions, and innovative solutions." class="site__header__menu__link--secondary" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/114355">About</a> <div class="menu_link_content menu-link-contentsecondary-menu view-mode-default menu-dropdown menu-dropdown-0 menu-type-default"> <div class="layout layout--onecol"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--content"> <div> <div class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><h1 class="menu-link-content__heading">About</h1> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-description field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><div class="menu-link-content__description">Decision makers at all levels are seeking evidence-based analysis and advice from environmental experts. NIWA’s science provides high quality insights to underpin important decisions, and innovative solutions.</div> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-link field--type-link field--label-hidden field__item menu-link-content__section-link"> <a href="/about-niwa"> Explore all </a> </div> </div> <div> <div class="field field--name-field-secondary-grouped-links field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><div class="paragraph paragraph--type-grouped-links-utility paragraph--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <h2><a href="https://niwa.co.nz/about-niwa/our-people">Our people</a></h2> <div class="field field--name-field-links field--type-link field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/about-niwa/our-people/our-board">Our board</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/about-niwa/our-people/our-management/executive-team">Executive team</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a 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class="page__summary__text">The development of updated national climate projections for Aotearoa New Zealand was completed in 2024.</p> </div> <nav class="page__title-banner__icon-menu"> <a href="/climate-and-weather" class="field-group-link icon-menu__button" title="Climate and weather" hreflang="en"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 640 512"> <path d="M303.8 13.4c-.9-5.4-4.5-10-9.6-12.1s-10.9-1.5-15.4 1.6L208 52.5 137.2 2.9c-4.5-3.2-10.3-3.8-15.4-1.6s-8.7 6.7-9.6 12.1L98.1 98.1 13.4 112.2c-5.4 .9-10 4.5-12.1 9.6s-1.5 10.9 1.6 15.4L52.5 208 2.9 278.8c-3.2 4.5-3.8 10.3-1.6 15.4s6.7 8.7 12.1 9.6l84.7 14.1 14.1 84.7c.9 5.4 4.5 10 9.6 12.1s10.9 1.5 15.4-1.6l24.4-17c3.2-20.2 11-38.9 22.5-54.8l-44.4 31.1-11.8-71c-1.1-6.7-6.4-12-13.2-13.2l-71-11.8 41.4-59.2c3.9-5.5 3.9-12.8 0-18.4L43.7 139.6l71-11.8c6.7-1.1 12-6.4 13.2-13.2l11.8-71 59.2 41.4c5.5 3.9 12.8 3.9 18.4 0l59.2-41.4 11.8 71c1.1 6.7 6.4 12 13.2 13.2l71 11.8-40.2 57.5c11.4-3.3 23.4-5.1 35.8-5.1c2.2 0 4.5 .1 6.7 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class="visually-hidden">Breadcrumb</h2> <ol> <li class="breadcrumb__item breadcrumb__item--mobile-hidden"> <a href="/">Home</a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb__item"> <a href="/climate-and-weather">Climate & Weather</a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb__item breadcrumb__item--mobile-hidden"> Updated national climate projections for New Zealand </li> </ol> </nav> </div> </header> <div class="node node--type-page node--view-mode-full ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="body-content"> <div class="body-content__main"> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>The development of updated national climate projections for Aotearoa New Zealand was completed in mid 2024. </p> <p>The data is available from the <a href="https://climatedata.environment.govt.nz/">Ministry for the Environment (MfE)</a>, along with a map-based geospatial tool to display the climate projections data and insights into the data. </p> <p>Data has been generated for the recent historic period plus four future <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change/">Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)</a> scenarios out to the year 2100. The four SSPs are: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. </p> <p>Find out more about how <a href="https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/niwa-can-help-you-leverage-updated-climate-projections">NIWA can help you leverage the updated climate projections.</a></p> <h2>Background</h2> <p>The work is supporting Aotearoa’s transition to a low-emissions, climate-resilient economy. It helps New Zealanders better understand their climate-related risks by enabling access to the latest detailed climate projections for all New Zealanders. This will improve decision-making for climate adaptation and support resilience to extreme weather events.</p> <p>The Working Group 1 contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report was published in August 2021 and was based on the latest suite of global climate model outputs – called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, or CMIP6. CMIP6 includes around 100 models. See <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/assets/publications/Climate-Change-Projections-Guidance-FINAL.pdf">Aotearoa New Zealand climate change projections guidance (Ministry for the Environment) </a>for more details.</p> <p>NIWA has used six global models from this set and experimented with three regional climate models and sophisticated statistical/machine-learning approaches to develop this next of high resolution projections specific to New Zealand, via a process known as downscaling.</p> <p>The six global models are: ACCESS-CM2, NorESM2-MM, EC-Earth3, GFDL-ESM4, AWI-CM-1-1MR and CNRM-CM6-1. We have selected these six global models based on their performance over our region (using model output for the period 1980-2015 compared to global observational reanalysis data and based on a large number of climate variables and indicators). We have also ensured that the models span a range of climate model sensitivities and are relatively independent from one another (i.e., they do not share major parts of the model code). </p> <p>Published alongside this model suite will be downscaled projections from the New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM), developed here in New Zealand through the <a href="https://deepsouthchallenge.co.nz/research-project/nz-earth-system-model/">Deep South Challenge</a> to improve our understanding of the Southern Hemisphere processes that strongly influence our climate.</p> <p>The work has been funded by the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment (with the contract managed by the Ministry for the Environment). This means the model outputs will be made available at no cost to all New Zealanders.</p> <h2>Project stages</h2> <p>Project stages include:</p> <ol><li>Completed: Selection of climate models from the CMIP6 suite (this has been done, with six global models and three regional models selected), setup and testing.</li><li>Completed: Regional climate model runs using NIWA’s <a href="/our-services/high-performance-computing-facility">High Performance Computing Facility</a>.</li><li>Completed: Further data downscaling using statistical and machine learning approaches.</li><li>Completed: Bias correction.</li><li>Completed: Data post-processing and developing an appropriate mechanism to make datasets accessible to end users.</li><li>Completed: Downscaling, bias correction and processing of SSP5-8.5 projections.</li></ol> <p>The selection of the four SSPs for dynamical downscaling (three initially and one later) was heavily influenced by computing constraints, with the decision to not select SSP1-1.9 based on the recommendations of the international CORDEX downscaling community to prioritise the middle three SSPs. We also took into account the decision of the Deep South National Science Challenge to select the same three SSPs for the NZ Earth System Model runs and noted that this decision was based on a stakeholder survey. </p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-wide"><img src="/sites/default/files/styles/wide/public/HPCF-Wellington-NIWA.jpg?itok=dvmFmoC6" alt="" class="wp-image-44359" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d4f8cf71-1e0b-4c9e-88d8-4b3ce7828859" data-image-style="original"/></figure> <p>The regional climate model runs for the first three SSPs took approximately 1 year to complete (June 2022 through June 2023). This aspect of the project (Project Stage 2) used approximately 70% capacity of one NIWA supercomputer (requiring over 12 million core hours in total). This computing power is equivalent to running more than 150 high end laptops non-stop for a year.</p> <p>More detail can be found in reports on <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://climatedata.environment.govt.nz/files/CMIP6_guidance_doc_June2024.pdf" target="_blank">Methodology </a>and <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://climatedata.environment.govt.nz/files/Bias_Correction_of_Downscaled_CMIP6_Output.pdf" target="_blank">Bias Correction</a> (written by NIWA for the Ministry for the Environment).</p> <h2>Project outputs – core public dataset</h2> <p>For all the listed climate variables below, downscaled data (GIS-ready files at 5 km spatial resolution for all NZ) will be available for:</p> <ul><li>the average of the six global models outlined above</li><li>three SSPs (with SSP5-8.5 added in early 2025)</li><li>three future periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100) </li><li>four global warming levels (1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C) <em>(* see below for more details about warming levels)</em></li><li>from two historical baselines (1986-2005 and 1995-2014). </li></ul> <p>These time slices, warming levels and baselines are consistent with the <a href="https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Finteractive-atlas.ipcc.ch%2F&data=05%7C02%7CStacy.Mohan%40niwa.co.nz%7Ca00765733e8349f27e7808dc3734e432%7C41caed736a0c468aba499ff6aafd1c77%7C0%7C0%7C638445947505077792%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=YMFuiumIbev9ZvAUFJ%2BNSJSuqbN39SwUe4JtryqJxpg%3D&reserved=0">IPCC Working Group 1 Atlas</a> (click on the Regional Information (Advanced) link). </p> <p>In addition to the above datasets there is already public access to projected changes in extreme rainfall via <a href="https://hirds.niwa.co.nz/">HIRDS </a>(which NIWA will be looking to update) and to the <a href="https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fniwa.co.nz%2Fnatural-hazards%2Four-services%2Fextreme-coastal-flood-maps-for-aotearoa-new-zealand&data=05%7C02%7CStacy.Mohan%40niwa.co.nz%7Ca00765733e8349f27e7808dc3734e432%7C41caed736a0c468aba499ff6aafd1c77%7C0%7C0%7C638445947505085975%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=PC2tfDWVktOnFz5FFwyLAF9gZv2zYUATUsevhx4fgPQ%3D&reserved=0">100-year ARI storm tide coastal inundation layers</a> for current day and 10 cm increments of sea-level rise up to 2 m.</p> <figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Climate variable</strong></td><td><strong>Annual</strong></td><td><strong>Seasonal</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Average daily air temperature: Tmin, Tmax, Tmean, Trange </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Number of hot days (>25°C) </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Number of frost days (<0°C) </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Number of very hot days (>30°C) </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Temperature on hottest and coldest days of year</td><td>x</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Growing degree days (base 5°C & 10°C) </td><td>x</td><td> </td></tr><tr><td>Cooling degree days (base 18°C) </td><td>x</td><td> </td></tr><tr><td>Heating degree days (base 18°C) </td><td>x</td><td> </td></tr><tr><td>Total rainfall </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Number of dry days </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Number of rainy days (>1mm) </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Number of very rainy days (>25mm) </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Heavy rainfall (99<sup>th</sup> percentile) </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Drought (PED) accumulation  </td><td>x</td><td> </td></tr><tr><td>Average wind speed </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Number of windy days (>10m/s) </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Strong wind (99<sup>th</sup> percentile) </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Average relative humidity </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr><tr><td>Average solar radiation </td><td>x</td><td>x</td></tr></tbody></table></figure> <p>Other frequently requested information includes projected changes to river flows and flooding. NIWA is actively working on assessing changes to flood risk in their <a href="https://niwa.co.nz/hazards/ma-te-haumaru-o-nga-puna-wai-o-rakaihautu-ka-ora-mo-ake-tonu">MBIE-funded Endeavour research programme</a> and has begun work to update river flow projections. </p> <p></p> <p><em>* Notes about warming levels: Since the downscaled (i.e. CCAM, or Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) simulations begin in 1960, it was not possible to compute warming level change maps relative to a pre-industrial base period from CCAM. As such, the warming level change maps instead display the climate change signal relative to a modern base period (i.e. optionally 1986-2005 or 1995-2014). However, the future period associated with these change maps is based on when a global warming level is reached utilising data from the host GCM, defined as the 20-year window when the rolling mean reaches the corresponding global warming level relative to the pre-industrial mean (1850-1900), following the IPCC Atlas. For certain scenarios, a particular warming level may not be reached in all models. The multi-model mean for the corresponding warming level is therefore only included if at least four of the six models reach the warming level.</em></p> <p></p> <h2>Example output</h2> <p>Animation showing hourly precipitation (yellow > red shading shows heavy precipitation) and cloud cover (white shading):</p> <div class="wp-block-drupalmedia-drupal-media-entity"><div class="media media--type-remote-video media--view-mode-default ds-1col clearfix"> <a href="https://vimeo.com/756588094" class="field-group-link venobox venobox-video"> <div class="field field--name-field-media-oembed-video field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item"><iframe src="https://niwa.co.nz/media/oembed?url=https%3A//vimeo.com/756588094&max_width=0&max_height=0&hash=CMr5EGCPsAkiHan2RLM3uKbLZpShixyxiSgQiV6fvew" width="246" height="240" class="media-oembed-content" loading="eager" title="Animation showing hourly precipitation"></iframe> </div> </a> <div class="video-embed-block__details"> <div class="field field--name-dynamic-token-fieldmedia-play-video field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><div class="video-embed-block__play-button"><a class="venobox" data-vbtype="video" href="https://vimeo.com/756588094"><span class="visually-hidden">Play video</span></a></div></div> <div class="field field--name-name field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item">Animation showing hourly precipitation</div> <div class="field field--name-dynamic-token-fieldmedia-watch-video field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><a class="venobox" data-vbtype="video" href="https://vimeo.com/756588094">Watch Video</a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <h2>NIWA's additional climate modelling</h2> <p>In addition to the dynamical downscaling, NIWA will once again be producing climate projections based on statistical downscaling (although for the CMIP6 update we will be using more sophisticated Machine Learning methods). Development of this procedure was recently outlined in a peer-reviewed journal article: <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722001049">High-resolution downscaling with interpretable deep learning: Rainfall extremes over New Zealand</a>. Benchmark evaluations show that this new method vastly outperforms traditional statistical downscaling approaches for rainfall and extreme events over New Zealand. </p> <p>This work will downscale many more CMIP6 global models (at least 20). This will complement the dynamically downscaled projections by providing information based on a wider range of models and scenarios. This two-pronged approach is consistent with NIWA’s previous downscaling work.</p> <h2>Research papers and reports</h2> <ul><li><a href="https://climatedata.environment.govt.nz/files/CMIP6_guidance_doc_June2024.pdf">User Guidance of CMIP6 Downscaled Data for Aotearoa New Zealand (NIWA client report for Ministry for the Environment 2024)</a></li><li><a href="https://climatedata.environment.govt.nz/files/Bias_Correction_of_Downscaled_CMIP6_Output.pdf">Bias Correction of Downscaled CMIP6 Output (NIWA client report for Ministry for the Environment 2024)</a></li><li><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-024-07337-5">Dynamical downscaling CMIP6 models over New Zealand: added value of climatology and extremes (Climate Dynamics 2024)</a></li><li><a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8578">Comparison of three reanalysis-driven regional climatemodels over New Zealand: Climatology and extreme events (International Journal of Climatology 2024)</a></li><li><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023JD039664">Storylines for Future Projections of Precipitation Over New Zealand in CMIP6 Models (JGR Atmospheres 2024)</a></li><li><a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/aies/3/2/AIES-D-23-0066.1.xml">Enhancing Regional Climate Downscaling through Advances in Machine Learning (Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems 2024)</a></li><li><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JD038530">High-Resolution CCAM Simulations Over New Zealand and the South Pacific for the Detection and Attribution of Weather Extremes (JGR Atmospheres)</a></li></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-dynamic-block-fieldnode-book-pages field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><div class="views-element-container"><div class="book-cards card-grid js-view-dom-id-32129db53f63b7f7156139f52bb7443e73a6e9a6ecd10824f049a6801e704372"> <header> <div 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