Document Zbl 1520.62179

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The commonly used contact-tracing-based estimation of incubation distribution is highly influenced by the individuals’ judgment on the possible date of exposure, and might lead to significant errors. On the other hand, interval censoring-based methods are able to utilize a much larger set of traveling data but may encounter biased sampling problems. The distribution of generation time is usually approximated by observed serial intervals. However, it may result in a biased estimation of generation time, especially when the disease is infectious during incubation. In this paper, the theory from renewal process is partially adopted by considering the incubation period as the interarrival time, and the duration between departure from Wuhan and onset of symptoms as the mixture of forward time and interarrival time with censored intervals. In addition, a consistent estimator for the distribution of generation time based on incubation period and serial interval is proposed for incubation-infectious diseases. A real case application to the current outbreak of COVID-19 is implemented. We find that the incubation period has a median of 8.50 days (95% confidence interval [CI] [7.22; 9.15]). The basic reproduction number in the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak based on the proposed generation time estimation is estimated to be 2.96 (95% CI [2.15; 3.86]).<br class="zbmathjax-paragraph">{© 2020 The International Biometric Society}</div> <div class="clear"></div> <br> <div class="citations"><div class="clear"><a href="/?q=rf%3A7750882">Cited in <strong>6</strong> Documents</a></div></div> <div class="classification"> <h3>MSC:</h3> <table><tr> <td> <a class="mono" href="/classification/?q=cc%3A62P10" title="MSC2020">62P10</a> </td> <td class="space"> Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis </td> </tr></table> </div><div class="keywords"> <h3>Keywords:</h3><a href="/?q=ut%3Adeconvolution">deconvolution</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Ainterval+censoring">interval censoring</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Amixture+distribution">mixture distribution</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Arenewal+process">renewal process</a>; <a href="/?q=ut%3Aserial+interval">serial interval</a></div> <div class="software"> <h3>Software:</h3><a href="/software/23170">GitHub</a></div>  <div class="modal fade" id="metadataModal" tabindex="-1" role="dialog" aria-labelledby="myModalLabel"> <div class="modal-dialog" role="document"> <div class="modal-content"> <div class="modal-header"> <button type="button" class="close" data-dismiss="modal" aria-label="Close"><span aria-hidden="true">×</span></button> <h4 class="modal-title" id="myModalLabel">Cite</h4> </div> <div class="modal-body"> <div class="form-group"> <label for="select-output" class="control-label">Format</label> <select id="select-output" class="form-control" aria-label="Select Metadata format"></select> </div> <div class="form-group"> <label for="metadataText" class="control-label">Result</label> <textarea class="form-control" id="metadataText" rows="10" style="min-width: 100%;max-width: 100%"></textarea> </div> <div id="metadata-alert" class="alert alert-danger" role="alert" style="display: none;">  </div> </div> <div class="modal-footer"> <button type="button" class="btn btn-primary" onclick="copyMetadata()">Copy to clipboard</button> <button type="button" class="btn btn-default" data-dismiss="modal">Close</button> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="functions clearfix"> <div class="function">  <a type="button" class="btn btn-default btn-xs pdf" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#metadataModal" data-itemtype="Zbl" data-itemname="Zbl 1520.62179" data-ciurl="/ci/07750882" data-biburl="/bibtex/07750882.bib" data-amsurl="/amsrefs/07750882.bib" data-xmlurl="/xml/07750882.xml" > Cite </a> <a class="btn btn-default btn-xs pdf" data-container="body" type="button" href="/pdf/07750882.pdf" title="Zbl 1520.62179 as PDF">Review PDF</a> </div> <div class="fulltexts"> <span class="fulltext">Full Text:</span> <a class="btn btn-default btn-xs" type="button" href="https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.13325" aria-label="DOI for “Estimation of incubation period and generation time based on observed length-biased epidemic cohort with censoring for COVID-19 outbreak in China”" title="10.1111/biom.13325">DOI</a> </div> <div class="sfx" style="float: right;"> </div> </div> <div class="references"> <h3>References:</h3> <table><tr> <td>[1]</td> <td class="space">Anastassiou, G., Handbook of Analytic‐Computational Methods Applied Mathematics, 2000, Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC · <a href="/0954.65001" class="nowrap">Zbl 0954.65001</a></td> </tr><tr> <td>[2]</td> <td class="space">Backer, J. 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