Mysteel：供需双弱天津镀锌板卷价格涨跌两难-我的钢铁网

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href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镀锌</a>板卷价格走势如何？笔者将从价格、价差、库存以及利润进行简要分析：</p> <p><strong>一、国民营价格中位价差收窄</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><img src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/13/6051fe079a524c9185f28e2617b12a17.png" alt="<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>：供需双弱天津镀锌板卷价格涨跌两难" width="523" height="296" /></strong></p> <p>如图所示，12月份天津市场国民营镀锌板卷价格震荡上行，价差也有所收窄，截止发稿，国营镀锌板卷价格4310元/吨，民营镀锌板卷价格4130元/吨，价差180元/吨，月环比均上涨60元/吨，年同比分别下跌780元/吨和480元/吨，可见当前市场价格处于近两年中位水平，主要原因是，今年市场需求不及去年，加之年前受冬储备货影响，市场资源累库明显，库存是前两年水平的1.5-2倍左右，且钢厂生产保持正常水平，市场供大于求，导致今年近一半多的时间都处于高库存、去化慢的境地，随着三季度开始，部分钢厂陆陆续续有出现检修减产的情况，加之四季度国营钢厂在品种钢订单上也有一定的好转，市场普材投放量进而有所减量，同时加速了库存去化速度，当前库存已处于近三年的低位水平，商家整体销售压力尚可，价格也得到一定支撑，而民营镀锌板卷资源受热卷期货盘面调整相对灵活，近期热卷期货盘面震荡下行，国民营价差也有所收窄，后续市场价格如何演绎，还需关注钢厂投放量及市场库存情况，笔者认为短期内价格或继续盘整运行，价差窄幅震荡调整为主。</p> <p><strong>二、库存处于近三年同期低位水平</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><strong><img src="https://img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/13/d2c2cccd47da4e7494da1932ec6b4931.png" alt="" width="522" height="295" /></strong></p> <p>从最新数据显示，截止12月12日统计华北地区镀锌板卷库存量为3.77万吨，较去年同期4.34万吨减少0.57万吨，减幅13.1%，且为近三年同期库存低位水平，现阶段库存压力尚可。在热卷期货盘面近期震荡走弱的带动下，加之市场需求表现疲软，现货成交难见起色。11月份钢厂结算价格较上一期小幅调整，但仍处于高位，与现货市场卖价存在倒挂的情况，商家12月份订货量基本维持低位水平，当月资源尚未集中到货，且表示销售并不理想，多以出售9-10月份的资源为主，当前仍处于亏损状态。12月份钢厂或放开普材接单量，但成交持续不佳促使商家订货积极性减弱，担心后市行情继续走空或结算成本高位再次出现亏损，操作上来看，还是偏谨慎为主，以补货为主，不再大量进行订货，后续库存或仍维持低位水平进行调整。</p> <p align="justify"><strong>三、民营利润处于盈亏边缘</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;" align="justify"><strong><img src="https://img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/13/9e53713421dd43f38c3df97848fa16c3.png" alt="" width="523" height="296" /></strong></p> <p align="justify">从<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>板卷到镀锌板卷的民营加工成本在550元/吨左右。从上图可以看出来，近两个月民营钢厂利润都处于盈利边缘。当前北方地区主流热卷厂商价格在3450-3630元/吨左右，而民营镀锌价格在3830-4130元/吨左右，价差最高可达680元/吨，民营钢厂或仍有盈利空间，加之国营钢厂普材市场投放有所减量，故市场民营镀锌板卷资源或仍保持高库存运行，部分民营资源或存在替代国营资源的情况。</p> <p align="justify"><strong>四、总结</strong></p> <p align="justify">价格方面，当前天津镀锌板卷价格处于三大主流区域高地，但当地商家反馈民营镀锌资源价格相对合理，国营资源价格偏高，主要原因是受资源投放量少及成本结算高的影响，而民营源跟随热卷期货盘面调整较灵活，导致当前国-民营价差及镀-热价差异常，后续能否恢复需关注市场资源量及热轧板卷价格。库存方面，目前天津市场大户库存量基本在1-2万吨左右，处于中等偏低水平，随着钢厂在普材投放量上有所减少，后期或冲击中小户商家，整体库存或出现继续降库的情况。利润方面，民营镀锌板卷仍有利润空间，不少终端下游也陆续从使用国营资源替换成民营资源，后续民营资源或加大生产力度投放市场。综合来看，预计明年1月份天津锌板卷价格或将继续窄幅震荡运行为主。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：熊文强 021-26093299 </br> 资讯监督：雍南川 021-26093774 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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