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<script data-osano="ANALYTICS" type="text/plain" class="ipm-osano-js"> var dataLayer = dataLayer || []; </script> <script data-osano="ANALYTICS" type="text/plain" class="ipm-osano-js"> var ipm_ga = {"author":["dana-blankenhorn"],"publish_date":"20210429","category":["hot-stocks"],"hot_topics":"","post_id":"1923743","publishing_author":"robin-bradley","content_type":"article(<3)","test_variant":"","industries":"","stock_types":"","tickers":["plug"]}; </script> <script data-osano="ANALYTICS" type="text/plain" class="ipm-osano-js"> dataLayer.push({'author': 'Dana Blankenhorn' }); </script>  <noscript><iframe src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/ns.html?id=GTM-N7BC" height="0" width="0" style="display:none;visibility:hidden"></iframe></noscript> <script data-osano="ANALYTICS" type="text/plain" class="ipm-osano-js"> dataLayer.push({ 'gtm.start': new Date().getTime(), event: 'gtm.js' }); </script> <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id=GTM-N7BC" data-osano="ANALYTICS" 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"https:\/\/investorplace.com\/2021\/04\/plug-power-the-slow-uneasy-transition-to-hydrogen\/", "url": "https:\/\/investorplace.com\/2021\/04\/plug-power-the-slow-uneasy-transition-to-hydrogen\/", "name": "Plug Power: The Slow, Uneasy Transition to Hydrogen" } } ] } </script>  <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http:\/\/schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "publisher": { "@type": "NewsMediaOrganization", "name": "InvestorPlace", "url": "https:\/\/investorplace.com", "logo": "https:\/\/investorplace.com\/wp-content\/themes\/InvestorPlaceV2\/dist\/images\/ipm-logo.png", "sameAs": [ "https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/investorplace\/", "https:\/\/twitter.com\/InvestorPlace", "https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/investorplace-media-llc", "https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCT6Mvbk82SuZpLCC6EUNJGA" ] }, "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https:\/\/investorplace.com\/2021\/04\/plug-power-the-slow-uneasy-transition-to-hydrogen\/" }, "author": [ { "@context": "http:\/\/schema.org", "@type": "Person", "url": "https:\/\/investorplace.com\/author\/danablankenhorn\/", "name": "Dana Blankenhorn", "sameAs": [ "https:\/\/danafblankenhorn.substack.com", "https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/danablankenhorn\/", "https:\/\/www.danablankenhorn.com\/", "" ], "jobTitle": "InvestorPlace Contributor", "knowsAbout": "Technology, Biotech, Renewable energy" } ], "headline": "Plug Power: The Slow, Uneasy Transition to Hydrogen", "datePublished": "2021-04-29T16:05:45-04:00", "dateModified": "2021-04-29T16:12:05-04:00", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https:\/\/investorplace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/hydrogen_1600_c.jpg", "height": 900, "width": 1600 }, "articleBody": "After a decade spent writing that hydrogen was the future\u00a0I was excited about the rise of Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) last year. Despite a recent drop in price, PLUG stock is currently up about 535% in the past year. Source: DesignRage \/ Shutterstock.com Plug Power wants to create a market for hydrogen fuel. After building a business in hydrogen-powered forklifts, the company bought a Tennessee plant that could convert waste from ammonia production into hydrogen for sale last year. Around the time I first wrote about this in October, speculators discovered Plug Power stock. In January, after it signed a warrant deal with Amazon.Com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and a supply contract with Walmart (NYSE:WMT), I again covered Plug Power\u2019s promise.\u00a0 Since then, the stock has crashed, falling from $73\/share to a recent low below $27. Does this mean the promises were false? No. Short Term vs. Long Term The promise remains, but it\u2019s a long-term promise, not a short-term one. Speculators have no concept of the long-term. In October, for instance, our Luke Lango predicted a Plug Power move to $35. Based on fundamentals that would make sense, over time. But speculators have no time. They saw the promise as a reality and bid the stock up, far beyond Luke\u2019s target. That run-up was not justified. It\u2019s going to take years to build hydrogen infrastructure. Right now the market is mainly found in warehouses and utility-grade back-ups from FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL), which aren\u2019t usually on. The promise, however, remains. Last month Plug Power signed a deal to use energy from a hydroelectric plant in Pennsylvania to create hydrogen from water using hydrolysis. Electricity can separate water into hydrogen and oxygen. Plug Power can harvest the hydrogen for fuel. When that fuel is \u201cburned\u201d in a fuel cell, the result is energy and water. I believe the water should be collected for re-use. Valuing Plug Power Over the next 5-10 years, Plug Power is going to sign more deals like this. It\u2019s going to sell more hydrogen forklifts, because gasoline engines shouldn\u2019t be running in an enclosed space. Grandview Research projects the hydrogen market will grow at a 5.7% rate through 2028. A Markets and Markets Report is more optimistic, predicting growth of 9.3%.\u00a0 Right now, however, most hydrogen comes as a byproduct of oil refining. Ammonia production, which Plug Power is taking advantage of in Tennessee, is also common. So-called \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen, as with the Pennsylvania hydroelectric project, is still a small piece of the market.\u00a0 Plug Power stock is simply out ahead of its skis. The company is still in the investment stage, losing far more money than it takes in to build an asset base. Most of its assets are still in cash. The current valuation of around $17 billion is hard to justify based on $436 million in property, plant, and equipment, or $1.37 billion in cash. Plug Power\u2019s decision to bundle research into cost of goods sold, meanwhile, has caused the plaintiff\u2019s bar to cry foul since the stock began falling. Even optimists like Stephen Calder Byrd of Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are calling risk and reward balanced, cutting their ratings on the stock. The Bottom Line The stock market is not the economy. Just because a stock is overpriced, and just because its speculative bubble has popped, doesn\u2019t mean the opportunity is gone. When I first wrote about Plug Power the stock was trading at $17.60\/share. If you bought the stock then, you have a fat profit and should take it. Hydrogen is a long-term trend. It\u2019s an investment, not a trade. If you are going to buy this stock, as an investment, be prepared to hold it for a long time, and be prepared for some dark times. That\u2019s how great industries are built. At the time of publication, Dana Blankenhorn directly owned shares in AMZN. Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. He is the author of Technology\u2019s Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore\u2019s Law, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com, tweet him at @danablankenhorn, or subscribe to his Substack https:\/\/danafblankenhorn.substack.com\/. Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. He is the author of Technology\u2019s Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore\u2019s Law, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Tweet him at @danablankenhorn, connect with him on Mastodon or subscribe to his Substack.", "articleSection": "Hot Stocks", "description": "I wrote about the promise of Plug Power in October, when the stock was at $17.60. It's now at $29, after speculators drove it as high as $73.", "about": [ { "@type": "Corporation", "name": "Plug Power Inc", "tickerSymbol": "NASDAQ PLUG" } ] } </script> <header class="site-header" role="banner"> <div class="global-header" qa-global-header-ip-com> <div class="container-fluid global-header-wrapper"> <div class="flex-row flex-vertically-center"> <div class="col-xs-12 col-md-4 tablet markets"> <div class="markets-wrap"> <div class="today-market"> <ul> <li> <div id="market-data-ticker-DIA" class="item market-data-ticker-DIA"> <div class="top"> <a href="https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/dia-stock-quote/" aria-label="DIA Stock Quote of Dow Industrials SPDR">DOW</a> <span class="percentage market-data-ticker-DIA-change"></span> </div> <div class="bottom"> <span><span class="market-data-ticker-DIA-value"></span> /</span> <span class="market-data-ticker-DIA-changeval"></span> </div> </div> </li> <li> <div id="market-data-ticker-QQQ" class="item market-data-ticker-QQQ"> 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Picks</a></li> / <li><a href="https://investorplace.com/category/stock-picks/hot-stocks/">Hot Stocks</a></li> / <li class="breadcrumb_last" aria-current="page">Plug Power: The Slow, Uneasy Transition to Hydrogen</li></ul></nav> <article id="post-1923743" class="post-1923743 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-hot-stocks ipm_ticker-plug ipm_feed-google ipm_feed-msn-article ipm_feed-NASDAQ ipm_feed-tickerized ipm_feed-yahoo ipm_feed-zacks-feed ipm_content_type-article"> <header class="entry-header interior-article-header"> <h1 class="entry-title article-header-title"> Plug Power: The Slow, Uneasy Transition to Hydrogen </h1> <div class="entry-meta byline -no-tagline"> <p class="article-subtitle post-title1"> Plug Power has a long-term opportunity in hydrogen, but speculation has driven its price beyond fundamentals </p> <div class="entry-meta byline"> <span class="entry-date post-date elapsed-post-date" hidden> <abbr class="published formatted-post-date"></abbr> <span class="modified-date"> <time datetime="2021-04-29" pubdate> April 29, 2021 </time> </span> </span> <span class="meta-prep meta-prep-author"> By <span class="author"> <a class="" href="https://investorplace.com/author/danablankenhorn/" title="View profile of Dana Blankenhorn">Dana Blankenhorn</a>, InvestorPlace Contributor </span> </span> <span class="entry-date post-date" data-timestamp-presentation="1619726745" data-duplicate-class-selector=".post-date" > <abbr class="published"> Apr 29, 2021, 4:05 pm EST </abbr> <span class="modified-date"> <time datetime="2021-04-29" pubdate> April 29, 2021 </time> </span> </span> </div> </header> <div class="entry-content story"> <p>After a decade spent writing that <a href="https://www.danablankenhorn.com/2009/01/the-real-benefits-of-a-hydrogen-economy.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">hydrogen was the future</a> I was excited about the rise of <strong>Plug Power</strong> (NASDAQ:<span class="stock-ticker"><a href="https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/plug-stock-quote/"><strong><u>PLUG</u></strong></a></span>) last year. Despite a recent drop in price, PLUG stock is currently up about 535% in the past year.</p> <div id="1770706" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption alignright"> <img src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif" data-lazy-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-300x169.jpg" decoding="async" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-1770706" alt="An image of a hydrogen fueling station against a blue sky." width="300" height="169" srcset="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-300x169.jpg 300w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-768x432.jpg 768w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-200x113.jpg 200w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-400x225.jpg 400w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-116x65.jpg 116w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-100x56.jpg 100w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-89x50.jpg 89w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-78x44.jpg 78w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c.jpg 1600w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px"><noscript><img decoding="async" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-1770706" src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-300x169.jpg" alt="An image of a hydrogen fueling station against a blue sky." width="300" height="169" srcset="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-300x169.jpg 300w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-768x432.jpg 768w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-200x113.jpg 200w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-400x225.jpg 400w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-116x65.jpg 116w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-100x56.jpg 100w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-89x50.jpg 89w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c-78x44.jpg 78w, https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/hydrogen_1600_c.jpg 1600w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></noscript></p> <div class="ipm_image_source">Source: DesignRage / Shutterstock.com</div> </p></div> <p>Plug Power wants to create a market for hydrogen fuel. After building a business in hydrogen-powered forklifts, the company <a href="https://investorplace.com/2020/10/plug-stock-hydrogen-supplier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bought a Tennessee plant</a> that could convert waste from ammonia production into hydrogen <a href="https://www.plugpower.com/powerspot-united-hydrogen/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">for sale</a> last year.</p> <p>Around the time I first wrote about this in October, speculators discovered Plug Power stock. In January, after it signed a warrant deal with <strong>Amazon.Com</strong> (NASDAQ:<span class="stock-ticker"><a href="https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/amzn-stock-quote/"><strong><u>AMZN</u></strong></a></span>) and a supply contract with <strong>Walmart </strong>(NYSE:<span class="stock-ticker"><a href="https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/wmt-stock-quote/"><strong><u>WMT</u></strong></a></span>), I again covered <a href="https://investorplace.com/2021/01/plug-stock-a-real-opportunity-in-hydrogen/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Plug Power’s promise. </a></p> <aside class="ipm-inline-ad"></aside> <p>Since then, the stock has crashed, falling from $73/share to a recent low below $27. Does this mean the promises were false?</p> <p>No.</p> <h3>Short Term vs. Long Term</h3> <p>The promise remains, but it’s <a href="https://www.danablankenhorn.com/2008/12/addressing-the-crisis.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">a long-term promise</a>, not a short-term one. Speculators have no concept of the long-term.</p> <p>In October, for instance, our Luke Lango <a href="https://investorplace.com/2020/10/plug-stock-clean-energy-wave-35/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">predicted</a> a Plug Power move to $35. Based on fundamentals that would make sense, over time. But speculators have no time. They saw the promise as a reality and bid the stock up, far beyond Luke’s target.</p> <p>That run-up was not justified. It’s going to take years to build hydrogen infrastructure. Right now the market is mainly found in warehouses and utility-grade back-ups from <strong>FuelCell Energy</strong> (NASDAQ:<span class="stock-ticker"><a href="https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/fcel-stock-quote/"><strong><u>FCEL</u></strong></a></span>), which aren’t usually on.</p> <p>The promise, however, remains. Last month Plug Power signed a deal to use energy from a hydroelectric plant in Pennsylvania to create hydrogen from water <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-plug-power-brookfield-renewable-114216686.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">using hydrolysis.</a> Electricity can separate water into hydrogen and oxygen. Plug Power can harvest the hydrogen for fuel. When that fuel is “burned” in a fuel cell, the result is energy and water. I believe the water should be collected for re-use.</p> <h3>Valuing Plug Power</h3> <p>Over the next 5-10 years, Plug Power is going to sign more deals like this. It’s going to sell more hydrogen forklifts, because gasoline engines shouldn’t be running in an enclosed space. Grandview Research projects the hydrogen market will grow at a 5.7% rate <a href="https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/hydrogen-generation-market" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">through 2028.</a> A Markets and Markets Report is more optimistic, predicting growth of <a href="https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/hydrogen-generation-market-494.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">9.3%. </a></p> <p>Right now, however, most hydrogen comes as a byproduct of oil refining. Ammonia production, which Plug Power is taking advantage of in Tennessee, is also common. So-called “green” hydrogen, as with the Pennsylvania hydroelectric project, is still <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">a small piece of the market. </a></p> <aside class="ipm-inline-ad hidden-ad" data-skip-text-link="true" data-hide-ad="true"></aside> <p>Plug Power stock is simply out ahead of its skis. The company is still in the investment stage, losing far more money than it takes in to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/PLUG/financials/annual/income-statement" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">build an asset base.</a> Most of its assets are still <a href="https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/PLUG/financials/annual/income-statement" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">in cash</a>. The current valuation of around $17 billion is hard to justify based on $436 million in property, plant, and equipment, or $1.37 billion in cash.</p> <p>Plug Power’s decision to <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417455-reason-wall-street-is-blanking-plugs-accounting-problems" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">bundle research into cost of goods sold</a>, meanwhile, has caused the plaintiff’s bar to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rosen-leading-law-firm-encourages-233700005.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">cry foul</a> since the stock began falling. Even optimists like Stephen Calder Byrd of <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> (NYSE:<span class="stock-ticker"><a href="https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/ms-stock-quote/"><strong><u>MS</u></strong></a></span>) are calling risk and reward balanced, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plug-power-stock-reached-attractive-194447264.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">cutting their ratings</a> on the stock.</p> <h3>The Bottom Line</h3> <p>The stock market is not the economy.</p> <p>Just because a stock is overpriced, and just because its speculative bubble has popped, doesn’t mean the opportunity is gone.</p> <p>When I first wrote about Plug Power the stock was trading at $17.60/share. If you bought the stock then, you have a fat profit and should take it.</p> <p>Hydrogen is a long-term trend. It’s an investment, not a trade. If you are going to buy this stock, as an investment, be prepared to hold it for a long time, and be prepared for some dark times. That’s how great industries are built.</p> <p><em>At the time of publication, Dana Blankenhorn directly owned shares in AMZN. </em></p> <p><a href="http://www.danablankenhorn.com/" rel="nofollow"><em>Dana Blankenhorn</em></a><em> has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. He is the author of </em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Technologys-Big-Bang-Yesterday-Tomorrow-ebook/dp/B0829C7XSF" rel="nofollow"><em>Technology’s Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore’s Law</em></a><em>, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at </em><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/3ee366d2beb18dea/Documents/InvestorPlace/danablankenhorn@gmail.com" rel="nofollow"><em>danablankenhorn@gmail.com</em></a><em>, tweet him at </em><a href="http://www.twitter.com/danablankenhorn" rel="nofollow"><em>@danablankenhorn</em></a><em>, or subscribe to his Substack </em><a href="https://danafblankenhorn.substack.com/" rel="nofollow"><em>https://danafblankenhorn.substack.com/</em></a><em>. </em></p> <div class="ipm-author-short-bio"> <p><a href="http://www.danablankenhorn.com/" rel="nofollow">Dana Blankenhorn</a> has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. He is the author of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Technologys-Big-Bang-Yesterday-Tomorrow-ebook/dp/B0829C7XSF" rel="nofollow">Technology’s Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore’s Law</a>, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Tweet him at <a href="http://www.twitter.com/danablankenhorn" rel="nofollow">@danablankenhorn</a>, connect with him on <a href="https://journa.host/@DanaBlankenhorn" rel="nofollow"> Mastodon</a> or subscribe to his <a href="https://danafblankenhorn.substack.com/" rel="nofollow">Substack</a>.</p> </div> </div> <div id="inline-doe" class="js-inline-doe-wrapper inline-doe-wrapper"> <div class="inline-doe-variation js-inline-doe-variation" data-variation="default" hidden="true"> <div class="inline-doe-cover"> <svg class="header-logo-title__image" width="261" height="32" viewBox="0 0 261 32" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M38.8652 7.49652H42.2492V25.7517H38.8652V7.49652ZM60.0112 7.49652H63.3142V25.7517H60.0921L50.9278 13.1733V25.7517H47.6248V7.49652H50.8469L60.0112 20.0749V7.49652ZM66.5201 7.49652H70.2279L75.4578 21.8955L80.7685 7.49652H84.3144L77.1417 25.7517H73.5957L66.5201 7.49652ZM87.4232 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